Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

V型三能级原子与非经典光场作用中光场特性的变化

研究了V型三能级原子BEC与双模压缩光场相互作用系统中,忽略原子间相互作用和考虑原子间相互作用时光场的正交压缩和光子数压缩。结果表明,光场的正交压缩依赖于压缩参数,而光子数压缩与压缩参数、光场信号强度有关,在一定条件下,两种压缩可同时存在。原子间相互作用影响两种压缩的涨落随时间变化的周期,以及正交分量涨落随时间变化的幅度,而对光子数压缩涨落随时间变化的幅度几乎无影响。     

SBIRS-HIGH对导弹上升段位置测量精度及中末段位置预报精度的分析

根据目前的技术水平分析了高空天基红外系统(SBIRS-HIGH)的技术参数;理论上计算了SBIRS-HIGH对导弹上升段的位置测量精度以及中末段任意时刻飞行位置的预报精度;研究了SBIRS-HIGH对中段和末端导弹拦截系统的导引能力。     

SN方法粒子输运计算程序自动建模关键技术问题研究

在充分调研和分析SN方法粒子输运计算程序自动建模方法的基础上，对建模过程中的模型文件格式识别、属性编辑、空腔处理及自动划分离散网格等关键技术问题进行了研究，并提出了合理可行的解决方法。通过对SNAM程序建模部分功能测试，验证了这些方法的正确性和有效性。This paper presents two approaches to enhance the geometry modeling ability of SN particle transport simulation codes and focus on the key issues that lie in the processing from CAD model to SN code geometry model, e.g. CAD file format support, void modeling, mesh generation and model-editing. SNAM （SN Automatic Modeling system） has been developed as an interface code between commercial CAD software and SN particle transport simmulation codes. The testing results have shown that the algorithm and implementation used in SNAM are efficient and capable of all the necessary processing from CAD model to SN geometry model.     

高Z等离子体中的双电子复合与电子碰撞激发

 采用准相对论性Hartree-Fock-Relativistic方法与不可分辨跃迁组模型相结合，对Au和Ta元素的类Ni离子的双电子复合速率，以及Au元素类Cu离子的电子碰撞激发速率进行了计算。计算结果表明，对于Au类Ni离子的3d¹⁰-3d⁹4l5f-3d¹⁰4l双电子复合过程以及类Cu离子的3d¹⁰4l-3d⁹4l5f电子碰撞激发过程，当电子温度高于1.0 keV时，电子离子碰撞激发速率随电子温度增加而增加，双电子复合速率随电子温度增加而减小，并且电子碰撞激发对谱线辐射的贡献要比双电子复合大得多。     

A comparative study of the structure and crystallization of bulk metallic amorphous rod Pr60Ni30Al10 and melt-spun metallic amorphous ribbon Al87Ni10Pr3

Pr-based bulk metallic amorphous （BMA） rods （Pr60Ni30Al10） and Al-based amorphous ribbons （Al87Ni10Pr3） have been prepared by using copper mould casting and single roller melt-spun techniques, respectively. Thermal parameters deduced from differential scanning calorimeter （DSC） indicate that the glass-forming ability （GFA） of Pr60Ni30Al10 BMA rod is far higher than that of Al87Ni10Pr3 ribbon. A comparative study about the differences in structure between the two kinds of glass-forming alloys, superheated viscosity and crystallization are also made. Compared with the amorphous alloy Al87Ni10Pr3, the BMA alloy Pr60Ni30Al10 shows high thermal stability and large viscosity, small diffusivity at the same superheated temperatures. The results of x-Ray diffraction （XRD） and transmission electron microscope （TEM） show the pronounced difference in structure between the two amorphous alloys. Together with crystallization results, the main structure compositions of the amorphous samples are confirmed. It seems that the higher the GFA, the more topological type clusters in the Pr-Ni-Al amorphous alloys, the GFAs of the present glass-forming alloys are closely related to their structures.     

Sigma Terms and Strangeness Contents of Baryon Octet in Modified Chiral Perturbation Theory

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配送量不定的供应链协调

本文研究供应链管理中配送量不确定时，制造商和分销商之间的协调问题。通过建立惩罚和奖励机制模型来协调供应链各部分的运作，使得分散系统就如一个整体。同时分析供应链的利润分配问题，分别得出各个机制下分销商的最优决策。     

第五讲新型光纤水听器和矢量水听器

光纤水听器和矢量水听器作为当前水声研究领域最具有代表性的两大技术倍受业界关注。光纤水听器的重要贡献在于，从一个全新的角度出发，试图解决传统的水声传感和声纳数据传输一体化设计和实现的一系列问题，这有助于改善声纳系统的可靠性，并且有可能降低其制造、使用和维护的总成本。矢量水听器则由于其特有的指向性和矢量一相位处理方法，在低频和甚低频水声微弱目标探测方面具有潜在的优势．经过不懈的努力，光纤水听器和矢量水听器系统已经从实验室逐渐进入到工程应用阶段．这些对未来声纳系统的发展会产生相当重要的影响．文章尝试从声纳设计的角度对这两者的技术现状进行简要综述，包括它们各自的物理基础、工作原理、关键技术和应用领域．     

CsI(Tl)晶体中反冲Cs和I核Quenching?Factor的测量

许多实验对用CsI(Tl)闪烁晶体作为探测器来寻找和探测暗物质的可行性进行了研究.本工作利用8MeV单能中子轰击CsI(Tl)晶体探测器来研究Cs核和I核的QuenchingFactor.在数据处理中,运用脉冲形状甄别(PSD)方法来分辨反冲核信号和本底信号.实验结果表明,在7keV到132keV的能区中,Quench ingFactor随着反冲核能量的减少而增加.在探测暗物质的实验中,这一性质对于CsI(Tl)晶体探测器获得较低的能量阈值是很有利的.