Probabilistic judgments specified partially in the analytic hierarchy process

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a decision-making tool which yields priorities for decision alternatives. This paper proposes a new approach to elicit and synthesize expert assessments for the group decision process in the AHP. These new elicitations are given as partial probabilistic specifications of the entries of pairwise comparisons matrices. For a particular entry of the matrix, the partial probabilistic elicitations could arise in the form of either probability assignments regarding the chance of that entry falling in specified intervals or selected quantiles for that entry. A new class of models is introduced to provide methods for processing this partial probabilistic information. One advantage of this approach is that it allows to generate as many pairwise comparison matrices of the decision alternatives as one desires. This, in turn, allows us to determine the statistical significance of the priorities of decision alternatives.     

Capital rationing problems under uncertainty and risk

Capital rationing is a major problem in managerial decision making. The classical mathematical formulation of the problem relies on a multi-dimensional knapsack model with known input parameters. Since capital rationing is carried out in conditions where uncertainty is the rule rather than the exception, the hypothesis of deterministic data limits the applicability of deterministic formulations in real settings. This paper proposes a stochastic version of the capital rationing problem which explicitly accounts for uncertainty. In particular, a mathematical formulation is provided in the framework of stochastic programming with joint probabilistic constraints and a novel solution approach is proposed. The basic model is also extended to include specific risk measures. Preliminary computational results are presented and discussed.     

Fuzzy stochastic linear programming: Survey and future research directions

In many real-life problems one has to base decision on information which is both fuzzily imprecise and probabilistically uncertain. Although consistency indexes providing a union nexus between possibilistic and probabilistic representation of uncertainty exist, there are no reliable transformations between them. This calls for new paradigms for incorporating the two kinds of uncertainty into mathematical models. Fuzzy stochastic linear programming is an attempt to fulfill this need. It deals with modelling and problem solving issues related to situations where randomness and fuzziness co-occur in a linear programming framework. In this paper we provide a survey of the essential elements, methods and algorithms for this class of linear programming problems along with promising research directions. Being a survey, the paper includes many references to both give due credit to results in the field and to help readers obtain more detailed information on issues of interest.     

Average Case Analysis in Database Problems

In a variety of applications ranging from environmental and health sciences to bioinformatics, it is essential that data collected in large databases are generated stochastically. This states qualitatively new problems both for statistics and for computer science. Namely, instead of deterministic (usually worst case) analysis, the average case analysis is needed for many standard database problems. Since both stochastic and deterministic methods and notation are used it causes additional difficulties for an investigation of such problems and for an exposition of results. We consider a general class of probabilistic models for databases and study a few problems in a probabilistic framework. In order to demonstrate the general approach, the problems for systems of database constraints (keys, functional dependencies and related) are investigated in more detail. Our approach is based on consequent using Rényi entropy as a main characteristic of uncertainty of distribution and Poisson approximation (Stein–Chen technique) of the corresponding probabilities.     

On a correspondence between probabilistic and fuzzy choice functions

Probabilistic and fuzzy choice functions are used to describe decision situations in which some degree of uncertainty or imprecision is involved. We propose a way to equate these two formalisms by means of residual implication operations. Furthermore, a set of new rationality conditions for probabilistic choice functions is proposed and proved to be sufficient to ensure that the associated fuzzy choice function is rational.     

An integrated decision support approach for project investors in risky and uncertain environments

In project investment decisions, it is often assumed that estimated values of project parameters are certain and they would not deviate by the time. However, project parameters normally change during a life cycle of the project. Therefore, an existence of a deviation or gap between forecasted values and actual values is inevitable. Because of the uncertainty of the future, forecasting the true and exact values of project parameters is almost impossible. In this study, an integrated decision support approach based on simulation and fuzzy set theory is proposed for project investors in risky and uncertain environments. This approach determines the risk levels of the projects and helps investors to make investment decisions. In the scope of the study, a flowchart is presented to guide to decision maker in different situations of information uncertainty that belongs to project parameter values. Via this flowchart, the values of project parameters can be chosen depending on how they are determined (deterministic, stochastic or fuzzy) by project analyst. Besides, calculating and analyzing the project risk in all possible situations would be easier. Illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the application of this approach.     

Inventory Models Involving Lead Time as a Decision Variable

Most of the literature dealing with inventory problems assumes lead time as prescribed, whether deterministic or probabilistic. In certain cases, lead time can be reduced but at an added cost. In this article we discuss inventory models where lead time is one of the decision variables.     

On some optimisation models in a fuzzy-stochastic environment

This paper is on fuzzy stochastic optimisation, an area that is quickly coming to the forefront of mathematical programming under uncertainty. An even stronger motivating factor for the growing interest in this area can be found in the ubiquitous nature of decision problems involving hybrid imprecision. More precisely, we consider a range of situations in which random factors and fuzzy information co-occur in an optimisation setting. Related hybrid optimisation models are discussed and converted into deterministic terms through appropriate tools like probabilistic set, uncertain probability, and fuzzy random variable, making good use of uncertainty principles. We also discuss ways to deal with the resulting problems. Numerical examples carried out using class optimisation software demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches. We shall end this article by pointing out some of the challenges that currently occupy researchers in this emerging field.     

