Development of models for prediction of the antioxidant activity of derivatives of natural compounds

Antioxidants are important for maintaining the appropriate balance between oxidizing and reducing species in the body and thus preventing oxidative stress. Many natural compounds are being screened for their possible antioxidant activity. It was found that a mushroom pigment Norbadione A, which is a pulvinic acid derivative, shows an antioxidant activity; the same was found for other pulvinic acid derivatives and structurally related coumarines. Based on the results of in vitro studies performed on these compounds as a part of this study quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) predictive models were constructed using multiple linear regression, counter-propagation artificial neural networks and support vector regression (SVR). The models have been developed in accordance with current QSAR guidelines, including the assessment of the models applicability domains. A new approach for the graphical evaluation of the applicability domain for SVR models is suggested. The developed models show sufficient predictive abilities for the screening of virtual libraries for new potential antioxidants.     

Rainfall forecasting by technological machine learning models

Accurate forecasting of rainfall has been one of the most important issues in hydrological research. Due to rainfall forecasting involves a rather complex nonlinear data pattern; there are lots of novel forecasting approaches to improve the forecasting accuracy. Recurrent artificial neural networks (RNNS) have played a crucial role in forecasting rainfall data. Meanwhile, support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. This investigation elucidates the feasibility of hybrid model of RNNs and SVMs, namely RSVR, to forecast rainfall depth values. Moreover, chaotic particle swarm optimization algorithm (CPSO) is employed to choose the parameters of a SVR model. Subsequently, example of rainfall values during typhoon periods from Northern Taiwan is used to illustrate the proposed RSVRCPSO model. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model yields well forecasting performance, RSVRCPSO model provides a promising alternative for forecasting rainfall values.     

基于高斯回归分析的水稻氮素敏感波段筛选及含量估算

水稻氮素含量的准确监测是稻田精准施肥的重要环节,水稻叶片氮素含量发生变化会引起叶片、冠层的光谱发射率发生变化,高光谱遥感是目前作物氮素无损监测的关键技术之一。以2018年-2019年湖北监利两年水稻氮肥试验为基础,分别获取水稻分蘖期、拔节期、孕穗期、扬花期、灌浆期五个生育期水稻叶片和冠层两个尺度的高光谱反射率数据及对应的叶片氮素含量数据,利用单波段原始光谱和一阶导数光谱的相关性分析、高斯过程回归（GPR）等方法筛选水稻全生育期叶片及冠层尺度氮素敏感波段。针对敏感波段,利用单波段回归分析、随机森林（RF）、支持向量回归（SVR）、高斯过程回归-随机森林（GPR-RF）、高斯过程回归-支持向量回归（GPR-SVR）和GPR构建水稻氮素监测模型,并进行精度对比,以确定水稻叶片在各生育期的氮素估算最佳模型。结果表明：GPR筛选的敏感波段符合水稻氮素含量及光谱变化的规律。相同条件下,叶片模型精度整体高于冠层模型。相关性分析模型中,叶片尺度原始光谱模型更好,冠层尺度刚好相反,冠层一阶导数光谱可以减弱稻田背景噪声的影响。其中,叶片最佳模型建模集R2为0.79,验证集R2为0.84;冠层最佳模型建模集R2为0.80,验证集R2为0.77。与相关性回归分析模型相比,机器学习模型受生育期影响小（R2>0.80,NRMSE<10%）。其中,RF比SVR更适合对GPR敏感波段建模,GPR-RF模型可以用1.5%左右的波段达到RF模型使用全部波段的精度。五种方法中,GPR模型对生育期敏感度最低、叶片及冠层尺度效果都很好(R2>0.94,NRMSE<6%)。且与其他四种机器学习方法相比,GPR模型可有效提高冠层氮素含量估算的精度和稳定性（R2增加0.02,NRMSE降低1.2%）。GPR方法可为筛选作物氮素高光谱敏感波段、反演各生育期叶片及冠层氮素含量提供方法参考。     

