基于COPULA的A、B股信息流动和相关结构分析

金融市场的价格变化体现了市场的信息流动.文章引入copula模型来分析A、B股市场的信息传递.在选择候选copula模型后,利用非参数和极大似然方法得到刻画两个市场信息流动的copula函数的参数,并综合利用AIC检验、KS检验及卡方检验等拟合优度方法判断得到:利用Frank函数来刻画两个市场的相关模式最为合适.这样较灵活的捕捉到了两个市场的信息流动和相关结构.     

基于Copula的金融市场相关分析

本文采用连接函数(copula)方法研究上证和深证市场的相关性。对上证指数和深证成指收益率的边缘分布分别用正则逆Gamma分布(Normal inverse gamma mixture)、偏T分布(Skew Student-t,SST)进行拟合,然后在此基础上采用copula函数方法建立两者的联合分布。其中的copula函数分别用Gumbel-Hougaard copula、Frank copula和Clayton copula,相依参数应用推断函数法(method of inference functions,IFM方法)估计。结果表明沪深两证券市场具有相关性。     

时间序列中向量自回归模型的拟合优度检验

本文提出并研究了一些诊断检验工具,用于一般参数型的时间序列向量自回归模型的拟合优度检验．该检验在零假设下渐近服从卡方分布,并能侦察到以参数速度收敛到零假设模型的备择模型．检验涉及到权函数,因此可以灵活地选择权函数以提高检验功效,尤其是在可能的偏离方向已知情形．如果备择不是方向型的,而只知道其属于某一个模型类中,此时可构造一个渐近分布自由的极大极小（maximin）检验．对于饱和备择,基于得分型思想给出了构造万能（omnibus）检验的可行性构想．本文对提出的检验从理论上进行了功效研究．另外,为提高检验在小样本情形的功效,本文把非参数Monte Carlo检验方法推广到相依数据情形．最后,通过模拟研究和实际数据分析进一步表明检验的有用性．     

时长不等数据的vine-copula建模及多资产组合VaR分析

传统的copula模型在对二维以上相依结构建模时存在参数过少的缺陷,vine copula理论基本弥补了这一缺陷.介绍了vine copula理论以及其相对于传统多元模型的优势,尤其提出了vine copula对于时长不一致的数据进行建模具有数据利用率较高的特性,给出了这类数据vine copula的建模步骤以及基于极大似然估计的统计推断.最后对国内A股市场的五种金融股票的联合分布进行建模,并利用蒙特卡罗方法对资产组合的VaR进行了模拟.     

随机变量的和、积、商分布的一种新表示

应用Feller提出的点-集函数并结合二元copula,对二元连续型正值随机变量的和、积、商的分布进行了研究,得到了和、积、商分布的一种新的计算方法.最后给出一个应用实例.     

梯度下降法在沉积物粒度分布拟合中的应用

结合实测数据,以三个对数正态分布函数的和函数为拟合函数,以梯度下降法为主要方法,对沉积物粒度分布进行了数据拟合,通过数值实验我们发现:利用梯度下降法可以有效地优化分布函数的各参数,实现拟合残差的稳步持续减小,具有良好的可操作性,拟合效果是令人满意的,它为我们进行数据拟合提供了一条新的思路,同时此方法也可以推广到解决其他极值问题.     

极值copula的统计推断及实证研究

为了分析由极端事件所引起的巨额损失变量之间的相依关系,本文引入了比一般copula函数更有效的极值copula和上尾copula。我们介绍copula的对角截面以确定上尾相依系数。基于极大似然法,讨论了关于这些copula函数类的半参数估计方法。通过构建Cramer-Von Mises统计量对copula的拟合优度进行假设检验。在实证分析部分,我们通过具体的实例来说明,在应用研究中该如何选取最优的copula以描述变量之间的相关性。     

Mathematica软件快速上手指南（8）——数据拟合与数据点的图形

数据拟合就是设法用一个函数(表达式)去描述收集到的一组数据．做数据拟合一般是希望找出数据里的某种规律性；或者为了从一组实测数据中得到有关数学模型的参数．拟合得到的结果可以在将来用于预测某些未知情况下的可能性．     

