企业联盟发展的力学分析与联盟策略

企业联盟能通过资源共享促进企业可持续竞争优势形成和企业成长。企业联盟成长包括联盟运行和联盟发展两个维度,企业联盟发展受联盟力的影响,而联盟企业、联盟力及其作用效果满足经典力学理论,据此构建企业联盟发展的力学模型,并通过对其公式推导,得到企业联盟发展的四大定理——"偏利共生"定理、"宇称不对称"定理、"大数中心"定理和"动态自稳定"定理及相关推论,而算例分析也对定理进行了验证,最后,相应提出了企业联盟发展的联盟网络、领先跟随、动态平衡与选择培育策略。     

基于合作博弈的买方抗衡势力市场绩效与卖方工艺创新强度分析

设计了由一个上游企业和两个下游企业所构成的产业链纵向关系模型,建立了纵向一体化、纵向分离且下游企业均无买方抗衡势力、以及单个下游企业具有买方抗衡势力三种情况下上游企业的工艺创新强度计算模型,分析了下游企业存在买方抗衡势力时市场中均衡的批发价格、零售价格、企业利润以及社会福利的变化,给出了相应的结论,同时也说明了“加尔布雷斯假说”在本文的结构下没有得到验证。     

安全生产监管的博弈论分析

分析了国家、地方管理部门和企业三者的相互关系,建立博弈数学模型,并分析了如何保证企业安全生产和如何防止地方管理部门与企业合谋.     

企业技术创新能力评价新方法的研究

企业发展的核心竞争力是技术创新能力,公正客观的评价企业的技术创新能力十分必要,研究新型的企业技术创新能力评价方法对企业的成长和可持续发展有所帮助。本文较为全面的分析了企业技术创新能力的概念、内涵与特征,并对现有的评价方法进行了调研和对比分析。提出企业技术创新能力评价分析时应将企业持续创新能力和经济效益作为评价的重要内容,研究并构建了包括创新支撑和创新主体两个二级指标在内的新的企业技术创新能力评价指标体系,并对指标的重要性进行了划分,以期为企业评价技术创新能力提供参考。     

研发产出随机下基于CVaR的供应链纵向R&D合作模型

企业的研发活动具有高度风险性和不确定性,研发最终输出结果很难预料.在假设研发产出随机的基础上,构建了由1个风险厌恶的上游企业和n个风险中性的下游企业组成的供应链纵向研发合作模型,上下游企业采用固定比率分担法分摊研发费用,利用条件风险估值CVaR理论,研究了上游企业的风险规避度和RJV规模对企业利润、消费者剩余和社会福利的影响.研究结果表明,当上游企业的风险规避度增大时,上游企业的目标函数值、下游成员企业的利润以及消费者剩余、社会福利都会随之增大.上游企业的目标函数值随着RJV规模的增大而增大,而下游成员企业利润和社会福利先是随着RJV规模的增大而增大而后则随着RJV规模的增大而减小.     

制造业企业的股权结构对企业绩效影响的实证研究

股权结构是企业有效治理的基础,优化股权结构是提高企业绩效的关键.对此国内外学者进行了相关研究,但结果并不一致.在综合考虑了企业的生命周期和行业性质的前提下,探讨了股权结构对企业绩效的影响,选取制造业行业1190家企业2012-2015年的相关变量数据,首先采用主成分综合得分法计算出企业绩效,之后选用现金流组合法按照各自所处的生命周期对企业进行分类,最后在各时期内分别构建回归模型来分析股权结构对企业绩效的作用,并进行了模型验证.股权集中度对企业绩效的影响分为三类：处于导入期、成熟期和淘汰期的企业影响关系呈正U型,处于增长期的企业与其绩效显著负相关,衰退期企业的影响并不显著.股权制衡度对企业绩效的影响分为两类：处于成熟期、淘汰期的企业影响关系呈倒U型,导入期、增长期、衰退期影响则不显著.     

基于产品创新的企业R&D联盟形成的博弈分析

针对基于产品创新的企业R&D联盟形成过程,建立了一个包含信任、企业学习能力和技术溢出率在内的博弈模型,并利用该模型分析了不同状态下企业的最优预期利润,最后得出了不同状态下企业结盟与否的结论.分析结果表明,企业的最优预期利润是信任、企业学习能力、技术溢出率的函数,这些因素对于企业结盟与否有重要影响,最优预期利润的不同导致了关于联盟形成的不同结论.     

