低碳背景下装备制造企业碳减排研究:一个演化博弈视角

低碳发展模式逐渐引起了社会各界对环境问题的关注,发展低碳经济以促进经济的可持续发展,是现阶段研究的前沿问题。本文针对中国装备制造企业碳排放问题,构建了低碳背景下装备制造企业、政府及第三方监管机构的三方演化博弈模型,研究在碳减排过程中三方主体的演化规律及影响系统演化至理想状态的影响因素和机理。通过理论研究和数值仿真,得出结果:装备制造企业的低碳演化决策是三方主体共同博弈的结果,只研究单一变量的演化结果有局限性;低碳背景下企业不应该存在继续以传统方式生产的侥幸心理;降低政府的低碳调控成本、降低装备制造企业的低碳转型成本、加大对传统生产企业和不履行监管职责的第三方监管机构的罚款力度,加大对低碳生产企业的补贴力度等方式能够有效的推动三方主体向理想低碳运营模式演化。     

基于碳关税和配额的再制造决策研究

在跨国闭环供应链中考虑碳关税、碳配额和碳税三种政策的影响,分别建立了出口国制造商(OEM)再制造模型和OEM授权进口国零售商进行再制造模型,得到不同模型中OEM和零售商的最优价格、最优销售量、最优利润,进一步分析了产品碳排放总量是否超过配额的不同情形下新产品碳排放量对新产品和再制造品价格、销售量的影响以及其中碳关税和碳税发挥的作用.结果表明,在配额限制下,存在碳关税、碳税以及两种政策共同约束的取值区间,当税率水平在不同区间时,新产品碳排放量对两种产品的价格、销售量有不同的影响.     

Buckling Analysis of Carbon Nanotubes

In this work, an atomistic-continuum model is applied to single-walled carbon nanotubes. The constitutive behaviour is described by the interatomic Tersoff-Brenner potential. The coupling between atomistic deformation and the deformation of the continuum is done by an expanded Cauchy-Born rule. With the help of this model, the buckling behaviour of carbon nanotubes under different loading conditions is studied. Numerical simulation results are given for two different types of loading (axial compression, torsion). (© 2010 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

碳减排补贴与碳税下的供应链碳减排决策优化与协调

针考虑碳税政策和政府对制造商的碳减排技术创新投入补贴,构建了供应链博弈模型,根据协调条件给出了相应的契约形式及参数。通过对供应链模型的求解,得到了碳税和碳减排技术创新投入补贴下的最优碳减排量和最优订货量。数值分析结果表明:碳减排技术创新投入的补贴比例变化对供应链的最优碳减排量、订货量及期望利润的影响有较大影响,而且是成正向变化关系,而且在其他参数不变及供应链碳减排量一定的情况下,碳税与碳减排补贴比例呈反向变化关系,进而可为政府碳减排补贴政策制定及供应链碳减排优化提供科学的决策依据。     

Quaziamorphous Carbon and Carbon Nitride Films Deposited from the Plasma of Pulsed Cathodic Arc Discharge

Cathodic arc discharge allows deposition of hydrogen-free quaziamorphous carbon films with a wide range of properties. The amount of sp³-bonded fraction can be up to 80 at.%, depending on the deposition conditions. This paper presents a summary of the characterization of carbon and carbon nitride thin films prepared by the cathodic arc discharge method operating in pulsed mode. The influence of the discharge parameters on the films structure and properties is described. Partial attention is paid to the analysis of films by Raman spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy. A comparison of results for different plasma sources design is conducted.     

基于随机电阻网络碳毡复合层力阻建模

基于碳纤维单丝力阻效应影响因素的统计规律,揭示了碳毡复合层力阻传感特性的导电网络定量化模型．对碳纤维单丝相互搭接后的长度进行了讨论,得到关于纤维均长、纤维密度、纤维根数等多参量间的统计关系;在假设毡内纤维随机均匀分布且搭接点正态分布的情况下,分别对4种不同尺寸的碳纤维毡复合层的电阻进行了估测,并通过箱线图分析表明实测值在相应的估测范围内,说明本模型可较好地对碳纤维随机乱相分布的碳毡复合层电阻进行估测;最后,基于碳毡电阻网络的统计模型,对碳毡复合层的力阻特性进行了研究,通过比较理论电阻变化率与实测电阻变化率发现模型给出的复合层力阻效应灵敏系数较为稳定,从而表明随机电阻网络模型可较好的模拟碳毡受载荷时的力阻行为．     

Multifractal Parametrization of the Structure of Deformed Carbon Fibers

Deformed carbon fibers are investigated, and their failure model is proposed based on the Sierpinski set and the hypothesis of two — brittle and viscous — fracture modes, whose existence is confirmed by examples of a correlation between the mechanical strength and elastic modulus of the fibers. For the first time, a multifractal diagram is obtained, which allows one to justify the classification of carbon fibers into brittle and inelastic ones.     