Performance-Reliability-Aided Decision-Making in Multiperson Quadratic Decision Games Against Jamming and Estimation Confrontations

The work presents an attainment of risk-averse cooperative solutions in multi-person, single-objective decision problems for practical situations of the probabilistic (rather than deterministic) nature of performance reliability, its consequences on measuring performance reliability, and the difference between predicting and designing for performance reliability. In particular, some novel research contributions include: (i) closed-loop performance assessment via a performance-information analysis; (ii) cooperative decision selection via a risk-value model; and (iii) risk-averse cooperative decision strategies against confrontations and noncooperation from a malevolent opponent and a stationary environment, respectively.     

PROMISE: A DSS for multiple objective stochastic linear programming problems

Most of the multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) methods which have been proposed in the last fifteen years suppose deterministic contexts, but because many real problems imply uncertainty, some methods have been recently developed to deal with MOLP problems in stochastic contexts. In order to help the decision maker (DM) who is placed before such stochastic MOLP problems, we have built a Decision Support System called PROMISE. On the one hand, our DSS enables the DM to identify many current stochastic contexts: risky situations and also situations of partial uncertainty. On the other hand, according to the nature of the uncertainty, our DSS enables the DM to choose the most appropriate interactive stochastic MOLP method among the available methods, if such a method exists, and to solve his problem via the chosen method.     

DS/AHP method: A mathematical analysis,including an understanding of uncertainty

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was developed to aid decision makers to rank or sort information based on a number of criteria. A recent advance is the DS/AHP method which incorporates the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence with AHP. This method allows judgements on groups of decision alternatives (DA) to be made, it also offers a measure of uncertainty in the final results. In this paper a mathematical analysis of DS/AHP is included, constructing the functional form of the preference weightings given to groups of DA. These functions allow an understanding of the appropriateness of the rating scale values used in the DS/AHP method, through evaluating the range of uncertainty able to be expressed by the decision maker.     

Heterogeneous uncertainties in cholesterol management

Physicians use clinical guidelines to inform judgment about therapy. Clinical guidelines do not address three important uncertainties: (1) uncertain relevance of tested populations to the individual patient, (2) the patient’s uncertain preferences among possible outcomes, and (3) uncertain subjective and financial costs of intervention. Unreliable probabilistic information is available for some of these uncertainties; no probabilities are available for others. The uncertainties are in the values of parameters and in the shapes of functions. We explore the usefulness of info-gap decision theory in patient-physician decision making in managing cholesterol level using clinical guidelines. Info-gap models of uncertainty provide versatile tools for quantifying diverse uncertainties. Info-gap theory provides two decision functions for evaluating alternative therapies. The robustness function assesses the confidence—in light of uncertainties—in attaining acceptable outcomes. The opportuneness function assesses the potential for better-than-anticipated outcomes. Both functions assist in forming preferences among alternatives. Hypothetical case studies demonstrate that decisions using the guidelines and based on best estimates of the expected utility are sometimes, but not always, consistent with robustness and opportuneness analyses. The info-gap analysis provides guidance when judgment suggests that a deviation from the guidelines would be productive. Finally, analysis of uncertainty can help resolve ambiguous situations.     

A simulation approach for handling uncertainty in the analytic hierarchy process

Uncertainty considerations are introduced into the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The rank order of decision alternatives depends on two types of related uncertainties: (1) uncertainty regarding the future characteristics of the decision making environment described by a set of scenarios, and (2) uncertainty associated with the decision making judgment regarding each pairwise comparison. A simulation approach for handling both types of related uncertainties in the AHP is described. The example introduced by Saaty and Kearns (1985) is extended here to include uncertainty considerations.     

基于遗传算法的座位优化控制模型

座位优化控制是航空运输界增加利润的有效方法 .基于旅客的需求预测 ,可以利用数学规划模型为不同的航段和票价组合计算座位销售上限或者销售竞价 ,从而达到单个航班收入最大化的目的 .常用的方法可分为确定模型和概率模型 ,但对多航段多舱位的优化问题 ,由于出现了复杂的组合和约束 ,这些模型必须简化 .提出了基于遗传算法的座位优化控制模型 ,并和常用的优化方法进行了仿真对比 .研究结果表明 ,遗传算法应用于座位优化 ,可得到满意的解 ,同时 ,遗传算法简化了复杂的约束关系 ,易于实现 ,具有明显的优势 .     