湖南省企业生命周期测度及其影响因素分析

本文运用生命表方法对湖南省1980年-2007年期间新成立企业的生存状况进行了测度和分析,通过考察企业生存时间的分位数、在指定时间的平均剩余寿命和在指定时间内的平均存活时间等指标,对不同城、行业、资本规模、所有制类型和成立时间的企业进行了比较研究。结果表明,不同城市、行业、资本规模、所有制类型和成立时间的企业生存时间存在较大差异,我国企业生存状况不仅受到西方传统产业组织理论中企业所在地域、行业和规模的影响,还受到由中国国情所决定的所有制性质和成立时间的影响。     

企业数据质量与经济发展水平的关系:基于Benford法则的实证研究

针对1999-2011年中国工业企业和城市经济统计数据,利用Benford法则对中国工业企业财务数据进行了质量检验和分析。结果显示中国工业企业的资产、纳税数据质量相对较好,销售和成本数据可能存在质量问题,有证据表明工业企业在销售等数据上有调整的可能性,数据质量需引起注意。同时对影响企业数据质量的宏观经济因素进行了分析,结果表明人均GDP、人均工业总产值和农村人口较多的地区工业企业数据质量可能较差,体现了经济环境和治理环境对企业的数据统计与公布的影响。本文建议经济发展较好区域需加大对企业数据统计的管理,尤其应关注企业的销售等相关数据。     

企业经营敏捷性的评价指标体系和模糊综合评价

企业经营敏捷性由一系列指标来体现．4个一级指标分别是市场反应程度、企业组织桑性、企业管理适应性与企业文化创新性、企业经营业绩．4个一级指标又包含19个二级指标．运用模糊综合评价方法,构建了企业经营敏捷性的评价模型．依托实际案例,使用所建立的评价指标体系和评价模型,对实例企业进行了模糊综合评价,根据评价结果判断企业是否具备经营敏捷性．     

How to correctly calculate discounted healthcare costs and benefits

A feature of a healthcare policy (such as screening) with interventions at specific ages is that when it is introduced, part of the population is too old to participate in the full programme. This fact changes the formulae to be used for cost and benefit discounting in a non-intuitive way. General formulae are derived for the expected discounted costs and benefits of such health promotion policies, for a stationary population. Correct ways to calculate discounted costs and benefits via simulation are also described. The formulae have some surprising properties, for example the relative cost of two health policies does not depend on the discounting rate. They are also relevant to the ongoing debate over the correct discounting rate for benefits. It is shown that when health benefits follow quickly on treatments, varying the discounting rate for health benefits is merely equivalent to rescaling the cash value of a benefit. It is only when benefit follows long after treatment that the problem of choosing an appropriate discount rate for benefits cannot be simplified.     

浅论我国工业经济效益的发展趋势和提高的途径

近40多年来，我国的社会主义工业经济效益有的时期比较好，但大部分时期工业经济效益不高，有的时期考核工业经济效益的一些主要指标为负数，总体工业经济效益很不理想。本文从我国40多年来社会主义工业经济效益的发展史实中，描绘出这一时期我国工业经济效益的发展概况和轨迹，从而研究我国近期工业经济效益的发展趋势和提高工业经济效益的途径。     

Altruistic motives,uncertain lifetime and urban public pension replacement rates

This article employs an overlapping generations model with altruistic motives and uncertain lifetime to investigate China's urban public pension system. We examine the effects of the individual account benefit replacement rate, social pool benefit replacement rate, life expectancy and population growth rate on the capital-labour ratio, pension benefits, consumption and utility. We also find the optimal social pool benefit replacement rate. Raising the individual account benefit replacement rate only increases the individual account benefits. Raising the social pool benefit replacement rate increases the social pool benefits and retirement-period consumption, whereas decreases the capital-labour ratio, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility. The fall in the population growth rate increases the capital-labour ratio, social pool benefits, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility, whereas decreases the retirement-period consumption. The rise in the life expectancy decreases the six variables. The optimal social pool benefit replacement rate falls in case of either risen life expectancy or fallen population growth rate. It further falls under the joint case of risen life expectancy and fallen population growth rate. It will do more good than harm to raise the individual account benefit replacement rate, reduce the social pool benefit replacement rate and strictly implement the population policy.     

