基于SPA-TOPSIS方法的能源结构优化程度评价

以能源低碳化发展为基础,从社会经济发展程度、能源规划合理程度、环境和谐程度三个准则层入手,构建能源结构优化程度评价指标体系。运用改进惯性权重的PSO算法确定评价体系权重,并基于SPA-TOPSIS法构建能源结构优化程度评价模型,对30个省、自治区、直辖市的区域能源结构优化程度进行实证研究。实证结果表明:区域社会经济发展水平对能源结构优化程度有直接影响,且各区域能源结构优化程度差异较大,总体呈现“东高西低”的格局;清洁能源消费占比、原煤消费占比、烟尘排放等因素对能源结构优化程度影响显著。

The Optimization Degree Evaluation of Energy Structure Base on the SPA-TOPSIS

The energy problem is not only related to political stability and social development, but also the basic impetus of economic growth. Energy structure plays an important role in regional low carbon economic development and environmental protection. The energy structure optimization in different regions of China is different. It is very important to analyze the causes of regional differences to improve the level of energy structure optimization in China. On the base of low-carbon energy development, this paper puts forward three dimensions, which are social and economic development, energy planning and environment. This study focuses on the factors of each dimension, constructs the evaluation index system of energy structure optimization degree, and evaluates the regional Energy structure optimization degree. The weight of the index is determined by using modified PSO algorithm. Based on the connectedness in the SPA method, the evaluation model of energy structure optimization using SPA-TOPSIS method is constructed. This paper builds the model to evaluate China’s 30 provinces and municipalities, and illustrates the rationality of the method. The empirical result shows that it is a good way to use ameliorated PSO algorithm to determine the weight of the energy structure optimization degree index. The proportion of clean energy consumption, the proportion of raw coal consumption and dust emission has a significant impact on the optimization of energy structure. The energy planning and environmental conditions have a significant impact on the evaluation of energy structure optimization degree. There are significant differences in energy structure optimization in different regions of China. The energy structure optimization of the East China is better than that of the West China.