A novel linear transformation model for the analysis and optimisation of chemical kinetics

In this study, a novel model for the analysis and optimisation of numerical and experimental chemical kinetics is developed. Concentration–time profiles of non-diffusive chemical kinetic processes and flame speed profiles of fuel–oxidiser mixtures can be described by certain characteristic points, so that relations between the coordinates of these points and the input parameters of chemical kinetic models become almost linear. This linear transformation model simplifies the analysis of chemical kinetic models, hence creating a robust global sensitivity analysis and allowing quick optimisation and reduction of these models. Firstly, in this study the model is extensively validated by the optimisation of a syngas combustion model with a large data set of imitated ignition experiments. The optimisation with the linear transformation model is quick and accurate, revealing the potential for decreasing the numerical costs of the optimisation process by at least one order of magnitude compared to established methods. Additionally, the optimisation on this data set demonstrates the capability of predicting reaction rate coefficients more accurately than by currently known confidence intervals. In a first application, methane combustion models are optimised with a small experimental set consisting of OH(A) and CH(A) concentration profiles from shock tube ignition experiments, species profiles from flow reactor experiments and laminar flame speeds. With the optimised models, especially the predictability for the flame speeds of mixtures of hydrogen, carbon monoxide and methane can be increased compared to established models. With the analysis of the optimised models, new information on the low pressure reaction coefficient of the fall-off reaction H+CH₃(+M)?CH₄(+M) is determined. In addition, the optimised combustion model is quickly and efficiently reduced to validate a new rapid reduction scheme for chemical kinetic models.     

Numerical investigation of pulverized coal particle group combustion using tabulated chemistry

The ignition and combustion of coal particle groups are investigated numerically in a laminar flow reactor. The Flamelet Generated Manifold method is extended to account for the complex mixture of gases being released during devolatilization, which is calculated with a competing two-step model. A second mixture fraction is introduced to include the mixing with the second methane fuel stream. The interactions of the gas phase with particles are modeled within a fully coupled Euler-Lagrange framework. To investigate the influence of particle groups on ignition and combustion, successively increasing densities of particle streams have been analyzed. The ignition delay time is increased significantly by higher particle densities. This delay is validated successfully with the available measurements. Moreover, the shape of the volatile flame was found to be strongly influenced by the particle number density inside the flame. A transition from spherical flames around single particles to a conical flame around the particle cloud could be found in numerical results as well as in experiments. As the primary mechanism for the substantial ignition delay and the formation of the flame, the increased heat transfer from the gas-phase to the particle group, resulting in lower gas-phase temperatures, was identified.     

Predicting the ignition delay of turbulent methane jets using Conditional Source-term Estimation

A predictive simulation of the autoignition process of non-premixed methane in a turbulent jet configuration was performed. Closure for the chemical source-term was obtained using Conditional Source-term Estimation with Laminar Flamelet Decomposition (CSE-LFD). The ambient oxidizer conditions – the high pressure and moderate temperatures characteristic of compression ignition engines – were chosen with the intent to validate the combustion model used under engine-relevant conditions. Validation was obtained by comparison of the predicted ignition delay to experimental results obtained from a shock-tube facility at several initial temperatures. Overall, the combination of full chemistry that has been carefully tuned to predict autoignition of premixed methane–air mixtures under similar temperature/pressure conditions with the CSE-LFD model is able to successfully predict the autoignition delay time of methane–air jets well within the scatter in the experimental data.     

Temperature measurement of a premixed radially symmetric methane flame jet using the Mach-Zehnder Interferometry

The temperature field of a premixed methane symmetric laminar flame jet is visualized by studying the interferograms of the flame, using the Mach-Zehnder Interferometry. Two kinds of oxidizers are chosen for combustion: industrially pure oxygen and oxygen-enriched air. The flame is chosen to be both lean, and rich. For the lean oxygen-enriched combustion (OEC), the equivalence ratio was held constant at 0.5, and the oxygen enrichment was adjusted to 0.5 and 0.6, and for rich OEC, equivalence ratio is chosen to be 1.2 while the oxygen enrichment was 0.7 and 0.8. For methane/oxygen combustion, the equivalence ratio varied from 0.35 to 0.55 for the lean flame, and 1.3 and 1.7 for the rich flame. Attempt was made to keep the Reynolds number unchanged at 500, for OEC, and 1000, for methane/oxygen flame. In the present study a non-contact method is successfully developed to measure the temperature field of a premixed radially symmetric laminar methane flame jet. The effect of oxygen enrichment and equivalence ratio on temperature field is also investigated and depicted.     

