基于道路堵塞及顾客时间要求的快件配送最优路径选择

针对道路堵塞如节假日导致的临时最短配送路径失效的问题,提出配送网络最优路径选择模型,并设计了求解快递配送网络关键边和最优路径的算法。首先,计算出整个网络的关键边,掌握配送网络特征;其次,考虑顾客时间要求,研究不完全信息(中断无法提前预知,只有到达中断边的起点处才可知)下的最优路径,根据最短路径上各边新的特点,计算出每条边中断后对应的一组备用路径,再选择运输时间小于或等于顾客可等待时间的路径为有效路径,考虑道路堵塞情况,从有效路径中选择最优路径;最后,结合配送网络的实际情况对最优路径进行了算例分析。     

考虑个体保单风险特征的最优奖惩系统

奖惩系统在汽车保险中的应用非常普遍。论文首先介绍和讨论了泊松-伽马假设下的最优奖惩系统及其性质;其次在假设个体保单的索赔频率服从二项分布,而二项分布的一个参数服从贝塔分布的条件下,建立了一种考虑个体保单风险特征信息的最优奖惩系统,其中风险特征信息可以通过广义线性模型的形式引入奖惩系统;然后在假设个体保单的索赔频率服从负二项分布,而负二项分布的一个参数服从贝塔分布的条件下,建立了另一个最优奖惩系统;最后讨论了这两个奖惩系统的性质和应用。     

产品失效率的验前分布稳健性分析

研究Bayes统计分析中利用验前信息的稳健性.首先,用一般方法研究了指数寿命型分布中失效率的验前分布的稳健性.然后利用Gamma分布函数的典型性质,并以平方损失下的后验期望损失为判别准则,讨论了失效率的最优Bayes稳健区间.给出了失效率的最优Bayes稳健点估计.     

OPTIMAL MODELS FOR THE FIRST ARRIVAL TIME DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION IN CONTINUOUS TIME－WITH A SPECIAL CASE

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Determining the optimal probing lot size for the wafer probe operation in semiconductor manufacturing

In this study, we reformulated the problem of wafer probe operation in semiconductor manufacturing to consider a probe machine (PM) which has a discrete Weibull shift distribution with a nondecreasing failure rate. To maintain the imperfect PM during the probing of a lot of wafers, a minimal repair policy is introduced with type II inspection error. To increase the productivity of the PM, this paper aims to find an optimal probing lot size that minimizes the expected average processing time per wafer. Conditions and uniqueness for the optimal lot size are explored. The special case of a geometric shift distribution is studied to find a tighter upper bound on the optimal lot size than in previous study. Numerical examples are performed to evaluate the impacts of minimal repair on the optimal lot size. In addition, the adequacy of using a geometric shift distribution is examined when the actual shift distribution has an increasing failure rate.     

Optimal Policies for Investment with Time-Varying Return Distributions

We develop a model in which investors must learn the distribution of asset returns over time. The process of learning is made more difficult by the fact that the distributions are not constant through time. We consider risk-neutral investors who have quadratic utility and are selecting between two risky assets. We determine the time at which it is optimal to update the distribution estimate and hence, alter portfolio weights. Our results deliver an optimal policy for asset allocation, that is, the sequence of time intervals at which it is optimal to switch between assets, based on stochastic optimal control theory. In addition, we determine the time intervals in which asset switching leads to a loss with high probability. We provide estimates of the effectiveness of the optimal policy.     

Optimal design in axial motion for several frequency constraints

Governing equations for the optimal design of a rod with tip mass subject to several constraints on natural frequency are developed. The relation of this mass distribution to the globally optimum design for lowest frequency is discussed. A numerical example for two frequencies is presented. Some continuity results concerning the optimal mass distribution are presented.     

定数截尾试验下两参数Weibull分布尺度参数的最优稳健Bayes估计

以Г-后验期望损失作为标准,研究了定数截尾试验下两参数W e ibu ll分布尺度参数θ的最优稳健Bayes估计问题.假设尺度参数θ的先验分布在分布族Г上变化,形状参数β已知时,在0-1损失下,得到了θ的最优稳健区间估计,在均方损失下得到θ的最优稳健点估计及区间估计;β未知时,得到了θ的最优稳健点估计及区间估计.最后给出了数值例子,说明了方法的有效性.     

