A multivariate adaptive regression splines cutting plane approach for solving a two-stage stochastic programming fleet assignment model

The fleet assignment model assigns a fleet of aircraft types to the scheduled flight legs in an airline timetable published six to twelve weeks prior to the departure of the aircraft. The objective is to maximize profit. While costs associated with assigning a particular fleet type to a leg are easy to estimate, the revenues are based upon demand, which is realized close to departure. The uncertainty in demand makes it challenging to assign the right type of aircraft to each flight leg based on forecasts taken six to twelve weeks prior to departure. Therefore, in this paper, a two-stage stochastic programming framework has been developed to model the uncertainty in demand, along with the Boeing concept of demand driven dispatch to reallocate aircraft closer to the departure of the aircraft. Traditionally, two-stage stochastic programming problems are solved using the L-shaped method. Due to the slow convergence of the L-shaped method, a novel multivariate adaptive regression splines cutting plane method has been developed. The results obtained from our approach are compared to that of the L-shaped method, and the value of demand-driven dispatch is estimated.     

居民生活私人交通碳排放驱动因素的“三级分解”模型

突破以往采用难以保证精确性估算数据的局限,根据居民生活私人交通所消耗的能源种类,利用官方统计年鉴中的数据,在保证数据真实性的基础上,基于扩展的IPAT与LMDI模型,构建一个包含居民私人交通碳排放强度、碳排放结构、交通消费倾向、收入、家庭规模与户数6个因素的居民私人交通碳排放驱动因素的"三级分解模型",对居民生活私人碳排放及其驱动因素进行核算.结果建议进一步降低居民私人交通碳排放强度,提高居民能源消费的利用效率;同时鼓励发展小排量与新能源汽车消费,并且大力发展公共交通,倡导居民出行多采用公共交通工具出行,引导节能减排的出行方式.     

A hybrid and integrated approach to evaluate and prevent disasters

Disasters are, by their nature, very complex phenomena. Their modelling using a systematic and logical methodology can help us identify their root causes and may facilitate in allocating appropriate resources to prevent such situations. Although techniques exist to model such phenomena, a single off-the-shelf model is insufficient to provide an effective and realistic analysis to prevent disasters due to its inherent assumptions. In order to overcome these limitations of single methods, this article proposes a hybrid model of four methods to optimise a safety investment. First, a hierarchy is constructed with a problem structuring approach. Second, a new graphical representation, the Crisis Tree Analysis, is introduced to visualise how a combination of basic events may lead to a disaster. Third, the criticality of each event is assessed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Finally, a mathematical programming model is proposed to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds in order to avoid the disaster. A case study of the Bhopal disaster is used to illustrate the proposed four-step method.     

基于模糊聚类分析的教师课堂教学质量评价

用模糊聚类的方法对教师的课堂教学进行分类分析,选取合适的相似系数,建立模糊相似矩阵,用直接聚类法进行分类,它不能实现我们传统意义的名次排序,但它很好的实现了量化评价和质性评价的结合,实现了评价的诊断功能,为信息反馈提供了依据,充分发挥了评价的导向和激励功能.     

Selective responses by entropy minimization

In this paper, we propose a method of entropy minimization for increasing selectivity and obtaining simple network architectures. An entropy function is defined with respect to the state of hidden units. By minimizing this entropy, the selectivity of hidden units can significantly be increased. Since a unit tends to respond to specific input patterns, the meaning or the function of the hidden units can easily be understood. In addition, we have observed that by minimizing the entropy, some units are forced to be inactive, responding to no input patterns. Thus, these inactive units can be deleted, and we can construct smaller network architectures. We applied the entropy method to standard and recurrent back-propagation. Experimental results confirmed that the number of units selectively responding to a specific pattern increased gradually, while units with low selectivity responding to multiple patterns decreased as entropy decreased. In addition, the number of units responding to no input patterns increased in proportion to the decrease of the entropy. These results show that the entropy minimization method can be used to improve the selectivity, and therefore, the interpretability of the network's behaviors. Then, the method can be used to suppress unnecessary units and to produce simple internal representation or simple network architectures.     

