一个中小企业融资再保险的定价模型

讨论聚合风险的最优再保险问题,考虑n种索赔次数相关的险种构成的总体,在均值保费计算原理下的比例再保险模型。使得分出公司期望收益一定的情况下,以风险(方差表示)达到最小为目标函数而给出了最优分出比。     

基于混合Ⅰ型删失数据的威布尔模型精确推断（英文）

威布尔分布是可靠性和寿命测试试验中常用的模型.本文中,我们考虑了基于混合Ⅰ型删失数据的威布尔模型精确推断.我们得到了威布尔分布未知参数最大似然估计的精确分布以及基于精确分布的置信区间.由于精确分布函数较为复杂,我们也给出了未知参数的另外几种置信区间,比如,基于近似方法的置信区间,Bootstrap置信区间.为了评价本文的方法,我们给出了一些数值模拟的结果.     

求解随机二阶锥互补问题的期望值模型及其近似问题的收敛性分析

利用二阶锥互补函数φ_(NR)给出求解随机二阶锥互补问题的确定期望值(EV)模型.由于该模型的目标函数非光滑,利用光滑化方法给出该模型的光滑化近似问题.当期望值可以求得时,考虑了光滑近似问题的收敛性结果.当期望值不易求得时,利用样本均值近似方法给出光滑化样本均值近似问题,并考虑了当光滑参数不变的情况下,光滑化样本均值近似问题的收敛性结果.     

最优成数再保险决策模型研究

根据期望值计算原理下,给出了由n种索赔次数相关的相关险种构成的总体最优成数再保险函数.     

二参数广义Rayleigh分布

为了研究某些工程过程的寿命,需要一个能够适应这些过程性质的寿命模型.与简单模型相比,基于寿命分布的广义模型在建模过程中更具有直观的适用性和吸引力.本文介绍一个二参数广义Rayleigh分布,推导出了其矩生成函数和k阶矩的表达式,通过对样本点进行归一化,得到了它的近似分布函数、概率密度函数、生存函数、风险率函数等.在此基...     

基于混合Ⅱ型删失数据的Weibull模型精确推断和可接受抽样计划(英文)

本文考虑基于混合Ⅱ型删失数据的Weibull模型精确推断和可接受抽样计划.得到威布尔分布未知参数最大似然估计的精确分布以及基于精确分布的置信区间.由于精确分布函数较为复杂,给出未知参数的另外几种置信区间,基于近似方法的置信区间.为了评价本文的方法,给出一些数值模拟的结果.且讨论了可靠性中的可接受抽样计划问题.利用参数最大似然估计的精确分布,给出一个可接受抽样计划的执行程序和数值模拟结果.     

多维对称随机变量分布函数的充要条件

讨论了多维对称随机变量的若干性质,阐明其分量仍是对称随机变量,在此基础上,进一步给出多维对称随机变量分布函数的一个充分必要条件.     

一类相依双险种风险模型的罚金折现期望函数

考虑索赔到达具有相依性的一类双险种风险模型,其中第一类险种的索赔计数过程为Poisson过程,第二类险种的索赔计数过程为其p-稀疏过程与广义Erlang(2)过程的和,利用更新论证得到了此风险模型的罚金折现期望函数满足的微积分方程及其Laplace变换的表达式.并就索赔额均服从指数分布的情形,给出了罚金函数及破产概率的精确表达式.     

关于负超几何分布期望与方差算法的注记

研究了非还原取样模型中负超几何随机变量的联合分布,得到了若干有用的推论.据此给出了负超几何分布的期望和方差的一种分解算法.     

超几何分布的数字特征和概率计算的探讨

用定义法、性质法、概率母函数法三种方法探索了超几何分布的数学期望和方差的求法,同时又给出了超几何分布、二项分布、泊松分布和正态分布之间的近似关系,从而解决了超几何分布的概率计算问题.     

Identifying Kinds of Reasoning in Collective Argumentation

We combine Peirce’s rule, case, and result with Toulmin’s data, claim, and warrant to differentiate between deductive, inductive, abductive, and analogical reasoning within collective argumentation. In this theoretical article, we illustrate these kinds of reasoning in episodes of collective argumentation using examples from one teacher’s practice. Examining different kinds of reasoning in collective argumentation can inform how students engage in generating and examining hypotheses using inductive and abductive reasoning and move toward the deductive reasoning required for proof. Mathematics educators can build on their understanding of these kinds of reasoning to support students in reasoning in productive ways.     

Sensitivity of risk measures with respect to the normal approximation of total claim distributions

A simple and commonly used method to approximate the total claim distribution of a (possibly weakly dependent) insurance collective is the normal approximation. In this article, we investigate the error made when the normal approximation is plugged in a fairly general distribution-invariant risk measure. We focus on the rate of convergence of the error relative to the number of clients, we specify the relative error’s asymptotic distribution, and we illustrate our results by means of a numerical example. Regarding the risk measure, we take into account distortion risk measures as well as distribution-invariant coherent risk measures.     