Opportunity-based age replacement with a one-cycle criterion

In this paper age replacement (AR) and opportunity-based age replacement (OAR) for a unit are considered, based on a one-cycle criterion, both for a known and unknown lifetime distribution. In the literature, AR and OAR strategies are mostly based on a renewal criterion, but in particular when the lifetime distribution is not known and data of the process are used to update the lifetime distribution, the renewal criterion is less appropriate and the one-cycle criterion becomes an attractive alternative. Conditions are determined for the existence of an optimal replacement age T^* in an AR model and optimal threshold age T_opp^* in an OAR model, using a one-cycle criterion and a known lifetime distribution. In the optimal threshold age T_opp^*, the corresponding minimal expected costs per unit time are equal to the expected costs per unit time in an AR model. It is also shown that for a lifetime distribution with increasing hazard rate, the optimal threshold age is smaller than the optimal replacement age. For unknown lifetime distribution, AR and OAR strategies are considered within a nonparametric predictive inferential (NPI) framework. The relationship between the NPI-based expected costs per unit time in an OAR model and those in an AR model is investigated. A small simulation study is presented to illustrate this NPI approach.     

The performance evaluation of a multi-stage JIT production system with stochastic demand and production capacities

This paper discusses a single-item, multi-stage, serial Just-in-Time (JIT) production system with stochastic demand and production capacities. The JIT production system is modeled as a discrete-time, M/G/1-type Markov chain. A necessary and sufficient condition, or a stability condition, under which the system has a steady-state distribution is derived. A performance evaluation algorithm is then developed using the matrix analytic methods. In numerical examples, the optimal numbers of kanbans are determined by the proposed algorithm. The optimal numbers of kanbans are robust for the variations in production capacity distribution and demand distribution.     

Congruential Inventory Model for Two-Echelon Distribution Systems

Large-scale inventory-distribution systems typically comprise a hierarchy of warehouses that stock goods for distribution to retailers at which demand for these goods originates. This paper develops an inventory model for two-echelon distribution systems under the assumption that the central warehouse and retailers order periodically. Characteristics of the optimal policy are described. An iterative solution procedure is presented to find optimal or near optimal operating-policy variables. Solutions of the model to a large number of test examples show that the model outperforms other existing models in the literature without sacrificing the computation time. Tested against the lower bounds on the optimal average annual variable cost obtained by removing some of the ordering costs, the solutions of the present model are found to be near optimal.     

Optimal scaling of random-walk metropolis algorithms on general target distributions

One main limitation of the existing optimal scaling results for Metropolis–Hastings algorithms is that the assumptions on the target distribution are unrealistic. In this paper, we consider optimal scaling of random-walk Metropolis algorithms on general target distributions in high dimensions arising from practical MCMC models from Bayesian statistics. For optimal scaling by maximizing expected squared jumping distance (ESJD), we show the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate 0.234 can be obtained under general realistic sufficient conditions on the target distribution. The new sufficient conditions are easy to be verified and may hold for some general classes of MCMC models arising from Bayesian statistics applications, which substantially generalize the product i.i.d. condition required in most existing literature of optimal scaling. Furthermore, we show one-dimensional diffusion limits can be obtained under slightly stronger conditions, which still allow dependent coordinates of the target distribution. We also connect the new diffusion limit results to complexity bounds of Metropolis algorithms in high dimensions.     

Estimation risk and stability of optimal portfolio composition

The mean-variance portfolio models indicate that for optimal investment decisions, the ‘true’ ex-ante values of the model parameters should be used. Instead, in practice, ex-post parameter estimates are used. If in the estimation process, the probability distribution of estimators is not known, there is a problem of estimation risk. This paper investigates the impact of estimation risk on the composition of optimal portfolios. As the multivariance distribution of the vector of optimal portfolio weights allocated to risky assets is analytically intractable, a use of the Monte Carlo simulation experimental is made. This study suggests that the composition of optimal portfolio is relatively more stable when the estimates of model parameters are obtained from longer series of historical observations or the expected portfolio return is low.     

