基于变权函数的水质综合评价多属性决策模型

从实际操作角度出发,本文构建了一种基于变权函数的水质综合评价多属性决策模型。首先,对水质评价中需要考虑的指标关注程度差异、指标表现程度差异及相关的妥协机制均进行了意义明确的参数化描述。其次,在机理上保证了指标权重随样本表现上的差异能进行有控制的再分配,同时,在结果上保证了较高的关注指标的表现对综合评价值始终具有相对较高的影响力,而且在样本表现相近的情形下又保持较高的区分度。最后,结合水质综合评价算例进行了分析与讨论。     

医疗质量综合评价指标可比性研究

应用直接标化法计算病种构成变化对医疗质量综合评价指标的影响程度并算出标化值。１９９１年病种构成变化对治愈率、病死率、平均住院日变化的影响程度分别为６９．９１％，８４．９６％，８６．７７％，表明病种构成变化对医疗质量综合评价指标的影响不容忽视，未经标化的指标无可比性     

混合不确定性下基于区间证据随机抽样的统一赋权法

由于评价问题的复杂性,以及专家知识和经验的局限性,群决策信息中往往同时包含不同程度的不确定性。在区间证据理论框架下对认知不确定性信息、多区间概率信息、不完全信息等混合不确定信息进行统一表示,进而根据区间证据间的相似度对群决策信息进行融合;采用区间数对评语等级进行定量化,并根据融合结果构造个指标重要程度的概率分布函数;最后通过概率分布函数的蒙特卡洛随机抽样确定指标权重。算例分析结果表明了新方法的有效性。     

基于演化博弈的军民融合技术协同创新行为稳定性分析

基于演化博弈理论,从市场机制和政府奖惩机制两个角度出发,构建军民融合技术协同创新演化博弈模型,分析影响协同创新行为稳定性的因素.研究表明:军民融合技术协同创新行为稳定性与协同创新产生的成本、技术风险负相关;与技术转移能力、隐形壁垒强度、技术收益增量正相关;协同创新意愿与军民双方的技术实力差距相关;同时,在政府奖惩机制下,军民融合技术协同创新行为稳定性增强,由此为促进军民融合技术协同创新长期稳定提出建议.     

灰色关联分析在中国交通事故综合评价中的应用

利用数学软件M ATLAB制作了一个多元灰色关联分析工具箱,并用该工具箱对1997~2006年中国31个地区交通事故统计数据进行多元灰色关联分析,从18个社会经济因素中找出了对交通事故指标影响关系最为密切的几个社会经济因素,并对中国31个地区10年交通事故危害程度作综合评价.研究表明:各地区"生产总值"及"旅客周转量"等社会因素对交通事故四个指标(发生起数、死亡人数、受伤人数和损失折款)影响最大;多考虑"生产总值"及"旅客周转量"两个指标对31个地区的交通事故危害程度的综合评价,比仅仅考虑四个交通事故指标的综合评价,结果更为合理;1997~2006年中国交通事故最为严重的前3个地区为:广东、浙江、福建.研究结果可供交通管理部门参考.     

水资源紧缺程度评估模型

首先研究了现有的国际通用缺水指标,在分析这些指标优缺点的基础上,提出了一个新的衡量水资源紧缺程度的指标——Q指标,不仅考虑了水资源的供需状况,而且还考虑了一个国家的人口对水资源紧缺程度的影响;然后,分别计算了151个国家的Q指标,并对水资源紧缺程度进行了分析;其次,以水资源紧缺程度严重的印度为例,分析了印度缺水的主要原因,并对印度未来15年的缺水状况作出预测;最后,给出了缓解印度缺水状况的干预计划的建议。     

综合评价中数据变换方法的选择

为了消除不同评价指标中不同的量纲和量纲单位带来的不可公度性,本文讨论了综合评价中数据变换方法的选择问题.根据序号总和理论,本文将各评价指标作无量纲化处理,根据各无量纲化方法所做的等级排序与合理等级排序的＂距离＂进行无量纲化方法的优选,并通过实例分析得出了相应的结论.均值化方法保留了各指标变异程度的信息,是一种较好的数据处理方法.     