Bounds for the Elastic Properties of Pyrolytic Carbon

The elastic properties of heterogeneous materials without defects depend on both the constitutive properties of the constituents and the microstructural characteristics. In this paper the first-order bounds of aggregates of domains with hexagonal material symmetry are determined in terms of tensorial texture coefficients. The predictive capability of these bounds is compared to higher-order bounds for pyrolytic carbon. (© 2009 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

我国行业碳生产率度量及演化动态

提高碳生产率对保持碳的稳定和经济持续增长具有重要意义.基于投入产出模型对中国2002-2012年26个行业的碳生产率进行测算,并通过构建Tapio脱钩指标对其进行动态分析.结果显示我国碳生产率总体在波动中上升,存在阶段性特征,行业差异明显,且第二产业总体水平偏低;行业脱钩指数总体呈现出弱脱钩—增长连结交替出现的发展特征.     

基于EMD-GA-BP与EMD-PSO-LSSVM的中国碳市场价格预测

由于碳交易市场价格的波动性大及相互影响关系的复杂性,本文试图构建碳价格长期和短期的最优预测模型。考虑到碳交易价格波动的趋势性和周期性特点,基于经验模态分解算法(EMD)、遗传算法(GA)—神经网络(BP)模型、粒子群算法(PSO)—最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型及由它们构建的组合预测模型,对中国碳市场交易价格进行短期预测和长期预测。实证分析中将影响碳交易价格的不同宏观经济因素和碳价格时间序列因素做为输入变量,分别代入组合模型进行预测。研究结果表明,在短期预测中,EMD-GA-BP模型预测效果优于GA-BP模型和PSO-LSSVM模型;而在长期预测中,组合模型EMD-PSO-LSSVM模型预测效果优于只考虑碳价格波动趋势性或周期性预测效果。     

厂商低碳产品管理决策行为分析

在发展低碳经济的时代背景下,企业将面临低碳产品的管制,为符合低碳产品标准,企业将增加低碳产品的投资,对其生产工艺、技术或产品性能进行改造,势必增加企业经营成本,冲击产业发展.本文主要建立一个代表性厂商面临碳管制时低碳产品管理决策模型,期望通过厂商行为分析,掌握影响厂商低碳产品管理决策行为的关键因子,提供政府管理与厂商经营策略的参考意见.     

中国试点碳排放权交易市场有效性分析

为应对气候变化问题,《京都议定书》等文件催生了以CO₂排放权作为商品的碳交易市场的建立。研究中国试点碳排放权交易市场的有效性对我国统一碳市场的建设以及碳中和目标的实现具有重要的指导意义。本文选取有效交易日数据,对中国试点碳市场的有效性进行探索性研究,结合有效市场假说理论与分形市场假说理论,分别采用游程检验法、方差比检验法以及重标极差分析法对中国碳市场有效性进行综合分析,同时探讨各方法导致计算结果不一致的原因,并利用GARCH模型进行检验。研究表明:中国试点碳市场未能达到弱式有效水平。同时,根据中国目前碳市场运行现状给出一定的建议。     

基于三阶段SM-DEA-Malmquist指数的长江经济带碳排放效率研究

碳排放问题近年来备受各界学者所关注。为评价长江经济带区域内碳排放绩效,本文结合非期望产出的三阶段SBM-DEA模型和Malmquist指数对2011~2019年长江经济带11省市碳排放效率测算及动静态分析,该模型剔除了环境因素和随机变量的影响,使得测算结果更加符合实际情况。研究表明:长江经济带碳排放绩效呈整体上升态势,且存在东部>中部>西部差异化特征,内部管理对碳排放效率提升的正向作用明显,加大东中西部地区的人才引入及技术交流频度,有助于提升碳排放效率。     

Nanomechanics of Carbon Nanotubes

We discuss the mechanical properties of carbon nanotubes, in particular the pressure-dependence of the Raman modes and the collapse pressure, and their relation to the corresponding mechanical properties of graphite and graphene. The frequencies of the Raman G-mode and radial breathing mode (RBM), as well as the pressure dependence of the RBM can be largely-explained in the existing framework of C–C stretching modes and envirionmental effects induced by the pressure medium. The pressure dependence of the G-mode is still missing such an explanation. The collapse pressure can be understood in terms of the continuum theory for thin-walled tubes. (© 2013 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

