复杂非线性系统的控制综合与动态分析

随着当代科学和技术的发展,复杂非线性系统和控制理论研究不断深入,应用领域不断扩大,已影响了科技和社会领域的许多方面.针对当今该领域的研究难点和重点,本文集中讨论了复杂非线性系统控制研究中的3个关键问题,包括非光滑系统控制、网络化系统控制、临界态分析与控制.一方面是对在相关研究领域中的部分科研成果做一个简要的总结;另一方面,想借此机会在自动化学会控制理论专业委员会成立50周年之际向专业委员会表示感谢和祝贺.     

县域工旅农产业协同度测度研究——以河北省典型县域为例

在全域旅游的背景下,基于产业协同理论,利用工业、旅游业、农业产业系统有序度、协同度模型,从规模、结构、绩效三方面建立其协同度测度指标体系,依据2003-2014年的数据,定性和定量的分析评价了河北典型县域——涞水县、宽城满族自治县、抚宁县、蔚县的工旅农产业协同度.研究表明,县域工旅农产业协同度低,波动明显,且县域工业与旅游业协同变化趋势对其作用显著;县域旅游业与工业或农业普遍处于不协同状态,且前者协同度高于后者.     

中国煤层气的产业化进程与发展建议

煤层气产业在中国能源建设中具有重要战略地位。中国煤层气勘探开发历经矿井瓦斯抽排利用、现代煤层气理论技术的引进发展与成功应用、商业化开发试验及产业化发展（初期）4个阶段。由于在煤层气地质基础理论、勘探技术方法、开发工艺技术、集输利用与管理制度等方面的发展创新、系统集成,我国已有能力大规模发展煤层气产业,这在我国能源发展战略上是非常难得的历史机遇。当前,为了加快煤层气产业的发展,必须加强统筹规划,发挥多种积极性;加强煤层气地质研究、提高对区域勘探的指导与目标评价水平;开展高效低成本开发工艺技术攻关;发展煤层气产品集输和加工利用;继续跟踪国外煤层气前沿理论技术,加强技术交流与合作研究。     

基于“动态生成”的大学数学课堂教学

"动态生成"教学观的建立旨在摆脱课堂教学中以教师为中心、强调知识传授的传统教学模式的缺陷,从根本上正确理解课堂教学的复杂性和动态性,构建充满生命活力的大学数学课堂教学生态环境.在用动态生成的视角审视当前大学数学课堂教学中存在的问题的基础上,文章对在课堂教学中如何有效地进行动态生成提出了一些具体的策略:更新教学观念,精心预设弹性化的数学课堂教学方案;根据学生课堂反馈情况及时调整预设,并及时捕捉可利用的动态资源,为学生的生成创造可能的机会;加强教学研究,不断提高课堂教学智慧.     

Time-linearized,compact methods for the inviscid GRLW equation subject to initial Gaussian conditions

The objective of this paper is three-fold. First, four time-linearization methods that are second- and fourth-order accurate in time and space, respectively, are presented and used to study the dynamics of the modified and generalized regularized-long wave equations (mRLW and GRLW equations, respectively). Two of the methods use the conservation-law form of the equations and treat the wave amplitude and its second-order spatial derivative and the linear and nonlinear advection fluxes as unknowns, whereas the other two employ the non-conservation-law form of the equations and consider the wave amplitude and its first- and second-order spatial derivatives as unknowns. The methods employ three-point fourth-order accurate Padé discretizations for the first- and second-order derivatives, are second-order accurate in time, and yield linear systems of blocktridiagonal matrices. Second, the accuracy of these methods is assessed by comparing their results with those of the exact solution of the mRLW equation. It is reported that the four methods predict nearly the same values of the three invariants and have the same accuracy, and that an accurate prediction of the invariants may not correspond to small errors in space and time. Third, the dynamics of the inviscid GRLW equation is studied first qualitatively in terms of length and time scales and then numerically as a function of the linear advection speed, the exponent of the nonlinear advection flux, the dispersion coefficient and the amplitude and width of the initial bell-shaped or Gaussian conditions. It is shown that wide initial conditions result in wave steepening and breakup and the formation of solitary waves whose amplitude and speed decrease as the time for their formation increases. For narrow initial conditions, it is shown that only a single solitary wave may form. Behind this wave and depending on the parameters that characterized the inviscid GRLW equation, rarefaction or negative amplitude waves that propagate towards the upstream boundary or a train of localized oscillatory waves that do not emerge from the trailing edge of the leading solitary wave may be formed. These oscillatory waves exhibit the characteristics of, but are not dispersive shock waves and their amplitude and frequency increases as the width of the initial conditions is decreased. The results presented here do not only complement previous work by the authors, they also show that the dynamics of the inviscid GRLW equation undergoes new and interesting phenomena as the width of the initial conditions is decreased.     

