Parameter Estimation of Multivariate Regression Model with Fuzzy Random Errors

In many real-world problems, observations are usually described by approximate values due to fuzzy uncertainty, unlikeprobabilistic uncertainty that has nothing to do with experimentation. The combination of statistical model and fuzzy set theory is helpful to improve the identification and analysis of complex systems. As an extension ofstatistical techniques, this study is an investigation of the relationship between fuzzy multiple explanatory variables and fuzzy response with numeric coefficients and the fuzzy random error term. In this work we describe a parameter estimation procedure carrying out the least-squares method in a complete metric space of fuzzy numbers to determine the coefficients based on the extension principle. We demonstrate how the fuzzy least squares estimators present large sample statistical properties, including asymptotic normality, strong consistency and confidence region. The estimators are also examined via asymptotic relative efficiency concerning traditional least squares estimators. Different from the construction of error term in Kim et al.\cite{21}, it is more reasonable in the proposed model since the problems of inconsistency in referring to fuzzy variable and producing the negative spreads may be avoided. The experimental study verifies that the proposed fuzzy least squares estimators achieve the meaning consistent with the theory identification for large sample data set and better generalization regarding one single variable model.     

A multi-objective evolutionary optimization approach for an integrated location-inventory distribution network problem under vendor-managed inventory systems

This paper develops a λ mean-hybrid entropy model to deal with portfolio selection problem with both random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty. Solving this model provides the investor a tradeoff frontier between security return and risk. We model the security return as a triangular fuzzy random variable, where the investor’s individual preference is reflected by the pessimistic-optimistic parameter λ. We measure the security risk using the hybrid entropy in this model. Algorithm is developed to solve this bi-objective portfolio selection model. Beside, a numerical example is also presented to illustrate this approach.     

Solving project scheduling problem with the philosophy of fuzzy random programming

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources to achieve the trade-off between the project cost and the completion time. In real projects, the trade-off between the project cost and the completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are both considerable aspects for managers. Due to the complex external environment, this paper considers project scheduling problem with coexisted uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness, in which the philosophy of fuzzy random programming is introduced. Based on different ranking criteria of fuzzy random variables, three types of fuzzy random models are built. Besides, a searching approach by integrating fuzzy random simulations and genetic algorithm is designed for searching the optimal schedules. The goal of the paper is to provide a new method for solving project scheduling problem in hybrid uncertain environments.     

The evidential reasoning approach for MADA under both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties

Many multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems are characterised by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainties. Incompleteness (or ignorance) and vagueness (or fuzziness) are among the most common uncertainties in decision analysis. The evidential reasoning (ER) approach has been developed in the 1990s and in the recent years to support the solution of MADA problems with ignorance, a kind of probabilistic uncertainty. In this paper, the ER approach is further developed to deal with MADA problems with both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties.In this newly developed ER approach, precise data, ignorance and fuzziness are all modelled under the unified framework of a distributed fuzzy belief structure, leading to a fuzzy belief decision matrix. A utility-based grade match method is proposed to transform both numerical data and qualitative (fuzzy) assessment information of various formats into the fuzzy belief structure. A new fuzzy ER algorithm is developed to aggregate multiple attributes using the information contained in the fuzzy belief matrix, resulting in an aggregated fuzzy distributed assessment for each alternative. Different from the existing ER algorithm that is of a recursive nature, the new fuzzy ER algorithm provides an analytical means for combining all attributes without iteration, thus providing scope and flexibility for sensitivity analysis and optimisation. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the detailed implementation process of the new ER approach and its validity and wide applicability.     

An interactive fuzzy satisficing method for multiobjective stochastic linear programming problems through an expectation model

For decision making problems involving uncertainty, both stochastic programming as an optimization method based on the theory of probability and fuzzy programming representing the ambiguity by fuzzy concept have been developing in various ways. In this paper, we focus on multiobjective linear programming problems with random variable coefficients in objective functions and/or constraints. For such problems, as a fusion of these two approaches, after incorporating fuzzy goals of the decision maker for the objective functions, we propose an interactive fuzzy satisficing method for the expectation model to derive a satisficing solution for the decision maker. An illustrative numerical example is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method.     