A study of ignition and combustion of liquid hydrocarbon droplets in premixed fuel/air mixtures in a rapid compression machine

The combustion of two fuels with disparate reactivity such as natural gas and diesel in internal combustion engines has been demonstrated as a means to increase efficiency, reduce fuel costs and reduce pollutant formation in comparison to traditional diesel or spark-ignited engines. However, dual fuel engines are constrained by the onset of uncontrolled fast combustion (i.e., engine knock) as well as incomplete combustion, which can result in high unburned hydrocarbon emissions. To study the fundamental combustion processes of ignition and flame propagation in dual fuel engines, a new method has been developed to inject single isolated liquid hydrocarbon droplets into premixed methane/air mixtures at elevated temperatures and pressures. An opposed-piston rapid compression machine was used in combination with a newly developed piezoelectric droplet injection system that is capable of injecting single liquid hydrocarbon droplets along the stagnation plane of the combustion chamber. A high-speed Schlieren optical system was used for imaging the combustion process in the chamber. Experiments were conducted by injecting diesel droplet of various diameters (50 µm < d_o < 400 µm), into methane/air mixtures with varying equivalence ratios (0 < ϕ < 1.2) over a range of compressed temperatures (700 K < T_c < 940 K). Multiple autoignition modes was observed in the vicinity of the liquid droplets, which were followed by transition to propagating premixed flames. A computational model was developed with CONVERGE™, which uses a 141 species dual-fuel chemical kinetic mechanism for the gas phase along with a transient, analytical droplet evaporation model to define the boundary conditions at the droplet surface. The simulations capture each of the different ignition modes in the vicinity of the injected spherical diesel droplet, along with bifurcation of the ignition event into a propagating, premixed methane/air flame and a stationary diesel/air diffusion flame.     

双模式放电中DBD放电参数对甲烷滑动弧火焰光谱及活性粒子的影响分析

对未燃烧的可燃混合气体进行DBD放电,放电后会产生大量的活性粒子,这些活性粒子可以辅助气体燃烧,达到提高燃料燃烧利用率等目的。以DBD激励氩气、甲烷、空气产生的自由基（CH基和OH基）等强化燃烧的关键活性粒子为探索对象,研究DBD放电激励甲烷对滑动弧火焰的影响。为此,采用自主设计的DBD-滑动弧双模式等离子体激励器,利用同轴介质阻挡放电结构对氩气、甲烷、空气混合气进行放电激励,将激励后的氩气、甲烷、空气混合气通入滑动弧端进行点火。固定氩气流量不变,调整空气流量为4.76 L·min-1,并加入甲烷0.5 L·min-1,保证进气通道内氩气与空气-甲烷的气体体积流量比达到Ar∶（CH₄+Air）=1∶30,其中空气、甲烷这两种气体达到了化学燃烧当量比φ=1,氩气、甲烷、甲烷混合气体能实现均匀而稳定的放电并燃烧。DBD段放电电压在15～20 kV范围变化,放电频率在6～10 kHz范围变化,滑动弧段的电压和频率分别保持4 kV与10 kHz恒定,通过改变DBD段放电电压和放电频率,用高速光纤光谱仪检测滑动弧火焰中自由基种类及其光谱强度,分析放电参数激励甲烷对火焰中自由基（CH基和OH基）的影响。结果表明,DBD段放电电压及放电频率的增加可以促进火焰内部的偶联反应发生,可有效提升甲烷滑动弧火焰内部的活性粒子含量,其中OH基团、CH基团在燃烧链式化学反应进程中发挥着较为重要的作用。甲烷经过DBD激励后,随放电电压和频率的增加,火焰中OH基、CH基等主要活性粒子都随之增加。DBD放电后,活性粒子的光谱强度增大,特征谱线比单模式更加明显;甲烷经过DBD激励后,火焰组成发生了变化,滑动弧段出口处甲烷燃烧反应更加充分,火焰温度越高越容易产生OH基。与单模式滑动弧相比,双模式放电可有效促进火焰内部的链式化学反应进程,促进燃料燃烧。     