Boundary-Value Problems of the Theory of Thin and Nonthin Orthotropic Shells with Account of Nonlinearly Elastic Properties and Low Shear Rigidity of Composite Materials

The basic geometric and physical relations and resolving equations of the theory of thin and nonthin orthotropic composite shells with account of nonlinear properties and low shear rigidity of their materials are presented. They are derived based on two theories, namely the theory of anisotropic shells employing the Timoshenko or Kirchhoff-Love hypothesis and the nonlinear theory of elasticity and plasticity of anisotropic media in combination with the Lagrange variational principle. The procedure and algorithm for the numerical solution of nonlinear (linear) problems are based on the method of successive approximations, the difference-variational method, and the Lagrange multiplier method. Calculations of the stress-strain state for a spherical shell with a circular opening loaded with internal pressure are presented. The effect of transverse shear strains and physical nonlinearity of the material on the distribution of maximum deflections and circumferential stresses in the shell, obtained according to two variants of the shell theories, is studied. A comparison of the results of the problem solution in linear and nonlinear statements with and without account of the shell shear strains is given. The numerical data obtained for thin and nonthin (medium thick) composite shells are analyzed.     

基于关系契约视角的农户与农产品电子商务企业合作机制演化博弈分析

本文基于关系契约的视角,运用演化博弈理论,构建有限理性特性下的农户与农产品电子商务企业合作演化博弈模型,分析双方合作策略的演进过程、稳定策略及其影响因素,并通过Matlab仿真模拟分析影响双方合作策略选择的因素,验证博弈结果正确性。研究结果表明:农户和农产品电子商务企业选择合作策略与合作投入成本、实现的超额收益密切相关,博弈初始状态、再交易成本、单方不合作获得的收益及违约罚金等因素影响系统的演化稳定结果。因此完善农户与农产品电子商务企业的合作机制,需要构建合理的利益分配机制、良好的关系治理机制、有效的监督和惩罚机制和信息共享、沟通与协调机制。     

网约车新政下平台和乘客的Stackelberg博弈模型及策略研究

近年来,滴滴和优步等网约车平台的出现给城市居民出行带来了新的选择,然而随着新政的实施以及垄断巨头的酝酿诞生,网约车平台是否会降补贴提车价成为消费者最为关心的问题。文章构建网约车平台和乘客之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,分析了网约车平台的补贴和抽成策略对乘客是否选择网约车出行的决策行为以及网约车市场均衡的影响。理论研究和仿真结果表明:网约车平台合理的补贴力度和抽成力度可以有效规避行政监管成本增加和乘客资源流失的风险,提高双方的收益,实现社会的帕累托最优。     

The application of information and communication technologies in transport

This paper examines the possibilities that are opened today and for the whole decade from the application of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), in the field of Transport. The various applications are examined, under the following three headings: operation and management of networks (all modes), information and guidance to the users (of the transport systems), operation and management of freight transport systems.For each of these, a concise and critical review is made of the various technologies that exist today in their final stages of development or at the stage of commercial implementation, and their applications. The review refers to various sub-categories of the above main three.The paper proceeds then to examine the prospects for the future with a medium time horizon of 2010. These prospects show that a number of areas of applications have well established technologies and are secured of commercial viability so that we can predict safely their full scale application in the course of this decade. Examples of such areas of applications are: traffic data information collection and dissemination systems, network control and traffic management strategies, vehicle control and driver assistance, systems for (Electronic or other) fee collection.And specifically for freight: freight resource management; terminal and port information and communication systems, freight and vehicle tracking and tracing, and “front” or “back-office” logistics systems.     