Using fuzzy random variables in life annuities pricing

This paper develops life annuity pricing with stochastic representation of mortality and fuzzy quantification of interest rates. We show that modelling the present value of annuities with fuzzy random variables allows quantifying their expected price and risk resulting from the uncertainty sources considered. So, we firstly describe fuzzy random variables and define some associated measures: the mathematical expectation, the variance, distribution function and quantiles. Secondly, we show several ways to estimate the discount rates to price annuities. Subsequently, the present value of life annuities is modelled with fuzzy random variables. We finally show how an actuary can quantify the price and the risk of a portfolio of annuities when their present value is given by means of fuzzy random variables.     

FMMSIC: a hybrid fuzzy based decision support system for MMS (in order to estimate interrelationships between criteria)

One of the main tasks in exploitation of ore-body is to select a suitable mining method. In mining method selection (MMS) problems, a decision procedure has to choose the best exploitation method that satisfies the evaluation criteria. It is generally hard to find a mining method that meets all the criteria simultaneously, therefore a good compromise solution is preferred as the final selection. Furthermore, the MMS problem is an inherently uncertain activity. To deal with the uncertainty, this paper presents an hybrid decision support system based on the fuzzy multi attribute decision making, named the fuzzy mining method selection with interrelation criteria (FMMSIC). FMMSIC models the relative weights of criteria by combining the fuzzy analytic network process and fuzzy entropy, and discusses using these hybrid techniques to determine the overall weights. Subsequently, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method was modified by various normalization norms according to the MMS problem condition. Finally, to illustrate how the FMMSIC is used for the MMS problems, an empirical study of a real case is conducted. It shows by means of an application that the FMMSIC is well suited as a decision support system for the MMS.     

随机模糊需求报童问题

考虑到需求的随机模糊性,建立了随机模糊需求报童的利润模型。利用可信性测度理论给出了其期望利润模型,并揭示了期望利润函数的凹性,证明了最优订货量的存在性和唯一性。结合随机模糊模拟技术和随机扰动近似算法设计了求解最优订货量的混合算法。最后,通过数值算例说明了算法的有效性。     

Novel reliability-based optimization method for thermal structure with hybrid random,interval and fuzzy parameters

In this paper, novel reliability-based optimization model and method are proposed for thermal structure design with random, interval and fuzzy uncertainties in material properties, external loads and boundary conditions. Random variables are used to quantify the probabilistic uncertainty with sufficient sample data; whereas, interval variables and fuzzy variables are adopted to model the non-probabilistic uncertainty associated with objective limited information and subjective expert opinions, respectively. Using the interval ranking strategy, the level-cut limit state function is precisely quantified to represent the safety state. The eventual safety possibility is derived based on multiple integral, where the cut levels of different fuzzy variables are considered to be independent. Then a hybrid reliability-based optimization model is established with considerable computational cost caused by three-layer nested loop. To improve the computational efficiency, a subinterval vertex method is presented to replace the inner-loop and middle-loop. Comparing numerical results with traditional reliability model, a mono-objective example and a multi-objective example are provided to demonstrate the feasibility of proposed method for hybrid reliability analysis and optimization in practical engineering.     

Hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression analysis in claims reserving with geometric separation method

Claims reserving is obviously necessary for representing future obligations of an insurance company and selection of an accurate method is a major component of the overall claims reserving process. However, the wide range of unquantifiable factors which increase the uncertainty should be considered when using any method to estimate the amount of outstanding claims based on past data. Unlike traditional methods in claims analysis, fuzzy set approaches can tolerate imprecision and uncertainty without loss of performance and effectiveness. In this paper, hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression, which is proposed by Chang (2001), is used to predict future claim costs by utilizing the concept of a geometric separation method. We use probabilistic confidence limits for designing triangular fuzzy numbers. Thus, it allows us to reflect variability measures contained in a data set in the prediction of future claim costs. We also propose weighted functions of fuzzy numbers as a defuzzification procedure in order to transform estimated fuzzy claim costs into a crisp real equivalent.     

