Strong Law of Large Numbers and Central Limit Theorems for Functionals of Inhomogeneous Semi-Markov Processes

Limit theorems for functionals of classical (homogeneous) Markov renewal and semi-Markov processes have been known for a long time, since the pioneering work of Pyke Schaufele (Limit theorems for Markov renewal processes, Ann. Math. Statist., 35(4):1746–1764, 1964). Since then, these processes, as well as their time-inhomogeneous generalizations, have found many applications, for example, in finance and insurance. Unfortunately, no limit theorems have been obtained for functionals of inhomogeneous Markov renewal and semi-Markov processes as of today, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. In this article, we provide strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem results for such processes. In particular, we make an important connection of our results with the theory of ergodicity of inhomogeneous Markov chains. Finally, we provide an application to risk processes used in insurance by considering a inhomogeneous semi-Markov version of the well-known continuous-time Markov chain model, widely used in the literature.     

The Geometric Markov Renewal Processes with Application to Finance

We introduce the geometric Markov renewal processes as a model for a security market and study this processes in a series scheme. We consider its approximations in the form of averaged, merged and double averaged geometric Markov renewal processes. Weak convergence analysis and rates of convergence of ergodic geometric Markov renewal processes are presented. Martingale properties, infinitesimal operators of geometric Markov renewal processes are presented and a Markov renewal equation for expectation is derived. As an application, we consider the case of two ergodic classes. Moreover, we consider a generalized binomial model for a security market induced by a position dependent random map as a special case of a geometric Markov renewal process.     

The minimal solution of a Markov renewal equation

Given a killed Markov process, one can use a procedure of Ikedaet al. to revive the process at the killing times. The revived process is again a Markov process and its transition function is the minimal solution of a Markov renewal equation. In this paper we will calculate such solutions for a class of revived processes.     

Renewal theory for extremal Markov sequences of Kendall type

The paper deals with renewal theory for a class of extremal Markov sequences connected with the Kendall convolution. We consider here some particular cases of the Wold processes associated with generalized convolutions. We prove an analogue of the Fredholm theorem for all regular generalized convolutions algebras. Using regularly varying functions we prove a Blackwell theorem and a limit theorem for renewal processes defined by Kendall random walks.Our results set new research hypotheses for other generalized convolution algebras to investigate renewal processes constructed by Markov processes with respect to generalized convolutions.     

Semi-Markov processes and α-invariant distributions

A semi-Markov process is easily made Markov by adding some auxiliary random variables. This paper discusses the I-type quasi-stationary distributions of such “extended” processes, and the α-invariant distributions for the corresponding Markov transition probabilities; and we show that there is an intimate relation between the two. The results have relevance in the study of the time to “absorption” or “death” of semi-Markov processes. The particular case of a terminating renewal process is studied as an example.     

On performance comparison of MR/GI/1 queues

In this paper we are interested in the effect that dependencies in the arrival process to a queue have on queueing properties such as mean queue length and mean waiting time. We start with a review of the well known relations used to compare random variables and random vectors, e.g., stochastic orderings, stochastic increasing convexity, and strong stochastic increasing concavity. These relations and others are used to compare interarrival times in Markov renewal processes first in the case where the interarrival time distributions depend only on the current state in the underlying Markov chain and then in the general case where these interarrivai times depend on both the current state and the next state in that chain. These results are used to study a problem previously considered by Patuwo et al. [14].Then, in order to keep the marginal distributions of the interarrivai times constant, we build a particular transition matrix for the underlying Markov chain depending on a single parameter,p. This Markov renewal process is used in the Patuwo et al. [14] problem so as to investigate the behavior of the mean queue length and mean waiting time on a correlation measure depending only onp. As constructed, the interarrival time distributions do not depend onp so that the effects we find depend only on correlation in the arrival process.As a result of this latter construction, we find that the mean queue length is always larger in the case where correlations are non-zero than they are in the more usual case of renewal arrivals (i.e., where the correlations are zero). The implications of our results are clear.     