几种新的回归诊断图示模型及其医学应用

本文在变量选择问题的基础上，提出了一种新的图示模型──减变残差图。并给出它的两种推广形式：均值平移异常值检验图和部分影响诊断图。通过它们不但可以容易地考察一个变量在模型中的作用和检验异常值，而且可以诊断样本点对模型和变量的影响大小。     

Estimation of source spectra profiles and simultaneous determination of polycomponent in mixtures from ultraviolet spectra data using kernel independent component analysis and support vector regression

A method that use kernel independent component analysis (KICA) and support vector regression (SVR) was proposed for estimation of source ultraviolet (UV) spectra profiles and simultaneous determination of polycomponents in mixtures. In KICA-SVR procedure, the UV source spectra profiles were estimated using KICA, then the mixing matrix of the components were calculated using the estimated sources, and the calibration model was build using SVR based on the calculated mixing matrix. A simulated UV dataset of three-component mixtures was used to test the ability of KICA for estimating source spectra profiles from spectra data of mixtures. It was found that KICA has the potential power to estimate pure UV spectra profiles, and correlation coefficient of estimated sources correspond to the real adopted ones are better compared with that by FastICA and Infomax ICA. An UV dataset of polycomponent vitamin B was processed using the proposed KICA-SVR method. The results show that the estimated source spectra profiles are correlative with the real UV spectra of the components and chemically interpretable, and accurate results were obtained.     

基于Adaboost-SVR模型的我国碳排放强度分析与预测

首先对我国1960-2017年的碳排放趋势分5个阶段分析,发现虽然在不同时期存在波动,但长期来看,我国碳排放强度呈逐步下降趋势.然后对差分平稳后的序列数据建立Adaboost-SVR预测模型,采用RMSE、MAPE、MAE、MSE四个评价指标比较Adaboost-SVR模型与Adaboost-DT、SVR、BP神经网络对碳排放强度的预测精度.结果表明,组合模型明显优于其他3种模型,对于碳排放强度预测具有很高的可靠性.另外,通过使用Adaboost-SVR模型进行后续年份预测,发现我国未来碳排放强度总体将继续缓慢下降.最后,基于二氧化碳排放量的LMID分解结果,提出调整能源产业结构, 促进可再生能源利用等节能减排建议.     

基于离散傅立叶变换的支持向量机光谱定量分析法

研究了火电厂电煤煤粉的近红外光谱特征,提取了前3个主成分和前6个离散傅立叶变换(DFT)系数,结合主成分得分、马氏距离和偏最小二乘(PLS)交互验证方法剔除异常样本,并建立偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、栅格支持向量机回归(G-SVR)、遗传算法支持向量机回归(GA-SVR)和粒子群算法支持向量机回归(PSO-SVR)等定量分析模型。结果表明,利用DFT系数作为PSO-SVR模型的输入变量,当其进化代数为300,种群规模为20,模型参数c1、c2为1.5,1.7时,性能最优,其中校正集相关系数(RC)为0.990,测试集相关系数(RP)为0.954,定标标准差(SEC)为0.366,测试标准差(SEP)为0.128。该方法准确可靠,已成功应用于近红外在线电煤发热量监测系统,并可推广用于其它较为复杂的近红外在线分析系统。     

基于ANP-SVR的高校新专业设置优化分析

随着新专业的设置问题越来越多地成为各个高校普遍面对的发展问题,人们逐渐意识到决策过程中的滞后性、盲目性、片面性问题给专业设置工作乃至于该专业的生命力和竞争力带来的负面影响.运用ANP-SVR算法深入分析了高校新专业设置过程中的主要问题及其内部包含的各种因素,利用10个专业进行建模分析,并利用SVR,算法对3个拟建专业进行回归分析,得到了理想结果.方法将主观决策数字化,为高校的决策者提供了一种解决问题的新方法.