异质Stackelberg寡头竞争下创新产品技术许可策略研究

基于异质产品Stackelberg寡头竞争模型,建立了拥有新产品创新技术在位厂商与潜在竞争对手间的技术许可博弈模型.模型中假设潜在竞争对手可以接受许可,也可通过自我研发创新技术进入市场参与竞争.根据潜在竞争对手研发成本的高低,研究了创新厂商的最优两部制收费策略.研究结果表明:潜在竞争者总会接受创新技术许可,最优许可策略依赖于研发成本、市场参数以及产品的替代系数.     

考虑返回补偿策略的制造与再制造的最优决策

作为减少成本的一种有效方式,近年来,再制造获得了企业越来越多的关注.对于再制造企业,如何有效地返回产品是一个基本的问题,为此,考虑了一个返回补偿策略,即企业支付给愿意返回产品的消费者一个价格补偿.在这个策略下,回收数量是随机需求的一个比例.研究了一个两周期的库存系统,企业需要在每周期初决策新材料的采购数量以及分配给制造和再制造方式的生产数量.通过建立一个三级随机动态规划模型,给出了制造和再制造混合系统对于已实现需求的最优生产策略,同时证明了每个周期的目标函数对于库存补充数量是凸的,进而证明基本的库存策略仍然是最优的.最后从管理者的角度进行了数值分析.     

需求不确定的多周期的容量决策问题

研究每个周期的需求随机增加的情形下的容量扩充问题,建立起切合实际的有限周期随机动态规划模型及在期现值准则下的无限周期随机动态规划模型,进而探索生产单一产品的公司在面对随机增加的市场需求时,风险中立的管理者该如何扩充其生产容量,才能使得其公司在折扣意义下的总期望利润最大.研究无限阶段的容量扩充问题,得出某种约束条件下的优化策略解,给公司管理者提供了其长期可持续发展的优化策略和依据.     

自主研发与技术引进对企业绩效影响差异分析

以上海工业企业为研究样本分析了企业自主研发和技术引进对企业绩效的不同贡献.文中将两种不同的促进技术进步策略作异质性的分析处理,同时考虑模型的选择偏差,再通过计量方法的匹配,做基于倾向得分的平均处理效应估计.研究结果显示,同不做任何技术创新与引进的企业相比,试图通过技术进步寻求发展的企业均对企业绩效产生了积极效应.其中技术引进方式对企业的当期利润和企业劳动生产率的提高更优于自主研发方式,而自主研发对于企业TFP的贡献却是大于技术引进的.研究还显示这两种技术进步方式对于不同所有制结构的企业作用不同.     

随机需求下考虑半成品库存的多周期生产决策优化

为了更好地应对需求的不确定性,在需求实现之前,企业既可以生产成品直接满足需求,亦可生产部分半成品,在观察到实际需求之后短时间内迅速完成剩余生产环节以满足需求。未加工的半成品和未售出的成品可用于满足后续周期的需求。作为一种提高生产灵活性的手段,分阶段生产的方式会产生更高的成本。企业需要在成本和灵活性之间作出权衡,优化生产决策。模型通过动态规划的方法,研究需求不确定情况下考虑半成品库存的多周期生产决策问题,通过分析目标函数以及最优值函数的结构性质,推导出最优的多周期生产策略为修正的目标库存策略,并且分析了不同参数对最优策略的影响。     

顾客参与研发过程的价值共创机理与策略研究

顾客参与企业研发是产品价值创造的最初始过程,不仅提高产品接受度、满足顾客需求,而且为企业增加收入,但同时也产生相应成本。文章探究顾客参与研发的系统中,顾客、企业和产品的价值共创行为以及企业决策如何影响三者价值;立足多目标视角,充分考虑企业与顾客的收益、成本,采用系统动力学方法建立顾客参与研发过程的动态价值共创模型,全面探究系统内部共创机理。在模型基础上,重点就企业产品价格、交互次数以及激励资金比例等策略进行仿真,使企业、顾客及产品实现价值共创。结论如下:(1)随着顾客、企业交互次数的增多,顾客参与研发过程同样具备一般产品生命周期导入期、成长期、成熟期以及衰退期的特点。(2)系统存在最优交互次数;且最优交互次数随着研发投入比例减少而增加。(3)在不考虑参与顾客获取激励资金的情况下,企业针对不同顾客群(参与研发顾客与普通购买顾客)进行定价,在最优交互次数状态下,统一定价模式优于差别定价模式,将为企业带来更大的收益。     