Dynamic function optimisation with hybridised extremal dynamics

Dynamic function optimisation is an important research area because many real-world problems are inherently dynamic in nature. Over the years, a wide variety of algorithms have been proposed to solve dynamic optimisation problems, and many of these algorithms have used the Moving Peaks (MP) benchmark to test their own capabilities against other approaches. This paper presents a detailed account of our hybridised Extremal Optimisation (EO) approach that has achieved hitherto unsurpassed results on the three standardised scenarios of the MP problem. Several different components are used in the hybrid EO, and it has been shown that a large proportion of the quality of its outstanding performance is due to the local search component. In this paper, the behaviour of the local search algorithms used is analysed, and the roles of other components are discussed. In the concluding remarks, the generalisation ability of this method and its wider applicability are highlighted.     

结构的失效可能度及模糊概率计算方法

依据模糊可能性理论,系统地建立含模糊变量时结构的可靠性计算模型。旨在解决模糊结构、模糊-随机结构和模糊状态假设下结构的可靠性计算问题。所建模型可给出模糊结构失效的可能度和模糊-随机结构失效概率的可能性分布。研究表明:对同时含模糊变量和随机变量的混合可靠性计算问题,把失效概率(或可靠度)作为模糊变量,能更客观地反映系统的安全状况。算例分析说明了文中方法的合理性和有效性。     

Logistics network design for product recovery in fuzzy environment

The design of product recovery network is one of the important and challenging problems in the field of reverse logistics. Some models have been formatted by researchers under deterministic environment. However, uncertainty is inherent during the process of the practical product recovery. In order to deal with uncertainty, this paper employs a fuzzy programming tool to design the product recovery network. Based on different criteria, three types of optimization models are proposed and some properties of them are investigated. To solve the proposed models, we design a hybrid intelligent algorithm which integrates fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm. Finally, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed models and algorithm.     

A new class of random completely generalized strongly nonlinear quasi-complementarity problems for random fuzzy mappings

In this paper, we introduce and study a new class of random completely generalized strongly nonlinear quasi - complementarity problems with non-compact valued random fuzzy mappings and construct some new iterative algorithms for this kind of random fuzzy quasi-complementarity problems. We also prove the existence of random solutions for this class of random fuzzy quasicomplementarity problems and the convergence of random iterative sequences generated by the algorithms.     

金融区间序列分析及其预测的初步评价

金融市场中的实际观测数据,除随机性外往往还带有模糊性,这样的观测数据通常以观测区间的形式给出,例如,当我们谈及某日的上证指数时,其观测值总是在最低点与最高点之间波动。观测值的这种不确定性来自于多重隶属现象,而非随机现象,我们称这种不确定性为模糊性。不确定性问题通常含有两种意义上的分类:一类是随机不确定性,人们依靠概率统计方法进行处理;另一类是非随机性的不确定性,即为模糊性问题,通常利用模糊集合理论来进行研究。本文将在模糊数学理论基础上,利用回归分析方法,构建模糊金融时间序列模型,并利用FLP(模糊线性规划)方法来估计模型的未知参数。为了合理评价拟合效果,我们将根据测量模糊集合间的择近原则,给出利用样本平均贴近度来评价模型拟合效果的一个准则。实证研究将讨论金融模糊时间观测序列的建模、参数估计,并对模型的实际拟合效果和预测效果做初步评价。     

An adjustable approach to fuzzy soft set based decision making

Molodtsov’s soft set theory was originally proposed as a general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty. Recently, decision making based on (fuzzy) soft sets has found paramount importance. This paper aims to give deeper insights into decision making based on fuzzy soft sets. We discuss the validity of the Roy-Maji method and show its true limitations. We point out that the choice value designed for the crisp case is no longer fit to solve decision making problems involving fuzzy soft sets. By means of level soft sets, we present an adjustable approach to fuzzy soft set based decision making and give some illustrative examples. Moreover, the weighted fuzzy soft set is introduced and its application to decision making is also investigated.     

