Developing models of decision making

Studies that focus on the decision making process can be classified in (at least) two ways: by psychological content and by contextual content. The first describes the degree to which the analysis focuses on the mental processes associated with decision making and the second deals with the degree to which the analysis is dependent upon the study's context. Several studies are examined in terms of where they fall in this two-dimensional taxonomy. Two analyses of maritime command and control conducted by the authors are examined more fully within this taxonomy. Both are context full, but are at opposite ends of the psychological content spectrum. These categorizations are useful in focusing future research aimed at developing models of decision making.     

Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study

In previous work, we considered the representation of human decision-making processes in closed-form simulation models of conflict. An important element of this representation is the rapid planning process that embodies the processing of information for situation assessment to support a course of action decision (eg in a military headquarters). The application of this work is in support of operational analysis models for defence procurement and balance of investment. This paper describes the application of non-linear multi-attribute utility theory in conflict scenarios in order to extend the representation of the rapid planning process to account for a wider set of subjective attributes of the decision-maker. The results show, through examination of experimental data, that decision-making can be modelled through a particular class of utility functions. These utilities embody a geometry which allows us to classify the types of decision being made when there are conflicting objectives and when decision-makers adopt very different and subjective appraisals of constraints and beliefs in outcome. The experimental results help to demonstrate that the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training, experience and history of the decision-maker are central to the functional representations. This paper presents a way to capture this deeper representation of human decision-making in a way that is potentially useful for quantitative modelling using the rapid planning process as a basis.     

The transfer between instruments of a reflectance near-infrared assay for paracetamol in intact tablets

This study compares several correction methods to facilitate the transfer of a validated near-infrared (NIR) assay for paracetamol in intact tablets between two reflectance NIR instruments of the same type. Transfer was defined as the ability to accurately predict the true assay value of a sample measured on a NIR system using an assay developed on a different system, and was assessed using a comprehensive set of statistical tests. Direct electronic transfer of the calibration models, representing the NIR assay, was not possible as a result of a definite residual spectrum between instruments. The use of a correction method based on the standardisation of the material used to record the reference spectrum also proved ineffective. Two methods investigated did succeed, the first employed a response surface calculated between the reflectance values of a set of six certified photometric standards measured on both instruments, with all full range partial least square (PLS) regression models subsequently transferred. The next was correction of the spectra from the second instrument utilising the residual spectrum between the mean sample of the validation set measured on both instruments. Through this approach all PLS regression models and also a single multiple linear regression (MLR) model were transferred. As an outcome of this study guidelines are suggested for the transfer of NIR assays along with the criteria deemed necessary to conclusively prove transfer and justify any correction method utilised. The significant criteria were determined to be the paired t-test with both the UV reference assay data and the original NIR assay data, and comparison of the coefficient of multiple determinations.     

Non-invasive determination of ethanol, propylene glycol and water in a multi-component pharmaceutical oral liquid by direct measurement through amber plastic bottles using Fourier transform near-infrared spectroscopy

Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy was used to quantify rapidly the ethanol (34-49% v/v), propylene glycol (20-35% v/v) and water (11-20% m/m) contents within a multi-component pharmaceutical oral liquid by measurement directly through the amber plastic bottle packaging. Spectra were collected in the range 7302-12,000 cm-1 and calibration models set-up using partial least-squares regression (PLSR) and multiple linear regression. Reference values for the three components were measured using capillary gas chromatography (ethanol and propylene glycol) and Karl Fischer (water) assay procedures. The calibration and test sets consisted of production as well as laboratory batches that were made to extend the concentration ranges beyond the natural production variation. The PLSR models developed gave standard errors of prediction (SEP) of 1.1% v/v for ethanol, 0.9% v/v for propylene glycol and 0.3% m/m for water. For each component the calibration model was validated in terms of: linearity, repeatability, intermediate precision and robustness. All the methods produced statistically favourable outcomes. Ten production batches independent of the calibration and test sets were also challenged against the PLSR models, giving SEP values of 1.3% v/v (ethanol), 1.0% v/v (propylene glycol) and 0.2% m/m (water). NIR transmission spectroscopy allowed all three liquid constituents to be non-invasively measured in under 1 min.     

Computer-aided multichannel detection in high-performance liquid chromatography

Summary The development of a computer-aided rapid-scanning detector for HPLC based on the linear photodiode array UV-visible spectrophotometer is described. Chomatograms monitored at up to three wavelengths, with automatic capture of spectra for eluted peaks and post-run processing of spectral data to generate log₁₀ (A) spectra, second derivative and fourth derivative spectra, are described. Methods are reported for the analysis of forensic samples of diacetylmorphine (heroin) in the presence of the degradation products and potential contaminants caffeine, papaverine, 6-acetylcodeine, thebaine, 6-acetyl-morphine, procaine and morphine separated by HPLC. The novel use of second and higher derivative spectra for the qualitative characterisation of drugs and contaminants separated by HPLC is described.Presented at the 14th International Symposium on Chromatography London, September, 1982     

The LOV2 domain of phototropin: a reversible photochromic switch

Light, oxygen, or voltage (LOV) domains constitute a new class of photoreceptor proteins that are sensitive to blue light through a noncovalently bound flavin chromophore. Blue-light absorption by the LOV2 domain initiates a photochemical reaction that results in formation of a long-lived covalent adduct between a cysteine and the flavin cofactor. We have applied ultrafast spectroscopy on the photoaccumulated covalent adduct state of LOV2 and find that, upon absorption of a near-UV photon by the adduct state, the covalent bond between the flavin and the cysteine is broken and the blue-light-sensitive ground state is regained on an ultrafast time scale of 100 ps. We thus demonstrate that the LOV2 domain is a reversible photochromic switch, which can be activated by blue light and deactivated by near-UV light.     

Cyanide–Isocyanide isomerization in the structural isomers of cyanogen isocyanate

The cyanide-isocyanide isomerization has been studied with ab initio calculations in an STO -3G basis as applied to NCNCO, NCCNO, NCOCN, and NCONC, and the corresponding isocyanides. Geometry optimization has been performed on these cyanides, their isocyanides, and their hypothetical transition states. The energies of isomerization were calculated to be 42.2, 29.8, 44.6, and 41.4 kcal/mol, respectively, while the energy barriers were found as 84.3, 67.5, 107.9, and 106.8 kcal/mol. Overlap populations and atomic charges were employed to provide simple correlations of the results.     

Bond indices and heats of formation of some nitriles

The definition of bond index introduced by Ehrenson, and written in terms of bond order and overlap integrals, has been applied to a series of nitriles. A good correlation between heats of formation and a linear equation in the indices for each bond present is obtained. This was extended to include the results for a set of hydrocarbons.     

High-pressure liquid chromatography of drugs: II. An evaluation of a microparticulate cation-exchange column

A microparticulate cation-exchange column has been evaluated for the chromatography of thirty compounds selected as representative of a wide variety of drug substances. Although the column exhibited a strong partition effect besides the expected ion-exchange mechanism, the retention of drugs could be predictably influenced by variation of the eluent ionic strength and organic solvent content.

For acidic drugs the column showed little selectivity (although a salting-out effect increased retention at high eluent ionic strengths), but for basic substances Partisil SCX may afford a useful separative medium offering reasonable chromatographic efficiency (HETP ≈ 0.1 mm). The column longevity, however, is at present questionable.