Using the Tower of Hanoi puzzle to infuse your mathematics classroom with computer science concepts

This article suggests that logic puzzles, such as the well-known Tower of Hanoi puzzle, can be used to introduce computer science concepts to mathematics students of all ages. Mathematics teachers introduce their students to computer science concepts that are enacted spontaneously and subconsciously throughout the solution to the Tower of Hanoi puzzle. These concepts include, but are not limited to, conditionals, iteration, and recursion. Lessons, such as the one proposed in this article, are easily implementable in mathematics classrooms and extracurricular programmes as they are good candidates for ‘drop in’ lessons that do not need to fit into any particular place in the typical curriculum sequence. As an example for readers, the author describes how she used the puzzle in her own Number Sense and Logic course during the federally funded Upward Bound Math/Science summer programme for college-intending low-income high school students. The article explains each computer science term with real-life and mathematical examples, applies each term to the Tower of Hanoi puzzle solution, and describes how students connected the terms to their own solutions of the puzzle. It is timely and important to expose mathematics students to computer science concepts. Given the rate at which technology is currently advancing, and our increased dependence on technology in our daily lives, it has become more important than ever for children to be exposed to computer science. Yet, despite the importance of exposing today's children to computer science, many children are not given adequate opportunity to learn computer science in schools. In the United States, for example, most students finish high school without ever taking a computing course. Mathematics lessons, such as the one described in this article, can help to make computer science more accessible to students who may have otherwise had little opportunity to be introduced to these increasingly important concepts.     

Van Gulick’s solution of the exclusion problem revisited

The anti-reductionist who wants to preserve the causal efficacy of mental phenomena faces several problems in regard to mental causation, i.e. mental events which cause other events, arising from her desire to accept the ontological primacy of the physical and at the same time save the special character of the mental. Psychology tries to persuade us of the former, appealing thereby to the results of experiments carried out in neurology; the latter is, however, deeply rooted in our everyday actions and beliefs and despite the constant opposition of science still very much alive. Difficulties, however, arise from a combination of two claims that are widely accepted in philosophy of mind, namely, physical monism and mental realism, the acceptance of which leads us to the greatest problem of mental causation: the problem of causal exclusion. Since physical causes alone are always sufficient for physical effects mental properties are excluded from causal explanations of our behaviour, which makes them “epiphenomenal”. The article introduces Van Gulick’s solution to the exclusion problem which tries to prove that physical properties, in contrast to mental properties, do not have as much of a privileged status with respect to event causation as usually ascribed. Therefore, it makes no sense to say that physical properties are causally relevant whereas mental properties are not. This is followed by my objection to his argument for levelling mental and physical properties with respect to causation of events. I try to show that Van Gulick’s argument rests on a premise that no serious physicalist can accept. Also called The Problem of Causal Exclusion.     

Providing operational analysis to a peace support operation: the Kosovo experience

The Operational Analysis (OA) Branch of the HQ ARRC deployed into Kosovo concurrently with the withdrawal of Serbian forces. The authors, all members of the Operational Analysis Branch, were responsible for providing general scientific, and more specifically Operational Research, advice to General Jackson, Commander of the Kosovo Force. This paper outlines the work done by OA Branch leading up to, and during the challenging period from the first deployment of troops into Kosovo in June 1999 to October 1999. The work of the branch was in two major sections; the first, support to returning Kosovo to normality and the second, to monitor the compliance of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) with the undertaking to demilitarise. OA Branch provided not only the military with work to quantify the return to normality, but also worked with and provided data to aid agencies. The work ranged from assessments of damage to the infrastructure of Kosovo, particularly the housing, through to the monitoring of crime. The population estimates produced by the branch corrected the emotive image being produced in the media, and became the subject of an international press conference. OA Branch's weekly Compliance Monitoring report was the authoritative document for checking on the progress of the UCK towards demilitarisation; this coupled with work on trends in violence were regularly briefed to the KFOR Commander.     

Tilting equivalences: From hereditary algebras to symmetric groups

We study Koszul duality for finite dimensional hereditary algebras, and various generalisations to trivial extension algebras, to Schur algebras, to doubles of Schur bialgebras, and to deformations of doubles of Schur bialgebras. We describe applications to the modular representation theory of symmetric groups.     

