Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to support uncertain decision making. The review includes models using probabilities or probability-like quantities; explicit risk measures such as quantiles and variances; fuzzy numbers, and scenarios. The practical assessment of uncertain outcomes and preferences associated with these outcomes is also discussed.     

Sequential Semidefinite Program for Maximum Robustness Design of Structures under Load Uncertainty

A robust structural optimization scheme as well as an optimization algorithm are presented based on the robustness function. Under the uncertainties of the external forces based on the info-gap model, the maximization of the robustness function is formulated as an optimization problem with infinitely many constraints. By using the quadratic embedding technique of uncertainty and the S-procedure, we reformulate the problem into a nonlinear semidefinite programming problem. A sequential semidefinite programming method is proposed which has a global convergent property. It is shown through numerical examples that optimum designs of various linear elastic structures can be found without difficulty.The authors are grateful to the Associate Editor and two anonymous referees for handling the paper efficiently as well as for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Robust detection of exotic infectious diseases in animal herds: A comparative study of three decision methodologies under severe uncertainty

When animals are transported and pass through customs, some of them may have dangerous infectious diseases. Typically, due to the cost of testing, not all animals are tested: a reasonable selection must be made. How to test effectively whilst avoiding costly disease outbreaks? First, we extend a model proposed in the literature for the detection of invasive species to suit our purpose, and we discuss the main sources of model uncertainty, many of which are hard to quantify. Secondly, we explore and compare three decision methodologies on the problem at hand, namely, Bayesian statistics, info-gap theory and imprecise probability theory, all of which are designed to handle severe uncertainty. We show that, under rather general conditions, every info-gap solution is maximal with respect to a suitably chosen imprecise probability model, and that therefore, perhaps surprisingly, the set of maximal options can be inferred at least partly—and sometimes entirely—from an info-gap analysis.     

Using possibilistic logic for modeling qualitative decision: Answer Set Programming algorithms

A qualitative approach to decision making under uncertainty has been proposed in the setting of possibility theory, which is based on the assumption that levels of certainty and levels of priority (for expressing preferences) are commensurate. In this setting, pessimistic and optimistic decision criteria have been formally justified. This approach has been transposed into possibilistic logic in which the available knowledge is described by formulas which are more or less certainly true and the goals are described in a separate prioritized base. This paper adapts the possibilistic logic handling of qualitative decision making under uncertainty in the Answer Set Programming (ASP) setting. We show how weighted beliefs and prioritized preferences belonging to two separate knowledge bases can be handled in ASP by modeling qualitative decision making in terms of abductive logic programming where (uncertain) knowledge about the world and prioritized preferences are encoded as possibilistic definite logic programs and possibilistic literals respectively. We provide ASP-based and possibilistic ASP-based algorithms for calculating optimal decisions and utility values according to the possibilistic decision criteria. We describe a prototype implementing the algorithms proposed on top of different ASP solvers and we discuss the complexity of the different implementations.     

On the Evaluation of Uncertain Courses of Action

We consider the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The fuzzy measure is introduced as a general way of representing available information about the uncertainty. It is noted that generally in uncertain environments the problem of comparing alternative courses of action is difficult because of the multiplicity of possible outcomes for any action. One approach is to convert this multiplicity of possible of outcomes associated with an alternative into a single value using a valuation function. We describe various ways of providing a valuation function when the uncertainty is represented using a fuzzy measure. We then specialize these valuation functions to the cases of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty.     

A simulation approach for handling uncertainty in the analytic hierarchy process

Uncertainty considerations are introduced into the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The rank order of decision alternatives depends on two types of related uncertainties: (1) uncertainty regarding the future characteristics of the decision making environment described by a set of scenarios, and (2) uncertainty associated with the decision making judgment regarding each pairwise comparison. A simulation approach for handling both types of related uncertainties in the AHP is described. The example introduced by Saaty and Kearns (1985) is extended here to include uncertainty considerations.     

A fuzzy-robust stochastic multiobjective programming approach for petroleum waste management planning

This paper proposes a fuzzy-robust stochastic multiobjective programming (FRSMOP) approach, which integrates fuzzy-robust linear programming and stochastic linear programming into a general multiobjective programming framework. A chosen number of noninferior solutions can be generated for reflecting the decision-makers’ preferences and subjectivity. The FRSMOP method can effectively deal with the uncertainties in the parameters expressed as fuzzy membership functions and probability distribution. The robustness of the optimization processes and solutions can be significantly enhanced through dimensional enlargement of the fuzzy constraints. The developed FRSMOP was then applied to a case study of planning petroleum waste-flow-allocation options and managing the related activities in an integrated petroleum waste management system under uncertainty. Two objectives are considered: minimization of system cost and minimization of waste flows directly to landfill. Lower waste flows directly to landfill would lead to higher system costs due to high transportation and operational costs for recycling and incinerating facilities, while higher waste flows directly to landfill corresponding to lower system costs could not meet waste diversion objective environmentally. The results indicate that uncertainties and complexities can be effectively reflected, and useful information can be generated for providing decision support.     