Moment Solutions for the State Exiting Counting Processes of a Markov Renewal Process

Important performance measures for many Markov renewal processes are the counts of the exits from each state. We present solutions for the conditional first, second, and covariance moments of the state exiting counting processes for a Markov renewal process, and solutions for the unconditional equilibrium versions of the moments. We demonstrate the relationship between the conditional first moments for the state exiting and the state entering counting processes. For analytical and illustrative purposes, we concentrate on the two state case. Two asymptotic expansions for the moment functions are proposed and evaluated both analytically and empirically. The two approximations are shown to be competitive in terms of absolute relative error, but the second approximation has a simpler analytical form which is useful in analyzing more complex stochastic processes having an underlying MRP structure.     

关于马尔可夫更新测度的一个局部等价式

考虑了逗留时间服从一类次指数分布的马尔可夫更新过程,延伸了文[3]的结果,得到了马尔可夫更新测度的一个局部等价式.     

On Renewal Matrices Connected with Branching Processes with Tails of Distributions of Different Orders

We study irreducible renewal matrices generated by matrices whose rows are proportional to various distribution functions. Such matrices arise in studies of multi-dimensional critical Bellman–Harris branching processes. Proofs of limit theorems for such branching processes are based on asymptotic properties of a chosen family of renewal matrices. In the theory of branching processes, unsolved problems are known that correspond to the case in which the tails of some of the above mentioned distribution functions are integrable, while the other distributions lack this property.We assume that the heaviest tails are regularly varying at the infinity with parameter ?β ∈ [?1, 0) and asymptotically proportional, while the other tails are infinitesimal with respect to them. Under a series of additional conditions, we describe asymptotic properties of the first and second order increments for the renewal matrices.     

The Gerber-Shiu penalty functions for two classes of renewal risk processes

In this paper, we study the Gerber-Shiu functions for a risk model with two independent classes of risks. We suppose that both of the two claim number processes are renewal processes with phase-type inter-claim times. By re-composing and analyzing the Markov chains associated with two given phase-type distributions, we obtain systems of integro-differential equations for two types of Gerber-Shiu functions. Explicit expressions for the Laplace transforms of the two types of Gerber-Shiu functions are established, respectively. And explicit results for the Gerber-Shiu functions are derived when the initial surplus is zero and when the two claim amount distributions are both from the rational family. Finally, an example is considered to illustrate the applicability of our main results.     

A Markov Renewal Approach to M/G/1 Type Queues with Countably Many Background States

We consider the stationary distribution of the M/GI/1 type queue when background states are countable. We are interested in its tail behavior. To this end, we derive a Markov renewal equation for characterizing the stationary distribution using a Markov additive process that describes the number of customers in system when the system is not empty. Variants of this Markov renewal equation are also derived. It is shown that the transition kernels of these renewal equations can be expressed by the ladder height and the associated background state of a dual Markov additive process. Usually, matrix analysis is extensively used for studying the M/G/1 type queue. However, this may not be convenient when the background states are countable. We here rely on stochastic arguments, which not only make computations possible but also reveal new features. Those results are applied to study the tail decay rates of the stationary distributions. This includes refinements of the existence results with extensions.     

Large deviations for Markov bridges with jumps

In this paper, we consider a family of Markov bridges with jumps constructed from truncated stable processes. These Markov bridges depend on a small parameter ?>0$?>0$, and have fixed initial and terminal positions. We propose a new method to prove a large deviation principle for this family of bridges based on compact level sets, change of measures, duality and various global and local estimates of transition densities for truncated stable processes.     

半马尔可夫过程的极限分布及其推广

本文运用马尔可夫骨架过程的极限理论研究齐次可列半马尔可夫过程,得到其极限分布.当更新间隔的分布不是格子分布时,本文的结果和邓永录等[1]中的结果一致,但采用的方法不同,本文采用的是马尔可夫骨架过程的理论方法,而[1]中采用的是交替更新过程的方法;而且关于更新间隔服从格子分布的情形,[1]中没有研究,而本文给出了结果.最...     