Urban public pension, replacement rates and population growth rate in China

This paper uses an overlapping generations model to investigate the urban public pension in China. It examines the effects of the replacement rates and population growth rate on the capital–labor ratio, pension benefits, consumption and utility, and finds the optimal replacement rate. It is shown that raising the individual account benefit replacement rate only induces the increase in the individual account benefits. Raising the social pool benefit replacement rate induces the increase in the social pool benefits and retirement-period consumption, while the decrease in the capital–labor ratio, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility. The fall in the population growth rate leads to the increase in the capital–labor ratio, social pool benefits, individual account benefits, working-period consumption and utility, and leads to a decrease in the retirement-period consumption. The optimal social pool benefit replacement rate depends on the individual discount factor, social discount factor, capital share of income and population growth rate, and it decreases in the case of falling population growth rates. It will do more good than harm to raise the individual account benefit replacement rate, reduce the social pool benefit replacement rate and strictly implement China’s population policy.     

Heterogeneity and increasing returns may drive socio-economic transitions

There are clear benefits associated with a particular consumer choice for many current markets. For example, as we consider here, some products might carry environmental or ‘green’ benefits. Some consumers might value these benefits while others do not. However, as evidenced by myriad failed attempts of environmental products to maintain even a niche market, such benefits do not necessarily outweigh the extra purchasing cost. The question we pose is, how can such an initially economically-disadvantaged green product evolve to hold the greater share of the market? We present a simple mathematical model for the dynamics of product competition in a heterogeneous consumer population. Our model preassigns a hierarchy to the products, which designates the consumer choice when prices are comparable, while prices are dynamically rescaled to reflect increasing returns to scale. Our approach allows us to model many scenarios of technology substitution and provides a method for generalizing market forces. With this model, we begin to forecast irreversible trends associated with consumer dynamics as well as policies that could be made to influence transitions.     

顾客忠诚计划作用机制研究

顾客忠诚计划作为一种重要的关系营销手段,已经越来越多的受到企业界和学术界的重视.基于以往关于忠诚计划的研究,从企业利益到顾客利益视角,提出基于顾客利益的忠诚计划作用机制,并进一步探讨关系价值对顾客忠诚的影响.结果显示关系价值对顾客忠诚的影响则主要是通过计划满意和计划忠诚两个中介变量间接实现的.     

乡村产业振兴“基地+农户”同创共享绿色供应链反馈仿真分析

针对养殖企业沼气沼肥供应链不可持续,产生二次污染严重影响生态环境,且农民增收乏力,乡村产业振兴难以推进现状,本文围绕生猪养殖业,并以南昌大学系统工程科研教学基地明鑫农场及周边亟待振兴的农户为例,提出构建"基地+农户"同创共享绿色供应链系统,运用系统动力学方法建立仿真模型,计算反馈环个数;然后结合仿真、反馈环及延迟三组合分析法,从社会效益、环境效益和经济效益三方面对该绿色供应链系统的振兴效益进行反馈仿真分析,并提出相应管理对策,为我国乡村产业振兴提供实践道路.     

智能运输系统综合效益评价指标体系及模糊综合评价

首先论述了智能运输系统 (ITS)效益综合评价的目的和意义 ,然后构建了相应的评价指标体系 .给出了综合效益评价方法和评价模型 ,运用二元比较法确定各指标的权重 ,最后进行了实例分析 .     

网络结构和信息披露对网络参与主体的收益影响研究

网络结构和网络上的信息披露机制对网络功能的发挥有着直接的影响,建立相应的数学模型并采用数学分析和仿真验证的手段揭示其对于网络参与主体收益的影响规律,具有理论和应用价值。在明确网络中两类参与主体的基础上,定义了他们的收益,并根据信息披露的不同情形,分为两种情况求解模型,应用数学证明和仿真分析的手段得到了网络结构对收益影响规律的三个结论。在对结论分析的基础上,指出了模型的管理学意义,讨论了进一步的研究工作。     

Operations of online advertising services and publisher's option

We analyse the use of options for online advertisement publishers. By providing a discount or rewards to advertisers, publishers can utilise their uncertain service capacity, page-views, more efficiently. We use Generalised Nash Bargaining to study the feasibility of the option contract and solve for an optimal value for the option price. We compare the revenues and benefits from advertisements under the option contract, with those without the options using numerical studies. We also study the impact of pricing and other components in the game on the optimal option price, the publisher's revenues, and the advertiser's benefits from the advertisements.