The effect of market power on risk-sharing

The paper studies an oligopolistic equilibrium model of financial agents who aim to share their random endowments. The risk-sharing securities and their prices are endogenously determined as the outcome of a strategic game played among all the participating agents. In the complete-market setting, each agent’s set of strategic choices consists of the security payoffs and the pricing kernel that are consistent with the optimal-sharing rules; while in the incomplete setting, agents respond via demand functions on a vector of given tradeable securities. It is shown that at the (Nash) risk-sharing equilibrium, the sharing securities are suboptimal, since agents submit for sharing different risk exposures than their true endowments. On the other hand, the Nash equilibrium prices stay unaffected by the game only in the special case of agents with the same risk aversion. In addition, agents with sufficiently lower risk aversion act as predatory traders, since they absorb utility surplus from the high risk averse agents and reduce the efficiency of sharing. The main results of the paper also hold under the generalized models that allow the presence of noise traders and heterogeneity in agents’ beliefs.     

A two-population game in observable double-ended queuing systems

In this study, the existing game theoretical framework is extended to strategic queuing in search of solutions for a two-population game in observable double-ended queuing systems with zero matching times. We show that multiple Nash equilibria and one unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium exist in this game.     

正则对策的N-M稳定集及其唯一存在定理

研究了有非对称性和负传递性偏好的无限策略对策,提出了N-M稳定集和正则对策的概念,其中N-M稳定集是将合作对策中由Von Neumann 和Morgenstern给出的相应概念引入到策略对策中的.所谓正则对策是指其Nash均衡集中每条链关于一致偏好总有上界的无限策略对策.证明了每个正则对策都有唯一N-M稳定集. 此结果及其应用例子说明正则对策N-M稳定集的概念对于策略对策的纯Nash均衡的精炼起着重要作用.     

Optimal strategic reasoning with McNaughton functions

The aim of the paper is to explore strategic reasoning in strategic games of two players with an uncountably infinite space of strategies the payoff of which is given by McNaughton functions—functions on the unit interval which are piecewise linear with integer coefficients. McNaughton functions are of a special interest for approximate reasoning as they correspond to formulas of infinitely valued Lukasiewicz logic. The paper is focused on existence and structure of Nash equilibria and algorithms for their computation. Although the existence of mixed strategy equilibria follows from a general theorem (Glicksberg, 1952) [5], nothing is known about their structure neither the theorem provides any method for computing them. The central problem of the article is to characterize the class of strategic games with McNaughton payoffs which have a finitely supported Nash equilibrium. We give a sufficient condition for finite equilibria and we propose an algorithm for recovering the corresponding equilibrium strategies. Our result easily generalizes to n-player strategic games which don't need to be strictly competitive with a payoff functions represented by piecewise linear functions with real coefficients. Our conjecture is that every game with McNaughton payoff allows for finitely supported equilibrium strategies, however we leave proving/disproving of this conjecture for future investigations.     

A Discrete-Time Dynamic Game of Seasonal Water Allocation

We present a method for the derivation of feedback Nash equi- libria in discrete-time finite-horizon nonstationary dynamic games. A partic- ular motivation for such games stems from environmental economics, where problems of seasonal competition for water levels occur frequently among heterogeneous economic agents. These agents are coupled through a state variable, which is the water level. Actions are strategically chosen to max- imize the agents individual season-dependent utility functions. We observe that, although a feedback Nash equilibrium exists, it does not satisfy the (exogenous) environmental watchdog expectations. We devise an incentive scheme to help meeting those expectations and calculate a feedback Nash equilibrium for the new game that uses the scheme. This solution is more environmentally friendly than the previous one. The water allocation game solutions help us to draw some conclusions regarding the agents behavior and also about the existence of feedback Nash equilibria in dynamic games. The paper draws from Refs.1–2. Its earlier version was presented at the Victoria International Conference 2004, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, February 9–13, 2004. We thank the anonymous referee and Christophe Deissenberg for insightful comments, which have helped us to clarify its message. We also thank our colleagues Sophie Thoyer, Robert Lifran, Odile Pourtalier, and Vladimir Petkov for helpful discussions on the model and techniques used in this Paper. Gratitude is expressed to the Kyoto Institute for Economic Research, Kyoto University, for this author's support in the final stages of the paper preparation     

Robust non-zero-sum stochastic differential reinsurance game

This paper considers the non-zero-sum stochastic differential game problem between two ambiguity-averse insurers (AAIs) who encounter model uncertainty and seek the optimal reinsurance decision under relative performance concerns. Each AAI manages her own risks by purchasing reinsurance with the objective of maximizing the expected utility of her relative terminal surplus with respect to that of her counterparty. The two AAIs’ decisions influence each other through the insurers’ relative performance concerns and the correlation between their surplus processes. We establish a general framework of Nash equilibrium for the associated non-zero-sum game with model uncertainty. For the representative case of exponential utilities, we solve the equilibrium strategies explicitly. Numerical studies are conducted to draw economic interpretations.     