基于广义自回归得分模型的时变D-vine的应用

广义自回归得分模型以条件密度函数得分作为主要驱动,为我们提供了计算一个时变参数的框架。把传统的D藤结构拓展到时变D藤,并将其与广义自回归得分模型相结合来估计时变参数。对美元、欧元、日元、港元和英镑兑人民币的外汇汇率序列拟合边际分布,提取标准化残差序列并建立时变D藤模型,即对pair-copula分解式选择最优的时变copula族,最后通过仿真技术得到标准误差的箱线图。研究表明,该模型有效地刻画了变量间的相依关系,为描述金融资产收益率的波动率过程提供了一种新思路。     

基于拟合优度检验的非参数EWMA控制图

文章提出了一种基于拟合优度检验的非参数控制图,以实现对连续型数据的监控.所提出的方法不仅适用于单值观测的情况,也可用于分组样本.不同于传统的控制图要求数据服从正态分布,文章的方法不限制数据的分布,可用于正态以及非正态的任意分布;并且能够监控数据分布的变化,例如分布中的位置参数、尺度参数、以及形状参数等.仿真结果表明,文章提出的控制图计算迅速、使用方便,在各种分布下都表现稳健,对分布变化的监控非常有效.     

A Semiparametric Two-Sample Hypothesis Testing Problem for Random Graphs

Two-sample hypothesis testing for random graphs arises naturally in neuroscience, social networks, and machine learning. In this article, we consider a semiparametric problem of two-sample hypothesis testing for a class of latent position random graphs. We formulate a notion of consistency in this context and propose a valid test for the hypothesis that two finite-dimensional random dot product graphs on a common vertex set have the same generating latent positions or have generating latent positions that are scaled or diagonal transformations of one another. Our test statistic is a function of a spectral decomposition of the adjacency matrix for each graph and our test procedure is consistent across a broad range of alternatives. We apply our test procedure to real biological data: in a test-retest dataset of neural connectome graphs, we are able to distinguish between scans from different subjects; and in the C. elegans connectome, we are able to distinguish between chemical and electrical networks. The latter example is a concrete demonstration that our test can have power even for small-sample sizes. We conclude by discussing the relationship between our test procedure and generalized likelihood ratio tests. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

A high-dimensional test for the equality of the smallest eigenvalues of a covariance matrix

For the test of sphericity, Ledoit and Wolf [Ann. Statist. 30 (2002) 1081-1102] proposed a statistic which is robust against high dimensionality. In this paper, we consider a natural generalization of their statistic for the test that the smallest eigenvalues of a covariance matrix are equal. Some inequalities are obtained for sums of eigenvalues and sums of squared eigenvalues. These bounds permit us to obtain the asymptotic null distribution of our statistic, as the dimensionality and sample size go to infinity together, by using distributional results obtained by Ledoit and Wolf [Ann. Statist. 30 (2002) 1081-1102]. Some empirical results comparing our test with the likelihood ratio test are also given.     

A comparative study of SQP-type algorithms for nonlinear and nonconvex mixed-integer optimization

We present numerical results of a comparative study of codes for nonlinear and nonconvex mixed-integer optimization. The underlying algorithms are based on sequential quadratic programming (SQP) with stabilization by trust-regions, linear outer approximations, and branch-and-bound techniques. The mixed-integer quadratic programming subproblems are solved by a branch-and-cut algorithm. Second order information is updated by a quasi-Newton update formula (BFGS) applied to the Lagrange function for continuous, but also for integer variables. We do not require that the model functions can be evaluated at fractional values of the integer variables. Thus, partial derivatives with respect to integer variables are replaced by descent directions obtained from function values at neighboring grid points, and the number of simulations or function evaluations, respectively, is our main performance criterion to measure the efficiency of a code. Numerical results are presented for a set of 100 academic mixed-integer test problems. Since not all of our test examples are convex, we reach the best-known solutions in about 90 % of the test runs, but at least feasible solutions in the other cases. The average number of function evaluations of the new mixed-integer SQP code is between 240 and 500 including those needed for one- or two-sided approximations of partial derivatives or descent directions, respectively. In addition, we present numerical results for a set of 55 test problems with some practical background in petroleum engineering.     