1-庚烯/空气的高压层流火焰传播研究

本文使用定容圆柱形燃烧弹,在初始温度373 K和初始压力1、2、5、10 atm的条件下,对当量比从0.7到1.5的1-庚烯/空气混合物的层流火焰传播进行了研究.利用记录的纹影图像处理得到层流火焰传播速度和马克斯坦长度.基于先前报道的1-己烯燃烧反应动力学模型,发展了1-庚烯的模型.该模型验证了本工作测量的1-庚烯层流火焰传播速度数据及文献中的1-庚烯着火延迟时间数据.通过开展敏感性分析和路径分析,帮助理解了1-庚烯在不同压力下的高温化学及其对层流火焰传播的影响.另外,比较了1-庚烯/空气和先前报道的正庚烷/空气的层流火焰传播.由于更强的放热性及反应活性,1-庚烯/空气的层流火焰传播速度在绝大多数条件下均快于正庚烷/空气的结果.     

An assessment of large eddy simulations of premixed flames propagating past repeated obstacles

This paper presents an assessment of Large Eddy Simulations (LES) in calculating the structure of turbulent premixed flames propagating past solid obstacles. One objective of the present study is to evaluate the LES simulations and identify the drawbacks in accounting the chemical reaction rate. Another objective is to analyse the flame structure and to calculate flame speed, generated overpressure at different time intervals following ignition of a stoichiometric propane/air mixture. The combustion chamber has built-in repeated solid obstructions to enhance the turbulence level and hence increase the flame propagating speed. Various numerical tests have also been carried out to determine the regimes of combustion at different stages of the flame propagation. These have been identified from the calculated results for the flow and flame characteristic parameters. It is found that the flame lies within the ‘thin reaction zone’ regime which supports the use of the laminar flamelet approach for modelling turbulent premixed flames. A submodel to calculate the model coefficient in the algebraic flame surface density model is implemented and examined. It is found that the LES predictions are slightly improved owing to the calculation of model coefficient by using submodel. Results are presented and discussed in this paper are for the flame structure, position, speed, generated pressure and the regimes of combustion during all stages of flame propagation from ignition to venting. The calculated results are validated against available experimental data.     

Effects of blending 2,5-dimethylfuran on the laminar burning velocity and ignition delay time of isooctane/air mixture

The prospects of 2,5-dimethylfuran (DMF) as a bio-derived fuel that can be blended with gasoline are believed to be impressive. However, the effects of blending DMF on the key combustion parameters like the laminar burning velocity and ignition delay time of gasoline/air mixture need to be studied extensively for the successful implementation of the fuel mixture in spark ignition engines. Therefore, a skeletal chemical kinetic mechanism, comprising of 999 reactions among 218 species, has been developed in the present work for this purpose. The proposed chemical kinetic model has been validated against a wide range of experimental data for the laminar burning velocity and ignition delay time of isooctane (representing gasoline), DMF and their blends. It has been found from the present study that the thermal diffusivity of the unburnt gas mixture changes by a very small amount from the corresponding value for the pure isooctane/air mixture when DMF is added. Unlike isooctane, the DMF molecule does not consume H radicals during its primary breakup. Therefore, the maximum laminar burning velocity increases marginally when 50% DMF is blended with isooctane due to the increased presence of H radicals in the flame. The negative temperature coefficient behaviour in the ignition delay time of the isooctane fuel vanishes when 30% DMF (v/v) is blended to it.     

Development of a reduced biodiesel surrogate model for compression ignition engine modeling

Methylbutanoate (MB), a C₄ methyl ester, represents the simplest surrogate that captures the chemical effects of the ester moiety in biodiesel and biodiesel surrogates. An updated chemical kinetic model has been developed to characterize the ignition and flame characteristics of MB. The mechanistic elements within this model that relate to the MB and smaller ester/oxygenate sub-mechanisms are drawn from the prototypical Fisher et al. model and from more recent theory and modeling efforts. The MB model development which is based on an iterative procedure involving global sensitivity analyses to identify elementary reactions that govern ignition and subsequent high level ab initio based theoretical updates to these reaction rates are presented. The MB model makes reasonable predictions of ignition delays and laminar flame speeds.The C₅–C₇ submechanisms from the LLNL n-heptane (NH) model were merged with the present MB model to obtain a detailed chemical kinetics model for a surrogate blend representing biodiesel. The detailed MB-NH model (661 species) was reduced using graph based techniques. The robust reduction techniques employed result in a reduced model (145 species) that is in good agreement with the detailed model over a wide range of conditions. 3-D compression ignition (CI) engine simulations utilizing this reduced chemistry model for MB-NH blends as a surrogate for biodiesel show good agreement with the experimental data suggesting the utility of this model for predictions of combustion and emission characteristics of biodiesel in realistic CI engine simulations.     

