时变参数系统的非完全分岔及其在Duffing方程中的应用

提出新的方法从本质上研究时变参数系统的非完全分岔问题。通过建立时变参数系统的解的线性近似定理去分析时变分岔方程运动的分岔转迁滞后和跃迁现象。利用Ｖ函数预测分岔转迁值,将新方法应用于Ｄｕｆｆｉｎｇ方程,获得一些新的分岔结果和关于解对初值和参数的敏感性结论。     

矩阵方程与滤波稳定性

<正> 引言线性系统最佳线性递推滤波(即卡尔曼滤波)的稳定性是滤波问题中比较重要的一个方面.有了稳定性,在使用卡尔曼滤波时,就不必在初值的选取上下很多功夫,因为经过适当长的时间以后,初值的影响就会逐渐消失.因此,从这种滤波方法出现时开始,稳定性就成为它的一个重要研究课题.     

内生性时变参数消费敏感度模型及应用——以天津市城镇居民消费为例

近些年来时变参数消费敏感度模型得到广泛应用,但其时变参数形式设置过于随意,内生性结构也没有得到足够的关注。本文建立了一个具有一般性的内生性时变参数消费敏感度模型,并构建了一个对两步卡尔曼滤波过程都适用的滤波理论方法,以处理模型的内生性结构。实证分析了天津市城镇居民的长期消费,该模型有效的处理了其内生性问题,且拟合效果很好,发现其消费敏感度是时变的,且经历了三个不同形成机理的规律性阶段.现阶段只有提高天津市城镇居民可支配收入,才能突破流动性约束的瓶颈,提高其消费需求。     

基于MCMC算法的时变Copula-GARCH-M-t模型及组合风险预测

为了准确地量化资产之间的时变相依结构和预测组合风险,本文考虑到投资者对资产风险偏好的差异,假设资产收益率序列的新息服从标准t分布,提出时变Copula-GARCH-M-t模型,推导了模型参数的两步MCMC估计方法,还得到了组合风险(VaR和CVaR)的一步预测方法。最后选取上证综合指数和标准普尔500指数,验证了所提模型及方法的可行性和优越性,同时该模型较为准确地量化了两指数在次贷危机后的时变相依结构特征。     

灰色Verhulst模型的改进及其应用

针对灰色Verhulst模型的不足,讨论了灰色Verhulst模型的参数优化问题.首先,利用最小二乘原理给出了一种初值优化的改进模型.其次,在平均相对误差最小准则下,将Verhulst模型的参数优化转化为线性规划问题,然后利用粒子群优化算法估计Verhulst模型中的参数,得到另外一种改进模型.最后,给出了一个仿真实例,结果表明灰色Verhulst模型的改进方法是可行的和有效的,而且具有较高的拟合和预测精度.     

一种新的求非线性方程组的数值延拓法

针对迭代过程中的Jacobi奇异问题,本文提出了一种新的数值延拓法.通过构造双参数同伦算子,采用可控条件和适当选取参数的方式克服Jacobi奇异性,并分析了方法的收敛性.最后,通过数值实验对比,验证了方法的可行性和优越性.特别是具有可调控越过Jacobi奇异(点、线、面)的优势,从而也在某种程度上解决了数值延拓法严重依赖于初值的问题.     

灰色系统模型的优化岭回归算法

文献[1]指出了目前用普通最小二乘法估计灰微分方程参数的方法由于方程组的病态问题很难求解得合理的参数;文献[2]指出了根据初值求解灰色系统模型的时间响应式的方法由于初值的误差使所求得时间响应式产生系统误差.为了克服灰色模型的上述两个缺点,本文设计了一种求解灰色系统模型的优化岭回归算法,计算一个广泛引用的算例演示了这种算法的优越性.     

自协方差非平稳时间序列的时变参数自回归模型

对一簇时间序列明确定义了自协方差非平稳时间序列.对于自协方差非平稳时间序列,提出了用于自协方差非平稳时间序列的3种时变参数自回归（TVPAR）模型：满阶TVPAR模型、非时变阶次TVPAR模型和时变阶次TVPAR模型.并进行了有关的最小赤池信息量准则（AIC）估计.     