基于产量理性推测导数的差异产品企业研发决策

文章通过将推测导数引入企业研发的AJ模型，考察差异产品企业在理性或一致性推测的条件下研发策略和研发投入的变化，通过企业产品差异化参数将寡头企业研发决策扩展到产品相关的企业之间，从而扩大了AJ模型均衡的一般性，文章还给出一致性推测条件下的两种不同类别产品企业研发投入最优成本缩减反应曲线斜率和均衡成本缩减量与溢出效应之间的关系。     

考虑回收品品质可靠性的库存管理策略研究

回收品品质下降是一个客观事实,企业为了在成本支付和产品可靠性之间达成均衡,往往需要设置一个回收品可靠性阈值。本文考察电子产品的订购、到达、销售、回收、剔除过程,以新产品订购成本、新旧产品库存持有成本、产品回收成本、回收品检测清洁成本、短缺成本、抛弃成本和潜在风险成本为目标函数,获得“可靠性阈值—补货策略”的近优解。企业案例仿真结果表明,(s,S)补货策略优于(s,Q)补货策略;敏感性分析表明,新产品单位变动成本、新旧产品单位库存成本对企业成本影响较大;基于分析结果,为企业管理决策提出了参考意见。     

基于个体公平原则的寿险产品定价模型

在无套利框架的基础上,讨论基于个体公平原则下的寿险产品定价问题,即运用倒向随机微分方程理论,将投保人和保险人置于同一系统中进行考虑:首先,根据双方的随机投资决策目标分别建立无套利寿险定价模型和动态资产份额定价模型,得出两个特殊线性倒向随机微分方程的显式解;然后,建立基于个体公平原则的寿险定价模型,从投保人和保险人双方的角度对寿险产品进行公平定价,得出了从供需双方考虑的投资回报定价公式;最后,利用所建立的模型进行案例分析,计算出基于个体公平原则的保费及保险公司的投资策略.该寿险产品定价模型不仅考虑了保险人的意愿,还同时考虑了投保人的实际情况,因此,按此定价理念开发出的保险产品,不仅可以提高产品研发的成功率,而且使得研发出的新产品更能在竞争激烈的保险市场中站稳脚步.     

造船企业与供应商产品质量演化博弈分析

船舶作为大型复杂系统产品,其上游供应商所提供的零部件质量会对最终产品的质量产生重要影响。在考虑造船企业和供应商质量策略和收益的基础上,本文构建了双方的演化博弈模型,对其策略的稳定性开展分析;进一步地,引入了造船企业的动态惩罚措施研究如何对双方的策略产生影响。研究结果表明:(1)造船企业对配套供应商采取产品质量提升措施的奖励和惩罚力度、供应商采取相应措施的收益与成本会直接影响博弈的相关结果;(2)造船企业和配套供应商在三种条件下存在各自的演化稳定策略,同时在一定条件下系统的演化过程呈现周期性质的特征;(3)当造船企业采取动态惩罚措施时,此博弈模型存在稳定的Nash均衡点。研究结果可以为造船企业督促供应商改善供货质量提供决策支持。     

Optimal Goodwill Path to Introduce a New Product

We consider the problem of determining an optimal goodwill path for the introduction of a new product in a market, while looking for the maximum foreseen profit. The foreseen revenue depends on the product introduction time and on the goodwill level at the same time. We focus on the advertising costs associated with the goodwill evolution and assume that the cost function possesses some rather general features which are shared by the cost functions of the Nerlove-Arrow type models. The dynamic optimization problem is discussed in the calculus of variations framework. A few examples associated with special cost functions are discussed in detail.     

