岭回归和核主成分回归在消除共线性中的实证分析及比较

检测和解决多元回归分析中的多重共线性问题具有重要意义.本文采用岭回归(RR)和核主成分回归(KCPR)对同一数据进行回归分析,使用方差膨胀因子(VIF)和条件指数(CI)作为共线性诊断的量度,并对回归模型结果进行比较.经过实证分析,发现这两种回归方法都能很好地消除多重共线性,总的来说核主成分回归的对内拟合效果要优于岭回归.但是这两种方法的参数选择的不同对回归模型的好坏都有巨大影响,需要进一步分析判断.     

PLS回归在消除多重共线性中的作用

本文详细阐述了解释变量的多重共线性在回归建模与分析中的危害作用，并指出目前常用的几种消除多重线性影响的方法，以及它们的不足之处。本文结合实证研究指出：利用一种新的建模思路—ＰＬＳ回归，可以更好地消除多重共线性对建模准确性与可靠性所带来的影响     

国际资本结构动态决定因素的实证研究——基于制造业上市公司的面板数据

选取12个国家地区制造业上市公司2004-2008年的公司特征数据和国家宏观经济指标,研究国际间资本结构动态决定的宏观与微观因素的协整作用关系.主要发现有:一是发达国家对于现代资本结构理论假设条件和关系诠释比发展中国家更为贴近,发展中国家公司特征因素与目标资本结构的关系异象根源于特定经济制度背景;二是克服截面数据POOL回归分析法忽视国别差异因素的缺陷,通过国别哑变量和沃尔德F统计量检验得出,不同国家的公司资本结构微观特征决定因素存在定量上的差异;三是选用能够克服异方差问题的国别哑变量系数标准化为权重的加权最小二乘法回归表明,国家宏观经济法律因素直接或者通过公司特征指标间接作用于国际资本结构决策.     

基于岭回归模型大数据最优子抽样算法研究

随着大数据时代的来临,为了提高计算效率,Wang等(2018)提出基于logistic回归的最优子抽样算法,在保证参数估计精度的前提下,节省了大量的运算时间.为解决变量间的多重共线性,文章提出基于岭回归模型的最优子抽样算法,并证明岭回归模型中参数估计的一致性与渐近正态性.利用数值模拟与实证分析对最优子抽样算法进行评估,...     

比例响应数据的分位数回归建模

由于比例响应数据具有有界性、偏态性和异方差性等特征,基于常规的回归建模方法往往不尽人如意。本文基于分位数方法研究比例响应数据的回归建模及其统计推断问题,重点研究了半连续型比例数据的分位数估计方法,并给出了估计的大样本性质。数值模拟研究和实例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。     

左截断数据下非参数回归模型的复合分位数回归估计

利用局部多项式方法研究了误差具有异方差结构的非参数回归模型,在左截断数据下构造了回归函数的复合分位数回归估计,并得到了该估计的渐近正态性结果,最后通过模拟,在服从一些非正态分布的误差下,得到该估计比局部线性估计更有效.     

苏州外资制造业经济增长因素贡献率测算模型与分析

在经济增长因素分析中,人们常用生产函数来分析经济增长过程,测算各要素对经济增长的贡献率.本文利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数给出苏州外资制造业经济增长的六个影响因素贡献率测算模型与分析,由于六个影响因素之间存在多重共线性,为消除多重共线性,使模型合理,本文使用主成分回归建立模型,结果令人满意。     

删失数据下回归函数的加权局部复合分位数 回归估计

在右删失数据下,研究了误差具有异方差结构的非参数回归模型,利用局部多项式方法构造了回归函数的加权局部复合分位数回归估计,并得到了该估计的渐近正态性结果,最后通过模拟,当误差为重尾分布时,该估计比局部多项式估计以及核估计表现得更好.     

纵向数据半参数回归模型的最小二乘局部线性估计

本文考虑纵向数据半参数回归模型:Yij=XiTjβ+g(Tij)+iεj,基于最小二乘法和局部线性拟合的方法建立了模型中参数分量β,回归函数g(.)和误差方差σ2的估计,在适当条件下给出了估计量的相合性,通过模拟研究说明了该方法在有限样本情况下具有良好的性质。     

面板数据交互固定效应模型的方差分量检验

研究了面板数据交互固定效应模型中方差分量的检验问题.首先依据模型中误差项的估计构造辅助回归模型,然后根据该辅助回归构造检验统计量,对模型中的异方差性进行检验.进一步,通过构造不同的辅助回归模型和检验统计量可以判别异方差的来源.在一定正则条件下,得到了检验统计量在原假设和备择假设下的渐近分布,并说明所提出的检验方法不依赖于误差分布.最后,通过模拟研究对本文的检验方法进行评价,说明所提检验方法是有效的.     

Testing heteroscedasticity in nonparametric regression models based on residual analysis

The importance of detecting heteroscedasticity in regression analysis is widely recognized because efficient inference for the regression function requires that heteroscedasticity should be taken into account. In this paper, a simple test for heteroscedasticity is proposed in nonparametric regression based on residual analysis. Furthermore, some simulations with a comparison with Dette and Munk＇s method are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed test. The results demonstrate that the method in this paper performs quite satisfactorily and is much more powerful than Dette and Munk＇s method in some cases.     

Classroom note: A model for considering multicollinearity

In this work a simple and convenient model is proposed for studying features of the multicollinearity effect in regression analysis. Using some reasonable approximations a multivariate regression is reduced to a kind of bivariate regression by each predictor. This approach yields some criteria for identifying the cases of evident multicollinearity, and leads to a better understanding of properties of multiple regression.     