Robust adaptive synchronization of uncertain complex networks with multiple time‐varying coupled delays

In this article, the synchronization problem of uncertain complex networks with multiple coupled time‐varying delays is studied. The synchronization criterion is deduced for complex dynamical networks with multiple different time‐varying coupling delays and uncertainties, based on Lyapunov stability theory and robust adaptive principle. By designing suitable robust adaptive synchronization controllers that have strong robustness against the uncertainties in coupling matrices, the all nodes states of complex networks globally asymptotically synchronize to a desired synchronization state. The numerical simulations are given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of theoretical results. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 20: 62–73, 2015     

Belief linear programming

This paper proposes solution approaches to the belief linear programming (BLP). The BLP problem is an uncertain linear program where uncertainty is expressed by belief functions. The theory of belief function provides an uncertainty measure that takes into account the ignorance about the occurrence of single states of nature. This is the case of many decision situations as in medical diagnosis, mechanical design optimization and investigation problems. We extend stochastic programming approaches, namely the chance constrained approach and the recourse approach to obtain a certainty equivalent program. A generic solution strategy for the resulting certainty equivalent is presented.     

OUTPUT VERSUS INPUT CONTROLS UNDER UNCERTAINTY: THE CASE OF A FISHERY

Abstract The paper compares the management outcomes with a total allowable catch (TAC) and a total allowable effort (TAE) in a fishery under uncertainty. Using a dynamic programming model with multiple uncertainties and estimated growth, harvest, and effort functions from one of the world's largest fisheries, the relative economic and biological benefits of a TAC and TAE are compared and contrasted in a stochastic environment. This approach provides a decision and modeling framework to compare instruments and achieve desired management goals. A key finding is that neither instrument is always preferred in a world of uncertainty and that regulator's risk aversion and weighting in terms of expected net profits and biomass, and the trade‐offs in terms of expected values and variance determine instrument choice.     

The evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under interval uncertainty

The evidential reasoning (ER) approach is a method for multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) under uncertainties. It improves the insightfulness and rationality of a decision making process by using a belief decision matrix (BDM) for problem modelling and the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence for attribute aggregation. The D–S theory provides scope and flexibility to deal with interval uncertainties or local ignorance in decision analysis, which is not explored in the original ER approach and will be investigated in this paper. Firstly, interval uncertainty will be defined and modelled in the ER framework. Then, an extended ER algorithm, IER, is derived, which enables the ER approach to deal with interval uncertainty in assessing alternatives on an attribute. It is proved that the original ER algorithm is a special case of the IER algorithm. The latter is demonstrated using numerical examples.     

Info-gap forecasting and the advantage of sub-optimal models

We consider forecasting in systems whose underlying laws are uncertain, while contextual information suggests that future system properties will differ from the past. We consider linear discrete-time systems, and use a non-probabilistic info-gap model to represent uncertainty in the future transition matrix. The forecaster desires the average forecast of a specific state variable to be within a specified interval around the correct value. Traditionally, forecasting uses a model with optimal fidelity to historical data. However, since structural changes are anticipated, this is a poor strategy. Our first theorem asserts the existence, and indicates the construction, of forecasting models with sub-optimal-fidelity to historical data which are more robust to model error than the historically optimal model. Our second theorem identifies conditions in which the probability of forecast success increases with increasing robustness to model error. The proposed methodology identifies reliable forecasting models for systems whose trajectories evolve with Knightian uncertainty for structural change over time. We consider various examples, including forecasting European Central Bank interest rates following 9/11.     

基于COWA算子的不同类型残缺判断矩阵集结方法

本文研究了决策信息以残缺不确定判断矩阵形式给出的群体决策问题。将残缺不确定区间互反判断矩阵转化为残缺不确定区间互补判断矩阵。基于COWA算子,定义了期望值函数,把残缺不确定区间互反判断矩阵转化成残缺实判断矩阵进行排序,减少了决策信息的丢失。利用IOWA算子来集结群体判断矩阵。最后通过算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Uncertainty quantification of multi-dimensional parameters for composite laminates based on grey mathematical theory

In order to perform uncertainty quantification of elastic mechanical properties for composite laminates with multi-dimensional parameters, this paper is to develop a novel quantification approach based on grey mathematical theory. Here, uncertain parameters are modeled as correlated interval variables by virtue of some limited experimental points. The developed method not only can eliminate big errors in experimental points, but also can estimate uncertain information including nominal values, uncertain intervals, auto and mutual uncertainties of elastic properties. Besides, it can give out feasible domains of mechanical properties when considering mutual uncertainties for uncertainty propagation analysis. The numerical examples are implemented to demonstrate the feasibility and availability of the developed method. The results show that the developed method can become an important and powerful tool for uncertainty quantification of composite laminates with mutual uncertainties.     

