A class of weighted multivariate normal distributions and its properties

This article proposes a class of weighted multivariate normal distributions whose probability density function has the form of a product of a multivariate normal density and a weighting function. The class is obtained from marginal distributions of various doubly truncated multivariate normal distributions. The class strictly includes the multivariate normal and multivariate skew-normal. It is useful for selection modeling and inequality constrained normal mean vector analysis. We report on a study of some distributional properties and the Bayesian perspective of the class. A probabilistic representation of the distributions is also given. The representation is shown to be straightforward to specify the distribution and to implement computation, with output readily adapted for the required analysis. Necessary theories and illustrative examples are provided.     

Generation of strongly non-Gaussian stochastic processes by iterative scheme upgrading phase and amplitude contents

Random excitations, such as wind velocity, always exhibit non-Gaussian features. Sample realisations of stochastic processes satisfying given features should be generated, in order to perform the dynamical analysis of structures under stochastic loads based on the Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, an efficient method is proposed to generate stationary non-Gaussian stochastic processes. It involves an iterative scheme that produces a class of sample processes satisfying the following conditions. (1) The marginal cumulative distribution function of each sample process is perfectly identical to the prescribed one. (2) The ensemble-averaged power spectral density function of these non-Gaussian sample processes is as close to the prescribed target as possible. In this iterative scheme, the underlying processes are generated by means of the spectral representation method that recombines the upgraded power spectral density function with the phase contents of the new non-Gaussian processes in the latest iteration. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed approach for four typical non-Gaussian distributions, some of which deviate significantly from the Gaussian distribution. It is found that the estimated power spectral density functions of non-Gaussian processes are close to the target ones, even for the extremely non-Gaussian case. Furthermore, the capability of the proposed method is compared to two other methods. The results show that the proposed method performs well with convergence speed, accuracy, and random errors of power spectral density functions.     

Effect of random system properties on bending response of thermo-mechanically loaded laminated composite plates

In this paper, effect of random variation in system properties on bending response of geometrically linear laminated composite plates subjected to transverse uniform lateral pressure and thermal loading is examined. System parameters such as the lamina material properties, expansion of thermal coefficients, lamina plate thickness and lateral load are modeled as basic random variables. The basic formulation is based on higher order shear deformation theory to model the system behavior of the composite plate. A C⁰ finite element method in conjunction with the first order perturbation technique procedure developed earlier by authors for the plate subjected to lateral loading is employed to obtain the second order response statistics (mean and variance) of the transverse deflection of the plate. Typical numerical results for the second order statistics of the transverse central deflection of geometrically linear composite plates with temperature independent and dependent material properties subjected to uniform temperature and combination of uniform and linearly varying temperature distribution are obtained for various combinations of geometric parameters, uniform lateral pressures, staking sequences and boundary conditions. The performance of the stochastic laminated composite model is demonstrated through comparison of mean transverse central deflection with those results available in literature and standard deviation of the deflection with an independent Monte Carlo simulation.     

Using the sum-of-uniforms method to generate correlated random variates with certain marginal distribution

This paper extends the sum-of-uniforms method to generate correlated random variables with certain marginal distributions. We first use the transformation method to derive the joint probability density function of the correlated uniform random variables. We also demonstrate that the sum-of-uniforms method can be extended to generate correlated random variables with certain marginal distributions including uniform, exponential, Erlang, Bernoulli, binomial, geometric, and negative binomial. Finally, this paper presents the exact correlation coefficients of such correlated random variables.     

整批间隔进货的存储量控制模型与随机局部弹性

利用作者于文[1，2]引入的随机弹性理论，研究了整批间隔进货并不允许缺货的随机存储模型中，一个采购周期内的总费用对最高存储量的弹性．给出了总费用弹性概率密度函数的一般表达式．进一步给出了存在多种需求物资的随机存储模型中总费用对单个物资采购量的弹性分布函数和概率密度函数，讨论了随着采购量的随机变化，总费用的弹性变化规律和变化范围．通过实例研究了当最高库存量的分布特性已知且采购量服从某一分布时，总费用的弹性变化范围及在该变化范围的可信度．     

Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations: Simulated Maximum Likelihood versus Extended Kalman Filter and Itô-Taylor Expansion

This article compares several estimation methods for nonlinear stochastic differential equations with discrete time measurements. The likelihood function is computed by Monte Carlo simulations of the transition probability (simulated maximum likelihood SML) using kernel density estimators and functional integrals and by using the extended Kalman filter (EKF and second-order nonlinear filter SNF). The relation with a local linearization method is discussed. A simulation study for a diffusion process in a double well potential (Ginzburg–Landau equation) shows that, for large sampling intervals, the SML methods lead to better estimation results than the likelihood approach via EKF and SNF. A second study using a nonlinear diffusion coefficient (generalized Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model) demonstrates that the EKF type estimators may serve as efficient alternatives to simple maximum quasilikelihood approaches and Monte Carlo methods.     