Effect of unsteady pressure rise on flame propagation and near-cold-wall ignition

Thermodynamic pressure rise during combustion is a key feature in internal combustion engines. Yet, hardly any studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of transient pressure rise on flame propagation as well as on the ignition of the unburned gas. In this study, the effects of unsteady pressure rise were parametrically studied using a one-dimensional reacting flow model in which the thermodynamic pressure variation is an independent variable and thus its rate of rise can be controlled. It was determined that large rates of pressure rise can significantly increase the mass burning flux of a laminar flame and that this modification becomes more pronounced at higher pressure and temperature conditions. Furthermore, it was shown that the development of ignition near a cold wall, for mixtures that exhibit negative temperature coefficient behavior, is very sensitive to rate of change of pressure. The near-wall ignition behavior was found also to be rather sensitive to the prevailing pressures and temperatures whose values control whether ignition will occur in the main-gas or within the thermal boundary layer.     

Experimental investigation on ammonia combustion behavior in a spark-ignition engine by means of laminar and turbulent expanding flames

Ammonia combustion appears as a meaningful way to retrieve stored amounts of excess variable renewable energy, and the spark-ignition (SI) engine has been proposed as a practical conversion system. The present work aims at elucidating the combustion characteristics of ammonia blends in engine-relevant turbulent conditions. To that end, laminar and turbulent flame experiments were conducted in a constant-volume vessel at engine-relevant conditions of 445 K and 0.54 MPa to assess the combustion behavior of ammonia/hydrogen/air, ammonia/methane/air and methane/hydrogen/air mixtures observed in an all-metal single-cylinder SI engine. Results show that the respective accelerating or decelerating effects of hydrogen or methane enrichment observed in the SI engine could not be sufficiently explained by the measured laminar burning velocities of the mixtures. Since the latter are very low, the studied combustion regimes are at the boundary between the thin and broken reaction zones regimes, and thus strongly influenced by flame-turbulence interactions. The quantification of the flame response to turbulence shows much higher effects for ammonia blends, than for methane-based fuels. The aforementioned opposite effects of ammonia enrichment with hydrogen or methane are observed on the turbulent burning velocity during the turbulent flame experiments and correlated to the thermochemical properties of the reactants and the flame sensitivity to stretch. The latter may explain an unexpected bending effect on the turbulent-to-laminar velocity ratio when increasing the hydrogen fraction in the ammonia/hydrogen blend. Nevertheless, a very good correlation of the turbulent velocity was found with the Karlovitz and Damköhler numbers, that suggests that ammonia combustion in SI engines may be described following the usual turbulent combustion models. This encourages further investigations on ammonia combustion for the optimization of practical systems, by means of dedicated experiments and numerical simulations.     

Detailed and simplified kinetic models of n-dodecane oxidation: The role of fuel cracking in aliphatic hydrocarbon combustion

A detailed kinetic model is proposed for the combustion of normal alkanes up to n-dodecane above 850 K. The model was validated against experimental data, including fuel pyrolysis in plug flow and jet-stirred reactors, laminar flame speeds, and ignition delay times behind reflected shock waves, with n-dodecane being the emphasis. Analysis of the computational results reveal that for a wide range of combustion conditions, the kinetics of fuel cracking to form smaller molecular fragments is fast and may be decoupled from the oxidation kinetics of the fragments. Subsequently, a simplified model containing a minimal set of 4 species and 20 reaction steps was developed to predict the fuel pyrolysis rate and product distribution. Combined with the base C₁-C₄ model, the simplified model predicts fuel pyrolysis rate and product distribution, laminar flame speeds, and ignition delays as close as the detailed reaction model.     

A three mixture fraction flamelet model for multi-stream laminar pulverized coal combustion

A three mixture fraction flamelet model is proposed for multi-stream laminar pulverized coal combustion. The technique of coordinate transformation is utilized to map the flamelet solutions from a unit pyramid space into a unit cubic space to improve the stability of the simulation. The validity of the three mixture fraction flamelet model was assessed on different configurations, including a laminar counterflow pulverized coal/methane flame and a laminar piloted pulverized coal jet flame. The flamelet predictions were compared to the reference results of the detailed chemistry solutions. For the counterflow flame, it was found that the flame temperature and major species mass fractions are correctly predicted by the three mixture fraction flamelet model. However, discrepancies are observed for combustion-mode-sensitive species such as CO and H₂ in the premixed combustion region. The thermo-chemical quantities in the char surface reaction zone cannot be correctly predicted if the mixing between the char off-gas stream and other streams is neglected. For the piloted jet flame, it was shown that the stable thermo-chemical variables can be correctly predicted at the upper and middle stream locations. However, at the downstream location, discrepancies can be observed in certain regions. Overall, the validity of the three mixture fraction flamelet model for multi-stream pulverized coal combustion is confirmed and its performance in turbulent pulverized coal combustion will be tested in future work.     

