非参数回归中方差变点的小波检测(英文)

本文主要研究了非参数回归模型中方差函数的变点, 利用小波方法构造的检验量来检测方差中的变点,建立了这些检验量的渐近分布, 并且运用这些检验量构造了方差变点的位置和跳跃幅度的估计, 给出了这些估计的渐近性质, 并进一步通过随机模拟验证了本文方法在有限样本下的性质.     

误差为鞅差序列的回归函数估计的收敛速度

当误差为鞅差序列时,研究了固定设计点列情形下非参数回归函数一般权函数的非参数估计,并在一些基本条件下给出了估计的一致最优强收敛速度.     

误差为鞅差序列的回归函数估计的收敛速度

当误差为鞅差序列时,研究固定设计点列情形下非参数回归函数一般权函数的非参数估计,并在一些基本条件下给出了估计的一致最优强收敛速度．     

至多一个变点的Γ分布的统计推断及在金融中的应用

对至多一个变点的Γ分布,即X1,X2…,Xn为一列相互独立的随机变量序列,且X1,X2,…,X[n(τ)0]i.i.d～Γ(x;ν1,λ1),X[n(τ)τ0]+1,X[n(τ)0]+2,…,Xn i.i.d～Γ(x;ν2,λ2),其中(τ)0未知,称(τ)0为该序列的变点.在利用第一型极值分布逼近文中提出统计量的分布的基础上,给出了变点(τ)0估计(τ)的相合性及强弱收敛速度.最后给出了在金融序列上的应用.     

混合序列矩不等式和非参数估计

对p-混合、(?)-混合序列给出两个矩不等式,它们在加权和序列研究中比邵启满在[6]、[7]中给出的矩不等式更实用.作为应用,这里讨论非参数递归密度核估计的强收敛速度和非参数回归函数加权核估计的强相合性,获得较好结论.     

对称的稳定分布参数变点估计的相合性

假设稳定分布的特征指数α满足1<α<2,关于均值μ对称. 本文讨论了稳定分布中α或刻度参数β的变化导致的变点问题,即是否发生变化及变化时刻.若均值已知,当α或β改变时,密度函数f(x)在μ处的值f(μ)发生变化,我们利用密度函数的核估计来估计该点的值. 若均值未知,利用经验特征函数估计该点的值,并进一步讨论了估计的相合性与收敛速度. 其次讨论了均值变化导致的变点问题,若均值发生变化,相应变点前后特征函数的参数将变化,利用经验特征函数给出了变点的估计, 获得了类似的收敛速度. 最后给出了检测金融市场突变性的应用.     

非平衡随机效应模型中方差分量的经验Bayes估计

对非平衡单向分类随机效应模型中方差分量找到了其最小充分统计量,在加权平方损失下导出了其Bayes估计,利用多元密度及其偏导数的核估计方法构造了方差分量的经验Bayes(EB)估计,并导出了其收敛速度.文末用例子说明了符合定理条件的先验分布是存在的.     

NA样本下回归函数估计的收敛速度

在误差为NA序列的条件下,研究了固定设计点列情形下非参数回归函数一般权函数的非参数估计,并在一些基本条件下给出了估计的一致最优强收敛速度.     

线性面板模型中的变点估计

由于单序列线性模型中变点估计量与真值之差是随机有界的,在有限样本情形的变点估计量是无意义的,为此本文考虑线性面板模型中单个公共变点的估计问题.首先运用最小二乘方法估计变点,其次在序列个数和每个序列的观测值数量都趋于无穷时通过重参数化方法证明了变点估计量的相合性,并得到了相应的收敛速度,从而表明在有限样本场合变点估计量是有意义的.最后通过Monte Carlo模拟验证了理论结果的正确性.     

至多一个变点的$\Gamma$分布的统计推断及在金融中的应用

对至多一个变点的Γ分布,即X1,X2…,Xn为一列相互独立的随机变量序列,且X1,X2,…,X[nΥ0]i．i．d～Γ(x;ν1,λ1),X[nΥ0] 1,X[nΥ0] 2,…,Xn i．i．d～Γ(x;ν2,λ2),其中Υ0未知,称Υ0为该序列的变点．在利用第一型极值分布逼近文中提出统计量的分布的基础上,给出了变点Υ0估计(?)的相合性及强弱收敛速度．最后给出了在金融序列上的应用．     

Detection of the jump points of a heteroscedastic regression model by wavelets

1. IntroductionDetection of jump points often arises in many practical problems such as signal analysis,.... fimage processing, seismic exploratioll and phonetic identification. FOr examPle, financialeconollilsts often wad to know if abrupt changes occur in an exchange rate series sincethese changes edicted, are affecting or will affect fin-ancial market; engineers concern abolltwhether there exist jumps in a seismic signal in oil exploration bacause these jumps maypredict that there exists br…     

The wavelet detection of the jump and cusp points of a regression function

1. IntroductionMuch effort has been taken to detect the change points of a noise contaminated signal. Detection of change points is very useful in dealing with practical problems such assignal analysis, image processing and phonetic identification. For example, in dealing withelect ro encep halogr am signal ? do ct ors of t en need t o find re al sharp cusp s which exhibi t t heaccelerations and decelerations in the beating of hearts. The early work on detection ofthe change points of a regres…     

