Signed graphs for portfolio analysis in risk management

We introduce the notion of structural balance for signed graphsin the context of portfolio analysis. A portfolio of securitiescan be represented as a signed graph with the nodes denotingthe securities and the edges representing the correlation betweenthe securities. With signed graphs, the characteristics of aportfolio from a risk management perspective can be uncoveredfor analysis purposes. It is shown that a portfolio characterizedby a signed graph of positive and negative edges that is structurallybalanced is characteristically more predictable. Investors whoundertake a portfolio position with all positively correlatedsecurities do so with the intention to speculate on the upside(or downside). If the portfolio consists of negative edges andis balanced, then it is likely that the position has a hedgingdisposition within it. On the other hand, an unbalanced signedgraph is representative of an investment portfolio which ischaracteristically unpredictable.     

Smooth Solutions to Optimal Investment Models with Stochastic Volatilities and Portfolio Constraints

   Abstract. This paper deals with an extension of Merton's optimal investment problem to a multidimensional model with stochastic volatility and portfolio constraints. The classical dynamic programming approach leads to a characterization of the value function as a viscosity solution of the highly nonlinear associated Bellman equation. A logarithmic transformation expresses the value function in terms of the solution to a semilinear parabolic equation with quadratic growth on the derivative term. Using a stochastic control representation and some approximations, we prove the existence of a smooth solution to this semilinear equation. An optimal portfolio is shown to exist, and is expressed in terms of the classical solution to this semilinear equation. This reduction is useful for studying numerical schemes for both the value function and the optimal portfolio. We illustrate our results with several examples of stochastic volatility models popular in the financial literature.     

最优保存遗传算法在最优资产组合计算中的应用

本文基文献 [1]的思路 ,详细论述了利用遗传算法解决有风险控制的最优资产组合问题的具体实现过程 .并论证了用浮点数的方法表示的最优保存遗传算法的全局收敛性     

可再生能源配额制与碳排放权交易并行实施的政策效果

中国将同时实施可再生能源配额制与碳排放权交易,并以售电商为配额制的考核主体。本文建立两级供应链模型分析两者相互作用的政策效果。研究结果表明,引入碳排放权交易将导致火电价格上涨与可再生能源电力价格下降,有利于实现两者在同一价格水平竞争。然而,碳排放权交易亦将造成零售电价上涨,电力需求减少,且变化幅度与碳排放权价格和减排成本成正比。若配额比例与售电商差异性提高,在不影响环境成本内化于火电批发价格的同时,可降低售电商的转嫁成本。从而减小了可再生能源电力价格降幅与零售电价涨幅,并平抑碳排放权价格与减排成本上涨造成的电价与需求波动。     

债券投资组合业绩归因的多期实证研究

目前国内对投资组合的业绩归因研究主要从管理者层面着手,将超额收益的来源归结为择时能力和选股能力,但这并不适用于债券投资。本文基于Campisi模型,对债券定价公式进行分解,从债券自身的特性来研究组合的超额收益来源,并结合GRAP跨期处理方法,形成多期业绩归因模型,对长期债券投资组合进行归因分析。相对于单期的归因模型,多期归因模型可以对任意一段时间内投资组合的超额收益进行归因,而不是单期归因项的简单加总。本文以中证全债指数为基准组合,对32只债券构成的投资组合进行实证研究,结果表明模型符合市场情况和实际操作情况。因此本文提出的多期业绩归因研究具有实用性。     

Optimal pricing for a heterogeneous portfolio for a given risk factor and convex distance measure

Consider a portfolio containing heterogeneous risks. The premiums of the policyholders might not cover the amount of the payments which an insurance company pays the policyholders. When setting the premium, this risk has to be taken into consideration. On the other hand the premium that the insured pays has to be fair. This fairness is measured by a function of the difference between the risk and the premium paid—we call this function a distance function. For a given small probability of insolvency, we find the premium for each class, such that the distance function is minimized. Next we formulate and solve the dual problem, which is minimizing the insolvency probability under the constraint that the distance function does not exceed a given level. This paper generalizes a previous paper [Zaks, Y., Frostig, E., Levikson, B., 2006. Optimal pricing of a heterogeneous portfolio for a given risk level. Astin Bull. 36 (1), 161–185] where only a square distance function was considered.     

投资组合保险CPPI策略研究

随着期权理论应用的发展,投资组合保险在国外已成为一种盛行的资产配置策略, 常数比例投资组合保险策略(CPPI)以其模型简单、参数的设置又能充分反映投资人不同的风险偏好、而且易于实施,成为大型安全型基金的基金经理首选的投资策略.本文研究并推广了CPPI策略,找出CPPI与期权的关系,讨论了借贷限制对(CPPI策略的影响,最后对CPPI策略在中国市场的可投资性进行了评测.     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

马科维兹资产组合选择模型的旋转算法

提出线性不等式组的一种旋转算法，并用其求解马科维兹资产组合选择模型，此算法每次迭代约需n^2次乘法和加法，其中n是模型中变量的数目，在微机上运行Delphi程序的实验结果表明，从上海和深圳股市1072支股票70期周末收盘价计算出20个最优投资组合仅需314次迭代和45s。     

带有风险回避的最优消费模型研究

本文在文献[1]和[2]的基础上,把模型参数推广为时间t的变量,折扣因子β(t)为[0,T]上的有界可测函数,通过计算得出带有风险回避的最优消费条件和投资公式.