Optimal Reinsurance-Investment Strategy Under Risks of Interest Rate,Exchange Rate and Inflation

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - In this paper, we pursue the optimal reinsurance-investment strategy of an insurer who can invest in both domestic and foreign markets. We assume...     

Detailed experimental and kinetic modeling study of 3-carene pyrolysis

3-Carene is an important potential biofuel with properties similar to the jet-propellant JP-10. Its thermal decomposition and combustion behavior is to date unknown, which is essential to assess its quality as a fuel. A combined experimental and kinetic modeling study has been conducted to understand the initial decomposition of 3-carene. The pyrolysis of 3-carene was investigated in a jet-stirred quartz reactor at atmospheric pressure, at temperatures varying from 650 to 1050 K, covering the complete conversion range. The decomposition of 3-carene was observed to start around 800 K, and it is almost complete at 970 K. Online gas chromatography shows that primarily aromatics are generated which suggests that 3-carene is not a good fuel candidate. The potential energy surface for the initial decomposition pathways determined by KinBot shows that a hydrogen elimination reaction dominates, giving primarily cara-2,4-diene. Next to this molecular pathway, radical pathways lead to aromatics via ring opening. The kinetic model was automatically generated with Genesys and consists of 2565 species and 9331 reactions. New quantum chemical calculations at the CBS-QB3 level of theory were needed to calculate rate coefficients and thermodynamic properties relevant for the primary decomposition of 3-carene. Both the conversion of 3-carene and the yields of the primary products (ie, benzene and hydrogen gas) are well predicted with this kinetic model. Rate of production analyses shows that the dominant pathways to convert 3-carene are hydrogen elimination reaction and radical chemistry.     

To Sandwich Technetium: Highly Functionalized Bis-Arene Complexes [99mTc(η6-arene)2]+ Directly from Water and [99mTcO4]−

The labeling of (bio)molecules with metallic radionuclides such as ^99mTc demands conjugated, multidentate chelators. However, this is not always necessary since phenyl rings can directly serve as integrated, organometallic ligands. Bis-arene sandwich complexes are generally prepared by the Fischer–Hafner reaction. In extension of this, we show that [^99mTc(η⁶-C₆R₆)₂]⁺-type complexes are directly accessible from water and [^99mTcO₄]⁻, even using arenes incompatible with Fischer–Hafner conditions. To unambiguously confirm the nature of these unprecedented ^99mTc complexes, their rhenium homologous have been prepared by substituting naphthalene ligands in [Re(η⁶-C₁₀H₈)₂]⁺ with the corresponding phenyl groups. The ease with which highly stable [^99mTc(η⁶-C₆R₆)₂]⁺ complexes are formed under standard labeling conditions enables a multitude of new potential imaging agents based on commercial pharmaceuticals or lead structures.     

An experimental and modeling study of the oxidation of n-heptane,ethylbenzene, and n-butylbenzene in a jet-stirred reactor at pressures up to 10 bar

In the context of better understanding pollutant formation from internal combustion engines, new experimental speciation data were obtained in a high-pressure jet-stirred reactor for the oxidation of three molecules, which are considered in surrogates of diesel fuel, n-heptane, ethylbenzene, and n-butylbenzene. These experiments were performed at pressures up to 10 bar, at temperatures ranging from 500 to 1 100 K, and for a residence time of 2 s. Based on results previously obtained close to the atmospheric pressure for the same molecules, the pressure effect on fuel conversion and product selectivity was discussed. In addition, for the three fuels, the experimental temperature dependence of species mole fractions was compared with simulations using recent literature models with generally a good agreement. For n-heptane, the obtained experimental data, at 10 bar for stoichiometric mixtures, included the temperature dependence of the mole fractions of the reactants and those of 21 products. Interestingly, the formation of species previously identified as C₇ diones was found significantly enhanced at 10 bar compared with lower pressures. The oxidation of ethyl- and n-butylbenzenes was investigated at 10 bar for equivalence ratios of 0.5, 1, and 2. The obtained experimental data included the temperature dependence of the mole fractions of the reactants and those of 13 products for the C₈ fuels and of 19 products for the C₁₀ one. For ethylbenzene under stoichiometric conditions, the pressure dependence (from 1 to 10 bar) of species mole fraction was also recorded and compared with simulations with more deviations obtained than for temperature dependence. For both aromatic reactants, a flow rate analysis was used to discuss the main pressure influence on product selectivities.     