A 3D modeling of static and forward smoldering combustion in a packed bed of materials

A three-dimensional (3D) model based on the first principles of mass, momentum and energy was developed that numerically simulates the processes of static and forward smoldering in a porous packed bed of plant materials. The packed bed contains cellulose material or tobacco (cigarette) wrapped in a porous paper and surrounded by an ambient air. Other major characteristics of the model are including the effects of buoyancy forces in the flow field, separate treatment of solid and gas in a thermally non-equilibrium environment, and use of multi-precursor kinetic models for the pyrolysis of staring material and oxidation of char. The changes in porosity due to pyrolysis and char oxidation and the effect of porosity on the bed permeability and gas diffusivity are included. The mass, momentum, energy, and species transport equations are solved in a discretized computational domain using a commercially available computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code. The simulation results show that the model reasonably reproduces the major features of a burning cigarette during smoldering and puffing and are in a good agreement with the existing experimental results for cigarettes. Results include the velocity profiles, gas and solid temperatures, coal shape, burn rates, profile and transport of gas and vapor species throughout the packed bed, dilution through the wrapper paper and ventilation in the filter section, and the mass fraction of some pyrolysis and oxidation products in the mainstream and sidestream flows.     

Place and use of new technology in the teaching of mathematics: ICMI activities in the past 25 years

Looking back at the place of technology in the past ICMEs during the last decades and on the two ICMI studies devoted to technology, it is obvious that the role and use of technology has given rise to a diversity of points of view and attitudes across the world. The ICMEs and the two studies are places where researchers, teacher educators and practitioners meet. To what extent do they reflect the evolution of the trends of research and/or of integration of technology into real practice? The study will develop a general analysis of the theoretical frameworks, issues and wishes related to the use of technology in mathematics teaching from the proceedings of past ICMEs and of the two ICMI studies. Both a quantitative and a qualitative point of view will be adopted. From the great diversity of questions and approaches, the study attempts to formulate the main trends and their evolution over time within the ICMI community, as well as some pertinent issues for the coming years.     

行业结构环境的序参量分析方法研究

行业结构环境分析是发现和掌握行业运行规律与发展状况的必经之路,也是在企业战略管理中的重要组成部分,其结果直接影响着企业战略决策与实施。针对企业战略管理的新价值理念,本文在协同学与竞优理论的基础上,通过对行业内群体结构特性与企业行为的重新考察,建立了行业结构环境分析的一种新方法即序参量分析方法与其应用范例。本文的研究结果,如行业内多层结构、企业群组定位及分布特性、行业基本发展模式、标杆与协同伙伴、企业群组或群组内企业构成与绩效之间的关系等都可为实现符合现代产业发展环境的企业战略管理提供方向性辅助与技术支持。     

废弃食品回流再造问题的产品价格分析

针对废弃食品回流再造的食品安全问题,建立相关利益主体包括食品制造商、废弃食品收购者在各自独立以及作为利益共同体的不同条件下的优化模型,分析新生产食品价格和回流再造食品价格以及相应的利润、影响因素.结果表明:作为同一利益主体,生产制造昂贵食品对食品制造商获利不利,而回流再造成本越低,对食品制造商通过回流再造获利是有利的;若食品制造商和收购者各自独立决定价格,收购者进行回流再造的行为会干扰当前食品零售市场;由于回流再造食品的价格比较优势,在信息不对称时消费者会倾向选择回流再造食品.     

Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency

Complex economic dynamics is studied by a forced oscillator model of business cycles. The technique of numerical modeling is applied to characterize the fundamental properties of complex economic systems which exhibit multiscale and multistability behaviors, as well as coexistence of order and chaos. In particular, we focus on the dynamics and structure of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles within a periodic window of the bifurcation diagram, at the onset of a saddle-node bifurcation and of an attractor merging crisis, and in the chaotic regions associated with type-I intermittency and crisis-induced intermittency, in non-linear economic cycles. Inside a periodic window, chaotic saddles are responsible for the transient motion preceding convergence to a periodic or a chaotic attractor. The links between chaotic saddles, crisis and intermittency in complex economic dynamics are discussed. We show that a chaotic attractor is composed of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits located in the gap regions of chaotic saddles. Non-linear modeling of economic chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency can improve our understanding of the dynamics of financial intermittency observed in stock market and foreign exchange market. Characterization of the complex dynamics of economic systems is a powerful tool for pattern recognition and forecasting of business and financial cycles, as well as for optimization of management strategy and decision technology.     

