Consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimator in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models with random regressors

This paper proposes some regularity conditions, which result in the existence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum quasi-likelihood estimator （MQLE） in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） with random regressors. The asymptotic results of generalized linear models （GLM） with random regressors are generalized to QLNM with random regressors.     

拟似然非线性模型中MQLE的弱相合性的充分条件

拟似然非线性模型包括广义线性模型作为一个特殊情形.给出了拟似然非线性模型中极大拟似然估计的弱相合性的一些充分条件,其中矩的条件要弱于文献中极大拟似然估计的强相合性的条件.     

拟似然非线性模型中最大拟似然估计的强相合性

This paper proposes some regularity conditions. On the basis of the proposed regularity conditions, we show the strong consistency of maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） in quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM）. Our results may be regarded as a further generalization of the relevant results in Ref. [4].     

Strong consistency of maximum quasi-likelihood estimates in generalized linear models

In a generalized linear model with q×1 responses, bounded and fixed p×q regressors zi and general link function, under the most general assumption on the minimum eigenvalue of ∑in=1 ZiZi', the moment condition on responses as weak as possible and other mild regular conditions, we prove that with probability one, the quasi-likelihood equation has a solution βn for all large sample size n, which converges to the true regression parameter β0. This result is an essential improvement over the relevant results in literature.     

拟似然非线性模型的某些渐近推断:几何方法

Abstract. A modified Bates and Watts geometric framework is proposed for quasi-likelihoodnonlinear models in Euclidean inner product space. Based on the modified geometric framework,some asymptotic inference in terms of curvatures for quasi-likelihood nonlinear models is stud-ied. Several previous results for nonlinear regression models and exponential family nonlinearmodels etc. are extended to quasi-likelihood nonlinear models.     

The quasi-likelihood estimation in regression

I propose a simply method to estimate the regression parameters in quasi-likelihood model My main approach utilizes the dimension reduction technique to first reduce the dimension of the regressor X to one dimension before solving the quasi-likelihood equations. In addition, the real advantage of using dimension reduction technique is that it provides a good initial estimate for one-step estimator of the regression parameters. Under certain design conditions, the estimators are asymptotically multivariate normal and consistent. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the practical performance of the procedures, and I also assess the cost of CPU time for computing the estimates.This research partially supported by the National Science Council, R.O.C. (Plan No. NSC 82-0208-M-032-023-T).     

Asymptotic normality and strong consistency of maximum quasi-likelihood estimates in generalized linear models

In a generalized linear model with q x 1 responses, the bounded and fixed (or adaptive) p × q regressors Zi and the general link function, under the most general assumption on the minimum eigenvalue of ZiZ'i,the moment condition on responses as weak as possible and the other mild regular conditions, we prove that the maximum quasi-likelihood estimates for the regression parameter vector are asymptotically normal and strongly consistent.     

Quasi-likelihood or extended quasi-likelihood? An information-geometric approach

When the variance is a known function of the mean, as in quasi-likelihood applications, the sample variance also contains information about the mean and extensions of quasi-likelihood functions have been suggested that incorporate this additional information. In order to be sure these extensions are an improvement, further assumptions are made typically on the higher moments of the data so that there is a trade-off between the greater robustness of the quasi-likelihood estimates and the potentially improved estimates based on the extended quasi-likelihood functions. Improvement is often measured by relative efficiency but more insight can be gained by considering optimality of estimating functions, information loss, and sufficiency. All these measures can be described using the dual geometries of the quasi- and extended quasi-likelihood estimators. For a substantial range of models, the extended estimates offer little improvement when the coefficient of variation is small.     

Non-Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimation of SDE driven by locally stable Lévy process

We address estimation of parametric coefficients of a pure-jump Lévy driven univariate stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, which is observed at high frequency over a fixed time period. It is known from the previous study (Masuda, 2013) that adopting the conventional Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator then leads to an inconsistent estimator. In this paper, under the assumption that the driving Lévy process is locally stable, we extend the Gaussian framework into a non-Gaussian counterpart, by introducing a novel quasi-likelihood function formally based on the small-time stable approximation of the unknown transition density. The resulting estimator turns out to be asymptotically mixed normally distributed without ergodicity and finite moments for a wide range of the driving pure-jump Lévy processes, showing much better theoretical performance compared with the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. Extensive simulations are carried out to show good estimation accuracy. The case of large-time asymptotics under ergodicity is briefly mentioned as well, where we can deduce an analogous asymptotic normality result.     

广义线性模型中检验回归参数统计量的渐近分布

在广义线性模型中,若(对某个α>0),且其它一些正则条件满足,可以证明Wald检验统计量的渐近分布是X2分布,其中,是ZiZi'的最小特征根,Zi是有界的p×q回归系数,yi是q×1响应变量．     

自适应设计广义线性模型极大拟似然估计的渐近性

在对Fisher信息矩阵的最小特征根最一般的假定,响应变量的矩条件尽可能弱和其它正则条件下,证明了自适应设计广义线性模型中极大拟似然估计的强相合性与渐近正态性,同时给出了强收敛速度.     

Adaptive quasi-likelihood estimate in generalized linear models

This paper gives a thorough theoretical treatment on the adaptive quasi-likelihood estimate of the parameters in the generalized linear models. The unknown covariance matrix of the response variable is estimated by the sample. It is shown that the adaptive estimator defined in this paper is asymptotically most efficient in the sense that it is asymptotic normal, and the covariance matrix of the limit distribution coincides with the one for the quasi-likelihood estimator for the case that the covariance matrix of the response variable is completely known.     