Model checking for additive hazards model with multivariate survival data

Multivariate failure time data often arise in biomedical studies due to natural or artificial clustering. With appropriate adjustment for the underlying correlation, the marginal additive hazards model characterizes the hazard difference via a linear link function between the hazard and covariates. We propose a class of graphical and numerical methods to assess the overall fitting adequacy of the marginal additive hazards model. The test statistics are based on the supremum of the stochastic processes derived from the cumulative sum of the martingale-based residuals over time and/or covariates. The distribution of the stochastic process can be approximated through a simulation technique. The proposed tests examine how unusual the observed stochastic process is, compared to a large number of realizations from the approximated process. This class of tests is very general and suitable for various purposes of model fitting evaluation. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance, and the model-checking methods are illustrated with data from an otitis media study.     

Estimating a Distribution Function for Censored Time Series Data

Consider a long term study, where a series of dependent and possibly censored failure times is observed. Suppose that the failure times have a common marginal distribution function, but they exhibit a mode of time series structure such as α-mixing. The inference on the marginal distribution function is of interest to us. The main results of this article show that, under some regularity conditions, the Kaplan–Meier estimator enjoys uniform consistency with rates, and a stochastic process generated by the Kaplan–Meier estimator converges weakly to a certain Gaussian process with a specified covariance structure. Finally, an estimator of the limiting variance of the Kaplan–Meier estimator is proposed and its consistency is established.     

Stochastic analysis of transit systems

This paper presents two mathematical models representing on surface transit systems with general failure, towing and repair time distributions. The stochastic analysis is performed with the aid of the regeneration point technique. Laplace transforms of the state probabilities are obtained. A number of general formulas are developed for the transit system steady-state availability when one of the system transition rates is described by the Erlangian probability density function. Various plots of transit system steady-state availability are shown.     

Stochastic Integration Based on Simple, Symmetric Random Walks

A new approach to stochastic integration is described, which is based on an a.s. pathwise approximation of the integrator by simple, symmetric random walks. Hopefully, this method is didactically more advantageous, more transparent, and technically less demanding than other existing ones. In a large part of the theory one has a.s. uniform convergence on compacts. In particular, the method gives a.s. convergence for the stochastic integral of a finite variation function of the integrator, which is not càdlàg in general. Research of T. Szabados was supported by a Hungarian National Research Foundation (OTKA) grant No. T42496. Research of B. Székely was supported by the HSN laboratory of BUTE.     

Creeping flow analysis of slightly non-Newtonian fluid in a uniformly porous slit

This paper provides the analysis of the steady, creeping flow of a special class of slightly viscoelastic, incompressible fluid through a slit having porous walls with uniform porosity. The governing two dimensional flow equations along with non-homogeneous boundary conditions are non-dimensionalized. Recursive approach is used to solve the resulting equations. Expressions for stream function, velocity components, volumetric flow rate, pressure distribution, shear and normal stresses in general and on the walls of the slit, fractional absorption and leakage flux are derived. Points of maximum velocity components are also identified. A graphical study is carried out to show the effect of porosity and non-Newtonian parameter on above mentioned resulting expressions. It is observed that axial velocity of the fluid decreases with the increase in porosity and non-Newtonian parameter. The outcome of this theoretical study has significant importance both in industry and biosciences.     

Valuation of cash flows under random rates of interest: A linear algebraic approach

This paper reformulates the classical problem of cash flow valuation under stochastic discount factors into a system of linear equations with random perturbations. Using convergence results, a sequence of uniform approximations is developed. The new formulation leads to a general framework for deriving approximate statistics of cash flows for a broad class of models of stochastic interest rate process. We show applications of the proposed method by pricing default-free and defaultable cash flows. The methodology developed in this paper is applicable to a variety of uncertain cash flow analysis problems.     

A stochastic conjugate gradient method for the approximation of functions

A stochastic conjugate gradient method for the approximation of a function is proposed. The proposed method avoids computing and storing the covariance matrix in the normal equations for the least squares solution. In addition, the method performs the conjugate gradient steps by using an inner product that is based on stochastic sampling. Theoretical analysis shows that the method is convergent in probability. The method has applications in such fields as predistortion for the linearization of power amplifiers.     

Coupling stochastic EM and approximate Bayesian computation for parameter inference in state-space models

We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation–maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the novelty of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) within SAEM. The task is to provide each iteration of SAEM with a filtered state of the system, and this is achieved using an ABC sampler for the hidden state, based on sequential Monte Carlo methodology. It is shown that the resulting SAEM-ABC algorithm can be calibrated to return accurate inference, and in some situations it can outperform a version of SAEM incorporating the bootstrap filter. Two simulation studies are presented, first a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model then a state-space model having dynamics expressed by a stochastic differential equation. Comparisons with iterated filtering for maximum likelihood inference, and Gibbs sampling and particle marginal methods for Bayesian inference are presented.     