审计委员会的设立与公司治理——基于审计收费的实证研究

采用非参数检验方法和回归分析方法,本文从审计费用率视角研究了审计委员会的设立对上市公司治理的影响。本文发现,在设立审计委员会的样本和未设立审计委员会的样本之间,董事会的规模和独立性、独立董事规模和报酬存在显著差异,且这些变量及独立董事规模、审计任期与审计费用率的相关性不同。结果表明,审计委员会在加强独立董事责任和董事会、外部审计师独立性的同时,也改善了公司内部控制系统,但整体上并没有改变审计师的任期。     

On the trace approximation problem for truncated Toeplitz operators and matrices

The paper is devoted to the problem of approximation of the traces of products of truncated Toeplitz operators and matrices generated by integrable real symmetric functions defined on the real line (resp. on the unit circle), and estimation of the corresponding errors. These approximations and the corresponding error bounds are of importance in the statistical analysis of continuous- and discrete-time stationary processes (asymptotic distributions and large deviations of Toeplitz type quadratic functionals and forms, parametric and nonparametric estimation, etc.)We review and summarize the known results concerning the trace approximation problem and prove some new results.     

Reliability verification for composite structures of annular cross section

The performance and reliability of tubular composite structures are considered. The suitability of concrete-filled plastic and steel tubes for building structures is discussed. The strength and structural safety of tubular composite members of annular cross section are analyzed, and the criteria of limit states for tubular composite members under concentric and eccentric axial compression are studied. The time-variant functions of efficiency of the members and their components are presented as random processes of variations in their compressive resistance and internal actions. The safety design of the members is based on the conceptions of their conventional resistance, sequences of safety margin, and transformed conditional probabilities.     

基于尖点突变的知识应用过程中溢出效应研究

本文引入“知识浓度”和“知识应用速度”两个概念,利用知识稀释效应的系统动力方程解释知识溢出机理。从突变视角分析了知识溢出的突变特性,借鉴尖点突变理论对系统动力方程进行换元变换,建立了知识溢出状态的尖点突变模型,讨论了知识稀释系统控制因子的变化与知识溢出状态间的判定规则,说明了知识应用过程中知识溢出特性如突跳、滞后效应等特性及知识溢出态和接受态之间转化的尖点突变机理。最后,利用我国31个省级行政区面板数据进行实证研究,揭示以省级行政区为对象的知识溢出状态、变化情况及发展趋势,为我国区域经济发展和知识战略提供理论指导。     

带有能源的随机动态柯布—道格拉斯生产函数

在考虑能源作为投入要素和经济环境随机动态变化的情况下,将经典的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数推广到随机动态的形式.首先给出了随机动态C-D生产函数的随机微分方程形式,证明了该生产函数解的存在性和唯一性;其次,进一步分析了解的Markov性质和扩散性质,并分别利用漂移系数和扩散系数给出了产出弹性的计算公式.最后,还给出了经济增长...     

中国股票市场的分形结构——股票收益长期记忆特征的实证研究

股票市场收益的长期记忆特征对于系统非线性结构的确定以及市场有效性的研究具有重要的意义.针对上海和深圳A股算术加权和流通市值加权市场指数的周收益序列以及上证180指数和深圳成份指数中选取的12只代表性股票的周收益序列,采用重标级差分析(R/S分析)和ARF IM A模型对其进行了实证研究.从统计结果来看,样本序列呈现出尖峰和肥尾等有偏特征,明显不满足正态分布的假设,表明收益序列可能具有长程相关或记忆性.进一步的研究发现,沪深两市A股市场指数收益序列和大多数个股(10只股票)存在明显的长期记忆特征,收益分布表现出持久性.从划分不同时段的分析结果来看,中国股票市场渐进趋于弱势有效.