WAVELET ESTIMATION FOR JUMPS IN A HETEROSCEDASTIC REGRESSION MODEL

11砒roductlonAnalysis ofjumps Is very important Inpractlce．Thejumps often predicts that the in－vestlgated objects are subject to sudden山auges In山aractenstlcs．刊r exaxnple,the jumps ofn 6Xchs,lxge fat6 ill illAnC6 OftCh ShOW th6 lllfiU6DC6 of th6 11POTts;llt 6y6llts h th6 WOTld Oil6nance markt;thejumps ofa seismic signal In oil exploration m叫 imply that there eistsbroken stratum In the expfored strata．It is hot 6My to d6t6Ct th6 JllthPS SlllC6 th6 llld6Ylying Signal Is Oft6l…     

基于高频波动率模型与R-vine copula的行业资产组合风险测度研究

相较于低频波动率模型,高频波动率模型在单资产的波动和风险预测中均取得了更好效果,因此如何将高频波动率模型引入组合风险分析具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文以沪深300指数中的6种行业高频数据为例,运用滚动时间窗技术建立9类已实现波动率异质自回归(HAR-RV-type)模型刻画行业指数波动,同时使用R-vine copula模型描述行业资产间相依结构,进一步结合均值-CVaR模型优化行业资产组合投资比例,构建组合风险的预期损失模型,并通过返回测试比较不同风险模型的精度差异。研究结果表明:将HAR族高频波动率模型引入组合风险分析框架,能够有效预测行业资产组合风险状况;高频波动率预测的准确性将进而影响组合风险测度效果,跳跃、符号跳跃变差以及符号正向、负向跳跃变差均有助于提高行业组合风险的预测精度。     

JUMP DETECTION BY WAVELET IN NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

1991MRSubjectClassification62G05,62G201IntroductionDtttectiollofthe.iulnppointshasrecentlyfoundinCleasillginterests.Sincejllliippoillts(\andftstfriheson-iesuddenchallgephenorxlenonena,theyal'every11seflllillrllodellillgpracticalprobl(!lusarisinginfieldssuchaseconomics,signalanalysis,illlageprocessingandphonetici'lentification.TheeallyworkondetectiollofthejumpsisShi..[1]andSpeckman[2].Yin[']consideredthe1llodely(t)=s(t) e(f),05t51,(1.1)wheree(t)isaGaussianwhitenoisewithe(0)=0ands(f)isadeter…     

Stochastic volatility Gaussian Heath-Jarrow-Morton models

This paper extends the class of deterministic volatility Heath-Jarrow-Morton models to a Markov chain stochastic volatility framework allowing for jump discontinuities and a variety of deformations of the term structure of forward rate volatilities. Analytical solutions for the dynamics of the volatility term structure are obtained. Semimartingale decompositions of the interest rates under a spot and forward martingale measures are identified. Stochastic volatility versions of the continuous time Ho-Lee and Hull-White extended Vasicek models are obtained. Introducing a regime shift in volatility that is an exponential function of time to maturity leads to a Vasicek dynamics with regime switching coefficients of the short rate.     

Robust Depth-Weighted Wavelet for Nonparametric Regression Models

In the nonparametric regression models, the original regression estimators including kernel estimator, Fourier series estimator and wavelet estimator are always constructed by the weighted sum of data, and the weights depend only on the distance between the design points and estimation points. As a result these estimators are not robust to the perturbations in data. In order to avoid this problem, a new nonparametric regression model, called the depth-weighted regression model, is introduced and then the depth-weighted wavelet estimation is defined. The new estimation is robust to the perturbations in data, which attains very high breakdown value close to 1/2. On the other hand, some asymptotic behaviours such as asymptotic normality are obtained. Some simulations illustrate that the proposed wavelet estimator is more robust than the original wavelet estimator and, as a price to pay for the robustness, the new method is slightly less efficient than the original method.     

Locally Adaptive Wavelet Empirical Bayes Estimation of a Location Parameter

The traditional empirical Bayes (EB) model is considered with the parameter being a location parameter, in the situation when the Bayes estimator has a finite degree of smoothness and, possibly, jump discontinuities at several points. A nonlinear wavelet EB estimator based on wavelets with bounded supports is constructed, and it is shown that a finite number of jump discontinuities in the Bayes estimator do not affect the rate of convergence of the prior risk of the EB estimator to zero. It is also demonstrated that the estimator adjusts to the degree of smoothness of the Bayes estimator, locally, so that outside the neighborhoods of the points of discontinuities, the posterior risk has a high rate of convergence to zero. Hence, the technique suggested in the paper provides estimators which are significantly superior in several respects to those constructed earlier.     

Robust Wavelet-Domain Estimation of the Fractional Difference Parameter in Heavy-Tailed Time Series: An Empirical Study

We investigate the performance of several wavelet-based estimators of the fractional difference parameter. We consider situations where, in addition to long-range dependence, the time series exhibit heavy tails and are perturbed by polynomial and change-point trends. We make detailed study of a wavelet-domain pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), for which we provide an asymptotic and finite-sample justification. Using numerical experiments, we show that unlike the traditional time-domain estimators, estimators based on the wavelet transform are robust to additive trends and change points in mean, and produce accurate estimates even under significant departures from normality. The Wavelet-domain MLE appears to dominate a regression-based wavelet estimator in terms of smaller root mean squared error. These findings are derived from a simulation study and application to computer traffic traces.