高维部分线性模型的变量选择和估计

考虑高维部分线性模型,提出了同时进行变量选择和估计兴趣参数的变量选择方法.将Dantzig变量选择应用到线性部分及非参数部分的各阶导数,从而获得参数和非参数部分的估计,且参数部分的估计具有稀疏性,证明了估计的非渐近理论界.最后,模拟研究了有限样本的性质.     

因变量缺失下变系数部分线性测量误差模型的变量选择

主要研究因变量存在缺失且协变量部分包含测量误差情形下,如何对变系数部分线性模型同时进行参数估计和变量选择.我们利用插补方法来处理缺失数据,并结合修正的profile最小二乘估计和SCAD惩罚对参数进行估计和变量选择.并且证明所得的估计具有渐近正态性和Oracle性质.通过数值模拟进一步研究所得估计的有限样本性质.     

部分线性测量误差模型的模拟—推断估计

该文研究了部分线性测量误差模型,即无法直接观测非参数部分协变量,只能得到其替代变量的模型.利用局部线性估计并结合模拟-推断的方法(SIMEX)得到参数及非参数的估计,并在适当的条件下,得到了所提估计量的渐近偏差及方差.将该文提出的模拟-推断方法与Liang(2000)的估计方法比较,表明模拟-推断法在处理测量误差问题上的有效性.值得一提的是,模拟-推断方法不需要对非参数部分协变量的分布提出假设.     

删失数据下的半参数变系数部分线性回归模型

为了分析删失数据,该文考虑变系数部分线性模型,此模型允许协变量对响应变量存在非线性影响.响应变量与协变量之间关系的统计模型通过线性结构来拟合是非常重要而且有益.对于删失数据,常用的统计方法不能直接应用于此模型.该文首先提出一类数据变换用以建立无偏条件期望.然后利用profile最小二乘方法,给出了模型中参数分量和非参数分量的profile最小二乘估计,并建立了这些估计的渐近正态性.最后通过数值例子来说明该文所提出的方法的有效性.     

基于sieve方法的响应变量为当前状态数据的部 分函数型线性模型的估计

利用sieve方法研究响应变量为当前状态数据的部分函数型线性模型的估计.在一定的条件下,证明了该估计的强相合性和渐近正态性,得到了该估计的收敛速度,并且非参数部分达到最优收敛速度.最后通过一个数值模拟来研究该估计的有限样本性质.     

线性测量误差模型的平均估计

频率模型平均估计近年来受到了较大的关注,但对有测量误差的观测数据尚未见到任何研究.文章主要考虑了线性测量误差模型的平均估计问题,导出了模型平均估计的渐近分布,基于Hjort和Claeskens(2003)的思想构造了一个覆盖真实参数的概率趋于预定水平的置信区间,并证明了该置信区间与基于全模型正态逼近所构造的置信区间的渐近等价性.模拟结果表明当协变量存在测量误差时,模型平均估计能明显增加点估计的效率.     

基于众数回归的变系数部分线性工具变量模型的稳健估计

基于众数回归,利用工具变量研究含有内生变量的变系数部分线性模型的稳健估计.首先,引入工具变量对内生协变量进行分解,从而得到内生协变量的一致估计;其次,运用B样条基函数近似模型中的非参数部分,将模型简化;进一步,基于众数回归的思想,结合EM算法得到参数和非参数函数的估计.在一定条件下,证明估计量的大样本性质;最后,利用模拟实验和真实实例验证所提方法的有效性.     

EV自回归模型的一个相合估计

考虑带有测量误差的自回归模型,在不对替代变量和真实变量之间的关系做任何模型假设的情况下,借助核实数据,给出未知参数的一个基于核实与替代两方面信息的最小二乘估计量,并证得该估计量是相合估计.     

基于网点观测的变量不全含误差的部分线性函数关系模型

对一类基于网点观测的部分线性变量含误差模型进行了研究,解释变量为(xτ,μτ,t)τ,其中x带有观测误差,而μ,t不含误差为真实值,文中用最小二乘原理给出了未知参数的估计,并利用一阶样条方法给出了未知函数的估计.在较弱的条件下证明了估计量的强相合性,给出了a.s.收敛速度.     

协变量缺失下部分线性模型的模型选择和模型平均

本文研究了协变量随机缺失下部分线性模型的模型选择和模型平均问题.首先利用逆概率加权方法得出了线性回归系数和非参数函数的估计,并在局部误设定框架下证明了线性回归系数估计量的渐近正态性.然后构造了兴趣参数的兴趣信息准则和频数模型平均估计量,并根据该模型平均估计量构造了一个覆盖真实参数的概率趋于预定水平的置信区间.模拟研究和实例分析分别说明了本方法的优越性和实用性.     

Optimal Pair Matching With Two Control Groups

In an effort to detect hidden biases due to failure to control for an unobserved covariate, some observational or nonrandomized studies include two control groups selected to systematically vary the unobserved covariate. Comparisons of the treated group and two control groups must, of course, control for imbalances in observed covariates. Using the three groups, we form pairs optimally matched for observed covariates—that is, we optimally construct from observational data an incomplete block design. The incomplete block design may use all available data, or it may use data selectively to produce a balanced incomplete block design, or it may be the basis for constructing a matched sample when expensive outcome information is to be collected only for sampled individuals. The problem of optimal pair matching with two control groups is shown by a series of transformations to be equivalent to a particular form of optimal nonbipartite matching, a problem for which polynomial time algorithms exist. In our examples, we implement the procedure using a nonbipartite matching algorithm due to Derigs. We illustrate the method with data from an observational study of the employment effects of the minimum wage.     