Nash equilibrium in compact-continuous games with a potential

If the preferences of the players in a strategic game satisfy certain continuity conditions, then the acyclicity of individual improvements implies the existence of a (pure strategy) Nash equilibrium. Moreover, starting from any strategy profile, an arbitrary neighborhood of the set of Nash equilibria can be reached after a finite number of individual improvements.     

Finding all pure strategy Nash equilibria in a planar location game

In this paper, we deal with a planar location-price game where firms first select their locations and then set delivered prices in order to maximize their profits. If firms set the equilibrium prices in the second stage, the game is reduced to a location game for which pure strategy Nash equilibria are studied assuming that the marginal delivered cost is proportional to the distance between the customer and the facility from which it is served. We present characterizations of local and global Nash equilibria. Then an algorithm is shown in order to find all possible Nash equilibrium pairs of locations. The minimization of the social cost leads to a Nash equilibrium. An example shows that there may exist multiple Nash equilibria which are not minimizers of the social cost.     

Limiting distributions of the number of pure strategy Nash equilibria in n-person games

We study the number of pure strategy Nash equilibria in a “random” n-person non-cooperative game in which all players have a countable number of strategies. We consider both the cases where all players have strictly and weakly ordinal preferences over their outcomes. For both cases, we show that the distribution of the number of pure strategy Nash equilibria approaches the Poisson distribution with mean 1 as the numbers of strategies of two or more players go to infinity. We also find, for each case, the distribution of the number of pure strategy Nash equilibria when the number of strategies of one player goes to infinity, while those of the other players remain finite.     

无限阶段网络博弈中合作解的策略稳定性

合作博弈的经典合作解不满足时间一致性, 并缺乏策略稳定性. 本文研究无限阶段网络博弈合作解的策略稳定性理论. 首先建立时间一致的分配补偿程序实现合作解的动态分配, 然后建立针对联盟的惩罚策略, 给出合作解能够被强Nash均衡策略支撑的充分性条件, 最后证明了博弈中的惩罚策略局势是强Nash均衡, 从而保证了合作解的策略稳定性. 作为应用, 考察了重复囚徒困境网络博弈中Shapley值的策略稳定性.     

Computing Nash equilibria through computational intelligence methods

Nash equilibrium constitutes a central solution concept in game theory. The task of detecting the Nash equilibria of a finite strategic game remains a challenging problem up-to-date. This paper investigates the effectiveness of three computational intelligence techniques, namely, covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategies, particle swarm optimization, as well as, differential evolution, to compute Nash equilibria of finite strategic games, as global minima of a real-valued, nonnegative function. An issue of particular interest is to detect more than one Nash equilibria of a game. The performance of the considered computational intelligence methods on this problem is investigated using multistart and deflection.     

Optimization reformulations of the generalized Nash equilibrium problem using Nikaido-Isoda-type functions

We consider the generalized Nash equilibrium problem which, in contrast to the standard Nash equilibrium problem, allows joint constraints of all players involved in the game. Using a regularized Nikaido-Isoda-function, we then present three optimization problems related to the generalized Nash equilibrium problem. The first optimization problem is a complete reformulation of the generalized Nash game in the sense that the global minima are precisely the solutions of the game. However, this reformulation is nonsmooth. We then modify this approach and obtain a smooth constrained optimization problem whose global minima correspond to so-called normalized Nash equilibria. The third approach uses the difference of two regularized Nikaido-Isoda-functions in order to get a smooth unconstrained optimization problem whose global minima are, once again, precisely the normalized Nash equilibria. Conditions for stationary points to be global minima of the two smooth optimization problems are also given. Some numerical results illustrate the behaviour of our approaches.     

Optimal investment–reinsurance strategies with state dependent risk aversion and VaR constraints in correlated markets

In this paper, we investigate the optimal time-consistent investment–reinsurance strategies for an insurer with state dependent risk aversion and Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraints. The insurer can purchase proportional reinsurance to reduce its insurance risks and invest its wealth in a financial market consisting of one risk-free asset and one risky asset, whose price process follows a geometric Brownian motion. The surplus process of the insurer is approximated by a Brownian motion with drift. The two Brownian motions in the insurer’s surplus process and the risky asset’s price process are correlated, which describe the correlation or dependence between the insurance market and the financial market. We introduce the VaR control levels for the insurer to control its loss in investment–reinsurance strategies, which also represent the requirement of regulators on the insurer’s investment behavior. Under the mean–variance criterion, we formulate the optimal investment–reinsurance problem within a game theoretic framework. By using the technique of stochastic control theory and solving the corresponding extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) system of equations, we derive the closed-form expressions of the optimal investment–reinsurance strategies. In addition, we illustrate the optimal investment–reinsurance strategies by numerical examples and discuss the impact of the risk aversion, the correlation between the insurance market and the financial market, and the VaR control levels on the optimal strategies.     

A differential oligopoly game with differentiated goods and sticky prices

We investigate a dynamic oligopoly game where goods are differentiated and prices are sticky. We study the open-loop and the closed-loop memoryless Nash equilibrium, and show that the latter equilibrium entails a larger level of steady state production as compared to the former; both equilibria entail a larger level of production in steady state than the static game. We also study the effects of price stickiness and product differentiation upon the steady state equilibrium allocation and profits. The per-firm equilibrium output is increasing in both product differentiation and price stickiness, while profits are increasing in both product differentiation and the speed of price adjustment. The steady state social welfare monotonically increases in the speed of price adjustment, and the overproduction entailed by dynamic competition has beneficial effect from a social standpoint.     

