Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions

Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in normalized log returns, the probability distributions for such single asset encounters incorporate the time factor by means of the internal rate of return, defined as the continuous compound interest. Resulting stylized facts are shown in the probability distributions derived from the daily series of TOPIX, S & P 500 and FTSE 100 index close values. The application of the above analysis to minute-tick data of NIKKEI 225 and its futures market, respectively, reveals an interesting difference in the behavior of the two probability distributions, in case a threshold on the minimal duration of the long position is imposed. It is therefore suggested that the probability distributions of the internal rates of return could be used for causality mining between the underlying and derivative stock markets. The highly specific discrete spectrum, which results from noise trader strategies as opposed to the smooth distributions observed for fundamentalist strategies in single encounter transactions may be useful in deducing the type of investment strategy from trading revenues of small portfolio investors.     

非参数假设检验在证券投资分析中的应用

通过引入一种新的估计方法——非参数假设检验方法,以达到对证券投资咨询机构对证券市场大盘走势预测准确度的估计.通过对估计结果的分析得出结论,有99%的把握认为,中国证券市场投资咨询机构所提供的对大盘涨跌的预测,每次有一半家数正确的概率没有达到45%,因而投资者应慎重对待投资咨询机构的大盘预测.     

A study of the relationship between competitiveness and technological innovation capability based on DEA models

Researchers and managers have been searching for appropriate methods to explore the relationship between technological innovation capability and competitiveness in recent years. This study attempts to find a systematic quantitative methodology to tackle this problem. In a recent survey covering 182 industrial innovative firms in China, the traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was employed to analyze the data collected. The research results show that only 16% of the enterprises operate on the best-practice frontier and there are some inconsistencies between organizational innovation capability and competitiveness in many enterprises. Decreasing returns to scale were found among about 70% of the inefficient enterprises and increasing returns to scale were found among the remaining 30% of the inefficient enterprises. Thus the internal innovation harmonizing process in these enterprises is considerably inefficient. Based on the restricted ranges of the input/output factors, a multi-objective DEA projection model has also been developed in this study to provide a benchmark for auditing competitiveness. Research results further indicate that there is still much room for enterprises to improve competitiveness in situations of confining score ranges of technological innovation capability and competitiveness.     

将数学建模思想融入工科“概率统计”教学中

提出‘概率统计”课程的一种教学改革思路,注重理论联系实际,强调应用案例中融入数学建模思想的新的教学法.改革课堂教学方法,探索新的教学模式.加强学生的实践性教学环节,培养学生的应用能力和创新能力.     

一种基于区间数的证券组合投资模型与求解

提出了区间数的相对左偏度的定义.利用区间数的相对左偏度作为区间数下表达证券风险损失率的一种补充,能合理地反映风险损失率与预期收益率之间的相关关系.建立了一种新的证券组合投资区间数规划模型,将区间数规划模型转化为参数线性规划问题求解,使证券组合投资决策分析更加具有柔性.最后通过实例分析了该模型的应用价值.     

时间序列模型的动态计量分析方法在科研投入效果评价中的应用

运用时间序列模型的动态计量方法对科研投入的效果进行分析.以GDP作为检验科研投入效果的经济指标,对1980-2001年我国科研投入对经济增长的贡献作用进行实证分析,构建了科研投入与GDP的自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型,以此为起点并结合平稳性检验和协整检验建立了动态计量经济学模型的一般形式即误差修正模型(ECM),该模型刻画了科研投入与经济增长二者之间长期稳定的均衡关系.     

深化改革,提高大学物理实验教学质量

本文结合实际介绍了在大学物理实验教学中所进行的一系列改革及其在提高物理实验教学质量中的作用。     

不确定性投资决策中的期权博弈分析

本文应用期权博弈理论方法分析了存在竞争条件下的不确定性投资决策问题.建立了一个对称双寡头模型,用实物期权方法计算了模型中的领先者、跟随者和同时投资者的价值函数和投资临界点.     

证券组合投资的多目标区间数线性规划模型

本文提出了证券组合投资的多目标区间数线性规划模型，引入了收益——风险偏好参数和优化水平参数。投资者可以根据对风险的喜好程度和金融市场的客观情况，适当估计这两个参数，从而得到相应情况下的有效投资方案，使投资过程更具柔性，而且更接近于实际情况。     

Economic evaluation for the optimal introduction of flexible manufacturing technology under rivalry

Unless procedures for the economic evaluation of flexible manufacturing technology are revamped, much of U.S. industry could repeat the experience of American automobile and steel companies from the recent past. The dynamic character of flexible manufacturing technology in terms of associated developments in microelectronics, a trend toward equipment modularity, and the increasing diversity of relevant markets make flexible manufacturing especially vulnerable to the weaknesses of conventional procedures for the justification of capital expenditures. Building on the work of V. Smith, M.I. Kamien and N.L. Schwartz, this paper presents optimization models from which economically reasonable plans can be derived for the implementation of flexible manufacturing technology. Although the assumptions of these models are not focused on the situation of a specific plant, model implications and the overall perspectives here on the economic evaluation of flexible system options should provide general guidance for manufacturing planners.