半参数时变系数模型的序列相关检验

本文提出了两个统计量来检验半参数时变系数模型的序列相关:一个用于检验半变系数时序模型的有限阶序列相关,另一个用于检验半变系数平行数据模型的有限阶序列相关.在误差过程为鞅差的零假设下,所提出的两个检验统计量服从渐近正态或卡方分布.蒙特卡罗模拟研究表明所提出的检验统计量具有良好的有限样本性质.     

半参数可加测量误差模型的白噪声检验

当模型误差不是白噪声时,通常的估计方法无效,特别是当回归因子包含后延变量时,估计不相合.因此,文章研究了半参数可加测量误差模型的白噪声检验.提出了一个白噪声检验统计量,并在模型误差是白噪声的零假设下证明了所提检验统计量服从渐近正态分布.随机模拟表明所提出的检验统计量具有良好的检验功效和水平.     

大窑湾入境集装箱量及疫情集装箱量的模糊预测研究

作为国际海运和物流业的主要装载工具集装箱是入境统计以及检验检疫的主要对象.按特定规律统计的集装箱量时间序列既有一定的统计规律,又有较大的随机性.采用模糊时间序列方法,通过构造论域、模糊集以及提出多重计算规则,对2005年6月至2012年10月大窑湾入境集装箱量、疫情集装箱量,以及疫情与入境集装箱量比值时间序列进行了模糊分析与预测.预测值与实际值的比较说明了算法的有效性.预测值与实际值的平均绝对误差、平均绝对百分误差从整体上揭示了时间序列自身的模糊性和模型的合理性.     

在非线性回归模型中误差为AR(2)的相关性检验

本文讨论了在非线性回归模型中误差为AR(2)的相关性检验，得到了误差相关性检验的似然比检验统计量、Score检验统计量．对感兴趣参数和多余参数，利用Cox and Reid(1987)提出的正交化方法，给出了修正的似然比检验统计量和Score检验统计量．推广了胡跃清，韦博成(1994)讨论的在非线性回归模型中误差为AR(1)相关性检验的结果．     

部分线性模型序列相关的经验似然比检验

本文研究了部分线性回归模型中误差的序列相关性的检验问题,用经验似然的方法构造检验统计量,得到了零假设下检验统计量的渐近分布,我们的检验方法不但可以检验一阶序列相关,也可以检验高阶序列相关,数值模拟表明检验方法有好的检验功效．     

ARCH模型分布变点监测与应用

分布变点监测是时间序列交点分析的一个重要内容.为将分布交点监测从线性时间序列模型拓展到非线性时间序列模型,提出一种经验特征函数型的统计量监测ARCH模型误差项平方的分布变点,给出了监测统计量在原假设下的极限分布,并证明了此方法的一致性,用Bootstrap重抽样方法获得了极限分布的临界值,并和Kolmogorov-smirnov型监测统计量进行了比较.模拟结果和实例分析说明了当已观测样本量较大时,采用经验特征函数型统计量监测效果较好.     

线性模型中F-检验的稳健性

本文讨论了一般线性模型中关于均值参数β的线性假设基于广义最小二乘估计的F-检验统计量的稳健性问题.主要研究了当误差的协方差矩阵含有参数时,设计阵可以列降秩情况下的F-检验统计量的稳健性,得到了F(V(θ))为该假设下F-检验统计量的误差协方差矩阵的最大类.并讨论了分块线性模型中,关于分块参数的线性假设的F-检验统计量的稳健性.     

面板数据交互固定效应模型的方差分量检验

研究了面板数据交互固定效应模型中方差分量的检验问题.首先依据模型中误差项的估计构造辅助回归模型,然后根据该辅助回归构造检验统计量,对模型中的异方差性进行检验.进一步,通过构造不同的辅助回归模型和检验统计量可以判别异方差的来源.在一定正则条件下,得到了检验统计量在原假设和备择假设下的渐近分布,并说明所提出的检验方法不依赖于误差分布.最后,通过模拟研究对本文的检验方法进行评价,说明所提检验方法是有效的.     

回归模型误差相关性的统一检验方法

提出了回归模型误差项关于实对称矩阵相关的概念，从而将探测误差项的各种相关性，诸如序列自相关、空间自相关以及趋势性等问题纳入统一的统计检验框架内．在线性回归模型下，提出了一种计算检验p-值的三阶矩χ^2逼近方法．与精确方法相比，该逼近方法不但显著地降低了计算量，而且模拟计算表明具有相当高的精度．     

随机设计下非参数回归模型方差变点Ratio检验

研究随机设计下非参数回归模型方差变点Ratio检验.首先用局部多项式方法估计回归曲线得到残差序列,其次基于残差的平方序列构造Ratio检验统计量并推导检验统计量的极限分布.最后数值模拟与实例分析结果表明方法的有效性.     

High dimensional cross-sectional dependence test under arbitrary serial correlation

In panel data analysis, the cross-sectional dependence (CD) test has been extensively used to test the cross-sectional dependence. However, this traditional CD test does not take serial correlation into consideration, which commonly occurs in many fields. To solve this problem, we propose an adjusted CD test which is able to effectively handle serial correlation. More specifically, the serial correlation can be of arbitrary form in our work. Furthermore, we establish the theoretical properties of the proposed adjusted CD test. Our extensive Monte Carlo experiments show that the traditional CD test cannot work well under serial correlation, while the proposed adjusted CD test does provide rather satisfactory performance.     

