上海市电力需求的协整与误差修正分析

本文采用协整与误差修正模型技术研究了上海市电力需求的决定因素,建立了上海电力需求函数,检验了电力需求与国内生产总值、电力价格、经济结构、电力使用效率之间的长期均衡关系及短期波动关系。     

Speedup estimates for some variants of the parallel implementations of the branch-and-bound method

The efficiency of parallel implementations of the branch-and-bound method in discrete optimization problems is considered. A theoretical analysis and comparison of two parallel implementations of this method is performed. A mathematical model of the computation process is constructed and used to obtain estimates of the maximum possible speedup. Examples of problems in which none of these two parallel implementations can speed up the computations are considered.     

利用有效液滴模型对超重元素α衰变半衰期的研究

利用有效液滴模型计算了偶偶超重核的α衰变半衰期,计算过程中采用了保持碎片体积守恒的不对称形状描述以及有效惯性系数计算Gamow势垒穿透因子.首先在质子数Z为88—98的区域检验了有效液滴模型,发现计算结果与实验符合得比较好.随后将此模型推广到Z≥100的情况,虽然只用了两个模型参数,计算结果与实验数据符合,说明有效液滴模型是计算偶偶超重核素α衰变半衰期的一个成功模型.     

A fractal model of reinforcement of elastoplastic nanocomposites

Within the framework of fractal analysis and percolation theory, an alternative model of reinforcement of filled polymers is offered. Practically, this model can be used only to describe the reinforcement of nanocomposites, because, according to the treatment considered, a pronounced reinforcement can be reached only at ratios of filler particle diameter to the statistical segment length of about 10 and less. A theoretical calculation showed a good qualitative and quantitative agreement with experiments. The type of reinforcement mechanism of composites is determined by the type of the space (fractal or Euclidean) in which the structure of the polymeric matrix is formed. __________ Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, Vol. 42, No. 6, pp. 797–802, November–Decem ber, 2006.     

沪深股市相关结构分析研究

在金融市场风险分析中,对金融资产相关结构的讨论有着重要意义,从而引出对如何选取好的相关结构模型来捕捉金融资产间的相关变化规律的讨论。针对这一问题,我们用混合相关结构函数Copula对上海、深圳股票市场进行了相关分析研究,用极值分布刻画了每支股票的边缘分布,用两步估计法对Copula中的参数进行了估计。分析结果表明:混合Copula相关结构能够捕捉金融市场间相关性变化规律,比单个Copula相关结构更灵活,更能全面地反映市场间非对称变化的相关程度和模式,此方法还可以推广到对多种金融资产收益率进行相关性分析。     

人力资本培训投资的博弈分析

针对人力资本组合投资模式仅定性分析职员和企业对人力资本投资行为的特点，应用博弈论进行了相应的定量分析，将贝克尔投资模式与组合投资模式相结合，建立了确定企业投资比率的计算公式，为企业进行人力资本培训投资提供了定量的决策依据。     

Dielectric and conduction mechanism studies of PVA-orthophosphoric acid polymer electrolyte

Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA)-based proton conducting polymer electrolytes have been prepared by the solution cast technique. The conductivity is observed to increase from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻⁴ S cm⁻¹ as a result of orthophosphoric acid (H₃PO₄) addition. The plot of conductivity vs temperature shows that a phase transition occurred at 343 K in the sample PVA-33 wt% H₃PO₄. The β-relaxation peak is observed at 313 K. The glass transition temperature of PVA-33 wt% H₃PO₄ is 343 K. Orthophosphoric acid seems to play a dual role, i.e., as a proton source and as a plasticizer. The ac conductivity σ _ac = Aω ^s was also calculated in the temperature range from 303 to 353 K. The conduction mechanism was inferred by plotting the graph of s vs T from which the conduction mechanism for sample PVA-17 wt% H₃PO₄ was inferred to occur by way of the overlapping large polaron tunneling (OLPT) model and the conduction mechanism for the sample PVA-33 wt% H₃PO₄ by way of the correlated barrier height (CBH) model.     

OPTIMAL HARVESTING POLICY FOR INSHORE-OFFSHORE FISHERY MODEL WITH IMPULSIVE DIFFUSION

This article studies the inshore-offshore fishery model with impulsive diffusion. The existence and global asymptotic stability of both the trivial periodic solution and the positive periodic solution are obtained. The complexity of this system is also analyzed. Moreover, the optimal harvesting policy are given for the inshore subpopulation, which includes the maximum sustainable yield and the corresponding harvesting effort.     

A cellular automaton technique for modelling of a binary dendritic growth with convection

A two-dimensional model for the simulation of a binary dendritic growth with convection has been developed in order to investigate the effects of convection on dendritic morphologies. The model is based on a cellular automaton (CA) technique for the calculation of the evolution of solid/liquid (s/l) interface. The dynamics of the interface controlled by temperature, solute diffusion and Gibbs–Thomson effects, is coupled with the continuum model for energy, solute and momentum transfer with liquid convection. The solid fraction is calculated by a governing equation, instead of some approximate methods such as lever rule method [A. Jacot, M. Rappaz, Acta Mater. 50 (2002) 1909–1926.] or interface velocity method [L. Nastac, Acta Mater. 47 (1999) 4253; L. Beltran-Sanchez, D.M. Stefanescu, Mat. and Mat. Trans. A 26 (2003) 367.]. For the dendritic growth without convection, mesh independency of simulation results is achieved. The simulated steady-state tip velocity are compared with the predicted values of LGK theory [Lipton, M.E. Glicksmanm, W. Kurz, Metall. Trans. 18(A) (1987) 341.] as a function of melt undercooling, which shows good agreement. The growth of dendrite arms in a forced convection has been investigated. It was found that the dendritic growth in the upstream direction was amplified, due to larger solute gradient in the liquid ahead of the s/l interface caused by melt convection. In the isothermal environment, the calculated results under very fine mesh are in good agreement with the Oseen–Ivanstov solution for the concentration-driven growth in a forced flow.     

一类二元相关威布尔分布的可靠性问题

本文考虑生存函数为${\ol{F}(x_{1},x_{2})}=\exp\{-[(x_{1}^{1/\alpha}/\theta_{1})^{1/\delta}+(x_{2}^{1/\alpha}/\theta_{2})^{1/\delta}]^{\delta}\},\;x_{i}>0,\;\alpha>0$, $1\geq\delta>0,\;\theta_{i}>0\;(i=1,2)$的二元威布尔分布的两种可靠性问题, 提出可靠度$\pr$的估计并讨论了它们的渐近性, 最后还作了模拟计算.