General linear formulations of stochastic dominance criteria

We develop and implement linear formulations of general Nth order stochastic dominance criteria for discrete probability distributions. Our approach is based on a piece-wise polynomial representation of utility and its derivatives and can be implemented by solving a relatively small system of linear inequalities. This approach allows for comparing a given prospect with a discrete set of alternative prospects as well as for comparison with a polyhedral set of linear combinations of prospects. We also derive a linear dual formulation in terms of lower partial moments and co-lower partial moments. An empirical application to historical stock market data suggests that the passive stock market portfolio is highly inefficient relative to actively managed portfolios for all investment horizons and for nearly all investors. The results also illustrate that the mean–variance rule and second-order stochastic dominance rule may not detect market portfolio inefficiency because of non-trivial violations of non-satiation and prudence.     

Relative deprivation as a cause of risky behaviors

ABSTRACT

Combining a standard measure of concern about low relative wealth and a standard measure of relative risk aversion leads to a novel explanation of variation in risk-taking behavior identified and documented by social psychologists and economists. We obtain two results: (1) Holding individual i’s wealth and his rank in the wealth distribution constant, the individual’s relative risk aversion decreases when he becomes more relatively deprived as a result of an increase in the average wealth of the individuals who are wealthier than he is. (2) If relative deprivation enters the individual’s utility function approximately linearly then, holding constant individual i’s wealth and the average wealth of the individuals who are wealthier than he is, the individual’s relative risk aversion decreases when he becomes more relatively deprived as a result of a decline in his rank. Our findings provide a theoretical support for evidence about the propensity of relatively deprived individuals to gamble and resort to other risky behaviors.     

Empirical Likelihood Inference for Functional Coefficient ARCH-M Model

Empirical likelihood inference for parametric and nonparametric parts in functional coefficient ARCH-M models is investigated in this paper. Firstly, the kernel smoothing technique is used to estimate coefficient function δ(x). In this way we obtain an estimated function with parameter β.Secondly, the empirical likelihood method is developed to estimate the parameter β. An estimated empirical log-likelohood ratio is proved to be asymptotically standard chi-squred, and the maximum empirical likelihood estimation(MELE) for β is shown to be asymptotically normal. Finally, based on the MELE of β, the empirical likelihood approach is again applied to reestimate the nonparametric part δ(x). The empirical log-likelohood ratio for δ(x) is proved to be also asymptotically standard chi-squred. Simulation study shows that the proposed method works better than the normal approximation method in terms of average areas of confidence regions for β, and the empirical likelihood confidence belt for δ(x) performs well.     

Socially responsible merchant operations: Comparison of shutdown-averse CVaR and anticipated regret policies

Commodity and energy production assets are managed as real options on market uncertainties. Social impacts of plant shutdowns incentivize balancing asset value with shutdown probability. We propose new shutdown-averse policies based on the popular dynamic conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We analytically and numerically compare these policies to known shutdown-averse policies based on anticipated regret (AR). Our findings support the use of AR over CVaR to embed shutdown-aversion and the consideration of hybrid policies that are asymptotically time-consistent but easily interpretable.     

A Bowley solution with limited ceded risk for a monopolistic reinsurer

Borch (1969) advocated that the study of optimal reinsurance design should take into consideration the conflicting interests of both an insurer and a reinsurer. Motivated by this and exploiting a Bowley solution (or Stackelberg equilibrium game), this paper proposes a two-step model that tackles an optimal risk transfer problem between the insurer and the reinsurer. From the insurer’s perspective, the first step of the model provisionally derives an optimal reinsurance policy for a given reinsurance premium while reflecting the reinsurer’s risk appetite. The reinsurer’s risk appetite is controlled by imposing upper limits on the first two moments of the coverage. Through a comparative analysis, the effect of the insurer’s initial wealth on the demand for reinsurance is then examined, when the insurer’s risk aversion and prudence are taken into account. Based on the insurer’s provisional strategy, the second step of the model determines the monopoly premium that maximizes the reinsurer’s expected profit while still satisfying the insurer’s incentive condition. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate our Bowley solution.     

Skewness Term-Structure Tests

In this paper, we conduct skewness term-structure tests to check whether the temporal structure of risk-neutral skewness is consistent with rational expectations. Because risk-neutral skewness is substantially mean reverting, skewness shocks should decay quickly and risk-neutral skewness of more distant option should display the rationally expected smoothing behaviour. Using an equilibrium asset and option-pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion with stochastic jump intensity, we derive this elasticity analytically. In an empirical application of the model using more than 20 years of data on S&P500 index options, we find that this elasticity turns out to be different than suggested under rational expectations – smaller on the short end (underreaction) and larger on the long end (overreaction) of the ‘skewness curve’.     

Estimating the distortion parameter of the proportional hazards premium for heavy-tailed losses under Lévy-stable regime

Estimating the distorted parameter in the case of non negative heavy-tailed losses has been treated in Brahimi et al. (2011). In this paper, we extend this work to the case of the real heavy-tailed losses. We derive an asymptotic distribution of the estimator. We construct a practically implemented confidence interval for the distortion parameter and illustrate the performance of the interval in a simulation study with application to real data.     

带有风险回避的最优消费模型研究

本文在文献[1]和[2]的基础上,把模型参数推广为时间t的变量,折扣因子β(t)为[0,T]上的有界可测函数,通过计算得出带有风险回避的最优消费条件和投资公式.     

基于动态参照点的损失厌恶投资组合优化模型

在连续时间下,考虑损失厌恶投资者参照点的动态调整特征,构建基于动态参照点的损失厌恶投资组合模型,使用鞅方法对模型进行求解,得到最优风险资产权重的解析表达式。并计算损失厌恶投资者在参照点动态调整条件下的预期最优期末财富。进一步应用数值算例,分析投资者的参照点动态调整幅度和损失厌恶水平对模型最优风险资产权重和预期最优期末财富的影响。     

Dynamic pricing and warranty policies for products with fixed lifetime

We consider a repairable product with known market entry and departure times. A warranty policy is offered with product purchase, under which a customer can have a failed item repaired free of charge in the warranty period. It is assumed that customers are heterogeneous in their risk attitudes toward uncertain repair costs incurred after the warranty expires. The objective is to determine a joint dynamic pricing and warranty policy for the lifetime of the product, which maximizes the manufacturer’s expected profit. In the first part of the analysis, we consider a linearly decreasing price function and a constant warranty length. We first study customers’ purchase patterns under several different pricing strategies by the manufacturer and then discuss the optimal pricing and warranty strategy. In the second part, we assume that the warranty length can be altered once during the product lifetime in developing a joint pricing and warranty policy. Numerical studies show that a dynamic warranty policy can significantly outperform a fixed-length warranty policy.