用自回归模型预测中国股市未来现金股利水平

对中国股市1996年以后所发放的现金股利的分布规律进行了研究,发现中国股市现金股利增量时间序列近似符合平稳过程。在此基础上探讨了利用线性模型技术的自回归(AR)模型对未来股利水平进行预测的一些技术问题,然后运用蒙特卡罗技术对现金股利增量进行了模拟试验,产生了足够多的数据并得出了拟合预报方程。最后对未来四十年中国股市现金股利的发放水平进行了预测。     

部分信息情形下带有红利的最优投资模型研究

本文讨论部分信息情形下带有红利的最优投资策略,推广了Lakner模型.     

双重看涨期权定价的估计

在市场无套利、无摩擦和无风险利率为常数假定下,分别讨论了无红利配发和有红利配发情形时,一种新型期权—双重看涨期权的定价问题,主要利用套期保值策略对期权定价进行了若干估计,给出了上下界.     

阈红利边界下理赔时间间隔与理赔额相依的风险模型

考虑阈红利边界下理赌时间间隔与理赔额相依的风险模型.首先给出了该模型的Gerber- Shiu函数满足的积分.微分方程及更新方程,然后利用Laplace变换及复合几何分布函数得到了Gerber-Shiu函数的确切表达式.     

Optimal Dividend and Capital Injection Strategies in the Compound Poisson Model with Random Interest Rates

The paper considers the optimal dividend and capital injection strategies for the compound poisson risk process in a random interest rates environment. In the model, the surplus is assumed to be ordinary but the interest rates are governed by an exogenous Markov chain. Here, the problem is solved by two steps. First, we find out the capital injection form that the optimal strategy should follow. Then we look for the optimal solution in the restricted set with the particular capital injection form. In the paper, we discuss ``restricted' and ``unrestricted' two cases and provide a possible solution for ``unrestricted' case when the claim distribution is exponential.     

A periodic dividend problem with inconstant barrier in Markovian environment

Periodic dividend problem is a meaningful issue. Based on a compound binomial model with periodic dividend, we use a homogeneous, ergodic and irreducible discrete-time Markov chain to express the evolution from one period to the subsequent of the economic or the environmental and climatic conditions. We derive some properties about the model. A system of integral equations for the expectation and the r-th moment of discounted dividends until ruin time are obtained respectively. Moreover, by using of Contraction Mapping Principle, we solve the equation system and obtain the explicit expression.     

具有混合指数索赔分布的经典复合泊松风险模型中的分红问题

本文研究了具有某混合指数索赔分布的经典复合泊松风险模型中的分红问题.利用随机控制理论,在无界分红强度的假设下,给出了值函数的显式表达式和相应的最优分红策略.推广了文献[4]的结果.     

Analysis of the Gerber-Shiu function and dividend barrier problems for a risk process with two classes of claims

In this paper we consider a risk model with two independent classes of insurance risks. We assume that the two independent claim counting processes are, respectively, the Poisson and the generalized Erlang(2) process. We prove that the Gerber-Shiu function satisfies some defective renewal equations. Exact representations for the solutions of these equations are derived through an associated compound geometric distribution and an analytic expression for this quantity is given when the claim severities have rationally distributed Laplace transforms. Further, the same risk model is considered in the presence of a constant dividend barrier. A system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the Gerber-Shiu function is derived and solved. Using systems of integro-differential equations for the moment-generating function as well as for the arbitrary moments of the discounted sum of the dividend payments until ruin, a matrix version of the dividends-penalty is derived. An extension to a risk model when the two independent claim counting processes are Poisson and generalized Erlang(ν), respectively, is considered, generalizing the aforementioned results.     

Expected present value of total dividends in a delayed claims risk model under stochastic interest rates

In this paper, a compound binomial risk model with a constant dividend barrier under stochastic interest rates is considered. Two types of individual claims, main claims and by-claims, are defined, where every by-claim is induced by the main claim and may be delayed for one time period with a certain probability. In the evaluation of the expected present value of dividends, the interest rates are assumed to follow a Markov chain with finite state space. A system of difference equations with certain boundary conditions for the expected present value of total dividend payments prior to ruin is derived and solved. Explicit results are obtained when the claim sizes are K_n distributed or the claim size distributions have finite support. Numerical results are also provided to illustrate the impact of the delay of by-claims on the expected present value of dividends.     

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??In this paper, we consider the optimal dividend problem in the spectrally positive L\'{e}vy model with regime switching. By an auxiliary optimal problem, the principle of dynamic programming and the fluctuation theory of L\'{e}vy processes, we show that optimal strategy is a modulated barrier strategy. The value function and the optimal dividend barrier are obtained by iteration.