一种概率分布的极值分位数的最优估计

在本文中, 我们构造了一种新的极值分位数估计, 给出了估计量的极限性质. 同时, 在渐近二阶矩最小的准则下, 利用子样本自助法给出了计算所构造的极值分位数估计时的样本点分割方法, 从理论上证明了这一极限结果, 说明了这种分割在渐近二阶矩最小的准则下是渐近最优分割, 同时提出了自适应的样本点分割的自助算法.     

ɾʧ�ع�ģ����һ��LASSO�ͱ���ѡ��͹��Ʒ���

删失回归模型是一种很重要的模型,它在计量经济学中有着广泛的应用. 然而,它的变量选择问题在现今的参考文献中研究的比较少.本文提出了一个LASSO型变量选择和估计方法,称之为多样化惩罚$L_1$限制方法, 简称为DPLC. 另外,我们给出了非0回归系数估计的大样本渐近性质. 最后,大量的模拟研究表明了DPLC方法和一般的最优子集选择方法在变量选择和估计方面有着相同的能力.     

删失回归模型中一个LASSO型变量选择和估计方法(英文)

删失回归模型是一种很重要的模型,它在计量经济学中有着广泛的应用.然而,它的变量选择问题在现今的参考文献中研究的比较少.本文提出了一个LASSO型变量选择和估计方法,称之为多样化惩罚L1限制方法,简称为DPLC.另外,我们给出了非0回归系数估计的大样本渐近性质.最后,大量的模拟研究表明了DPLC方法和一般的最优子集选择方法在变量选择和估计方面有着相同的能力.     

利用CATE曲线选择最优治疗方案（英文）

本文基于因果推断理论,提出根据病人的生物标记物进行最优治疗方案选择的统计方法.这种方法是基于CATE (conditional average treatment effect)曲线以及CATE曲线的置信带(SCB)的. CSTE曲线表示给定生物标记物(协变量)的条件下,处理组的条件平均处理效应.同时, CATE曲线及其SCB可以被用于对特定的治疗方案选择适宜的病人.文中利用B样条方法估计CATE曲线及其CSB,并推导了其近似大样本性质.文中还通过模拟比较研究了CATE曲线的置信带的有限样本性质,并阐述了CATE曲线及其置信带在真实数据中如何选择最优治疗方案.     

测量误差模型的自适应LASSO变量选择方法研究

本文研究测量误差模型的自适应LASSO(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator)变量选择和系数估计问题.首先分别给出协变量有测量误差时的线性模型和部分线性模型自适应LASSO参数估计量,在一些正则条件下研究估计量的渐近性质,并且证明选择合适的调整参数,自适应LASSO参数估计量具有oracle性质.其次讨论估计的实现算法及惩罚参数和光滑参数的选择问题.最后通过模拟和一个实际数据分析研究了自适应LASSO变量选择方法的表现,结果表明,变量选择和参数估计效果良好.     

基于L_p正则化的自适应稀疏group lasso研究

基于稀疏group lasso的思想和adaptive lasso的优点,提出更具一般性的Lp正则化的自适应稀疏group lasso,并对其高维统计性质进行了研究.通过对正则子、损失函数的性质和正则参数的选择的分析,最终得到基于Lp正则化的自适应稀疏group lasso非渐近误差界估计.     

修正的Pickands估计样本点分割的自助估计方法

在本文中,我们着重研究了极值指数的修正的Pickands型估计的样本点分割方法．我们在渐近二阶矩最小的准则下,利用子样本自助法给出了修正的Pickands型估计的样本点分割方法,从理论上证明了该估计的大样本性质,说明了这种分割在渐近二阶矩最小的准则下是渐近最优分割,同时提出了自适应的样本点分割的自助算法．     

系数函数光滑度互不相同的变系数模型的一步估计法

该文提出了一种一步估计方法用以估计变系数模型中具有互不相同光滑度的未知函数, 所有未知函数和它们的导数的估计量由 一次极小化得到. 给出了估计量的渐近性质, 包括渐近偏差、方差和渐近分布, 一步估计量被证明达到了最优收敛速度.     

变系数模型中的逐元B-Spline估计法

给出了一种用于估计变系数模型中未知函数的逐元B-Spline方法,建立了估计量的局部渐近偏差,方差和渐近正态分布,开发了一种快速选择估计量窗宽的方法,通过Monte Carlo模拟研究了估计量的有限样本性质.     

变系数模型中的逐元B-Spline估计法

给出了一种用于估计变系数模型中未知函数的逐元B-Spline方法,建立了估计量的局部渐近偏差,方差和渐近正态分布,开发了一种快速选择估计量窗宽的方法,通过Monte Carlo模拟研究了估计量的有限样本性质.     

Optimal adaptive generalized Pólya urn design for multi-arm clinical trials

A class of optimal adaptive multi-arm clinical trial designs is proposed based on an extended generalized Pólya urn (GPU) model. The design is applicable to both the qualitative and quantitative responses and achieves, asymptotically, some pre-specified optimality criterion. Such criterion is specified by a functional of the response distributions and is implemented through the relationship between the design matrix and its first eigenvector. The asymptotic properties of the design are studied using the existing methods on GPU. Some examples for commonly used clinical designs are given as illustration.     