轨道交通产业全产业链的韧性-脆弱性研究

首先,论述了韧性-脆弱性理论,界定了韧性-脆弱性的内涵．其次,分析了全产业链的产业韧性-脆弱性的形成机理,包括全产业链韧性-脆弱性和轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性两个概念的界定．第三,构建了轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性评价指标,内部评价指标来自于企业管理水平等5个影响因子,外部评价指标来自于资源禀赋等3个影响因子．第四,实证分析了轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性评价,得出8个指标分别影响该产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性的情况是：企业规模、技术密集度、交通成本和对外开发程度这4个指标的影响显著,劳动力成本对产业影响程度不大,消费购买力和专利申请数及政策支持影响不显著．最后,从提高产业技术创新能力等5个方面,提出缓解轨道交通产业全产业链韧性-脆弱性的对策建议．     

基于聚类赋权的科学发展评价模型及实证

根据坚持以人为本,树立全面、协调、可持续的发展观,促进经济社会和人的全面发展的科学发展观内涵,以权威机构典型观点的高频指标为基础,从经济、生态、社会、人的全面发展、科学技术等五个方面构建了地级市科学发展评价指标体系。建立了基于聚类赋权的科学发展评价模型,并采用辽宁省地级市2007年的数据进行实证研究。本文的创新及特色一是根据有、无特定指标两种状态对评价对象聚类结果影响的大小来确定这个指标的权重。反映了对评价结果影响越大的指标、其权重应该越大的思路,改变了现有研究在确定权重时忽略指标对评价结果影响程度大小的问题。二是影响地级市科学发展的指标的重要性程度从大到小依次是:科技进步贡献率、人均公园绿地面积、万元GDP综合能耗、工业固体废物综合利用率、人均绿色GDP、恩格尔系数、工农业总产值比率、基尼系数、财政支出占GDP比重和全社会劳动生产率等10个指标。     

中国通货膨胀的原因分析

本文从定性定量两个方面分析中国通货膨胀的深层原因，提出了中国通货膨胀程度的衡量指标，通过建立多目标决策模型，对反通货膨胀代价作了系统的分析．     

制造网络中信息系统能力对中小企业间知识共享的影响研究

针对制造网络,从能力视角,研究信息系统集成能力、业务覆盖能力、区域连接能力、人力资源能力和信息系统支持的无形资产能力对中小企业间知识共享的影响.对河北省和天津市近10家具有"电子合作"特征的中小制造企业进行调研,收回有效问卷163份,采用SPSS12.0进行数据分析.结果显示:信息系统集成能力对企业间知识共享的影响程度最大,其次是区域连接能力,再次是人力资源能力,而无形资产能力和业务覆盖能力对企业间知识共享没有显著影响.为管理者构建面向企业间知识共享的信息系统提供参考.     

The impact of illiquidity on the asset management of insurance companies

This paper investigates optimal asset management strategies for property and casualty insurance companies in illiquid markets. Using a cash-flow based liquidation model of an insurance company, we consider the effects of permanent and temporary price impact as well as commonality in price impact. Focusing on the interaction of a single large investor with the financial market makes the main results generally applicable for any institutional investor with stochastic future liabilities and restrictions on short-sales and financial leverage. Our analysis reveals a clear diversification benefit in illiquid markets apart from the one introduced by Markowitz [Markowitz, H., 1952. Portfolio selection. J. Financ. 7, 77-91]. In the presence of commonality, cash-flow matching is shown to be the optimal strategy for a large investor.     

Integration of Technology in the Design of Geometry Tasks with Cabri-Geometry

Beginning with the gap in France between the institutional support for the use of technology in mathematics teaching and its weak integration into teacher practice, this paper claims that integrating technology into teaching is a long process. The aim of the paper is to identify and analyse the steps in this integration using as an example the evolution over time (3 years) in the design of teaching scenarios based on Cabri-géomètre for high school students. The analysis indicates that the role played by the technology moved from being a visual amplifier or provider of data towards being an essential constituent of the meaning of tasks and as a consequence affected the conceptions of the mathematical objects that the students might construct.This revised version was published online in September 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于服务竞争的航运供应链的纵向整合决策

在港口服务竞争下构建两条平行竞争的港口—承运商—货代三级航运供应链,研究承运商的纵向整合决策,并结合货主效益识别不同整合策略的可行条件及其均衡特征。研究发现,对手链的整合策略仅影响自身链是否选择纵向整合。当承运商选择整合策略时,前向整合策略的选择取决于港口服务竞争程度,而后向整合策略的选择则与港口服务投入系数有关。在对手链不同的整合策略下,都存在一个最优条件,此时承运商选择后向整合能够同时最大化自身利润和满足货主期望。     