Supply chain dynamic configuration as a result of new product development

This study considers supply chain network configuration in an innovative environment while the new product development (NPD) will affect the supply chain configuration (SCC). The time of new product introduction has a significant effect on the market performance while it has an effect on the supply chain configuration. Supplier integration into the new product introduction is the key parameter for successfully new product introduction, which may contribute to supply chain reconfiguration. Consequently By considering the new product development concept, we may face with dynamic supply chain configuration during a planning horizontal time. In this study, a new model is presented to consider the dynamic configuration of a supply chain by developing new products. In the proposed model, the dynamic configuration of a supply chain and the new product launching time is optimized simultaneously. The proposed model considers production, sales and transportation planning for the entire supply chain in order to achieve an integrative and efficient supply as well. Then some numerical analyses have been done to show the applicability of the proposed model. The results show that the new product development has a significant effect on the configuration of supply chain.     

A multi-period ordering and clearance pricing model considering the competition between new and out-of-season products

The joint management of pricing and inventory for perishable products has become an important problem for retailers. This paper investigates a multi-period ordering and clearance pricing model under consideration of the competition between new and out-of-season products. In each period, the ordering quantity of the new product and the clearance price of the out-of-season product are determined as decision variables before the demand is realized, and the unsold new product becomes the out-of-season one of the next period. We establish a finite-horizon Markov decision process model to formulate this problem and analyze its properties. A traditional dynamic program (DP) approach with two-dimensional search is provided. In addition, a myopic policy is derived in which only the profit of the current period is considered. Finally, we apply genetic algorithm (GA) to this problem and design a GA-based heuristic approach, showing by comparison among different algorithms that the GA-based heuristic approach is more performance sound than the myopic policy and much less time consuming than the DP approach.     

选择与评价新产品开发的风险决策研究

本文针对企业投资决策者在新产品开发中的风险决策,基于贝叶斯决策理论及其相关研究建立了评估外部情报信息价值的数学模型,探讨投资决策者风险倾向、新产品开发风险投资未来市场需求以及情报费用对投资决策的影响机制,并用于评估新产品开发决策。研究结果有助于理解企业决策者进行新产品开发决策时应考虑的因素和情境,并能够辅助决策。最后,将这一数学模型应用到一家大型高科技企业的案例中。应用案例分析结果表明:本文的研究结论能够为企业开发新产品提供相关的决策依据。     

Dynamic pricing of remanufacturable products under demand substitution: a product life cycle model

We consider a manufacturer who sells both the new and remanufactured versions of a product over its life cycle. The manufacturer’s profit depends crucially on her ability to synchronize product returns with the sales of the remanufactured product. This gives rise to a challenging dynamic optimization problem where the size of both the market and the user pool are dynamic and their current values depend on the entire history. We provide an analytical characterization of the manufacturer’s optimal pricing, production, and inventory policies which lead to a practical threshold policy with a small optimality gap. In addition, our analysis offers a number of interesting insights. First, the timing of remanufacturing activity and its co-occurrence with new product manufacturing critically depends on remanufacturing cost benefits, attractiveness of the remanufactured product and product return rate. Second, there is a small upward jump in the price of the new product when remanufacturing is introduced. Third, the manufacturer keeps the new product longer on the market as the cost of remanufacturing decreases. Fourth, partially satisfying demand for the remanufactured item is never optimal, i.e., it is satisfied either fully or not at all. Finally, user pool and inventory of returned products are substitutes in ensuring the supply for future remanufacturing.     