Heavy tails for an alternative stochastic perpetuity model

In this paper we consider a stochastic model of perpetuity-type. In contrast to the classical affine perpetuity model of Kesten (1973) and Goldie (1991) all discount factors in the model are mutually independent. We prove that the tails of the distribution of this model are regularly varying both in the univariate and multivariate cases. Due to the additional randomness in the model the tails are not pure power laws as in the Kesten–Goldie setting but involve a logarithmic term.     

Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model‐based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change

While the number of models dedicated to predicting the consequences of alternative resource management strategies has increased, instances in which authors look back at past predictions to learn from discrepancies between these and observed developments are scarce. In the past decades, the French Guiana shrimp fishery has experienced shrimp market globalization and decreasing levels of shrimp recruitment due to environmental changes. In 2006, a bio‐economic model of this fishery was developed to simulate its possible responses to economic and environmental scenarios up to 2016. Here, we compare here these predictions to the observed trajectories. While the number of active vessels corresponds to that which was predicted, the estimated shrimp stock does not. Important driving factors had not been anticipated, including a general strike, natural disasters, and the end of the global financial crisis. These results show the importance of participative approaches involving stakeholders in the co‐construction and shared representation of scenarios. Recommendations for resource managers

• Effective fisheries resources management and a fortiori, the capacity of the fisheries to adapt to global change, requires understanding of both ecological and economics dynamics.
• The temporal trajectory of the trawling shrimp fisheries has been well monitored, and the decline of both stock and fleet is understood regarding ecological and economic changes: Changes in the environmental conditions of shrimp recruitment, and oil price increase and selling price decrease.
• However, our bio‐economic modeling work showed that, even with a good understanding of the dynamics explaining past trajectories, unpredictable events (strike, natural disasters…) have acted as other key driving factors altering the capacity of the model to represent possible futures.
• These results led us to recommend a better integration of the expertise of social and political scientists in developing models of bio‐economic systems to increase the quality of scenario predictions, and to argue for more participative approaches involving the stakeholders.

     

Highlights on the Binding of Cobalta-Bis-(Dicarbollide) with Glucose Units

Metalla-bis-dicarbollides, such as the cobalta-bis-dicarbollide (COSAN) anion [Co(C₂B₉H₁₁)₂]⁻, have attracted much attention in biology but a deep understanding of their interactions with cell components is still missing. For this purpose, we studied the interactions of COSAN with the glucose moiety, which is ubiquitous at biological interfaces. Octyl-glucopyranoside surfactant (C8G1) was chosen as a model as it self-assembles in water and creates a hydrated glucose-covered interface. At low COSAN content and below the critical micellar concentration (CMC) of C8G1, COSAN binds to C8G1 monomers through the hydrophobic effect. Above the CMC of C8G1, COSAN adsorbs onto C8G1 micelles through the superchaotropic effect. At high COSAN concentrations, COSAN disrupts C8G1 micelles and the assemblies become similar to COSAN micelles but with a small amount of solubilized C8G1. Therefore, COSAN binds in a versatile way to C8G1 through either the hydrophobic or superchaotropic effect depending on their relative concentrations.     

Model study on steady heat capacity in driven stochastic systems

We explore two- and three-state Markov models driven out of thermal equilibrium by non-potential forces, to demonstrate basic properties of the steady heat capacity based on the concept of quasistatic excess heat. It is shown that large enough driving forces can make the steady heat capacity negative. For both the low- and high-temperature regimes we propose an approximative thermodynamic scheme in terms of “dynamically renormalized” effective energy levels.