Estimation in Stationary Markov Renewal Processes,with Application to Earthquake Forecasting in Turkey

Consider a process in which different events occur, with random inter-occurrence times. In Markov renewal processes as well as in semi-Markov processes, the sequence of events is a Markov chain and the waiting distributions depend only on the types of the last and the next event. Suppose that the state-space is finite and that the process started far in the past, achieving stationary. Weibull distributions are proposed for the waiting times and their parameters are estimated jointly with the transition probabilities through maximum likelihood, when one or several realizations of the process are observed over finite windows. The model is illustrated with data of earthquakes of three types of severity that occurred in Turkey during the 20th century.AMS 2000 Subject Classification: 60K20     

A fluctuation theory for Markov chains

A fluctuation theory for Markov chains on an ordered countable state space is developed, using ladder processes. These are shown to be Markov renewal processes. Results are given for the joint distribution of the extremum (maximum or minimum) and the first time the extremum is achieved. Also a new classification of the states of a Markov chain is suggested. Two examples are given.     

Diffusion Approximations for Queues with Markovian Bases

Consider a base family of state-dependent queues whose queue-length process can be formulated by a continuous-time Markov process. In this paper, we develop a piecewise-constant diffusion model for an enlarged family of queues, each of whose members has arrival and service distributions generalized from those of the associated queue in the base. The enlarged family covers many standard queueing systems with finite waiting spaces, finite sources and so on. We provide a unifying explicit expression for the steady-state distribution, which is consistent with the exact result when the arrival and service distributions are those of the base. The model is an extension as well as a refinement of the M/M/s-consistent diffusion model for the GI/G/s queue developed by Kimura [13] where the base was a birth-and-death process. As a typical base, we still focus on birth-and-death processes, but we also consider a class of continuous-time Markov processes with lower-triangular infinitesimal generators.     

The Heat Semigroup for the Jacobi–Dunkl Operator and the Related Markov Processes

This paper is devoted to the heat equation associated with the Jacobi–Dunkl operator on the real line. In particular we show that the heat semigroup has a strictly positive kernel and a finite Green operator. As a direct application, we solve the Poisson equation and we introduce a new family of one-dimensional Markov processes.     

极值分布的一个注记

本文对PH极值分布进行了推广,应用构造相关联的Markov过程的方法,证明了n个相互独立的PH随机变量构成的次序随机变量的分布仍是PH分布。并给出了次序PH随机变量分布表达式的表示方法,本文同时也给出了次序PH随机变量的联合生存分布,本文最后给出了次序PH随机变量在可靠性理论与更新理论中的应用。     

On stationary Markov processes with polynomial conditional moments

We study a class of stationary Markov processes with marginal distributions identifiable by moments such that every conditional moment of degree say m is a polynomial of degree at most m. We show that then under some additional, natural technical assumption there exists a family of orthogonal polynomial martingales. More precisely we show that such a family of processes is completely characterized by the sequence {(α_n, p_n)}_{n ? 0} where α′_ns are some positive reals while p′_ns are some monic orthogonal polynomials. Bakry and Mazet (Séminaire de Probabilit?s, vol. 37, 2003) showed that under some additional mild technical conditions each such sequence generates some stationary Markov process with polynomial regression.

We single out two important subclasses of the considered class of Markov processes. The class of harnesses that we characterize completely. The second one constitutes of the processes that have independent regression property and are stationary. Processes with independent regression property so to say generalize ordinary Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) processes or can also be understood as time scale transformations of Lévy processes. We list several properties of these processes. In particular we show that if these process are time scale transforms of Lévy processes then they are not stationary unless we deal with classical OU process. Conversely, time scale transformations of stationary processes with independent regression property are not Lévy unless we deal with classical OU process.     

带利息力和干扰的批量索赔一般到达风险模型

本文在经典风险模型的基础上,将索赔到达过程推广为更新过程,索赔可以批量到达,且带有常数利息力和Brown运动干扰项,得到一个新的风险模型,运用Markov骨架过程的方法,得出盈余过程的瞬时分布和生存概率.