基于产业结构和能源视角的浙江省经济增长的实证分析

本文从Solow模型出发,同时将产业结构、能源和对外贸易因子纳入到Cobb-Douglas生产函数中,建立主成分回归模型,实证研究了产业结构和能源消费对经济增长的作用程度.本文同时基于能源与产业结构的分析,是对已有研究的一次有益尝试.回归结果显示:产业结构因素和能源因素对浙江省经济增长较其他因素具有较强的正向带动作用.最后,本文给出了相关建议,建议相关部门尤其要做好产业结构优化升级与能源消费结构优化的"两手抓"工作。     

基于SPA-TOPSIS方法的能源结构优化程度评价

以能源低碳化发展为基础,从社会经济发展程度、能源规划合理程度、环境和谐程度三个准则层入手,构建能源结构优化程度评价指标体系。运用改进惯性权重的PSO算法确定评价体系权重,并基于SPA-TOPSIS法构建能源结构优化程度评价模型,对30个省、自治区、直辖市的区域能源结构优化程度进行实证研究。实证结果表明:区域社会经济发展水平对能源结构优化程度有直接影响,且各区域能源结构优化程度差异较大,总体呈现“东高西低”的格局;清洁能源消费占比、原煤消费占比、烟尘排放等因素对能源结构优化程度影响显著。     

能源强度变动的多因素分解方法研究

为更加全面、准确地度量影响能源强度变动的因素,在分析相关研究文献的基础上,提出包含产业结构份额、部门能源效率份额和能源结构份额的三因素几何均值能源强度分解模型,该模型不仅能够将能源消费结构对能源强度的影响从产业结构和部门效率份额中分离出来,而且克服了当数据集合中出现零值时,现有处理方法产生较大误差的缺点,提供了一种精度较高的多因素能源强度分解方法.     

The number of energy levels of a particle in a uniform MQW structure

A recently obtained multilayer equation that gives the eigenvalues of the energy of a quantum particle in an arbitrary one-dimensional piecewise constant potential field is studied. In particular, this equation can be used to calculate the eigenvalues of the particle’s energy in an MQW structure, in which the potential takes only two different values in the various layers. A formula is analyzed that was obtained earlier by the author for the number of energy levels in a uniform MQW structure, i.e., in a structure with potential wells and walls of constant widths. The equation is substantiated for all uniform MQW structures. It is proved that the number of energy levels in a uniform MQW structure increases indefinitely with unlimited growth of the number of potential wells. The existence of uniform MQW structures with an arbitrarily large prescribed number of potential wells and with a single energy level is proved.     

中国能源需求预测函数：主成份辅助的协整分析

本文运用主成份分析法辅助协整和误差校正模型建立中国能源需求的预测模型,并利用数据进行实证检验,结果表明中国能源价格已经能在一定程度上反映能源供求状况,而且利用产业结构调整降低能耗的方法是可行的。在长期中,人口结构,产业结构,燃料价格、消费水平、矿物燃料、润滑油及有关原料的进出口水平影响着中国的能源需求;在短期中,经济产出和产业结构灵敏度较高,显著影响能源需求。该模型预测效果良好,可以为能源需求的预测与管理提供参考。     

Chinese regional energy efficiency change and its determinants analysis: Malmquist index and Tobit model

China becomes the largest energy consumer in 2010 but its energy productivity is well below the world average. To meet China’s fast growing energy using, energy efficiency should be especially emphasized under China’s energy policy. This paper focuses on the regional level of energy efficiency change in China. And we analyze total factor energy efficiency for 30 Chinese provinces over the period 1998–2009 using Malmquist index method and Tobit analysis. The Malmquist estimation results suggest there is a dropping change trend of energy productivity growth. Chinese energy efficiency still faces with huge regional disparity, but the energy technical efficiency reflects convergence in the nationwide and west region. As a result of Tobit regression, we find that industrial structure, energy consumption structure and institutional factor have different influences on energy efficiency.     

Calculation of cohesive energy of actinide metals

According to empirical electron theory of solids and molecules (EET), an equation for calculating the cohesive energy of actinide metals is given, the cohesive energy of 9 actinide metals with known crystal structure is calculated, which is identical with the experimental values on the whole, and the cohesive energy of 6 actinide metals with unknown crystal structure is forecast.     