时变高斯过程假设密度滤波算法

高斯过程是一种有效的数据驱动建模方法,已应用于解决时不变动态系统的状态估计问题.为了提升高斯过程动态系统的自适应能力,文章对参数时变的高斯过程动态系统,通过粒子滤波算法实时更新参数,将更新后的参数代入到高斯过程假设密度滤波算法得到时变高斯过程假设密度滤波算法.数值例子结果表明时变高斯过程假设密度算法的有效性.     

基于数据驱动方法的控制器设计及其参数整定

以一般离散时间非线性系统为研究对象,提出一类基于数据驱动的控制器设计及其参数整定方法.方法首先依据非参数时变动态线性化定理提出3种控制器结构,再采用迭代反馈整定方法(IFT)优化其控制器参数,从根本上解决了IFT方法给定控制器结构时存在的盲目性.最后将该方法与另外两种数据驱动控制方法---无模型自适应控制(MFAC)和IFT方法进行比较研究,结果表明方法是有效的.     

Online state of charge estimation of Li-ion battery based on an improved unscented Kalman filter approach

An improved unscented Kalman filter approach is proposed to enhance online state of charge estimation in terms of both accuracy and robustness. The goal is to address the drawback associated with the unscented Kalman filter in terms of its requirement for an accurate model and a priori noise statistics. Firstly, Li-ion battery modelling and offline parameter identification is performed. Secondly, a sensitivity analysis experiment is designed to verify which model parameter has the greatest influence on state of charge estimation accuracy, in order to provide an appropriate parameter for the model adaptive algorithm. Thirdly, an improved unscented Kalman filter approach, composed of a model adaptive algorithm and a noise adaptive algorithm, is introduced. Finally, the results are discussed, which reveal that the proposed approach’s estimation error is less than 1.79% with acceptable robustness and time complexity.     

地震动瞬时谱估计的UnscentedKalman滤波方法

用时变ARMA模型描述地震动时程,提出了采用Unscented Kalman滤波技术实现地震动瞬时谱估计的思路．算例分析表明,Unscented Kalman滤波方法较Kalman滤波方法适用范围广,具有较高的时间和频率分辨率,能够更好地跟踪地震动的局部特性,适合处理非线性模型或有突变特性的模型的辨识问题．不同阶数ARMA模型的估计结果还表明,以往被忽略的ARMA模型的理论频率分辨力对地震动瞬时谱估计精度有重要影响,应作为一个参考指标在ARMA模型的判阶中加以考虑．     

Recursive state and parameter estimation with applications in water resources

Hydrologic models, as well as measurements of hydrologic processes, are corrupted by noise. The Kalman filter is a convenient tool to estimate the true but unknown state of a hydrologic system. It is, however, difficult to specify the necessary error covariances. A procedure is proposed to estimate the error covariances recursively in a combined state and parameter filter. Applications of the procedure yield meaningful results for two hydrologic data series of very different character. A major benefit of the proposed algorithm seems to be its robustness against instability.     

State of charge estimation for lithium-ion batteries based on adaptive dual Kalman filter

Accurate estimation of the battery state of charge (SOC) is of great significance for enhancing its service life and safety. In this study, based on the fractional-order equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion battery, the SOC estimation methods using dual Kalman filter (DKF) and dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) are simulated and compared, in terms of model accuracy and SOC estimation accuracy. Then, combining the advantages of the DKF and DEKF algorithms, an SOC estimation algorithm based on adaptive double Kalman filter is proposed. This algorithm uses the recursive least squares (RLS) method to update the battery model parameters online in real time, and employs the DKF algorithm to filter the SOC twice to reduce the interferences from the battery model error and the current measurement error. In the experimental studies, the measured SOC values are compared with the estimated SOC values produced by the proposed algorithm. The comparison results show that SOC estimation error of the proposed algorithm is within the range of ±0.01 under most test conditions, and it can automatically correct SOC to true value in the presence of system errors. Thus, the validity, accuracy, robustness and adaptability of the proposed algorithm under different operation conditions are verified.     

