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应急决策知识供给的敏捷性评价方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
决策者在应急决策过程中需要具有高敏捷性的知识支持.量化知识供给的敏捷性可以有效地评价突发事件的应急处置水平.本文从应急反应参与者所构成的知识交互供需网链角度出发,提出了一种基于知识供应通路的敏捷性评价方法(PAE).该方法量化了单个应急反应部门向上级部门提供应急决策知识的供给能力,求得每个环节到最终决策者的知识供应通路,从而根据每一条知识供应通路的敏捷性来评价供应网链的敏捷性.通过对禽流感应急反应过程的仿真实验,表明了该评价方法能比较客观地评价应急反应过程中向决策者供给知识的敏捷性. 相似文献
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科学合理制定相互依赖关键基础设施网络(Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Network, ICINs)遭灾后毁坏组件的修复计划是其安全管理的至关重要内容。本文首先明确了ICINs的韧性测度,分析了其灾后修复策略;然后基于网路流理论,以最大化ICINs的韧性为目标,构建了在有限灾后修复资源约束下,ICINs的灾后修复任务选择与调度的混合整数规划模型,并设计了遗传算法进行求解;最后通过不同规模的用例实验对模型和遗传算法进行了测试。研究表明:(1)该模型具有解决相关问题的可行性与有效性;(2)设计的遗传算法能获得质量较高的满意解,且对于大规模问题,遗传算法的求解时间与求解结果优于Cplex软件;(3)将网络之间的功能与空间相互依赖同时纳入模型中,能使ICINs的韧性达到更高。研究可为ICINs的灾后修复决策提供辅助。 相似文献
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Adopting the initial load of a node j to be Lj = [kj ∑mεГkm)]^α with kj and Fj being the degree of the node j and the set of its neighbouring nodes respectively, we propose a cascading model based on a local preferential redistribution rule of the load after removing a node. Assuming that a failed node leads only to a redistribution of the load passing through it to its neighbouring nodes, we explore the response of scale-free networks subject to two different attack strategies on nodes and find some interesting and counterintuitive results in our cascading model. On the one hand, unexpectedly, tile attack on the nodes with the lowest degree is more harmful than the attack on the highest degree nodes when α〈1/2. On the other hand, when α = 1/2, the effects of two attacks for the robustness against cascading failures are almost identical. In addition, the numerical simulations are also verified by the theoretical analysis. These results may be very helpful for real-life networks to protect the key nodes selected effectively and to avoid cascading-failure-induced disasters. 相似文献
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