机动车碳税政策下政府、企业与出行者的三方演化博弈模型研究

为促进机动车碳减排,缓解因尾气排放带来的大气污染,本文采用演化博弈理论探究机动车碳税政策下的决策行为。建立政府管理部门、汽车企业和出行者三方利益主体的演化博弈模型,并对模型的演化路径及演化规律进行理论与数值仿真。研究发现:降低机动车碳排放演化是政府、汽车企业和出行者三者博弈互动的结果;政府主动实施机动车碳税政策,能够促进另外两者选择低碳的策略;提高机动车碳税税额与对低碳行为的补贴,加快了汽车企业与出行者朝各自低碳策略演化的速度。     

考虑低碳偏好及碳减排的闭环供应链回收及专利授权策略

研究考虑消费者低碳偏好的闭环供应链回收、碳减排与专利授权决策问题。分别构建制造商回收再制造、零售商回收再制造支付固定专利费、零售商回收再制造支付单位专利费的闭环供应链模型,分析低碳消费者比例、普通消费者对再制品的接受程度及碳权交易价格,对企业回收、碳减排及定价决策的影响,并比较了三种模式下企业及供应链的利润。研究表明:随着市场中低碳消费者比例及普通消费者对再制品接受程度的提高,总会使得回收率及碳减排率增加;碳权交易价格的提高,也会促使制造商提高碳减排率;对制造商来说,其利润在零售商回收再制造且支付固定专利费用下实现最优。从自身利润最优的角度出发,作为领导者的制造商将总是选择零售商回收再制造且支付固定专利费用模式。     

Oscillations of Carbon Brushes in Hand‐held Electrical Tools

A series‐universal motor is usually used in hand‐held electrical tools, such as cutting or grinding machines. The corresponding two carbon brushes are preloaded by springs to maintain a proper contact necessary to reduce their wear and erosion. The oscillations of carbon brushes are coupled with the rotor motion. A model including carbon brushes and the main parts of tool rotor is described. By using the method of multibody systems the equations of motion are derived. The one‐sided contact forces and the electrical forces between commutator and brushes are mainly responsible for the nonlinear oscillations of brushes. The contour of contact surface is one of the major parameters of contact force. There exist periods where the brushes are separated from the commutator, i.e. a free flight motion of carbon brush occurs. The measured and simulated results show that a large spring preload and a small brush mass improve the contact and result in reduced free flight periods. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

在受轴向周期扰动作用下双壁碳纳米管动力屈曲的研究

对双壁碳纳米管受轴向周期扰动的动力响应进行了研究．采用连续体模型研究双壁碳纳米管的动力屈曲问题,考虑了壁间van der Waals力和周围弹性介质对轴向动力屈曲的影响．给出了受轴向周期扰动的屈曲模型及临界应变和临界频率．发现双壁碳纳米管由于壁间van der Waals力的作用较单壁碳纳米管具有较低的临界应变．van der Waals力和周围弹性介质将影响双壁碳纳米管不稳定区,van der Waals力使受轴向周期性扰动的双壁碳纳米管的临界频率增大,周围弹性介质对双壁碳纳米管的临界频率影响不大．     

中国碳排放灰色预测

中国碳排放问题成为世界关注的焦点问题.预测中国未来碳排放有助于实现2020年的碳减排目标.选取2002-2009年中国碳排放数据,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型,对中国碳排放进行了短期预测.模型检验结果表明:预测精度为二级,关联度、均方差比值和小误差概率均为一级,预测结果与实际值出入较小,到2015年中国碳排放量将超过三十二亿吨碳,"十二五"期间二氧化碳减排形势严峻.针对研究结果,提出发展低碳经济,提高能源效率和发展非化石能源来降低碳排放的策略.     

Carbon sequestration and land management under uncertainty

Uncertainty about the role of forestry and land-use change in mitigating global warming is addressed using a possibilistic linear programming model of forest and agricultural land management. The objective is to maximize the cumulative net discounted returns in the two sectors, while meeting specific carbon-uptake goals and maintaining stable flows of timber over the planning horizon. Because of ambiguity related to timber yield and carbon parameters, and vagueness of policy targets (economic returns, timber production and carbon-uptake), ordinal measures of uncertainty are applied. While ordinality entails loss of precision, it makes it possible to solve complex problems. This paper compares land-use policies in the boreal forest zone of Northeastern British Columbia under uncertainty with those from a more typical scenario that applies best-guess parameter values. Including uncertainty explicitly into the possibility analysis changes optimal land-use and forest management, and leads to different levels of projected timber supply, economic performance and carbon sequestration. The amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) removed from the atmosphere and the economic cost of carbon uptake are sensitive to how the decision-maker tackles uncertainty.