低碳经济范式下能源结构优化程度评价研究

我国的能源瓶颈突出表现为结构性矛盾。本文以能源经济学为理论支撑,从低碳经济发展对能源结构要求的角度,提出了社会经济效益、能源规划效益、环境效益等三个维度,并分析了各个维度的构成要素;综合运用粗糙集理论和AHP法进行指标约简和权值计算,构建了低碳经济范式下能源结构优化程度评价指标体系。在此基础上,对各评价指标设置分级标准,通过未确知测度评价模型对2010年我国10个省份的能源结构优化程度进行多指标综合测度与评价,阐明了该评价方法的科学有效性及评价结果的合理性。     

基于产业结构优化的节能减排离散动态演化模型

从中国能源环境现状出发,基于产业结构发展趋势及其演变规律,运用动态投入产出分析法,对现有数据进行分析,结合演化理论,提出能源消耗演化目标和污染排放演化目标,建立节能减排下的离散动态演化模型,深入探讨节能减排策略和优化产业结构方法.模型对中国2000-2008年的数据进行拟合检验,得出中国三次产业经济产值、中国能源消耗量及污染排放量,并将其与实际情况进行比较,从节能减排和产业结构优化两个方面给予实证分析.基于建立的模型,结合情景分析法对中国2015年的经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放进行预测并对预测结果进行演化情景分析为中国制定相应的节能减排策略、实现产业结构优化提供了理论依据,为中国实现能源环境可持续发展提供了一个全新的视角和路线.     

能耗强度与能源结构优化对内生经济增长影响研究

本文在垂直创新模型框架下,将能耗强度和碳减排比例引入生产函数,将人们对气候变化的警惕意识引入效用函数,建立了一个动态的内生低碳经济增长模型。通过求解所建动态优化模型,找到了经济长期均衡增长的最优路径,讨论了能源强度和能源消费结构变化与经济均衡增长的相互关系,分析了各参数对经济最优增长路径的影响,比较了化石能源内部消费结构不变和逐年清洁两种情景下的经济最优增长路径的异同。长期来看,能源强度、二氧化碳减排速率与经济增长率有相互的负向线性关系,缩小反映化石能源内部消费结构的综合碳排放系数对经济增长有促进作用。非化石能源比例越高,低碳技术应用越广泛,研发成果对技术积累的贡献率越大,消费者对当前消费的偏好程度越小,人们对气候变化的警惕意识越强,则越有利于经济的低碳发展。     

优化能源消费结构对河北省碳强度目标实现的贡献潜力分析

本文首先运用情景预测方法预测河北省未来地区生产总值和能源消费总量;然后构建马尔科夫链模型预测河北省未来能源消费结构,并对计算的平均转移概率矩阵进行优化;最后分不同组合情景评估能源消费结构优化对河北省二氧化碳排放强度目标的贡献潜力。结果表明:各种组合情景能源消费结构调整都能在不同程度上促进碳强度下降,对实现碳强度目标具有不同程度的贡献潜力。但是,在最理想状态下贡献潜力也只有16.7%~17.8%。因此,能源消费结构优化对碳强度目标贡献潜力作用有限,仅依靠能源结构优化无法完全实现碳强度目标,必须靠政府、企业以及社会各界一致努力,采取一系列对策才能顺利实现河北省“十三五”能源规划中制定的碳强度目标。     

A continuous variable neighborhood search heuristic for finding the three-dimensional structure of a molecule

We develop a continuous variable neighborhood search heuristic for minimizing the potential energy function of a molecule. Computing the global minimum of this function is very difficult because it has a large number of local minimizers which grows exponentially with molecule size. Experimental evidence shows that in the great majority of cases the global minimum potential energy of a given molecule corresponds to its three-dimensional structure and this structure is important because it dictates most of the properties of the molecule. Computational results for problems with up to 200 degrees of freedom are presented and favourable compared with other two existing methods from the literature.     

Fuzzy measure analysis of public attitude towards the use of nuclear energy

This paper is concerned with applying fuzzy measures and fuzzy integrals to analyze public attitude towards the use of nuclear energy. To this end, a questionnaire on the use of nuclear energy is set up and data are collected in Japan, the Philippines and the FRG. Factor analysis is performed to get the primary structure of public attitude. It is shown that the attitude of the responders to the questionnaire in each country is well explained with its hierarchical structure obtained by fuzzy measure analysis.     

On the chaotic behavior of the non-ideal vibrating systems

The paper discusses the chaotic behavior of a vibrating structure coupled to an energy source. The structural response of this system may act like energy sink under certain conditions so that a part of the energy supplied by the source is spend to vibrate the structure rather than increasing the drive speed, according to the Sommerfeld effect [1]. The energy source is influenced by the response of the system and consequently, the system exhibits jumps at critical values of the energy source. The system mimics a disappearance of the energy in the resonance regions which can affect the stability of the system, sending it to chaos [2-4]. (© 2015 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A Complex Mode Method for Wind-Induced Responses of 6-Parameter Practical Viscoelastic Damping Energy Dissipation Structures Based on the Davenport Wind Speed Spectrum北大核心CSCD

针对六参数实用黏弹性阻尼耗能结构,基于Davenport风速谱系列响应问题进行了系统的研究.首先,利用六参数黏弹性阻尼器的微分型本构关系,建立了耗能结构基于Davenport风速谱激励下的运动方程;然后,运用复模态法将耗能结构的运动方程由二阶微分方程转化为一阶方程,获得了耗能结构系统对风振激励响应的频域解和功率谱密度函数表达式;最后,利用数学恒等式,基于随机振动理论获得了耗能结构系统在Davenport风速谱激励下的响应和阻尼器受力的解析解.该文方法不仅考虑了结构系统在风振激励作用下全振型展开的结果,表达式较现有结果更为简便,效率及精度更高,且适用于非经典阻尼结构.     