一个组合分布模型及其参数估计

本文根据极值分布理论,提出了一个由原始分布和尾分布组成的组合分布模型,研究了组合分布模型中原始分布和尾分布的确定方法,建立了组合分布模型参数估计的加权最优化模型,实例计算说明,组合分布较好地反映了风险变量极值事件的风险。     

Optimization of axisymmetric membrane shells

Problems of the joint optimization of the shape and distribution along the meridian of the thickness of membrane shells of revolution under the action of axisymmetric loads are considered, taking account of the constraints concerning the strength of the shell and the volume of its cavity. General formulations of problems of the optimal design of shells of revolution are given and the optimal shape of a shell and the corresponding thickness distribution are investigated. Results of the exact solution of problems of the optimal design of closed shells of revolution when there is an internal pressure are presented. The simultaneous introduction of two control functions, describing the shape of the shell and the distribution of its thickness, not only ensures a substantial reduction in the mass of a shell but also leads to significant mathematical simplifications, which enable the solution of the optimization problem being considered to be obtained in an analytical form.     

Optimal XL-insurance under Wasserstein-type ambiguity

We study the problem of optimal insurance contract design for risk management under a budget constraint. The contract holder takes into consideration that the loss distribution is not entirely known and therefore faces an ambiguity problem. For a given set of models, we formulate a minimax optimization problem of finding an optimal insurance contract that minimizes the distortion risk functional of the retained loss with premium limitation. We demonstrate that under the average value-at-risk measure, the entrance-excess of loss contracts are optimal under ambiguity, and we solve the distributionally robust optimal contract-design problem. It is assumed that the insurance premium is calculated according to a given baseline loss distribution and that the ambiguity set of possible distributions forms a neighborhood of the baseline distribution. To this end, we introduce a contorted Wasserstein distance. This distance is finer in the tails of the distributions compared to the usual Wasserstein distance.     

Censored lifetime learning: Optimal Bayesian age-replacement policies

We consider a sequence of age-replacement problems with a general lifetime distribution parametrized by an a-priori unknown parameter. There is a trade-off: Preventive replacements are censored but cheap, whereas corrective replacements are uncensored but costly observations of the lifetime distribution. We first analyze the optimal policy for a finite sequence and establish some properties. We then propose a myopic Bayesian policy that almost surely learns the unknown parameter and converges to the optimal policy with full knowledge of the parameter.     

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In the situation of \rho-mixing dependent sequences, this paper studied the mean square error and the optimal bandwidth of distribution kernel estimator nu_{p,h} of VaR. And the optimal bandwidth minimized the mean square error. The density function of Laplace distribution is used in the calculation of bandwidth and we adopt the method of interpolation to compute specific value of bandwidth in this paper. According to the numerical simulations, the distribution kernel estimator is more accurate by comparing the performance of VaR distribution kernel estimation with a common order statistic. Finally, Shangzheng A-share index and Shenzheng B-share index are chosen for an empirical research, which concludes that the risk of the latter is significantly higher than that of the former.     

Asymptotic behavior of the expected optimal value of the multidimensional assignment problem

The Multidimensional Assignment Problem (MAP) is a higher-dimensional version of the Linear Assignment Problem that arises in the areas of data association, target tracking, resource allocation, etc. This paper elucidates the question of asymptotical behavior of the expected optimal value of the large-scale MAP whose assignment costs are independent identically distributed random variables with a prescribed probability distribution. We demonstrate that for a broad class of continuous distributions the limiting value of the expected optimal cost of the MAP is determined by the location of the left endpoint of the support set of the distribution, and construct asymptotical bounds for the expected optimal cost.     

An informational distance for estimating the faithfulness of a possibility distribution,viewed as a family of probability distributions,with respect to data

An acknowledged interpretation of possibility distributions in quantitative possibility theory is in terms of families of probabilities that are upper and lower bounded by the associated possibility and necessity measures. This paper proposes an informational distance function for possibility distributions that agrees with the above-mentioned view of possibility theory in the continuous and in the discrete cases. Especially, we show that, given a set of data following a probability distribution, the optimal possibility distribution with respect to our informational distance is the distribution obtained as the result of the probability-possibility transformation that agrees with the maximal specificity principle. It is also shown that when the optimal distribution is not available due to representation bias, maximizing this possibilistic informational distance provides more faithful results than approximating the probability distribution and then applying the probability-possibility transformation. We show that maximizing the possibilistic informational distance is equivalent to minimizing the squared distance to the unknown optimal possibility distribution. Two advantages of the proposed informational distance function is that (i) it does not require the knowledge of the shape of the probability distribution that underlies the data, and (ii) it amounts to sum up the elementary terms corresponding to the informational distance between the considered possibility distribution and each piece of data. We detail the particular case of triangular and trapezoidal possibility distributions and we show that any unimodal unknown probability distribution can be faithfully upper approximated by a triangular distribution obtained by optimizing the possibilistic informational distance.