利用不一致同胞数据作定量性状的关联检验

为检验定量位点和单个标记位点的等位基因之间的关联性,Schork等[2000]提出了一个odds ratio检验,这个检验是基于抽取不相干“病例”和“对照”个体．但是该检验会因人群混合或分层的影响而失效．受Risch.Zhang[1995]和Schork等[2000]的启发,我们考虑采用非一致同胞数据,并提出一个简单的检验方法．由于该检验是基于家庭的,对人群混合或分层不敏感．该检验很容易推广到多个标记位点的情形,并可以利用所有的含有至少一个“病例”个体和一个“对照”个体的同胞数据．通过数值计算讨论了检验的统计性质,特别研究了高分位点和低分位点(用来定义非一致同胞)的选取对检验功效的影响,讨论的结果对实际应用具有指导作用．进一步的随机模拟表明,利用多个标记位点数据能够明显地提高功效．此外,通过随机模拟比较了文中提出的检验和Allison等[1999]的检验的功效．结果显示,如果适当地选取两个分位点,我们的检验更有效．     

A new test for multivariate normality

We propose a new class of rotation invariant and consistent goodness-of-fit tests for multivariate distributions based on Euclidean distance between sample elements. The proposed test applies to any multivariate distribution with finite second moments. In this article we apply the new method for testing multivariate normality when parameters are estimated. The resulting test is affine invariant and consistent against all fixed alternatives. A comparative Monte Carlo study suggests that our test is a powerful competitor to existing tests, and is very sensitive against heavy tailed alternatives.     

Testing heteroscedasticity by wavelets in a nonparametric regression model

In the nonparametric regression models, a homoscedastic structure is usually assumed. However, the homoscedasticity cannot be guaranteed a priori. Hence, testing the heteroscedasticity is needed. In this paper we propose a consistent nonparametric test for heteroscedasticity, based on wavelets. The empirical wavelet coefficients of the conditional variance in a regression model are defined first. Then they are shown to be asymptotically normal, based on which a test statistic for the heteroscedasticity is constructed by using Fan's wavelet thresholding idea. Simulations show that our test is superior to the traditional nonparametric test.     

Artificial viscosity proper orthogonal decomposition

We introduce improved reduced-order models for turbulent flows. These models are inspired from successful methodologies used in large eddy simulation, such as artificial viscosity, applied to standard models created by proper orthogonal decomposition of flows coupled with Galerkin projection. As a first step in the analysis and testing of our new methodology, we use the Burgers equation with a small diffusion parameter. We present a thorough numerical analysis for the time discretization of the new models. We then test these models in two problems displaying shock-like phenomena. Of course, since the Burgers equation does not model turbulence, we next need to test our new models in realistic turbulent flow settings. This is the subject of a forthcoming report.     

An improved solution methodology for the arsenal exchange model (AEM)

We develop an iterative approach for solving a linear programming problem with prioritized goals. We tailor our approach to preemptive goal programming problems and take advantage of the fact that at optimality, most constraints are not binding. To overcome the problems posed by redundant constraints, our procedure ensures redundant constraints are not present in the problems we solve. We apply our approach to the arsenal exchange model (AEM). AEM allocates weapons to targets using linear programs (LPs) formulated by the model. Our methodology solves a subproblem using a specific subset of the constraints generated by AEM. Violated constraints are added to the original subproblem and redundant constraints are not included in any of the subproblems. Our methodology was used to solve five test cases. In four of the five test cases, our methodology produced an optimal integer solution. In all five test cases, solution quality was maintained or improved.     

Moving estimates test with time varying bandwidth

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for parameter changes in time series models based on a moving estimates (ME) test. It is widely accepted that detecting some changes, for instance, those caused by temporary parameter shifts by the existing cusum test is difficult. A MV test with a fixed bandwidth has been developed to circumvent the defect, but the test still does not perform well under certain conditions. Motivated by this, we propose a MV test with a time varying bandwidth to outperform the original test. In order to illustrate our findings, we have provided simulation results.     

Checking for normality in linear mixed models

Linear mixed models are popularly used to fit continuous longitudinal data,and the random effects are commonly assumed to have normal distribution.However,this assumption needs to be tested so that further analysis can be proceeded well.In this paper,we consider the Baringhaus-Henze-Epps-Pulley (BHEP) tests,which are based on an empirical characteristic function.Differing from their case,we consider the normality checking for the random effects which are unobservable and the test should be based on their predictors.The test is consistent against global alternatives,and is sensitive to the local alternatives converging to the null at a certain rate arbitrarily close to 1/√ n where n is sample size.Furthermore,to overcome the problem that the limiting null distribution of the test is not tractable,we suggest a new method: use a conditional Monte Carlo test (CMCT) to approximate the null distribution,and then to simulate p-values.The test is compared with existing methods,the power is examined,and several examples are applied to illustrate the usefulness of our test in the analysis of longitudinal data.