基于连续用电量和缴费时间差的客户信用动态评价模型

加大供电量和提高电费回收效率是供电商增加收益的主要途径,并且用电客户的缴费时间差直接影响着电费回收效率。在用电客户信息较少的情况下,仅仅依赖用电客户的用电量信息和缴费时间差信息,采用扩展的“S型”函数对用电量信息和缴费时间差信息进行整合建模,构建了一个能够度量客户持续用电能力和缴纳电费积极性的客户信用动态评价模型。应用构建的模型对赤峰市宁城县实际用电客户进行信用评价,评价结果与领域专家评价结果具有较高的一致性。     

基于集对分析联系数的区间数型多属性决策投影模型及其在基坑支护方案评价中的应用

多属性决策时因掌握的信息有限,加之问题本身的复杂性、不确定性以及人类思维的模糊性,其属性的精确值往往难以获取,常用区间数形式表示针对多属性决策中各指标区间数不能直接进行大小比较的问题,提出一种基于集对分析联系数的区间数型多属性决策投影模型.模型用备择方案在理想方案上的投影进行集结,根据区间数的误差分布形式,沟通区间数与联系数的关系,根据a+bi型联系数大小比较法则,综合评价方案优劣.以某大厦基坑支护拟用的4种方案优化选择为例,说明方法的应用与模糊优化理论模型和灰色物元分析优化模型进行了对比,得到的结果一致.     

基于区间直觉模糊不确定语言的中小企业电子商务网站建设决策方法研究

阐述中小企业在整个国民经济中的重要地位,指出电子商务对于中小企业具有天然的适应性和可行的推广性.揭示研究对象中蕴含着广泛的模糊性,应用区间直觉模糊不确定语言的必要性.介绍区间直觉模糊不确定语言的基本概念、基本运算、算术平均和加权平均、距离、期望函数、精度函数、期望函数值、精度函数值以及对象比较方法等内容.提出区间直觉模糊不确定语言决策步骤:设定方案集、指标集、专家集,确定评判矩阵,确定指标权重,计算加权平均,计算期望函数、精度函数,期望函数值、精度函数值,进行排序.以盛东商贸有限公司电子商务网站设计方案测评为例,碍出方案3优于方案2优于方案5优于方案1优于方案4的结论.     

基于白化值的区间DEA建模

传统数据包络分析要求输入输出数据为精确数,然而在某些实际应用中,区间形式的数据相较于精确数更容易获得.将区间数转化为白化值,并基于传统C~2R模型提出了基于白化值的区间C~2R模型.考虑到决策单元的有效性不易通过基于白化值的区间C~2R模型来判断,因此将非阿基米德无穷小概念引入到上述模型,构建了具有非阿基米德无穷小的区间C~2R模型.此外,还给出了用于判断决策单元有效性的区间目标规划方法:分别通过G_(IC~2R)模型和WG_(IC~2R)模型判断决策单元是否为区间DEA有效与区间弱DEA有效.     

白骨化尸体死亡时间的推断

本文分析了15具白骨化尸体标本的股骨汞(Hg),铅(Pb),镉(Cd)元素含量数据,在三年的时间内采集了3次,一共收集到45个数据。首先将这组数据看着纵向数据,利用线性随机效应混合模型、Cox随机混合效应模型进行分析,结果显示,如果对每个白骨化尸体标本建立线性模型,可以精确预测出死亡时间,而且不需要采集铅元素含量数据。混合效应模型的预测效果也很好,最大误差不会超过1个月。其次我们对数据不作任何假设,利用机器学习中随机森林方法分析数据,并利用5折交叉验证方法来判断结果的可靠性,训练集和测试集的NMSE分别为0.1205944,0.5604286,因此可以用训练出的模型来预测死亡时间。     

Characterization of Chickpea Flour by Near Infrared Spectroscopy and Chemometrics

Near infrared (NIR) spectrometry was used for the rapid characterization of quality parameters in desi chickpea flour (besan). Partial least square regression, principal component regression (PCR), interval partial least squares (iPLS), and synergy interval partial least squares (siPLS) were used to determine the protein, carbohydrate, fat, and moisture concentrations of besan. Spectra were collected in reflectance mode using a lab-built predispersive filter-based instrument from 700 to 2500?nm. The quality parameters were also determined by standard methods. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the calibration and validation sets was used to evaluate the performance of the models. The correlation coefficients for moisture, fat, protein, and carbohydrates in chickpea flour exceeded 0.96 using PLS and PCR models using the full spectral range. Wavelengths from 2100 to 2345?nm had the lowest RMSE for quality parameters by iPLS. The error was further decreased by 0.41, 0.1, and 1.1% for carbohydrates, fats, and proteins by siPLS. The NIR spectral regions yielding the lowest RMSE of prediction were 1620–2345?nm for carbohydrates, 1180–1590?nm and 1860–2094?nm for fat, and 1700–2345?nm for proteins. The study shows that chickpea flour quality parameters were accurately determined using the optimized wavelengths.     

The valuation of life contingencies: A symmetrical triangular fuzzy approximation

This paper extends the framework for the valuation of life insurance policies and annuities by Andrés-Sánchez and González-Vila (2012, 2014) in two ways. First we allow various uncertain magnitudes to be estimated by means of fuzzy numbers. This applies not only to interest rates but also to the amounts to be paid out by the insurance company. Second, the use of symmetrical triangular fuzzy numbers allows us to obtain expressions for the pricing of life contingencies and their variability that are closely linked to standard financial and actuarial mathematics. Moreover, they are relatively straightforward to compute and understand from a standard actuarial point of view.     

Two optimization problems in linear regression with interval data

We consider a linear regression model where neither regressors nor the dependent variable is observable; only intervals are available which are assumed to cover the unobservable data points. Our task is to compute tight bounds for the residual errors of minimum-norm estimators of regression parameters with various norms (corresponding to least absolute deviations (LAD), ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS) and Chebyshev approximation). The computation of the error bounds can be formulated as a pair of max–min and min–min box-constrained optimization problems. We give a detailed complexity-theoretic analysis of them. First, we prove that they are NP-hard in general. Then, further analysis explains the sources of NP-hardness. We investigate three restrictions when the problem is solvable in polynomial time: the case when the parameter space is known apriori to be restricted into a particular orthant, the case when the regression model has a fixed number of regression parameters, and the case when only the dependent variable is observed with errors. We propose a method, called orthant decomposition of the parameter space, which is the main tool for obtaining polynomial-time computability results.     

Cauchy problems for Hilfer fractional evolution equations on an infinite interval

It is well known that the classical Ascoli-Arzelà theorem is powerful technique to give a necessary and sufficient condition for investigating the relative compactness of a family of abstract continuous functions, while it is limited to finite compact interval. In this paper, we shall generalize the Ascoli-Arzelà theorem on an infinite interval. As its application, we investigate an initial value problem for fractional evolution equations on infinite interval in the sense of Hilfer type, which is a generalization of both Riemann-Liuoville and Caputo fractional derivatives. Our methods are based on the Hausdorff theorem, classical/generalized Ascoli-Arzelà theorem, Schauder fixed point theorem, Wright function, and Kuratowski measure of noncompactness. We obtain the existence of mild solutions on an infinite interval when the semigroup is compact as well as noncompact.