Reformulation versus cutting-planes for robust optimization

Robust optimization (RO) is a tractable method to address uncertainty in optimization problems where uncertain parameters are modeled as belonging to uncertainty sets that are commonly polyhedral or ellipsoidal. The two most frequently described methods in the literature for solving RO problems are reformulation to a deterministic optimization problem or an iterative cutting-plane method. There has been limited comparison of the two methods in the literature, and there is no guidance for when one method should be selected over the other. In this paper we perform a comprehensive computational study on a variety of problem instances for both robust linear optimization (RLO) and robust mixed-integer optimization (RMIO) problems using both methods and both polyhedral and ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. We consider multiple variants of the methods and characterize the various implementation decisions that must be made. We measure performance with multiple metrics and use statistical techniques to quantify certainty in the results. We find for polyhedral uncertainty sets that neither method dominates the other, in contrast to previous results in the literature. For ellipsoidal uncertainty sets we find that the reformulation is better for RLO problems, but there is no dominant method for RMIO problems. Given that there is no clearly dominant method, we describe a hybrid method that solves, in parallel, an instance with both the reformulation method and the cutting-plane method. We find that this hybrid approach can reduce runtimes to 50–75 % of the runtime for any one method and suggest ways that this result can be achieved and further improved on.     

Project scheduling problem with mixed uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness

Project scheduling problem is to determine the schedule of allocating resources so as to balance the total cost and the completion time. This paper considers project scheduling problem with mixed uncertainty of randomness and fuzziness, where activity duration times are assumed to be random fuzzy variables. Three types of random fuzzy models as expected cost minimization model, (α, β)-cost minimization model and chance maximization model are built to meet different management requirements. Random fuzzy simulations for some uncertain functions are given and embedded into genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm. Finally, some numerical experiments are given for the sake of illustration of the effectiveness of the algorithm.     

Solving Large-Scale Fuzzy and Possibilistic Optimization Problems

Fuzzy and possibilistic optimization methods are demonstrated to be effective tools in solving large-scale problems. In particular, an optimization problem in radiation therapy with various orders of complexity from 1000 to 62,250 constraints for fuzzy and possibilistic linear and nonlinear programming implementations possessing (1) fuzzy or soft inequalities, (2) fuzzy right-hand side values, and (3) possibilistic right-hand side is used to demonstrate that fuzzy and possibilistic optimization methods are tractable and useful. We focus on the uncertainty in the right side of constraints which arises, in the context of the radiation therapy problem, from the fact that minimal and maximal radiation tolerances are ranges of values, with preferences within the range whose values are based on research results, empirical findings, and expert knowledge, rather than fixed real numbers. The results indicate that fuzzy/possibilistic optimization is a natural and effective way to model various types of optimization under uncertainty problems and that large fuzzy and possibilistic optimization problems can be solved efficiently.     

落影空间——模糊集合的概率描述

模糊集合论与概率论都是在描述客观现实中的不确定现象。二者之间既有联系又有区别,它们的相互关系一直被人们探讨着。近年来,国外有些学者从二者的同一性方面着眼,作了一些工作。I.R.Goodman指出:对于任一模糊子集,都可以构造一个随机集合以该模糊子集为其落影(“落影”一词是笔者后取的);H.T.Nguyen从信任函数的角度出发,也论证了随机集合与模糊集合的关系;K.Hirota、H.Kwakernaak、E.P.Klement等人从另外一些角度试图建立模糊集合论与概率论之间的联系。