BATE curve in assessment of clinical utility of predictive biomarkers

In this paper,for time-to-event data,we propose a new statistical framework for casual inference in evaluating clinical utility of predictive biomarkers and in selecting an optimal treatment for a particular patient.This new casual framework is based on a new concept,called Biomarker Adjusted Treatment Effect (BATE) curve.The BATE curve can be used for assessing clinical utility of a predictive biomarker,for designing a subsequent confirmation trial,and for guiding clinical practice.We then propose semi-parametric methods for estimating the BATE curves of biomarkers and establish asymptotic results of the proposed estimators for the BATE curves.We also conduct extensive simulation studies to evaluate finite-sample properties of the proposed estimation methods.Finally,we illustrate the application of the proposed method in a real-world data set.     

Adaptive control of constrained Markov chains: Criteria and policies

We consider the constrained optimization of a finite-state, finite action Markov chain. In the adaptive problem, the transition probabilities are assumed to be unknown, and no prior distribution on their values is given. We consider constrained optimization problems in terms of several cost criteria which are asymptotic in nature. For these criteria we show that it is possible to achieve the same optimal cost as in the non-adaptive case.We first formulate a constrained optimization problem under each of the cost criteria and establish the existence of optimal stationary policies.Since the adaptive problem is inherently non-stationary, we suggest a class ofAsymptotically Stationary (AS) policies, and show that, under each of the cost criteria, the costs of an AS policy depend only on its limiting behavior. This property implies that there exist optimal AS policies. A method for generating adaptive policies is then suggested, which leads to strongly consistent estimators for the unknown transition probabilities. A way to guarantee that these policies are also optimal is to couple them with the adaptive algorithm of [3]. This leads to optimal policies for each of the adaptive constrained optimization problems under discussion.This work was supported in part through United States-Israel Binational Science Foundation Grant BSF 85-00306.     

Asymptotic results on a class of adaptive multi-treatment designs

The play-the-winner (PW) rule is an important method in clinical trials where patients can be assigned to one of the two treatments. In the PW rule, the probability of the next patient to be assigned to a particular treatment only depends on the response of the current patient. In this paper, we consider a general kind of PW rule for multi-treatment adaptive designs, in which the probability that a treatment is assigned to the next patient depends upon both the response of the previous patient and an estimated parameter, e.g., the observed success rate. Using this kind of adaptive designs, more information of previous stages are used to update the model at each stage, and more patients may be assigned to better treatments. The strong consistency and the asymptotic normality are established for the allocation proportions.     

Adaptive Stabilization of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems

The purpose of this paper is to study the problem of asymptotic stabilization in probability of nonlinear stochastic differential systems with unknown parameters. With this aim, we introduce the concept of an adaptive control Lyapunov function for stochastic systems and we use the stochastic version of Artstein's theorem to design an adaptive stabilizer. In this framework the problem of adaptive stabilization of a nonlinear stochastic system is reduced to the problem of asymptotic stabilization in probability of a modified system. The design of an adaptive control Lyapunov function is illustrated by the example of adaptively quadratically stabilizable in probability stochastic differential systems. Accepted 9 December 1996     

Sharp asymptotics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis></Subscript> approximation error for interpolation on block partitions

Adaptive approximation (or interpolation) takes into account local variations in the behavior of the given function, adjusts the approximant depending on it, and hence yields the smaller error of approximation. The question of constructing optimal approximating spline for each function proved to be very hard. In fact, no polynomial time algorithm of adaptive spline approximation can be designed and no exact formula for the optimal error of approximation can be given. Therefore, the next natural question would be to study the asymptotic behavior of the error and construct asymptotically optimal sequences of partitions. In this paper we provide sharp asymptotic estimates for the error of interpolation by splines on block partitions in \mathbbR^d{\mathbb{R}^d} . We consider various projection operators to define the interpolant and provide the analysis of the exact constant in the asymptotics as well as its explicit form in certain cases.     

An optimal response-adaptive design with dual constraints

The article deals with an optimal response-adaptive design for allocating patients among two competing treatments in a phase III clinical trial. An optimal response-adaptive target is developed for a general class of response distributions subject to two clinically relevant constraints. Various theoretical and numerical properties of the proposed procedure are investigated and compared with some existing competitors. A data study is also included for the assessment of the proposed procedure in real situation.     

Hybrid extragradient proximal algorithm coupled with parametric approximation and penalty/barrier methods

In this article we study the hybrid extragradient method coupled with approximation and penalty schemes for convex minimization problems. Under certain hypotheses, which include, for example, the case of Tikhonov regularization, we prove asymptotic convergence of the method to the solution set of our minimization problem. When we use schemes of penalization or barrier, we can show asymptotic convergence using the well-known fast/slow parameterization techniques and exploiting the existence and finite length of an optimal path.