Chaos control of uncertain time‐delay chaotic systems with input dead‐zone nonlinearity

This article presents an adaptive sliding mode control (SMC) scheme for the stabilization problem of uncertain time‐delay chaotic systems with input dead‐zone nonlinearity. The algorithm is based on SMC, adaptive control, and linear matrix inequality technique. Using Lyapunov stability theorem, the proposed control scheme guarantees the stability of overall closed‐loop uncertain time‐delay chaotic system with input dead‐zone nonlinearity. It is shown that the state trajectories converge to zero asymptotically in the presence of input dead‐zone nonlinearity, time‐delays, nonlinear real‐valued functions, parameter uncertainties, and external disturbances simultaneously. The selection of sliding surface and the design of control law are two important issues, which have been addressed. Moreover, the knowledge of upper bound of uncertainties is not required. The reaching phase and chattering phenomenon are eliminated. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed scheme. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 13–20, 2016     

ROBUST MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING FOR NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING UNDER PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY

Abstract Inaccurate specification of model coefficients can lead to false or distorted findings in modeling investigations of natural resource management. Hence, this paper outlines a decision framework for optimization problems in which only the bounded set of outcomes for uncertain parameters is known. These models can be solved with standard mathematical programming software and are no larger than their deterministic equivalent. The robust approach is contrasted against deterministic analysis and is demonstrated for two applications regarding the management of natural resources. Deterministic plans are infeasible in at least 40% of cases when parameters vary from their point estimates. Inclusion of robust constraints immunizes against this infeasibility, thereby removing errors arising from false certainty. Additionally, incorporation of bounded parameters in the objective function yields interval‐valued sets containing potential outcomes. However, this increase in the general relevance of model output introduces some degree of suboptimality as deterministic plans are buffered to proactively account for potential variability. The cost of robustness increases with the simulated spread of uncertain coefficients but may be reduced through accounting for the uncertainty aversion of decision makers.     

The arbitrage pricing theorem with incomplete preferences

This paper proves existence of equilibrium and the arbitrage pricing theorem for an asset exchange economy, where individuals' preferences may be incomplete or intransitive. This extends existing results to more general preferences. We also prove the arbitrage pricing theorem for a theory of choice under uncertainty by Bewley [Bewley, T. F. (2002), Knightian decision theory: part I, Decisions in Economics and Finance 25, 79–110.]. These preferences model Knightian uncertainty by preferences which may be incomplete but satisfy independence.     

Introducing parametric uncertainty into a nonlinear friction model

We introduce parametric uncertainty into a nonlinear model for static and kinetic friction of solids. The uncertain parameters are modeled by possibility distributions and an analytical approach is used to propagate the uncertainties through the computations. As a result, we obtain a symbolic expression for the whole spectrum of possible calculation results. (© 2014 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Decision-Making with Sugeno Integrals

This paper clarifies the connection between multiple criteria decision-making and decision under uncertainty in a qualitative setting relying on a finite value scale. While their mathematical formulations are very similar, the underlying assumptions differ and the latter problem turns out to be a special case of the former. Sugeno integrals are very general aggregation operations that can represent preference relations between uncertain acts or between multifactorial alternatives where attributes share the same totally ordered domain. This paper proposes a generalized form of the Sugeno integral that can cope with attributes having distinct domains via the use of qualitative utility functions. It is shown that in the case of decision under uncertainty, this model corresponds to state-dependent preferences on consequences of acts. Axiomatizations of the corresponding preference functionals are proposed in the cases where uncertainty is represented by possibility measures, by necessity measures, and by general order-preserving set-functions, respectively. This is achieved by weakening previously proposed axiom systems for Sugeno integrals.     

Towards a constructive approach to act-conditional subjective expected utility models

In structuring a decision problem under uncertainty, the uncertain environment may be affected by the choice of an act. In decision analysis, the decision maker provides subjective probabilities and utilities through separate elicitation processes, and then both components are combined together to give an index of his preference over decision alternatives. Based upon this conceptualisation of decision analysis, a constructive approach to act-conditional subjective expected utility theory is proposed. Two utility models have been addressed: the linear utility model and the weighted utility model.