时间敏感选项依赖下的基础设施恢复决策研究

突发事件发生后,基础设施之间的恢复依赖为恢复过程带来了严重挑战。为了能够在突发事件后高效而有序的实现基础设施恢复运行,根据相互之间的恢复依赖关系制定合理的恢复决策非常关键。本文基于网络流理论,以累积恢复效能最大化为目标,建立了时间敏感选项依赖下的恢复设计与调度决策混合整数规划模型。然后,讨论了模型在完全中心化、完全分散和信息共享决策环境下的应用方法。最后,通过真实基础设施数据集测试了模型,结果表明:(1)该模型在突发事件后的基础设施恢复决策中具有应用可行性;(2)决策环境显著影响存在恢复依赖的基础设施网络整体累积恢复效能;(3)与完全分散决策环境相比,在信息共享决策环境下独立决策的整体累积恢复效能可以得到大幅提升。

Study of Restoration Decisions for Infrastructures Existing Time-Sensitive Options Interdependency

Restoration interdependency among infrastructures brings serious challenges to infrastructure restoration after a non-routine event. In order to restore infrastructures efficiently and orderly, it is critical making restoration decisions according to interdependency relationship. With the conditions of time and resource constraint, the paper proposes a mixed-integer programming model for infrastructure restoration design and scheduling with time-sensitive options restoration interdependency based on network flow theory. The objective of model is to maximize the cumulative performance of infrastructure restoration. Then, the applications of the model are discussed in the three typical decision-making environments containing centralized and decentralized and information-sharing decision-making environments. Finally, based on real infrastructure data set, the model is tested in the three decision-making environments, and the study finds: (1)it is feasible to apply the model to the infrastructure restoration design and scheduling after a non-routine event; (2)decision-making environments have a significantly effect on the whole cumulative performance of infrastructure restoration existing interdependency; (3)compared with decentralized decision-making environment, the whole cumulative performance of infrastructure restoration of independent decision can be improved greatly in information-sharing decision-making environment.