Optimal investment policy of an insurance firm

In this paper we consider an investment problem by an insurance firm. As in the classical model of collective risk, it is assumed that premium payments are received deterministically from policyholders at a constant rate, while the claim process is determined by a compound Poisson process. We introduce a conversion mechanism of funds from cash into investments and vice versa. Contrary to the conventional collective risk model we do not assume a ruin barrier. Instead we introduce conversion costs to account for the problems implicit in reaching the zero boundary. The objective of the firm is to maximize its net profit by selecting an appropriate investment strategy. A diffusion approximation is suggested in order to obtain tractable results for a general claim size distribution.     

负二项分布的优良特性及其在风险管理中的应用

孟生旺．负二项分布的优良特性及其在风险管理中的应用．数理统计与管理，１９９８，１７（２），９～１２．负二项分布之所以在风险管理中被广泛应用是由其优良特性所决定的。本文主要讨论了其中三个方面的问题：第一，负二项分布在描述风险集体中任意风险的索赔次数时表现为伽玛分布对泊松分布按参数变化的加权平均；第二，负二项分布在描述某些风险的累积索赔额时具有复合泊松分布的形式；第三，负二项分布是当风险的索赔频率强度之间存在正向传染时索赔次数的分布     

On the efficient evaluation of ruin probabilities for completely monotone claim distributions

In this paper we propose a highly accurate approximation procedure for ruin probabilities in the classical collective risk model, which is based on a quadrature/rational approximation procedure proposed in [2]. For a certain class of claim size distributions (which contains the completely monotone distributions) we give a theoretical justification for the method. We also show that under weaker assumptions on the claim size distribution, the method may still perform reasonably well in some cases. This in particular provides an efficient alternative to a related method proposed in [3]. A number of numerical illustrations for the performance of this procedure is provided for both completely monotone and other types of random variables.     

The collective reserving model

This paper sets out a model for analysing claims development data, which we call the collective reserving model (CRM). The model is defined on the individual claim level and it produces separate IBNR and RBNS reserve estimators at the collective level without using any approximations. The CRM is based on ideas from a paper by Verrall, Nielsen and Jessen (VNJ) from 2010 in which a model is proposed that relies on a claim giving rise to a single payment. This is generalised by the CRM to the case of multiple payments per claim. All predictors of outstanding claims payments for the VNJ model are shown to hold for this new model. Moreover, the quasi-Poisson GLM estimation framework will be applicable as well, but without using an approximation. Furthermore, analytical expressions for the variance of the total outstanding claims payments are given, with a subdivision on IBNR and RBNS claims. To quantify the effect of allowing only one payment per claim, the model is related and compared to the VNJ model, in particular by looking at variance inequalities. The double chain ladder (DCL) method is discussed as an estimation method for this new model and it is shown that both the GLM- and DCL-based estimators are consistent in terms of an exposure measure. Lastly, both of these methods are shown to asymptotically reproduce the regular chain ladder reserve estimator when restricting predictions to the lower right triangle without the tail, motivating the chain ladder technique as a large-exposure approximation of this model.     

Tails of random sums of a heavy-tailed number of light-tailed terms

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the collective risk model, where the total claim size in a portfolio is the sum of a random number of claims. If the tail of the claim number is heavier than the tail of the claim sizes, then under certain conditions the tail of the total claim size does not change asymptotically if the individual claim sizes are replaced by their expectations. The conditions allow the claim number distribution to be of consistent variation or to be in the domain of attraction of a Gumbel distribution with a mean excess function that grows to infinity sufficiently fast. Moreover, the claim number is not necessarily required to be independent of the claim sizes.     

总理赔额分布函数的界值及数值计算

根据单个保单理赔额分布函数F(x)的一些特殊性质,研究了开放个别风险模型在保单个数N为负二项分布下,总理赔额分布函数FS(x)对任意x的界值问题,得到一些实用的、便于数值计算的界值结果.     

一类推广的复合Poisson-Geometric相依风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类推广的复合Poisson—Geometric风险相依模型．利用盈余过程的鞅性,得到了破产概率公式以及破产概率所满足的积分方程和Cramer—Lundberg逼近．最后给出了索赔额服从指数分布时Cramer-Lundberg逼近的精确表达式．     

跳—扩散过程下带实业项目的保险最优决策

为了考虑一类带有实业项目投资的保险最优投资策略问题,假定保险公司盈余服从跳-扩散过程,在最小化保险公司破产概率准则下,使用动态规划原理建立了线性消费率下保险资金最优投资选择模型,通过求解HJB方程得到了最优投资决策和最小破产概率的解析式解,最后分析了线性消费、索赔强度、索赔额以及实业项目投资额对最小化破产概率和最优投资策略的影响.