我国住房抵押贷款提前还款影响因素分析

提前还款问题是住房抵押贷款证券要解决的一个基本问题.在介绍国外有关提前还款行为影响因素的基础上,针对我国的具体情况,用灰色关联法分析我国提前还款行为的影响因素.     

考虑预付定金和退货的SMPEs产品定价与优化策略

借鉴中小制造型企业(SMPEs)在线渠道预售模式,考虑市场中存在预付订金和不预付订金的顾客,并将其退货情况引入到生产商利润表达式中,构建确定性和随机性市场需求下的SMPEs产品销售利润最大化模型,推导生产商产品最优定价的解析解;对比两种销售模式的利润,得到了生产商选择不同销售策略的条件。进一步考虑预付定金的产品数量、预交定金比例、退货数量是关于价格折扣敏感的情况,采用拉格朗日乘子法对生产商产品定价及优化问题进行研究,分析求得生产商销售策略(产品定价和价格折扣)的近似最优解。最后,通过数值算例对研究结论进行了验证并给出经济学解释。     

Optimal replenishment time for retailer under partial upstream prepayment and partial downstream overdue payment for quadratic demand

In competitive edge, the proffer of delay payment is of great consequence tool to boost the market demand by exerting influence of more customers. In opposition to, merchandiser may be asked to pay some per cent of purchasing cost before receiving products to reduce the risk of cancellation of order. In this article, optimal replenishment time for merchandiser under partial upstream prepayment and partial downstream overdue payment is presented under quadratic demand with three different models: (1) without deterioration, (2) with constant deterioration and (3) maximum fixed-lifetime deterioration as loss of utility is the real situation of products like fruits, vegetables, juices, etc., and to reduce deterioration of the product, merchandiser spends capital on preservation technology to preserve the item. Quadratic demand is suitable for the products for which demand increases initially and afterward it starts to decrease. The decision policies are analysed for the merchandiser. The objective is to minimize merchandiser’s total cost with respect to decision variables. The models are supported with numerical examples. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to derive insights for decision maker.     

住房抵押贷款的比例提前偿付模型

住房抵押贷款证券化定价的难点之一 ,就是由于提前偿付行为的存在 ,使得未来现金的流量难以确定。本文介绍了比例模型在提前偿付中的运用 ,同时提出了运用威布尔分布比例模型来建立提前偿付模型的观点 ,并得到了比较好的拟合结果     

Embedded options in commercial banking and their impact on asset liability management

Commercial bankers sell—more often give away—options to their clients like the prepayment facility attached to a mortgage or the right to obtain a credit at a prespecified interest rate which is associated in France with specific term deposits. This paper aims to present the financial consequences of these options from a microeconomic point of view and on the scale of the French banking system. We first example our valuation techniques and then analyse the impact on the balance sheet of a typical commercial bank, both in terms of value and sensitivity. Securitization is presented in this context as a way to monitor risk exposure. Finally the global impact of these embedded options in the French banking system is estimated and briefly discussed.     

Modeling credit portfolio derivatives,including both a default and a prepayment feature

Apart from heteronomy exit events such as, for example credit default or death, several financial agreements allow policy holders to voluntarily terminate the contract. Examples include callable mortgages or life insurance contracts. For the contractual counterpart, the result is a cash‐flow uncertainty called prepayment risk. Despite the high relevance of this implicit option, only few portfolio models consider both a default and a cancellability feature. On a portfolio level, this is especially critical because empirical observations of the mortgage market suggest that prepayment risk is an important determinant for the pricing of mortgage‐backed securities. Furthermore, defaults and prepayments tend to occur in clusters, and there is evidence for a negative association between the two risks. This paper presents a realistic and tractable portfolio model that takes into account these observations. Technically, we rely on an Archimedean dependence structure. A suitable parameterization allows to fit the likelihood of default and prepayment clusters separately and accounts for the postulated negative interdependence. Moreover, this structure turns out to be tractable enough for real‐time evaluation of portfolio derivatives. As an application, the pricing of loan credit default swaps, an example of a portfolio derivative that includes a cancellability feature, is discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

固定支付利率抵押贷款定价的一般原理

利用期权定价理论,固定支付利率抵押贷款定价问题可以模型为一个自由边界问题或变分不等式方程．该文用偏微分方程理论证明了抵押贷款价格受一些因素影响的结果,并通过具体计算实例说明了抵押贷款的风险特性．     

按揭支付的单调性分析

考虑了基于随机提前偿付的按揭支付的期望收入或损失的分析模型,模型具有和提前偿付的概率分布无关的一些单调特性,揭示了潜在的异于传统的按揭风险控制思路,可以支持新颖支付模式的研发,并构成按揭风险治理的有力补充.