中国环境由灰变蓝供给侧改革的社会经济影响因素研究——基于Fuzzy-DEMATEL的实证分析

供给侧改革成为中国环境由灰变蓝的关键.为探讨环境改善各影响因素之间的相互作用与影响程度,在文献研究基础上,从人口、经济和政策三大视角提取了影响中国环境的12个社会经济因素,利用Fuzzy-DEMATEL方法对各社会经济影响因素的因果类型和作用程度进行实证检验.结果发现,1)中国环境由灰变蓝的5大关键因素为:能源消费结构、人口规模、产业结构、清洁技术研发水平和能源利用效率;2)原因因素为能源消费结构和人口规模;结果因素为产业结构、清洁技术研发水平和能源利用效率.其中能源消费结构和产业结构分别为最重要的原因因素和最重要的结果因素;3)创新手段和创新技术能够显著改善环境质量.     

中国能源强度与经济结构变化特征研究

中国经济持续增长伴随着能源强度下降的特征引起部分学者对中国经济增长和能源消费数据真实性的怀疑,因此,对中国能源强度变化特征进行研究具有重要的现实意义。迄今为止,对中国经济结构变动如何影响能源强度变化仍然缺少定量研究。本文分析了中国能源强度的变化趋势,说明其前后趋势基本上是一致、合理的。以此为基础,将能源强度变化分解为结构份额和效率份额,提出了结构份额和效率份额的计算方法,对我国能源强度变化中的结构份额和效率份额进行了定量分析,结构表明:1998-2000年间,我国能源强度下降的主要动力来自于各产业能源利用效率的提高,其中工业能源强度下降是总体能源强度下降的主要原因。     

Systems accounting for energy consumption and carbon emission by building

The method of systems accounting for overall energy consumption and carbon emission induced by a building is illustrated in terms of a combination of process and input–output analyses with a concrete procedure to cover various material, equipment, energy and manpower inputs. A detailed case study based on raw project data in the Bill of Quantities (BOQ) is performed for the structure engineering of the landmark buildings in E-town, Beijing (Beijing Economic–Technological Development Area). Based on the embodied energy and carbon emission intensity database for the Chinese economy in 2007, the energy consumption and the carbon emission of the structure engineering of the case buildings are quantified as 4.15E+14 J and 4.83E+04 t CO₂ Eq., corresponding to intensities of 6.91E+09 J/m² and 0.81 t CO₂ Eq./m² floor area. Steel and concrete contribute respectively about 50% and 30% of the energy consumption and the carbon emission, as a result of the reinforced-concrete structure of the case buildings. Materials contribute up to about 90% of the total energy consumption and carbon emission, in contrast to manpower, energy and equipment around 8%, 1% and 0.1%, respectively.     

Some Regularity Results In Ferromagnetism

The magnetism of a rigid ferromagnet occupying a spatial region Ωis described by a unit vectorfield m on Ω. The total energy of m involves several terms: the anisotropy energy imposed by the lattice structure of the material, the exchange energy discouraging very rapid local changes in m , the applied energy due to external magnetic sources, and the induced magnetic field energy. Here, while incorporating all energy terms, we show that minimizers have at most isolated singularities, usually in the interior of Ω, and that there is nice asymptotic behavior at such singularities. In contrast to related harmonic map problems, the field energy is a nonlocal term, involving a solution of Maxwell's equations with coefficients depending on m     

Homogenization and Geometric Linearization for Multi-Well Energies

The concept of linear elasticity is to assume that the stored energy has one-well structure and to consider small displacements. The energy function is then expanded around the equilibrium state and higher-order terms are neglected. It was proved in [3] that this concept really gives results that provide a good approximation for the actual problem. On the other hand, for materials with fine periodic structure we accomplish a simplification of the problem in an analogous manner by homogenizing the energy. It was recently shown by Müller and Neukamm in [8] that both processes, homogenization and linearization, are interchangeable for such elastic energies. If we consider an energy with multiple wells then, under some reasonable conditions, it is also possible to (geometrically) linearize the problem. The second author proved that quasiconvexification of the limit function yields the desired result. We present that in this case both processes still commute. This is not a priori clear since the proof by Müller and Neukamm significantly rests upon the one-well structure and properties of quadratic forms. They also provide an example when the statement does not hold. (© 2013 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)