A mesh simplification strategy for a spatial regression analysis over the cortical surface of the brain

We present a new mesh simplification technique developed for a statistical analysis of a large data set distributed on a generic complex surface, topologically equivalent to a sphere. In particular, we focus on an application to cortical surface thickness data. The aim of this approach is to produce a simplified mesh which does not distort the original data distribution so that the statistical estimates computed over the new mesh exhibit good inferential properties. To do this, we propose an iterative technique that, for each iteration, contracts the edge of the mesh with the lowest value of a cost function. This cost function takes into account both the geometry of the surface and the distribution of the data on it. After the data are associated with the simplified mesh, they are analyzed via a spatial regression model for non-planar domains. In particular, we resort to a penalized regression method that first conformally maps the simplified cortical surface mesh into a planar region. Then, existing planar spatial smoothing techniques are extended to non-planar domains by suitably including the flattening phase. The effectiveness of the entire process is numerically demonstrated via a simulation study and an application to cortical surface thickness data.     

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??In the additive regression models, the single-index model is considered commonly for high dimensional regression analysis. The specification of this model that it is more flexible compared with a parametric model, and it avoids the curse of dimensionality because the single-index reduces the dimensionality of a standard variable vector (x in the multi-regression) to a univariate index (\beta^\T X in the single-index model). In this paper, we developed a single-index regression model with a functional errors' term that serves in checking the heteroscedasticity. Since the efficient inference of a regression model demands that heteroscedasticity is regarded when it exists, this paper presents the assumptions of testing variance constancy in single-index models. The test statistic is assessing the variance homogeneity stated as a combination of Levene's test and the theories of ANOVA for the infinite factor levels. The test statistic in the simulation studies displays appropriately in all situations compared to a well-known method and applies to a real dataset.     

Testing the Heteroscedasticity in Single-Index Model

In the additive regression models, the single-index model is considered commonly for high dimensional regression analysis. The specification of this model that it is more flexible compared with a parametric model, and it avoids the curse of dimensionality because the single-index reduces the dimensionality of a standard variable vector (x in the multi-regression) to a univariate index (\beta^\T X in the single-index model). In this paper, we developed a single-index regression model with a functional errors' term that serves in checking the heteroscedasticity. Since the efficient inference of a regression model demands that heteroscedasticity is regarded when it exists, this paper presents the assumptions of testing variance constancy in single-index models. The test statistic is assessing the variance homogeneity stated as a combination of Levene's test and the theories of ANOVA for the infinite factor levels. The test statistic in the simulation studies displays appropriately in all situations compared to a well-known method and applies to a real dataset.     

Learning from imprecise and fuzzy observations: Data disambiguation through generalized loss minimization

Methods for analyzing or learning from “fuzzy data” have attracted increasing attention in recent years. In many cases, however, existing methods (for precise, non-fuzzy data) are extended to the fuzzy case in an ad-hoc manner, and without carefully considering the interpretation of a fuzzy set when being used for modeling data. Distinguishing between an ontic and an epistemic interpretation of fuzzy set-valued data, and focusing on the latter, we argue that a “fuzzification” of learning algorithms based on an application of the generic extension principle is not appropriate. In fact, the extension principle fails to properly exploit the inductive bias underlying statistical and machine learning methods, although this bias, at least in principle, offers a means for “disambiguating” the fuzzy data. Alternatively, we therefore propose a method which is based on the generalization of loss functions in empirical risk minimization, and which performs model identification and data disambiguation simultaneously. Elaborating on the fuzzification of specific types of losses, we establish connections to well-known loss functions in regression and classification. We compare our approach with related methods and illustrate its use in logistic regression for binary classification.     

关于漏失数据弥补的几点意见

漏失数据的弥补,通常采用使误差项的平方和达到最小的原则来确定,这样弥补的数据,有时会出现负值等异常情况.本文提出采用相邻小区的平均值来代替漏失数据,或用回归分析的方法分析试验结果,同样能得到最小二乘法相一致的结论,但不会出现负值.     

A Graphical Method of Exploring the Mean Structure in Longitudinal Data Analysis

Abstract

In a longitudinal study, individuals are observed over some period of time. The investigator wishes to model the responses over this time as a function of various covariates measured on these individuals. The times of measurement may be sparse and not coincident across individuals. When the covariate values are not extensively replicated, it is very difficult to propose a parametric model linking the response to the covariates because plots of the raw data are of little help. Although the response curve may only be observed at a few points, we consider the underlying curve y(t). We fit a regression model y(t) = x ^Tβ(t) + ε(t) and use the coefficient functions β(t) to suggest a suitable parametric form. Estimates of y(t) are constructed by simple interpolation, and appropriate weighting is used in the regression. We demonstrate the method on simulated data to show its ability to recover the true structure and illustrate its application to some longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.     

股票综合评价的符号数据PCA方法

符号数据分析是一种新兴的数据挖掘技术,区间数是最常用的一种符号数据。研究应用区间型符号数据的PCA方法来评价股票的市场综合表现问题。首先介绍了符号数据分析的基本理论。接下来研究了区间数据样本的经验描述统计量的计算,并基于经验相关矩阵,给出了区间主成分分析的算法,该算法最终得到区间数表达形式的主成分取值。最后选取上海证券交易市场20支股票在某一周上的交易数据,进行了实证研究,基于区间主成分得分的矩形图表示,将20支股票按其市场综合表现分成了四类。     

高维异方差高斯混合罚模型聚类

罚模型聚类实现了在聚类过程中精简变量的目标,同时如何识别聚类的有效变量成了一个新的问题.在这个问题上,已有的研究有成对罚模型,模型处理了各类数据同方差的情况.考察了异方差情况下的变量选择问题,针对异方差数据提出了两种新的模型,并给出模型的解和算法.模拟数据分析结果表明,异方差数据上两个新模型都有更好的表现.