基于粒子滤波算法的航迹误差分析

当前针对飞行预测的研究主要采用的是kalman算法,在解决非线性问题时存在着只能近似线性的而不够精确的问题.采用近年来受到广泛关注的粒子滤波算法,针对RNAV航路进行分析,结论中得到了对飞行误差仿真分析并对比了卡尔曼滤波仿真效果,证实了粒子滤波在航迹预测中更好的准确性.     

Estimation of Lévy Processes via Stochastic Programming and Kalman Filtering

The estimation of Lévy process has received a lot of attention in recent years. Evidence of this is the extensive amount of literature concerning this problem which can be classified in two categories: the nonparametric approach, and the parametric approach. In this paper, we shall concentrate on the latter, and in particular the parameters will be estimated within a stochastic programming framework. To be more specific, the first derivative of the characteristic function and its empirical version shall be used in objective function. Furthermore, the parameter estimates are recursively estimated by making use of a modified extended Kalman filter (MEKF). Some properties of the parameter estimates are studied. Finally, a number of simulations will be carried out and the results are presented and discussed.     

Partitioned state and parameter estimation for real-time flood forecasting

A new algorithm is developed for simultaneous state-parameter estimation in real-time flood-forecasting applications. Dubbed the partitioned state-parameter (PSP) algorithm, is it unusual in the way that the parameter filter is formulated explicitly in terms of the identifiable parameters in the transition and input coefficient matrices. By virtue of its parallel filter structure the algorithm is very fast, yet it has been designed so that essential error interactions between the forecasting and parameter filters are preserved. Furthermore, PSP is structured so that input coefficients are only updated when the corresponding inputs are actually applied. This feature is useful for systems subject to sporadic inputs. The algorithm is tested with real and synthesized daily rainfall-runoff data from the Hillsborough River in Florida. PSP is found to produce good forecasts and parameter estimates and is much faster than the extended Kalman filter.     

A data assimilation process for linear ill‐posed problems

In this paper, an iteration process is considered to solve linear ill‐posed problems. Based on the randomness of the involved variables, this kind of problems is regarded as simulation problems of the posterior distribution of the unknown variable given the noise data. We construct a new ensemble Kalman filter‐based method to seek the posterior target distribution. Despite the ensemble Kalman filter method having widespread applications, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties, especially in the field of inverse problems. This paper analyzes the propagation of the error with the iteration step for the proposed algorithm. The theoretical analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is convergence. We compare the numerical effect with the Bayesian inversion approach by two numerical examples: backward heat conduction problem and the first kind of integral equation. The numerical tests show that the proposed algorithm is effective and competitive with the Bayesian method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leakage detection and location in gas pipelines through an LPV identification approach

A new approach to gas leakage detection in high pressure distribution networks is proposed, where two leakage detectors are modelled as a linear parameter varying (LPV) system whose scheduling signals are, respectively, intake and offtake pressures. Running the two detectors simultaneously allows for leakage location. First, the pipeline is identified from operational data, supplied by REN-Gasodutos and using an LPV systems identification algorithm proposed in [1]. Each leakage detector uses two Kalman filters where the fault is viewed as an augmented state. The first filter estimates the flow using a calculated scheduling signal, assuming that there is no leakage. Therefore it works as a reference. The second one uses a measured scheduling signal and the augmented state is compared with the reference value. Whenever there is a significant difference, a leakage is detected. The effectiveness of this method is illustrated with an example where a mixture of real and simulated data is used.     

On the fractional-order extended Kalman filter and its application to chaotic cryptography in noisy environment

In this paper via a novel method of discretized continuous-time Kalman filter, the problem of synchronization and cryptography in fractional-order systems has been investigated in presence of noisy environment for process and output signals. The fractional-order Kalman filter equation, applicable for linear systems, and its extension called the extended Kalman filter, which can be used for nonlinear systems, are derived. The result is utilized for chaos synchronization with the aim of cryptography while the transmitter system is fractional-order, and both the transmitter and transmission channel are noisy. The fractional-order stochastic chaotic Chen system is then presented to apply the proposed method for chaotic signal cryptography. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.