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军事通信网可靠性综合评估方法 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
军事通信网系统的可靠性测度指标可通过现场实验,实验室实验,计算机模拟和理论分析等方法得到。考虑多个可靠性测度指标的情况下,军事通信网可靠性评估是多指标的综合评价,本文在介绍两种综合评估方法的同时,提出了一种新的可靠性综合评估方法-综合评分法,该方法可应用于军事通信网的规划和决策。 相似文献
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汪建华 《数学的实践与认识》2017,(13):1-8
教育评估的可靠性决定了评估结果的可信性,影响着教育评估的声誉和发展.结合高校领军人才评审探讨了数学可靠性模型在教育评估中的应用,通过建立数学可靠性模型,计算评审系统的可靠性,并结合可靠性计算结果分析了影响评审系统可靠性的因素. 相似文献
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针对航空维修人因可靠性定量评估这一难点问题,提出了一种基于粗糙集理论(RST)和区间层次分析法(IAHP)的人因可靠性评估模型.根据大量统计数据,运用决策树法建立分层次的航空维修科目人因可靠性指标评价体系.综合采用区间层次分析法和粗糙集方法确定指标权重,提出了采用区间型加权算法对指标进行聚合.以某航空维修系统更换发动机科目为例,对所提方法进行案例验证.结果表明,该方法具有实用、可操作性强等特点,为航空维修系统科目的人因可靠性评估提供了理论参考. 相似文献
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在定数截尾缺失数据样本下,研究了冷贮备串联系统的可靠性指标评估问题.将经典估计方法和Bayes方法相结合得到了部件的平均寿命、系统可靠度及平均寿命等可靠性指标的Bayes点估计和区间估计.最后利用随机模拟例子说明了方法的正确性和可行性. 相似文献
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随着高性能复杂系统日益向“高质量、长寿命、小子样”等方向发展,在可靠性试验中经常出现小样本失效数据,传统的基于大样本的产品可靠性评估已不能满足试验要求.在两参数Weibull分布模型的基础上,对原始小样本数据采用灰色估计进行两参数估计,再利用蒙特卡洛方法进行随机抽样并将抽样结果纳入贝叶斯先验信息,通过贝叶斯公式得到后验分布,最终计算得到产品可靠度、失效概率、失效率等结果.最后经实例验证了该方法的有效性. 相似文献
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供应链企业可靠性是供应链可靠性的重要问题之一.在国内外研究文献综述基础上提出了供应链企业节点可靠性的初步预警指标.而后以此为基础,利用P-SVM方法完成了指标体系的构建及供应链企业可靠性预警. 相似文献
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A crucial measure for the design of high-performance micro-resonators is to consider the randomness of structural parameters when analyzing the structural system reliability. In this work, the stochastic dynamic response analysis and subsequently, a dynamic reliability assessment of the random micro-resonators are originally presented, where the thermoelastic coupling effects are freshly incorporated in the models proposed. The dynamic characteristics equation of the deterministic micro-resonator is firstly established based on the finite element method. The random dynamic characteristics of the resonator are then solved by implementing the left and right eigenvectors and the block Lanczos algorithm, and the random temperature field and structural random dynamic stress are also tackled. Afterwards, the overall structural reliability is investigated with a comprehensive consideration of the strength failure and frequency resonance failure, in which the Copula function is used for describing the dynamic correlation between two failure modes. Finally, the feasibility and rationality of the method put forward are demonstrated via a practically motivated example. 相似文献
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陈勇刚 《数学的实践与认识》2011,41(2)
机队作为航空公司运输能力的关键,其安全性与可靠性直接影响到航空公司的经济效益.根据航空公司机队可靠性统计和数据采集方式以及实际应用情况,建立了航空公司机队可靠性评价指标体系.鉴于机队可靠性受多种复杂因素影响及各指标体系非线性等特点,结合人工神经网络基本原理和特性,提出了BP神经网络机队可靠性评价模型.最后应用该模型对航空公司机队可靠性进行了实例分析,得出了评价等级.结果表明,基于BP神经网络机队可靠性评价模型是可行的,该方法能够实现动态的评价,对提高航空公司机队可靠性评价技术水平具有现实的意义. 相似文献
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A probability model of natural gas supply from the supplier to the transporter and finally to the ultimate customer is proposed.
The reliability of natural gas supply depending on the bilateral relations between countries participating in the process
is studied, and the probability of a cessation of deliveries is estimated. 相似文献
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Non-probabilistic reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization has been widely acknowledged as an advanced methodology for complex system design when the data is insufficient. In this work, the uncertainty propagation analysis method in multidisciplinary system based on subinterval theory is firstly studied to obtain the uncertain responses. Then, based on the non-probabilistic set theory, the interval reliability based multidisciplinary design optimization model is established. Considering that the gradient information of interval reliability cannot be acquired in the whole design domain, which causes convergence difficulties and prohibitive computation, an interval reliability displacement based multidisciplinary design optimization method is proposed to address the issue. In the proposed method, the interval reliability displacement is introduced to measure the degree of interval reliability. By doing so, not only the connotation of the interval reliability is guaranteed, but more importantly, the partial gradient region for interval reliability is equivalently converted into full gradient region for reliability displacement. Consequently, the gradient information can be acquired under any circumstances and thus the convergence process is highly accelerated by utilizing the gradient optimization algorithms. 相似文献
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依据 AMSAA模型利用某型航空火控系统各组成单元的研制阶段试验数据并基于遗传算法确定出单元的时间环境折合系数 ,进而求得各单元 MTBF点估计和置信下限 ,最后利用 L-M法给出该系统可靠度置信下限值 .研究结果表明 ,由此得到的系统可靠性评估结果与依据设计定型后实际使用数据统计得到的可靠性水平相接近 ,应用该方法进行系统可靠性评估能较好地满足工程上的需求 . 相似文献
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随机结构系统基于可靠性的优化设计 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
提出了以梁板(薄板)为基体的随机结构系统(即结构元件的面积、长度、弹性模量和强度等均为随机变量)在随机载荷作用下,基于可靠性的优化设计方法.给出了随机结构系统安全余量和系统可靠性指标的敏度表达式;给出最佳矢量型算法.首先是用改进的一次二阶矩和随机有限元法求出安全余量的可靠性指标的表达式,然后用概率网络估算(PNET)法求出系统失效概率的公式,对该式两边求导得出了系统可靠性指标的敏度表达式,进而用最佳矢量型算法进行优化设计.在优化迭代过程中,采用梯度步和最佳矢量步相结合的方法进行计算.最后给出了一个算例,说明该方法计算效率高,收敛稳定,适合工程应用. 相似文献
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Structural safety assessment issue, considering the influence of uncertain factors, is widely concerned currently. However, uncertain parameters present time-variant characteristics during the entire structural design procedure. Considering materials aging, loads varying and damage accumulation, the current reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) strategy that combines the static/time-invariant assumption with the random theory will be inapplicable when tackling with the optimal design issues for lifecycle mechanical problems. In light of this, a new study on non-probabilistic time-dependent reliability assessment and design under time-variant and time-invariant convex mixed variables is investigated in this paper. The hybrid reliability measure is first given by the first-passage methodology, and the solution aspects should depend on the regulation treatment and the convex theorem. To guarantee the rationality and efficiency of the optimization task, the improved GA algorithm is involved. Two numerical examples are discussed to demonstrate the validity and usage of the presented methodology. 相似文献