Multiple objective linear programming models with interval coefficients – an illustrated overview

In most real-world situations, the coefficients of decision support models are not exactly known. In this context, it is convenient to consider an extension of traditional mathematical programming models incorporating their intrinsic uncertainty, without assuming the exactness of the model coefficients. Interval programming is one of the tools to tackle uncertainty in mathematical programming models. Moreover, most real-world problems inherently impose the need to consider multiple, conflicting and incommensurate objective functions. This paper provides an illustrated overview of the state of the art of Interval Programming in the context of multiple objective linear programming models.     

Optimal selection of process mean for a stochastic inventory model

It is very common to assume deterministic demand in the literature of integrated targeting – inventory models. However, if variability in demand is high, there may be significant disruptions from using the deterministic solution in probabilistic environment. Thus, the model would not be applicable to real world situations and adjustment must be made. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for integrated targeting – inventory problem when the demand is a random variable. In particular, the proposed model jointly determines the optimal process mean, lot size and reorder point in (Q, R) continuous review model. In order to investigate the effect of uncertainty in demand, the proposed model is compared with three baseline cases. The first of which considers a hierarchical model where the producer determines the process mean and lot-sizing decisions separately. This hierarchical model is used to show the effect of integrating the process targeting with production/inventory decisions. Another baseline case is the deterministic demand case which is used to show the effect of variation in demand on the optimal solution. The last baseline case is for the situation where the variation in the filling amount is negligible. This case demonstrates the sensitivity of the total cost with respect to the variation in the process output. Also, a procedure is developed to determine the optimal solution for the proposed models. Empirical results show that ignoring randomness in the demand pattern leads to underestimating the expected total cost. Moreover, the results indicate that performance of a process can be improved significantly by reducing its variation.     

Decision making under uncertainty comprising complete ignorance and probability

This paper investigates a model of decision making under uncertainty comprising opposite epistemic states of complete ignorance and probability. In the first part, a new utility theory under complete ignorance is developed that combines Hurwicz–Arrow's theory of decision under ignorance with Anscombe–Aumann's idea of reversibility and monotonicity used to characterize subjective probability. The main result is a representation theorem for preference under ignorance by a particular one-parameter function – the τ-anchor utility function. In the second part, we study decision making under uncertainty comprising an ignorant variable and a probabilistic variable. We show that even if the variables are independent, they are not reversible in Anscombe–Aumann's sense. This insight leads to the development of a new proposal for decision under uncertainty represented by a preference relation that satisfies the weak order and monotonicity assumptions but rejects the reversibility assumption. A distinctive feature of the new proposal is that the certainty equivalent of a mapping from the state space of uncertain variables to the prize space depends on the order in which the variables are revealed. Explicit modeling of the order of variables explains some of the puzzles in multiple-prior model and the models for decision making with Dempster–Shafer belief function.     

Uncertainty index based interval assignment by Interval AHP

In a multi-attribute decision making problem, indigenous values are assigned to attributes based on a decision maker’s subjective judgments. The given judgments are often uncertain, because of the uncertainty of situations and intuitiveness of human judgments. In order to reflect the uncertainty in the assigned values, they are denoted as intervals whose widths represent the possibilities of attributes. Since it is difficult for a decision maker to assign values directly to attributes in case of more than two attributes, he/she gives a pairwise comparison matrix by comparing two attributes at one occasion. The given matrix contains two kinds of uncertainty, one is inconsistency among comparisons and the other is incompleteness of comparisons. This paper proposes the models to obtain intervals of attributes from the given uncertain pairwise comparison matrix. At first, the uncertainty indexes of a set of intervals are defined from the viewpoints of entropy in probability, sum or maximum of widths, or ignorance. Then, considering that too uncertain information is not useful, the intervals of attributes are obtained by minimizing their uncertainty indexes.     

Mathematical programming for network revenue management revisited

Mathematical programming models for airline seat inventory control provide booking limits and bid-prices for all itineraries and fare classes. E.L. Williamson [Airline network seat inventory control: methodologies and revenue impacts, Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 1992] finds that simple deterministic approximation methods based on average demand often outperform more advanced probabilistic heuristics. We argue that this phenomenon is due to a booking process that includes nesting of the fare classes, which is ignored in the modeling phase. The differences in the performance between these approximations are studied using a stochastic programming model that includes the deterministic model as a special case. Our study carefully examines the trade-off between computation time and the aggregation level of demand uncertainty with examples of a multi-leg flight and a single-hub network.     

Dominance stochastic models in data envelopment analysis

In this paper stochastic models in data envelopment analysis (DEA) are developed by taking into account the possibility of random variations in input-output data, and dominance structures on the DEA envelopment side are used to incorporate the modelbuilder's preferences and to discriminate efficiencies among decision making units (DMUs). The efficiency measure for a DMU is defined via joint dominantly probabilistic comparisons of inputs and outputs with other DMUs and can be characterized by solving a chance constrained programming problem. Deterministic equivalents are obtained for multivariate symmetric random errors and for a single random factor in the production relationships. The goal programming technique is utilized in deriving linear deterministic equivalents and their dual forms. The relationship between the general stochastic DEA models and the conventional DEA models is also discussed.