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Change monitoring of distribution in time series models is an important issue.This paper proposes a procedure for monitoring changes in the error distribution of autoregressive time series,which is based on a weighed empirical process of residuals with weights equal to the regressors.The asymptotic properties of our monitoring statistic are derived under the null hypothesis of no change in distribution.The finite sample properties are investigated by a simulation.As it turns out,the procedure is not only able to detect distributional changes but also changes in the regression coefficient and mean.Finally,we apply the statistic to a groups of financial data. 相似文献
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应力为SGBVE分布强度为指数分布下结构可靠度的估计 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
考虑了应力服从SGBVE分布,强度服从指数分布的应力—强度模型,分别在应力参数未知和部分强度参数未知的情形下给出了该模型可靠度的估计,并讨论了其性质. 相似文献
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本文通过将使用时间在可能发生故障的时刻划分成时间区间,对修如旧模型下的多部件系统,在修理延迟条件下,对各类故障在同一时间区间里相容的条件下导出了任意给定时刻设备的可用度函数,并对文[3]中的算法做了改进,得到了更精确更合理的结果 相似文献
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对一类带Hurst指数的分数布朗运动趋势项变点的检验问题进行了研究,提出了一种先对观测序列做一阶差分,再基于差分序列构造Wilcoxon秩统计量做检验的后验检验方法。在原假设下证得检验统计量的极限分布是标准分数布朗运动的泛函,并给出了检验统计量的临界值。数值模拟结果表明,提出的检验方法除Hurst值较大外,均能很好地控制经验水平,经验势随样本量的增多几乎能趋近于1,且在样本量较大时,对截距项变点和方差变点稳健。采用该方法分析了1854—1989年北半球月均气温数据,未检测到趋势项变点。 相似文献
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分布变点监测是时间序列交点分析的一个重要内容.为将分布交点监测从线性时间序列模型拓展到非线性时间序列模型,提出一种经验特征函数型的统计量监测ARCH模型误差项平方的分布变点,给出了监测统计量在原假设下的极限分布,并证明了此方法的一致性,用Bootstrap重抽样方法获得了极限分布的临界值,并和Kolmogorov-smirnov型监测统计量进行了比较.模拟结果和实例分析说明了当已观测样本量较大时,采用经验特征函数型统计量监测效果较好. 相似文献
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The paper investigates the sequential observations’ variance change in linear regression model. The procedure is based on a detection function constructed by residual squares of CUSUM and a boundary function which is designed so that the test has a small probability of false alarm and asymptotic power one. Simulation results show our monitoring procedure performs well when variance change occurs shortly after the monitoring time. The method is still feasible for regression coefficients change or both variance and regression coefficients change problem. 相似文献
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