时间敏感选项依赖下的基础设施恢复决策研究

突发事件发生后,基础设施之间的恢复依赖为恢复过程带来了严重挑战。为了能够在突发事件后高效而有序的实现基础设施恢复运行,根据相互之间的恢复依赖关系制定合理的恢复决策非常关键。本文基于网络流理论,以累积恢复效能最大化为目标,建立了时间敏感选项依赖下的恢复设计与调度决策混合整数规划模型。然后,讨论了模型在完全中心化、完全分散和信息共享决策环境下的应用方法。最后,通过真实基础设施数据集测试了模型,结果表明:(1)该模型在突发事件后的基础设施恢复决策中具有应用可行性;(2)决策环境显著影响存在恢复依赖的基础设施网络整体累积恢复效能;(3)与完全分散决策环境相比,在信息共享决策环境下独立决策的整体累积恢复效能可以得到大幅提升。     

n人可信策略博弈

本文研究模糊支付n人策略博弈,由于支付信息的不完全性,模糊支付可视为模糊变量。基于可信性理论,在不同的决策环境中引入模糊排序方法表征支付者行为。因此,本文定义四种可信均衡,等价于纳什均衡。其次证明了可信均衡存在性定理。除此之外,在现实策略博弈中用算例说明四种可信均衡的现实意义。最后讨论四种可信均衡之间可能存在的关系。     

A model of product line design and introduction sequence with reservation utility

Cannibalization is a major concern for a firm when designing a product line. In addition, external options from outside the firm’s product line may also play a significant role. In this paper, we investigate the impact of external options, represented by reservation utility, on product line design and introduction sequence. We find that: (a) heterogeneous reservation utility defines the relative attractiveness of segments and corresponding product line; (b) reservation utility makes it more favorable to introduce products sequentially rather than simultaneously; (c) aggregating segments is an effective way to mitigate cannibalization when it becomes too difficult to manage with different values of reservation utility across multiple segments; and (d) introducing products in a non-monotone order of quality can improve profit from simultaneous introduction when the value of reservation utility of a middle segment is particularly high.     

Volatility estimation for stochastic project value models

One of the key parameters in modeling capital budgeting decisions for investments with embedded options is the project volatility. Most often, however, there is no market or historical data available to provide an accurate estimate for this parameter. A common approach to estimating the project volatility in such instances is to use a Monte Carlo simulation where one or more sources of uncertainty are consolidated into a single stochastic process for the project cash flows, from which the volatility parameter can be determined. Nonetheless, the simulation estimation method originally suggested for this purpose systematically overstates the project volatility, which can result in incorrect option values and non-optimal investment decisions. Examples that illustrate this issue numerically have appeared in several recent papers, along with revised estimation methods that address this problem. In this article, we extend that work by showing analytically the source of the overestimation bias and the adjustment necessary to remove it. We then generalize this development for the cases of levered cash flows and non-constant volatility. In each case, we use an example problem to show how a revised estimation methodology can be applied.     

Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options

We treat real option value when the underlying process is arithmetic Brownian motion (ABM). In contrast to the more common assumption of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and multiplicative diffusion, with ABM the underlying project value is expressed as an additive process. Its variance remains constant over time rather than rising or falling along with the project’s value, even admitting the possibility of negative values. This is a more compelling paradigm for projects that are managed as a component of overall firm value. After outlining the case for ABM, we derive analytical formulas for European calls and puts on dividend-paying assets as well as a numerical algorithm for American-style and other more complex options based on ABM. We also provide examples of their use.     

基于非对称漂移双gamma跳-扩散过程的创新幂型期权定价模型

针对假设股价的对数收益率布朗运动在期权定价时产生的无法解释股价对数收益率的尖峰厚尾和序列相关性的缺陷,采用了Zhang提出的非对称漂移双gamma跳-扩散过程来描述资产(股价)的对数收益率运动形态(该过程是kou提出的双指数跳-扩散过程的推广),并利用Esscher风险中性变换,研究了幂型期权的定价公式.还设计了两种创新的幂型期权,在非对称漂移双gamma跳-扩散过程下给出了相应的定价公式.     

Uncertainty and stepwise investment

We analyze the optimal investment strategy of a firm that can complete a project either in one stage at a single freely chosen time point or in incremental steps at distinct time points. The presence of economies of scale gives rise to the following trade-off: lumpy investment has a lower total cost, but stepwise investment gives more flexibility by letting the firm choose the timing individually for each stage. Our main question is how uncertainty in market development affects this trade-off. The answer is unambiguous and in contrast with a conventional real-options intuition: higher uncertainty makes the single-stage investment more attractive relative to the more flexible stepwise investment strategy.     

Hybrid artificial neural networks for efficient valuation of real options and financial derivatives

A hybrid valuation methodology is proposed and tested for improving the efficiency of contingent claims pricing by combining Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and conventional parametric option pricing techniques. With one application on financial derivatives and one on real options the methods superiority is demonstrated. The resulting efficiency is instrumental for real time applications.MSC code: 90-08 Acknowledgements: Both authors are thankful for partial financial support to the HERMES European Center of Excellence on Computational Finance and Economics of the University of Cyprus and a University of Cyprus grant for research in ANNs and Derivatives, and to the anonymous referees for their helpful comments and discussions.     

Fractional diffusion models of option prices in markets with jumps

Most of the recent literature dealing with the modeling of financial assets assumes that the underlying dynamics of equity prices follow a jump process or a Lévy process. This is done to incorporate rare or extreme events not captured by Gaussian models. Of those financial models proposed, the most interesting include the CGMY, KoBoL and FMLS. All of these capture some of the most important characteristics of the dynamics of stock prices. In this article we show that for these particular Lévy processes, the prices of financial derivatives, such as European-style options, satisfy a fractional partial differential equation (FPDE). As an application, we use numerical techniques to price exotic options, in particular barrier options, by solving the corresponding FPDEs derived.     

Bonus or flat wage? An experiment into the principal-agent problem

We conduct a simple principal-agent experiment in order to find the effects of information asymmetry on compensation. Our aim is the analysis of the appropriate compensation and its impact on employee’s effort. Furthermore we want to compare the offered compensation and the supplied effort in the version without communication and we want to know whether the experimental observations are consistent with the theoretical considerations.The experimenters found out that compensations observed during the experiment were different from those suggested by the theory and although they were theoretically not enough to induce high effort, we could observe high performance supplied by the agents.