Boosting local quasi-likelihood estimators

For likelihood-based regression contexts, including generalized linear models, this paper presents a boosting algorithm for local constant quasi-likelihood estimators. Its advantages are the following: (a) the one-boosted estimator reduces bias in local constant quasi-likelihood estimators without increasing the order of the variance, (b) the boosting algorithm requires only one-dimensional maximization at each boosting step and (c) the resulting estimators can be written explicitly and simply in some practical cases.     

Rate of strong consistency of quasi maximum likelihood estimate in generalized linear models

Under the assumption that in the generalized linear model (GLM) the expectation of the response variable has a correct specification and some other smooth conditions, it is shown that with probability one the quasi-likelihood equation for the GLM has a solution when the sample size n is sufficiently large. The rate of this solution tending to the true value is determined. In an important special case, this rate is the same as specified in the LIL for iid partial sums and thus cannot be improved anymore.     

Fuzzy clusterwise quasi-likelihood generalized linear models

The quasi-likelihood method has emerged as a useful approach to the parameter estimation of generalized linear models (GLM) in circumstances where there is insufficient distributional information to construct a likelihood function. Despite its flexibility, the quasi-likelihood approach to GLM is currently designed for an aggregate-sample analysis based on the assumption that the entire sample of observations is taken from a single homogenous population. Thus, this approach may not be suitable when heterogeneous subgroups exist in the population, which involve qualitatively distinct effects of covariates on the response variable. In this paper, the quasi-likelihood GLM approach is generalized to a fuzzy clustering framework which explicitly accounts for such cluster-level heterogeneity. A simple iterative estimation algorithm is presented to optimize the regularized fuzzy clustering criterion of the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method in recovering parameters is investigated based on a Monte Carlo analysis involving synthetic data. Finally, the empirical usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated through an application to actual data on the coupon usage behaviour of a sample of consumers.     

Stochastic models for first-order kinetics of biochemical oxygen demand with random initial conditions, inputs, and coefficients

Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is a parameter of prime importance in surface water pollution studies and in the design and operation of waste-water treatment plants. A general, stochastic analytical model (denoted S1) is developed for the temporal expectation and (heteroscedastic) variance of first-order BOD kinetics. The model is obtained by integrating the moment equation, which is derived from the mathematical theory of stochastic differential equations. This model takes into account random initial conditions, random inputs, and random coefficients, which appear in the model formulation as initial condition (σ_O²), input (σ_l²), and coefficient (σ_c²) variance parameters, respectively. By constraining these three variance parameters to either vanish or to be nonnegative, model S1 is allowed (under appropriate combinations of the constraints) to split into six stochastic “submodels” (denoted S2 to S7), with each of these submodels being a particular case of the general model. Model S1 also degenerates to the deterministic model (denoted D) when each of the variance parameters vanish. The deterministic parameters (i.e., the rate coefficient and the ultimate BOD) and the stochastic variance parameters of the seven models are estimated on sets of replicated BOD data using the maximum likelihood principle. In this study, two (S5 and S7) of these seven stochastic models are found to be appropriate for BOD. The stochastic input (S5) model (i.e., null initial condition and coefficient variance parameters) shows the best prediction capabilities, while the next best is the stochastic initial condition (S7) model (i.e., null input and coefficient variance parameters).     

多维广义线性模型拟极大似然估计的弱相合性

本文考虑多维广义线性模型的拟似然方程$\tsm^n_{i=1}X_i(y_i-\mu(X_i'\xb))=0$, 在一定条件下证明了此方程的解$\wh\xb_n$渐近存在, 并得到了其收敛速度, 即$\wh\xb_n-\xb_0=O_p({\underline{\xl}}_n^{-1/2})$, 其中$\xb_0$为参数$\xb$的真值, $\underline{\xl}_n$是方阵$S_n=\tsm^n_{i=1}X_iX_i'$的最小特征值。     

广义线性模型中极大拟似然估计的强收敛速度

在sup_{i ≥1}E||y_i||^2+α < ∞(对某个α > 0)和其它正则条件下, 证明了一般联系函数的多维广义线性模型拟似然估计的强相合性, 并得到了强收敛速度, 其中 y_i 是响应变量. 此结果是对文献中相应结果的改进.     

Statistical inference for misspecified ergodic Lévy driven stochastic differential equation models

We consider the estimation problem of misspecified ergodic Lévy driven stochastic differential equation models based on high-frequency samples. We utilize a widely applicable and tractable Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach which focuses on mean and variance structure. It is shown that the Gaussian quasi-likelihood estimators of the drift and scale parameters still satisfy polynomial type probability estimates and asymptotic normality at the same rate as the correctly specified case. In their derivation process, the theory of extended Poisson equation for time-homogeneous Feller Markov processes plays an important role. Our result confirms the reliability of the Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for SDE models.     

Global existence for wave maps with torsion

Wave maps (i.e. nonlinear sigma models) with torsion are considered in 2+1 dimensions. Global existence of smooth solutions to the Cauchy problem is proven for certain reductions under a translation group action: invariant wave maps into general targets, and equivariant wave maps into Lie group targets. In the case of Lie group targets (i.e. chiral models), a geometrical characterization of invariant and equivariant wave maps is given in terms of a formulation using frames