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Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options
Authors:David Richard Alexander
Institution:a School of Business, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, New Zealand
b Misys International Banking Systems Limited, Suite 601, 6th Floor, Dah Sing Financial Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong
c Department of Economics and Finance, University of Canterbury, Forestry Road, Ilam, Christchurch, New Zealand
Abstract:We treat real option value when the underlying process is arithmetic Brownian motion (ABM). In contrast to the more common assumption of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and multiplicative diffusion, with ABM the underlying project value is expressed as an additive process. Its variance remains constant over time rather than rising or falling along with the project’s value, even admitting the possibility of negative values. This is a more compelling paradigm for projects that are managed as a component of overall firm value. After outlining the case for ABM, we derive analytical formulas for European calls and puts on dividend-paying assets as well as a numerical algorithm for American-style and other more complex options based on ABM. We also provide examples of their use.
Keywords:Investment analysis  Real options  Risk-neutral valuation  Arithmetic Brownian motion
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