| 优化能源消费结构对河北省碳强度目标实现的贡献潜力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王新利,黄元生,刘诗剑.优化能源消费结构对河北省碳强度目标实现的贡献潜力分析[J].运筹与管理,2020,29(12):140-146. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王新利 黄元生 刘诗剑 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学 经济管理系,河北 保定 071000 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省社会科学基金项目(HB15YJ039);中央高校基金项目(2017MS173) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文首先运用情景预测方法预测河北省未来地区生产总值和能源消费总量;然后构建马尔科夫链模型预测河北省未来能源消费结构,并对计算的平均转移概率矩阵进行优化;最后分不同组合情景评估能源消费结构优化对河北省二氧化碳排放强度目标的贡献潜力。结果表明:各种组合情景能源消费结构调整都能在不同程度上促进碳强度下降,对实现碳强度目标具有不同程度的贡献潜力。但是,在最理想状态下贡献潜力也只有16.7%~17.8%。因此,能源消费结构优化对碳强度目标贡献潜力作用有限,仅依靠能源结构优化无法完全实现碳强度目标,必须靠政府、企业以及社会各界一致努力,采取一系列对策才能顺利实现河北省“十三五”能源规划中制定的碳强度目标。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源结构 碳排放强度 贡献潜力 情景预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-03-05 |
Potential Assessment of Optimizing Energy Structure to Carbon Intensity Target in Hebei Province |
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| WANG Xin-li,HUANG Yuan-sheng,LIU Shi-jian.Potential Assessment of Optimizing Energy Structure to Carbon Intensity Target in Hebei Province[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2020,29(12):140-146. |
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| Authors: | WANG Xin-li HUANG Yuan-sheng LIU Shi-jian |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Economic Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071000, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper mainly studies the potential contribution of optimizing primary energy consumption structure to carbon intensity in Hebei province. First of all, the scenario prediction model is used to forecast the future GDP and total energy consumption in Hebei province; then the Markov chain model is built to predict the future energy consumption structure in Hebei province and optimization thought is applied to optimize the calculated average transfer probability matrix; finally 27 composite scenarios are used to evaluate the potential contribution of energy consumption structure optimization to the carbon intensity target of Hebei province in 2020. The results show that the structural adjustment of energy consumption in varying composite scenarios can promote the carbon intensity decrease to various degrees, contributing to the realization of carbon intensity targets at different levels. However, even under the most ideal conditions the contribution potential rate is only 16.7%~17.8%. Therefore, the potential contribution of energy consumption structure optimization to carbon intensity targets in Hebei province is limited, which means that the goal of carbon intensity in Hebei province cannot be fully achieved only by optimizing the energy structure. We must rely on the combined efforts of the government, enterprises, and all sectors of society to take a series of measures in order to fully achieve the goal set in the “13th Five-Year Plan”of the province. |
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| Keywords: | energy structure scenario prediction carbon emission intensity contribution potential |
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