Robust estimation for partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates

We are concerned with robust estimation procedures to estimate the parameters in partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates. To enhance the interpretability, we suggest implementing a nonconcave regularization method in the robust estimation procedure to select important covariates from the linear component. We establish the consistency for both the linear and the nonlinear components when the covariate dimension diverges at the rate of o(n1/2), where n is the sample size. We show that the robust estimate of linear component performs asymptotically as well as its oracle counterpart which assumes the baseline function and the unimportant covariates were known a priori. With a consistent estimator of the linear component, we estimate the nonparametric component by a robust local linear regression. It is proved that the robust estimate of nonlinear component performs asymptotically as well as if the linear component were known in advance.Comprehensive simulation studies are carried out and an application is presented to examine the fnite-sample performance of the proposed procedures.     

One-armed bandit process with a covariate

We generalize the bandit process with a covariate introduced by Woodroofe in several significant directions: a linear regression model characterizing the unknown arm, an unknown variance for regression residuals and general discounting sequence for a non-stationary model. With the Bayesian regression approach, we assume a normal-gamma conjugate prior distribution of the unknown parameters. It is shown that the optimal strategy is determined by a sequence of index values which are monotonic and determined by the observed value of the covariate and updated posterior distributions. We further show that the myopic strategy is not optimal in general. Such structural properties help to understand the tradeoff between information gathering and immediate expected payoff and may provide certain insight for covariate adjusted response adaptive design of clinical trials.     

协变量区间删失时线性模型的参数估计

本文研究了当协变量为区间数据时的线性模型，通过构造区间数据变量的条件均值，得到了回归参数的估计，当协变量的分布已知时，证明了估计的无偏性与强相合性．时协变量的分布未知的情形也作了讨论．文中还作了若干模拟计算，从模拟的结果不难发现，利用本文提出的方法所获得的估计简便且具有较高的精度．     

Corrected-loss estimation for Error-in-Variable partially linear model

We consider an Error-in-Variable partially linear model where the covariates of linear part are measured with error which follows a normal distribution with a known covariance matrix. We propose a corrected-loss estimation of the covariate effect. The proposed estimator is asymptotically normal. Simulation studies are presented to show that the proposed method performs well with finite samples, and the proposed method is applied to a real data set.     

Identifiability of intermediate variables on causal paths

We discuss the discovery of causal mechanisms and identifiability of intermediate variables on a causal path. Different from variable selection, we try to distinguish intermediate variables on the causal path from other variables. It is also different from ordinary model selection approaches which do not concern the causal relationships and do not contain unobserved variables. We propose an approach for selecting a causal mechanism depicted by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) with an unobserved variable. We consider several causal networks, and discuss their identifiability by observed data. We show that causal mechanisms of linear structural equation models are not identifiable. Furthermore, we present that causal mechanisms of nonlinear models are identifiable, and we demonstrate the identifiability of causal mechanisms of quadratic equation models. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for the identifiability.     

A consistent local linear estimator of the covariate adjusted correlation coefficient

Consider the correlation between two random variables (X, Y), both not directly observed. One only observes X? = φ(1)(U)X + φ(2)(U) and ? = ψ(1)(U)Y + ψ(2)(U), where all four functions {φ(l)(·),ψ(l)(·), l = 1, 2} are unknown/unspecified smooth functions of an observable covariate U. We consider consistent estimation of the correlation between the unobserved variables X and Y, adjusted for the above general dual additive and multiplicative effects of U, based on the observed data (X?, ?, U).     

Generalized Partially Linear Measurement Error Models

This article considers generalized partially linear models when the linear covariate is measured with additive error. We propose estimators of parameter and nonparametric function by using local linear regression, the SIMEX technique, and generalized estimating equation. The asymptotic normality of the estimators of the parameter, and bias and variance of the estimators of the nonparametric component are derived under appropriate assumptions. In addition, the generalization to clustered measurements is discussed. The approaches are used to the analysis of data from the Framingham Heart Study. A simulation experiment is conducted for an illustration.     

Best arm identification in generalized linear bandits

We consider the best-arm identification problem in generalized linear bandits: each arm has a vector of covariates, there is an unknown vector of parameters that is common across the arms, and a generalized linear model captures the dependence of rewards on the covariate and parameter vectors. The goal is to identify a near-optimal arm with high probability while minimizing the number of arm pulls (i.e., the sampling budget). We propose the first algorithm for this problem and provide theoretical guarantees on its accuracy and sampling efficiency.     

Semiparametric Bayesian Regression via Potts Model

We consider Bayesian nonparametric regression through random partition models. Our approach involves the construction of a covariate-dependent prior distribution on partitions of individuals. Our goal is to use covariate information to improve predictive inference. To do so, we propose a prior on partitions based on the Potts clustering model associated with the observed covariates. This drives by covariate proximity both the formation of clusters, and the prior predictive distribution. The resulting prior model is flexible enough to support many different types of likelihood models. We focus the discussion on nonparametric regression. Implementation details are discussed for the specific case of multivariate multiple linear regression. The proposed model performs well in terms of model fitting and prediction when compared to other alternative nonparametric regression approaches. We illustrate the methodology with an application to the health status of nations at the turn of the 21st century. Supplementary materials are available online.