Linear Programming Techniques for the Construction of Palatable Human Diets

Mathematical modelling of the relationship between acceptable diets and satisfactory nutrition is discussed. The classical minimum-cost diet problem is unsuited to most purposes in human dietetics, since the objective of least monetary cost leads to diets which are unpalatable, both generally and to individuals. In this paper a different approach, using an objective function based on the food preferences of individuals, is described. A computational method, based on this analysis, for constructing individually acceptable diets by means of linear programming is described. Careful use of post-optimal analysis provides invaluable insight to individual patients, and their medical advisors, on the changes to their eating habits which will most readily enable them to meet nutrient intake targets. An example, using data appropriate to a patient with chronic renal failure, demonstrates the usefulness to nutritionists and dietitians of this approach to dietary recommendations.     

Auctions with bidder-determined allowable combinations

Combinatorial auctions are desirable as they enable bidders to express the synergistic values of a group of assets and thus may lead to better allocations. Compared to other types of auctions, they keep bidders from being exposed to risks (of receiving only parts of combinations that would be valuable to them) or from being overly cautious (in order to minimize such risks). However, computation time needed to determine the set of optimal winning combinations in a general combinatorial auction may grow exponentially as the auction size increases, and this is sometimes given as a reason for not using combinatorial auctions. To determine the winning allocation in a reasonable time, a bid taker might try to limit the kinds of allowable combinations, but bidders may disagree on what combinations should be allowed, and this may make limiting the allowable combinations politically infeasible.This paper proposes and tests successfully a new approach to managing the computational complexity of determining the set of winning combinations. The main idea is to let bidders themselves determine and prioritize the allowable combinations. Using bidder-determined combinations has two nice properties. First, by delegating the decision on what is biddable to the bidders who know what combinations are important to them, the bid taker is able to be (and appear) fair. Second, since bidders know their economics and have the incentive to get important combinations included, bidder prioritization of combinations will tend to assure that the most economically-important combinations are included in determining the winning set of bids if the bid taker is not able to consider all of the combinations submitted by bidders. The proposed auction process is useful in situations, such as government auctions, in which the bid taker is reluctant to limit the allowable combinations.     

数学建模视角下的教育量化研究

以对人教A版高中必修教材使用顺序研究的技术路线为例,即从概念到变量—从变量到数据—从数据到模型—从模型到计算结果—从计算结果到揭示、解释教育规律的模式,说明数学建模是量化研究的核心,量化研究的本质就是通过建立数学模型以达到解决相关教育问题的目的.     

The utility of returns to scale in DEA programming: An analysis of Michigan rural hospitals

In 1984, Banker, Charnes, and Cooper introduced the capability of using data envelopment analysis to assess increasing, decreasing, or constant returns to scale. This analysis would appear to make an important contribution to the health care field because of the regulatory environment within which the industry exists and the competition among hospitals for additional services and capacity. In many states, hospitals must submit a “certificate of need” to prove eligibility to add capacity or services. Agency administrators at the state level should analyze each hospital's production performance to determine the effectiveness of resource utilization. Residents of a state where hospitals are regulated need to know the effectiveness of agencies in allowing resources to be properly allocated to hospitals. Returns to scale analysis can help provide answers to these concerns. We examine Michigan rural hospitals and propose a simple, yet logical procedure for evaluating returns to scale for technically inefficient hospitals.     

基于主客观信息综合判断的非线性拉开档次法

针对以最大程度的拉开被评价对象间差异的综合评价问题,通过分析线性拉开档次法存在的局限性,本文提出了一种基于主客观信息综合判断的非线性拉开档次法,旨在进一步丰富和完善拉开档次法的理论知识。首先对线性拉开档次法进行简单的介绍,并分析了线性拉开档次法的局限性;然后提出前提假设,给出非线性因子选取的原则以及确定指标序关系的方法,并给出排序后相邻指标重要程度比值的选取方法,根据评价原则利用规划模型求解各评价指标的权重系数,利用求得的指标权重采用非线性集结模型计算最终的评价结果;最后用一个算例验证了方法的有效性。     

上海股票市场收益的随机波浪模型

对金融资产收益分布状况的主要研究方法是先提出分布模型,然后进行实验验证;因缺乏必要的机理分析和研究手段单一,使其理论研究和应用研究都受到一定的制约.为克服这些不足,将金融资产收益联系起来看,根据其涨跌周期性构建出随机波浪模型,并利用模型导出随机波浪波高和周期的分布公式.通过实证分析,证明随机波浪模型具有一定的适用性;所用的时频分析方法以及所得结论有益于对金融资产收益分布状况进行更深入的理论和应用研究,也有益于指导市场参与者进行短期和长期交易.     