Development and validation of an n-dodecane skeletal mechanism for spray combustion applications

n-Dodecane is a promising surrogate fuel for diesel engine study because its physicochemical properties are similar to those of the practical diesel fuels. In the present study, a skeletal mechanism for n-dodecane with 105 species and 420 reactions was developed for spray combustion simulations. The reduction starts from the most recent detailed mechanism for n-alkanes consisting of 2755 species and 11,173 reactions developed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. An algorithm combining direct relation graph with expert knowledge (DRGX) and sensitivity analysis was employed for the present skeletal reduction. The skeletal mechanism was first extensively validated in 0-D and 1-D combustion systems, including auto-ignition, jet stirred reactor (JSR), laminar premixed flame and counter flow diffusion flame. Then it was coupled with well-established spray models and further validated in 3-D turbulent spray combustion simulations under engine-like conditions. These simulations were compared with the recent experiments with n-dodecane as a surrogate for diesel fuels. It can be seen that combustion characteristics such as ignition delay and flame lift-off length were well captured by the skeletal mechanism, particularly under conditions with high ambient temperatures. Simulations also captured the transient flame development phenomenon fairly well. The results further show that ignition delay may not be the only factor controlling the stabilisation of the present flames since a good match in ignition delay does not necessarily result in improved flame lift-off length prediction.     

The localised forced ignition and early stages of flame development in a turbulent planar jet

The localised forced ignition and the early stages of the subsequent flame propagation in a planar turbulent methane/air jet in ambient air have been simulated using Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) and a two-step chemical mechanism. Sixteen identical energy depositions events were simulated for four independent flow realisations at four different locations. The successful ignition and subsequent flame propagation have been found to be well correlated to the mean mixture fraction and flammability factor values of the energy deposition location. Furthermore, similarly to what has been observed in experiments, the early stages of flame development from the ignition kernel involved initial downstream convection of the kernel, followed by simultaneous radial expansion and downstream propagation and finally the upstream propagation of the flame base indicating the onset of flame stabilisation. The mixture composition and the scalar dissipation rate (SDR) values in the immediate vicinity of the ignitor have been identified to play key roles in determining the outcome of the external energy deposition, while the development of an edge flame structure propagating along the stoichiometric mixture fraction iso-surface was found to be necessary but not sufficient for the flame to propagate upstream. It has also been found that in the case of successful self-sustained burning, the edge flame was developing in low SDR regions, and that the most probable edge flame speed remains close to the theoretical laminar value irrespective of the flame development history. Finally, the mean flame speed of the edge flame elements propagating towards the nozzle exit has been found to be considerably greater than the unstrained laminar burning velocity. Thus, the edge flame, depending on its orientation with respect to the flow, is able to propagate upstream and initiate the onset of flame stabilisation.     

Characterization of the effects of pressure and hydrogen concentration on laminar burning velocities of methane–hydrogen–air mixtures

The aim of the present work was to characterize both the effects of pressure and of hydrogen addition on methane/air premixed laminar flames. The experimental setup consists of a spherical combustion chamber coupled to a classical shadowgraphy system. Flame pictures are recorded by a high speed camera. Global equivalence ratios were varied from 0.7 to 1.2 for the initial pressure range from 0.1 to 0.5 MPa. The mole fraction of hydrogen in the methane + hydrogen mixture was varied from 0 to 0.2. Experimental results were compared to calculations using a detailed chemical kinetic scheme (GRIMECH 3.0). First, the results for atmospheric laminar CH₄/air flames were compared to the literature. Very good agreements were obtained both for laminar burning velocities and for burned gas Markstein length. Then, increasing the hydrogen content in the mixture was found to be responsible for an increase in the laminar burning velocity and for a reduction of the flame dependence on stretch. Transport effects, through the reduction of the fuel Lewis number, play a role in reducing the sensitivity of the fundamental flame velocity to the stretch. Finally, when the pressure was increased, the laminar burning velocity decreased for all mixtures. The pressure domain was limited to 0.5 MPa due to the onset of instabilities at pressures above this value.     