复合载荷下圆薄板的大挠度问题

本文引入载荷分布函数使复合载荷依单参数变化,并选取平均挠角作为单一的位移摄动参数,给出了在均布载荷和中心集中力联合作用下边缘固定夹紧的圆薄板大挠度问题的摄动解,并讨论了中心点挠度为零的特殊情况.     

Nonnormal deterministic equivalents and a transformation in stochastic mathematical programming

This paper considers random variables of the continuous type in a stochastic programming problem and presents (1) a general approach to the development of deterministic equivalents of constraints to be satisfied within certain probability limits, and (2) a deterministic transformation of a stochastic programming problem with random variables in the objective function. Deterministic equivalents are developed for constraints containing uniform random variables, but the approach used can be applied to other types of continuous random variables, as well. When the random variables appear in the objective function, a deterministic transformation of the stochastic programming problem is obtained to yield a closed-form solution without resort to a Monte Carlo computer simulation. Extension of this approach to stochastic problems with discrete random variables and integer decision variables is discussed briefly. A numerical example is presented.     

A multivariate skew normal distribution

In this paper, we define a new class of multivariate skew-normal distributions. Its properties are studied. In particular we derive its density, moment generating function, the first two moments and marginal and conditional distributions. We illustrate the contours of a bivariate density as well as conditional expectations. We also give an extension to construct a general multivariate skew normal distribution.     

Continuous Contour Monte Carlo for Marginal Density Estimation With an Application to a Spatial Statistical Model

The problem of marginal density estimation for a multivariate density function f(x) can be generally stated as a problem of density function estimation for a random vector λ(x) of dimension lower than that of x. In this article, we propose a technique, the so-called continuous Contour Monte Carlo (CCMC) algorithm, for solving this problem. CCMC can be viewed as a continuous version of the contour Monte Carlo (CMC) algorithm recently proposed in the literature. CCMC abandons the use of sample space partitioning and incorporates the techniques of kernel density estimation into its simulations. CCMC is more general than other marginal density estimation algorithms. First, it works for any density functions, even for those having a rugged or unbalanced energy landscape. Second, it works for any transformation λ(x) regardless of the availability of the analytical form of the inverse transformation. In this article, CCMC is applied to estimate the unknown normalizing constant function for a spatial autologistic model, and the estimate is then used in a Bayesian analysis for the spatial autologistic model in place of the true normalizing constant function. Numerical results on the U.S. cancer mortality data indicate that the Bayesian method can produce much more accurate estimates than the MPLE and MCMLE methods for the parameters of the spatial autologistic model.     

A class of bivariate exponential distributions

We introduce a class of absolutely continuous bivariate exponential distributions, generated from quadratic forms of standard multivariate normal variates.This class is quite flexible and tractable, since it is regulated by two parameters only, derived from the matrices of the quadratic forms: the correlation and the correlation of the squares of marginal components. A simple representation of the whole class is given in terms of 4-dimensional matrices. Integral forms allow evaluating the distribution function and the density function in most of the cases.The class is introduced as a subclass of bivariate distributions with chi-square marginals; bounds for the dimension of the generating normal variable are underlined in the general case.Finally, we sketch the extension to the multivariate case.     

ALLEE EFFECTS: POPULATION GROWTH,CRITICAL DENSITY,AND THE CHANCE OF EXTINCTION

This paper develops mathematical models to describe the growth, critical density, and extinction probability in sparse populations experiencing Allee effects. An Allee effect (or depensation) is a situation at low population densities where the per-individual growth rate is an increasing function of population density. A potentially important mechanism causing Allee effects is a shortage of mating encounters in sparse populations. Stochastic models are proposed for predicting the probability of encounter or the frequency of encounter as a function of population density. A negative exponential function is derived as such an encounter function under very general biological assumptions, including random, regular, or aggregated spatial patterns. A rectangular hyperbola function, heretofore used in ecology as the functional response of predator feeding rate to prey density, arises from the negative exponential function when encounter probabilities are assumed heterogeneous among individuals. These encounter functions produce Allee effects when incorporated into population growth models as birth rates. Three types of population models with encounter-limited birth rates are compared: (1) deterministic differential equations, (2) stochastic discrete birth-death processes, and (3) stochastic continuous diffusion processes. The phenomenon of a critical density, a major consequence of Allee effects, manifests itself differently in the different types of models. The critical density is a lower unstable equilibrium in the deterministic differential equation models. For the stochastic discrete birth-death processes considered here, the critical density is an inflection point in the probability of extinction plotted as a function of initial population density. In the continuous diffusion processes, the critical density becomes a local minimum (antimode) in the stationary probability distribution for population density. For both types of stochastic models, a critical density appears as an inflection point in the probability of attaining a small population density (extinction) before attaining a large one. Multiplicative (“environmental”) stochastic noise amplifies Allee effects. Harvesting also amplifies those effects. Though Allee effects are difficult to detect or measure in natural populations, their presence would seriously impact exploitation, management, and preservation of biological resources.