A Strong Anti-Folk Theorem

We study the properties of finitely complex, symmetric, globally stable, and semi-perfect equilibria. We show that: (1) If a strategy satisfies these properties then players play a Nash equilibrium of the stage game in every period; (2) The set of finitely complex, symmetric, globally stable, semi-perfect equilibrium payoffs in the repeated game equals the set of Nash equilibria payoffs in the stage game; and (3) A strategy vector satisfies these properties in a Pareto optimal way if and only if players play some Pareto optimal Nash equilibrium of the stage game in every stage. Our second main result is a strong anti-Folk Theorem, since, in contrast to what is described by the Folk Theorem, the set of equilibrium payoffs does not expand when the game is repeated.This paper is a revised version of Chapter 3 of my Ph.D. thesis, which has circulated under the title “An Interpretation of Nash Equilibrium Based on the Notion of Social Institutions”.     

On optimal reinsurance treaties in cooperative game under heterogeneous beliefs

In this paper, we study the optimal reinsurance policies as the result of a two-person cooperative game. We assume that both the insurer and the reinsurer are risk averse and expected-utility maximizers. In addition, we assume that they “agree to disagree” on the distribution of the underlying losses in the contract negotiation.In our analysis, we consider two scenarios. In the first one, the reinsurance premium is fully negotiable, whereas in the second one, the premium is determined by the reinsurer using the expected value premium principle. For both scenarios, we first derive the set of Pareto-optimal reinsurance contracts and then identify the reinsurance contract corresponding to the Nash bargaining solution as well as that corresponding to the Kalai–Smorodinsky bargaining solution.     

Household risk aversion and portfolio choices

In practice, stock investment is one of the most important decisions made by households. The primary goal of this paper is to explain family investment decisions under the assumptions of household member’s preferences and efficient risk sharing based on the collective household model. In particular, by examining the absolute (relative) risk aversion of the household welfare function, we demonstrate how household’s portfolio allocation in stocks changes with family wealth. We examine two types of preference heterogeneity between family members: parameter heterogeneity and functional form heterogeneity. This study offers an alternative explanation of household portfolio choice corresponding with the observation that wealthier households tend to hold greater share of their wealth in risky assets. Specifically, if two decision-makers have standard constant relative risk aversion preference with different relative risk aversions in a household, family’s relative risk aversion decreases as household wealth increases (decreasing relative risk aversion).     

A non-zero-zum War of Attrition

The division of a cake by two players is modelled by means of a game of timing in which the players have a probability of learning when their opponent acts. It is shown that the game has a unique Nash equilibrium when both players are non-noisy but that there are many Nash equilibria including pure ones when at least one of the players is noisy. Explicit expressions for the strategies used in these Nash equilibria are obtained.This work was carried out while Dr. Garnaev was visiting the University of Southampton on a Postdoctoral Fellowship of The Royal Society of London.     

COMPETITION AND COOPERATION IN A DYNAMICAL MODEL OF NATURAL RESOURCES

Abstract In this paper, we propose a model describing the commercial exploitation of a common renewable resource by a population of strategically interacting agents. Players can cooperate or compete; cooperators maximize the payoff of their group while defectors maximize their own profit. The partition of the players into two groups, defectors and cooperators, results from the players' choices, so it is not predetermined. This partition is decided as a Nash equilibrium of a static game. It is shown that different types of players can exist in an equilibrium; more precisely, depending on the parameter values such as resource stock, cost, and so on, there might be equilibria only with defectors, cooperators, or with a combination of cooperators and defectors. In any case the total harvest depends on the renewable resource stock, so it influences agents' positions. It is assumed that at each time period the agents harvest according to Nash equilibrium, which can be combined with a dynamic model describing the evolution of fish population. A complete analysis of the equilibria is presented and their stability is analysed. The effect of the different Nash equilibria on the stability of the fish stock, showing that full cooperation is the most stable case, is examined.     

Robust non-zero-sum investment and reinsurance game with default risk

This paper investigates a non-zero-sum stochastic differential game between two competitive CARA insurers, who are concerned about the potential model ambiguity and aim to seek the robust optimal reinsurance and investment strategies. The ambiguity-averse insurers are allowed to purchase reinsurance treaty to mitigate individual claim risks; and can invest in a financial market consisting of one risk-free asset, one risky asset and one defaultable corporate bond. The objective of each insurer is to maximize the expected exponential utility of his terminal surplus relative to that of his competitor under the worst-case scenario of the alternative measures. Applying the techniques of stochastic dynamic programming, we derive the robust Nash equilibrium reinsurance and investment policies explicitly and present the corresponding verification theorem. Finally, we perform some numerical examples to illustrate the influence of model parameters on the equilibrium reinsurance and investment strategies and draw some economic interpretations from these results.