LES/FGM investigation of ignition and flame structure in a gasoline partially premixed combustion engine

This paper presents a joint numerical and experimental study of the ignition process and flame structures in a gasoline partially premixed combustion (PPC) engine. The numerical simulation is based on a five-dimension Flamelet-Generated Manifold (5D-FGM) tabulation approach and large eddy simulation (LES). The spray and combustion process in an optical PPC engine fueled with a primary reference fuel (70% iso-octane, 30% n-heptane by volume) are investigated using the combustion model along with laser diagnostic experiments. Different combustion modes, as well as the dominant chemical species and elementary reactions involved in the PPC engines, are identified and visualized using Chemical Explosive Mode Analysis (CEMA). The results from the LES-FGM model agree well with the experiments regarding the onset of ignition, peak heat release rate and in-cylinder pressure. The LES-FGM model performs even better than a finite-rate chemistry model that integrates the full-set of chemical kinetic mechanism in the simulation, given that the FGM model is computationally more efficient. The results show that the ignition mode plays a dominant role in the entire combustion process. The diffusion flame mode is identified in a thin layer between the ultra fuel-lean unburned mixture and the hot burned gas region that contains combustion intermediates such as CO. The diffusion flame mode contributes to a maximum of 27% of the total heat release in the later stage of combustion, and it becomes vital for the oxidation of relatively fuel-lean mixtures.     

Turbulent flame speed and morphology of pure ammonia flames and blends with methane or hydrogen

Ammonia appears a promising hydrogen-energy carrier as well as a carbon-free fuel. However, there remain limited studies for ammonia combustion especially under turbulent conditions. To that end, using the spherically expanding flame configuration, the turbulent flame speeds of stoichiometric ammonia/air, ammonia/methane and ammonia/hydrogen were examined. The composition of blends studied are currently being investigated for gas turbine application and are evaluated at various turbulent intensities, covering different kinds of turbulent combustion regimes. Mie-scattering tomography was employed facilitating flame structure analysis. Results show that the flame propagation speed of ammonia/air increases exponentially with increasing hydrogen amount. It is less pronounced with increasing methane addition, analogous to the behavior displayed in the laminar regime. The turbulent to laminar flame speed ratio increases with turbulence intensity. However, smallest gains were observed at highest hydrogen content, presumably due to differences in the combustion regime, with the mixture located within the corrugated flamelet zone, with all other mixtures positioned within the thin reaction zone. A good correlation of the turbulent velocity based on the Karlovitz and Damköhler numbers is observable with the present dataset, as well as previous experimental measurements available in literature, suggesting that ammonia-based fuels may potentially be described following the usual turbulent combustion models. Flame morphology and stretch sensitivity analysis were conducted, revealing that flame curvature remains relatively similar for pure ammonia and ammonia-based mixtures. The wrinkling ratio is found to increase with both increasing ammonia fraction and turbulent intensity, in good agreement with measured increases in turbulent flame speed. On the other hand, in most cases, the flame stretch effect does not change significantly with increasing turbulence, whilst following a similar trend to that of the laminar Markstein length.     

On the experimental validation of combustion simulations in turbulent non-premixed jets

A Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) based combustion model, which incorporated the conditional source-term estimation (CSE) method for the closure of the chemical source term and the trajectory generated low-dimensional manifold (TGLDM) method for the reduction of detailed chemistry, was applied to predict the OH radical distribution in a combusting non-premixed methane jet. The results of the numerical prediction were compared with the results of a complementary experimental study in which the OH radical fields of combusting non-premixed methane jets were visualized using planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF). It is well known within the modelling community that RANS based models are unable to capture the stochastic nature of turbulent combustion and autoignition, and are therefore unable to predict individual realizations of the flame. In this study, the agreement between the predicted OH field and a well-converged ensemble average of the experimental results was also shown to be poor. The lack of agreement between the numerical results and the ensemble averaged experimental results expose the potential significance of the known weakness in the RANS method. A statistical analysis of the experimental results was also performed. The results of the analysis showed that a minimum of 100 individual realizations was required to provide a well-converged average OH field for the combusting non-premixed jet under investigation. The significance of this result with respect to the validation of large-eddy simulations (LES) of combusting jets is discussed.