Accuracy assessment to applying 20-node solid elements to pressurized composite shells

A factorial analysis is conducted to explore the impact of five factors — aspect ratio, radius-to-thickness ratio, material anisotropy, fiber angle and integration order on the finite element accuracy, with regard to the application of 20-node isoparametric solid elements to clamped composite cylindrical shells subjected to internal pressure. The maximum radial displacement at the central cross-section is employed as the indicator of accuracy. Results from finite element methods were compared with closed-form solutions. Aspect ratio, radius-to- thickness ratio, and integration order are significant main effects as predicted for isotropic materials. Material anisotropy shows no significant main effect, while the fiber angle does have strong impact on the finite element accuracy. In addition to four influential main effects, some multiple-factor interactions are shown to have significant influences on the finite element accuracy. The analysis is limited to the linear elastic range.     

基于多任务委托—代理理论的高校教师激励机制研究

对高校教师的激励是高等教育中一个非常重要的环节,对高校教师合理的激励机制设计是提高高等教育水平的制度保证.从教师激励工作中高校管理者作为委托人与高校教师作为代理人二者信息不对称的角度出发,运用博弈论与委托代理理论,将高校教师工作进行教学努力和科研努力的划分,运用多任务委托代理理论对教师激励机制进行研究,建立模型进行分析,并结合西安科技大学现实提出合理化建议,以求达到既提高教学质量又提高科研产出水平的目的.     

Optimal Execution in a Market with Small Investors

Abstract

The author considers the dynamic trading strategies that minimize the expected cost of trading a large block of securities over a fixed finite number of periods. In this model, the market impact function that yields the execution prices for individual trades is endogeneously determined. This analysis is novel in that it introduces small investors, who do not affect the price flow, and a noise trader as market participants other than the institutional investors into a general equilibrium model. It is found that the institutional investor takes a rather complicated strategy to make use of its private information. As a result, the price impact not only changes over time but also depends on the trade history. Although there are several studies that deal with this topic in the recent empirical literature, it has remained unnoticed in the context of the theoretical optimal execution model.     

Cost impact of float loss on a project with adjustable activity durations

Although delays to non-critical activities within the float do not always affect the overall completion time of a project, they commonly cause disputes over the impact cost and apportionment resulting from the complexity of resource utilization in construction projects. Therefore, considerable attention has been focused on providing an effective and reliable method for analysing the effects of float loss. Several recent studies have proposed various methods; however, most of these methods are based on the assumption of a fixed duration for each activity or activity-based cost simulation. Few studies have considered the trade-off between time and costs and the integration of project resources. Using genetic algorithms, this study introduces a critical path method (CPM)-modified resource-integrated optimization model and successfully quantifies the impact of float loss on the total cost of the project. The results provide objective quantification for accurately evaluating the impact of within-float delays and facilitate the analysis of the impact of delay claims on cost and apportionment in construction projects.     

对象标识统一化程度影响物流资源整合的系统动力学分析

为了分析对象标识统一化程度对物流资源整合的影响,提出利用系统动力学理论建立反馈模型。采用2002年以来国家统计局和《中国现代物流发展报告》的数据,设计模型变量,并进行回归,以确定变量关系方程式。在该模型中采用物流资源利用率、企业间合作比例、物流行业总收益作为衡量物流资源整合水平的指标,运用Vensim仿真对象标识统一化程度与三者之间的相互影响。模拟结果显示对象标识统一化程度对物流资源利用率、企业间合作比例和物流行业总收益均有正向影响。该研究表明提升对象标识统一化程度可以有效提高企业间的沟通,促进物流资源整合水平的提高,实现物流产业对经济增长的可持续拉动作用。     

A finite element method for contact/impact

Ideas from the analysis of differential-algebraic equations are applied to the numerical solution of frictionless contact/impact problems in solid mechanics. Index-one and two formulations for dynamic contact–impact within the context of the finite element method are derived. The resulting equations are shown to stabilize the kinematic fields at the contact interface, at the expense of a small energy loss, which is shown to decrease consistently with mesh refinement. This energy dissipation is shown to be necessary for the establishment of persistent contact. A Newmark-type time integration scheme is derived from the proposed formulation, and shown to yield excellent results in modeling the transition to contact/impact.