Information acquisition in new product introduction

In the presence of huge losses from unsuccessful new product introductions, companies often seek forecast information from various sources. As the information can be costly, companies need to determine how much effort to put into acquiring the information. Such a decision is strategically important because an insufficient investment may cause lack of knowledge of product profitability, which in turn may lead to introducing a loss-making product or scrapping a potentially profitable one. In this paper, we use decision analytical models to study information acquisition for new product introduction. Specifically, we consider a decision maker (DM) who, prior to introducing a new product, can purchase forecasts and use the information to update his knowledge of the market demand. We analyze and compare two approaches: The first approach is to determine the total amount of forecasts to purchase all at once. The second one is to purchase forecasts sequentially and, based on the purchased forecasts, determine whether those forecasts are informative enough for making an introduction decision or an additional forecast is needed. We present dynamic programming formulations for both approaches and derive the optimal policies. Via a numerical study, we find the second approach, i.e., purchasing forecasts sequentially, can generate a significant profit advantage over the first one when (1) the cost of acquiring forecasts is neither too high nor too low, (2) the precision of the forecasts is of a moderate level, and (3) the profit margin of the new product is small.     

New product advertising in dynamic oligopolies

The success of the introduction of a new product in a market is very sensitive to the marketing decision variables adopted by the firm. In the present paper we are concerned with the question of new product advertising in a heterogeneous oligopoly market consisting of N firms. A dynamic game is formulated to model strategic as well as sales interactions in such a market. Optimal advertising strategies are identified as open-loop Nash solutions.The comments of two anonymous referees are appreciated. The first author wishes to acknowledge support from NSERC (Grant No. OGP0037342).     

Investing in product development and production capabilities: The crucial linkage between time-to-market and ramp-up time

Shorter product life cycles, more rapid product obsolescence, and the increasing intensity of global competition have driven firms to strive for a more rapid introduction of new products to market. We introduce a normative model which yields insights concerning several key new product development (NPD) decisions. First, we examine investment strategies related to the timing and duration for investments in both design and process capacity over a given planning horizon. Second, the model offers guidance regarding the optimal time-to-market and ramp-up time necessary to meet peak demand for the new product. The model thus provides both theoretical and managerial insights into the crucial linkage between time-to-market and ramp-up time decisions. Finally, the implications of several specific NPD investment mechanisms on these NPD metrics are explored.     

Operationalizing technology improvements in product development decision-making

Achieving competitive advantage and price premiums in many technology-based markets requires the incorporation of current technology in new products. To do so, firms in hyper-competitive environments increasingly plan and design their products concurrent with the independent development and validation of underlying technologies. Simultaneous validation of a core technology has important implications for a company’s product positioning and launch sequence decisions making these traditional marketing decisions relevant to operations managers. Prior research has shown that to minimize cannibalization in the absence of such improvements in technology, a firm should not launch low-end products before high-end products. However, concurrent evolution of technology can make it desirable and even necessary to introduce low-end products before high-end products. This is because in technology-based industries, improvements in technology delay the introduction of a high-end product, and a firm must trade-off the benefit of launching the low-end product earlier (greater discounted profits) against the cost of cannibalization of high-end product sales. High-end product cannibalization can be further reduced by offering the customer an option to upgrade from the low-end to high-end product, with important implications for the firm’s product positioning and introduction sequence decisions. Based on our study in the high technology industry, we model the product positioning and introduction sequence decisions under the simultaneous evolution of technology. Our analysis indicates that it may be optimal in a variety of circumstances for a firm to launch products in an increasing order of performance, even in the absence of network externalities. Besides presenting analytical results for product positioning and profit from different introduction sequences, the paper also makes a contribution to managerial practice by providing insights in the form of a conceptual framework.     

Optimal timing decisions for the introduction of new technologies

High technology industries, such as the communications industry, are characterized by frequent development of new technologies. These new technologies are often available before the capacities of existing facilities that use an old technology are exhausted. Whenever a new technology facility is introduced, a fixed set-up cost is generally incurred; however, the annual operating costs are often reduced. The optimal timing of the introduction of new facilities is therefore of interest.In this paper, we examine such timing decisions. The study was motivated by an application involving electronic plug-in units that enhance the operation of communication facilities. First, we develop optimal timing decisions for linearly growing demand. The analysis is then extended to nonlinear demand. For linear demand, one of two decisions is optimal: Either introduce the new technology immediately, or as late as possible. However, for nonlinear demand, these decisions may be nonoptimal.