Building Complex Solutions From Simple Solutions in the Animation Tutor: Task Completion

The goal of this project, an animation-based tutor for algebra word problems, is to build instructional software to improve estimation, reasoning, and problem-solving skills. In this study, we focused on the 2nd (task completion) module, which uses tank-filling problems in which the unknown variable is the time it will take to fill a tank. Students build on the answers to a simple (no leak) problem to estimate, and then calculate, answers to problems in which there is a leak in the bottom of the tank, a leak in the side of the tank, and a delay in starting one of the pipes. We evaluated the software in an intermediate algebra class consisting of a diverse group of students at a community college. We use the findings to discuss what works (estimation and the solution of the simpler problems) and to make recommendations on how to improve use of the decomposition method for solving the more complex problems.     

From Classroom to Online Teaching: Experiences in Improving Statistics Education

This study used reflective practitioner methodology to investigate how to improve the quality of statistical education. During the study, this methodology, curricula, pedagogical practices, assessment and a framework for learning to learn statistics were all developed as means of improving the quality of statistical education. Also documented was the move from being a classroom teacher of statistics to a teacher who is developing learning resources for online delivery to students. For a classroom teacher, flexible delivery has meant drawing on the sights, sounds, movement, quiet and live shows. By contrast, the online teacher feels the constraints of translating activity based programs to technologically based programs. As more students have chosen to rely on online materials rather than classroom activities, the focus of improving quality has been extended to the enrichment of online resources, so that the learning experience is not second to that of the classroom.     

Capturing preferences for inequality aversion in decision support

We investigate the situation where there is interest in ranking distributions (of income, of wealth, of health, of service levels) across a population, in which individuals are considered preferentially indistinguishable and where there is some limited information about social preferences. We use a natural dominance relation, generalised Lorenz dominance, used in welfare comparisons in economic theory. In some settings there may be additional information about preferences (for example, if there is policy statement that one distribution is preferred to another) and any dominance relation should respect such preferences. However, characterising this sort of conditional dominance relation (specifically, dominance with respect to the set of all symmetric increasing quasiconcave functions in line with given preference information) turns out to be computationally challenging. This challenge comes about because, through the assumption of symmetry, any one preference statement (“I prefer giving $100 to Jane and $110 to John over giving $150 to Jane and $90 to John”) implies a large number of other preference statements (“I prefer giving $110 to Jane and $100 to John over giving $150 to Jane and $90 to John”; “I prefer giving $100 to Jane and $110 to John over giving $90 to Jane and $150 to John”). We present theoretical results that help deal with these challenges and present tractable linear programming formulations for testing whether dominance holds between any given pair of distributions. We also propose an interactive decision support procedure for ranking a given set of distributions and demonstrate its performance through computational testing.     

Theoretical challenges towards cutting-plane selection

While many classes of cutting-planes are at the disposal of integer programming solvers, our scientific understanding is far from complete with regards to cutting-plane selection, i.e., the task of selecting a portfolio of cutting-planes to be added to the LP relaxation at a given node of the branch-and-bound tree. In this paper we review the different classes of cutting-planes available, known theoretical results about their relative strength, important issues pertaining to cut selection, and discuss some possible new directions to be pursued in order to accomplish cutting-plane selection in a more principled manner. Finally, we review some lines of work that we undertook to provide a preliminary theoretical underpinning for some of the issues related to cut selection.     

Algebra at the Turn of the Century

At the turn of the century it seems to be appropriate to pause and to try to envision future possibilities. We want to discuss the prospects of algebra. To look into the future requires an understanding of the past, the longstanding aims, but also the difficulties which have been encountered. We are going to review part of the history of algebra in order to outline its present state. It is important to notice the missed opportunities and to analyze the reasons. To recognize the present possibilities requires to be aware of the tools which now are available and which may not yet have been used in an optimal way. We urge the reader to focus attention to the need for algebraic considerations in all parts of mathematics but also outside of mathematics. Of course, a view back should also strengthen the interest in classical open problems which now may be feasible to attack.This is a the written version of a lecture presented at the National Conference on Algebra VII, held in Beijing Normal University, October 1999.