Compact Matrix Expressions for Generalized Wald Tests of Equality of Moment Vectors

Asymptotic chi-squared test statistics for testing the equality of moment vectors are developed. The test statistics proposed are generalized Wald test statistics that specialize for different settings by inserting an appropriate asymptotic variance matrix of sample moments. Scaled test statistics are also considered for dealing with nonstandard conditions. The specialization will be carried out for testing the equality of multinomial populations, and the equality of variance and correlation matrices for both normal and nonnormal data. When testing the equality of correlation matrices, a scaled version of the normal theory chi-squared statistic is proven to be an asymptotically exact chi-squared statistic in the case of elliptical data.     

Testing equality between several populations covariance operators

In many situations, when dealing with several populations, equality of the covariance operators is assumed. An important issue is to study whether this assumption holds before making other inferences. In this paper, we develop a test for comparing covariance operators of several functional data samples. The proposed test is based on the Hilbert–Schmidt norm of the difference between estimated covariance operators. In particular, when dealing with two populations, the test statistic is just the squared norm of the difference between the two covariance operators estimators. The asymptotic behaviour of the test statistic under both the null hypothesis and local alternatives is obtained. The computation of the quantiles of the null asymptotic distribution is not feasible in practice. To overcome this problem, a bootstrap procedure is considered. The performance of the test statistic for small sample sizes is illustrated through a Monte Carlo study and on a real data set.     

A multivariate nonparametric test of independence

A new nonparametric approach to the problem of testing the joint independence of two or more random vectors in arbitrary dimension is developed based on a measure of association determined by interpoint distances. The population independence coefficient takes values between 0 and 1, and equals zero if and only if the vectors are independent. We show that the corresponding statistic has a finite limit distribution if and only if the two random vectors are independent; thus we have a consistent test for independence. The coefficient is an increasing function of the absolute value of product moment correlation in the bivariate normal case, and coincides with the absolute value of correlation in the Bernoulli case. A simple modification of the statistic is affine invariant. The independence coefficient and the proposed statistic both have a natural extension to testing the independence of several random vectors. Empirical performance of the test is illustrated via a comparative Monte Carlo study.     

指数样本中多个异常值的Unmasking检验

指数样本中多个异常值的非一致性检验因受masking或swamping效应的影响而变得十分的困难和复杂，解决这一问题的关键在于K值的确定，传统的方法是无能为力的．本文基于变量选择的AIC准则的思想提出了异常值检验的一种新方法，它具有不预先指定k，计算简单且通过达到极大化MAIC就能达到确定k和消除检验中的masking或swamping的优点．还给出了易计算检验显著水平的统计量和公式．最后，通过实例的验证标明本文方法的有效性．     

利用局部加权拟合方法检验线性回归关系

利用局部加权技术拟合变参数回归模型,提出了一个检验线性回归关系的方法.基于残差平方和,构造适当的检验统计量,给出了计算检验p-值的精确方法及三阶矩x2逼近方法.随机模拟与实例分析表明计算p-值的逼近方法具有较高的精度,所提出的检验统计量在检测回归函数非线性性方面有满意的功效和可靠性.     

A VIEW OF THE CHI-SQUARE STATISTIC

Statistical analysis of contingency tables is essentially a discrete multivariate problem. To test independence in a two-way contingency table, one can use different principles such as general class of distance or Mahalanobis distance to derive test statistic. Most of them result in the chi-square statistic, which is a simple test statistic. The disadvantage of the chi-square test is discussed from a multivariate point of view. A new test statistic is proposed for testing independence. This statistic is more sensitive to dependence than the chi-square statistic.     

Maximum eccentricity as a union-intersection test statistic in multivariate analysis

Union-intersection is a heuristic method of test construction developed by S. N. Roy. Among the well-known applications of this principle is the test for independence between two sets of variates which leads directly to the concept of canonical correlation. Another multivariate application of considerable importance is the test of internal independence. In this article we consider the structure of a correlation matrix and derive a union-intersection test statistic for internal independence. This statistic will be shown to be a function of the maximum eccentricity of the p-dimensional correlation ellipsoid x′R^?1x = 1. The statistic will be applied to problems in factor analysis and categorical scaling.     

A multivariate empirical characteristic function test of independence with normal marginals

This paper proposes a semi-parametric test of independence (or serial independence) between marginal vectors each of which is normally distributed but without assuming the joint normality of these marginal vectors. The test statistic is a Cramér–von Mises functional of a process defined from the empirical characteristic function. This process is defined similarly as the process of Ghoudi et al. [J. Multivariate Anal. 79 (2001) 191] built from the empirical distribution function and used to test for independence between univariate marginal variables. The test statistic can be represented as a V-statistic. It is consistent to detect any form of dependence. The weak convergence of the process is derived. The asymptotic distribution of the Cramér–von Mises functionals is approximated by the Cornish–Fisher expansion using a recursive formula for cumulants and inversion of the characteristic function with numerical evaluation of the eigenvalues. The test statistic is finally compared with Wilks statistic for testing the parametric hypothesis of independence in the one-way MANOVA model with random effects.     

部分线性模型基于参数信息的统计推断

针对部分线性模型提出了一种新的估计方法-Profile局部最小二乘估计,方法结合了非参数部分的参数信息.另外对于部分线性模型中非参数部分是否为某一参数函数的检验问题,基于比较原假设与备择假设下模型拟合的残差平方和的思想构造了检验统计量,并给出了计算检验p-值的精确方法和三阶矩χ2逼近方法.