中国股市跨行业动量效应和反转效应研究

动量效应和反转效应是两种重要的金融异象,质疑了有效市场假说。本文以2000～2009年的A股上市公司为研究样本,采用不同的形成期搭配不同的持有期下的投资策略考察了中国股市跨行业动量效应和反转效应。研究结论表明:在沪深A股市场,按下游行业收益率排序的零投资策略主要表现为动量效应,按上游行业收益率排序的零投资策略主要表现为反转效应。从短期来看,跨行业动量或反转效应普遍不显著。持有期中长时,结果的显著性明显提高。跨行业动量或反转效应通过CAPM、Fama-French、Carhart模型调整后仍然显著。     

关于经理人激励效果的模型研究

用一个激励效果衡量模型研究了企业管理中的人力资源激励管理,把激励手段分为激励效果因素和保健效果因素,指出了经理人激励管理中的关键因素并给出了基于模型分析的激励策略指导.     

The day-of-the-week effects on the volatility: The role of the asymmetry

In this paper, we propose to evaluate whether asymmetry influences the day-of-the-week effects on volatility. We also investigate empirically the impact of the day-of-the-week effect in major international stock markets using GARCH family models from a forecast framework. Indeed the existence of calendar effects might be interesting only if their incorporation in a model results in better volatility forecasts.     

Four Wave Mixing of the Signal and ASE Noisein Long Distance Optical Communication System

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Bayesian analysis of definitive screening designs when the response is nonnormal

Definitive screening designs (DSDs) are a class of experimental designs that allow the estimation of linear, quadratic, and interaction effects with little experimental effort if there is effect sparsity. The number of experimental runs is twice the number of factors of interest plus one. Many industrial experiments involve nonnormal responses. Generalized linear models (GLMs) are a useful alternative for analyzing these kind of data. The analysis of GLMs is based on asymptotic theory, something very debatable, for example, in the case of the DSD with only 13 experimental runs. So far, analysis of DSDs considers a normal response. In this work, we show a five‐step strategy that makes use of tools coming from the Bayesian approach to analyze this kind of experiment when the response is nonnormal. We consider the case of binomial, gamma, and Poisson responses without having to resort to asymptotic approximations. We use posterior odds that effects are active and posterior probability intervals for the effects and use them to evaluate the significance of the effects. We also combine the results of the Bayesian procedure with the lasso estimation procedure to enhance the scope of the method. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resonance effects in the field of a stationary electromagnetic wave and a constant magnetic field

We analyze the interaction of a charged relativistic particle with the electromagnetic field given by a superposition of a stationary wave and a constant magnetic field. The refraction coefficient of the medium is taken different from one. We investigate the problem in the low-signal approximation. To test the results, we used computer simulation of the original system with two scales of the variation rate of the variables taken into account.Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 142, No. 1, pp. 64–71, January, 2005.     

Subtraction-free renormalization of the quantum-field vacuum energy in the presence of nontrivial boundary conditions

We propose a subtraction-free method for calculating the quantum-field vacuum energy in the presence of nontrivial boundary conditions and logarithmically divergent terms caused by them. The method can also be used in the case where the energy levels of a system are known only numerically. Moreover, its use requires neither knowledge of the analytic form of equations for certain levels or a detailed analysis of their asymptotic behavior.Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 143, No. 1, pp. 49–63, April, 2005.     

中国对外直接投资的贸易效应研究:基于对北美自贸区、欧盟、东盟投资的比较分析

中国对外贸易发展成熟、国际地位显著,但从长期看,其边际收益呈现递减趋势.而对外直接投资虽规模较小,且尚在起步阶段,但其发展速度快、市场潜力巨大.在拓展Anderson和Wincoop模型基础上,理论分析了对外直接投资与贸易之间的关系.然后通过建立计量模型,利用1995-2011年面板数据进行固定模型分析.由于中国对外直接投资的贸易效应存在明显的区域性,以北美自贸区、欧盟和东盟作为研究对象,实证检验了中国对外直接投资与贸易的关系,旨在考察中国对三种不同类型区域一体化组织投资的贸易效应差异.研究结果表明,从长期看,中国对北美自由贸易区、欧盟和东盟投资均具有明显的贸易创造效应.这种贸易创造效应的大小依次是东盟欧盟北美自贸区.     

Using Spherical–Radial Quadrature to Fit Generalized Linear Mixed Effects Models

Although generalized linear mixed effects models have received much attention in the statistical literature, there is still no computationally efficient algorithm for computing maximum likelihood estimates for such models when there are a moderate number of random effects. Existing algorithms are either computationally intensive or they compute estimates from an approximate likelihood. Here we propose an algorithm—the spherical–radial algorithm—that is computationally efficient and computes maximum likelihood estimates. Although we concentrate on two-level, generalized linear mixed effects models, the same algorithm can be applied to many other models as well, including nonlinear mixed effects models and frailty models. The computational difficulty for estimation in these models is in integrating the joint distribution of the data and the random effects to obtain the marginal distribution of the data. Our algorithm uses a multidimensional quadrature rule developed in earlier literature to integrate the joint density. This article discusses how this rule may be combined with an optimization algorithm to efficiently compute maximum likelihood estimates. Because of stratification and other aspects of the quadrature rule, the resulting integral estimator has significantly less variance than can be obtained through simple Monte Carlo integration. Computational efficiency is achieved, in part, because relatively few evaluations of the joint density may be required in the numerical integration.     

On the infimum problem of Hilbert space effects

The quantum effects for a physical system can be described by the set ε(H) of positive operators on a complex Hilbert space H that are bounded above by the identity operator I. The infimum problem of Hilbert space effects is to find under what condition the infimum A∧B exists for two quantum effects A and B∈ε(H). The problem has been studied in different contexts by R. Kadison, S. Gudder, M. Moreland, and T. Ando. In this note, using the method of the spectral theory of operators, we give a complete answer of the infimum problem. The characterizations of the existence of infimum A∧B for two effects A. B∈ε(H) are established.     

Key Player Policies When Contextual Effects Matter

We consider a model where the criminal decision of each individual is affected by not only her own characteristics, but also by the characteristics of her friends (contextual effects). We determine who the key player is, i.e., the criminal who once removed generates the highest reduction in total crime in the network. We propose a new measure, the contextual intercentrality measure, that generalizes the one proposed by Ballester, Calvó-Armengol, and Zenou (2006 Ballester , C. , Calvó-Armengol , A. , &; Zenou , Y. ( 2006 ). Who's who in networks. Wanted: The key player . Econometrica , 74 , 1403 – 1417 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the change in contextual effects following the removal of the key player. We also provide an example showing that the key player can be different whether contextual effects are taken into account or not. This means that the planner may target the wrong person if it ignores the effect of the “context” when removing a criminal from a network.     

On the Positive Definiteness of the Information Matrix Under the Binary and Poisson Mixed Models

Binary and Poisson generalized linear mixed models are used to analyse over/under-dispersed proportion and count data, respectively. As the positive definiteness of the information matrix is a required property for valid inference about the fixed regression vector and the variance components of the random effects, this paper derives the relevant necessary and sufficient conditions under both these models. It is found that the conditions for the positive definiteness are not identical for these two nonlinear mixed models and that a mere analogy with the usual linear mixed model does not dictate these conditions.     

Creating a suite of macros for meta-analysis in SAS: A case study in collaboration

A series of macros that have been created to perform fixed and random effects meta-analysis in SAS^® are described as is the motivation for their creation. These macros are being made freely available on the internet for others to use. The application of the macros is illustrated using an example of trials in pre-eclampsia.     

Kernel density in the study of the strong stability of the queueing system

We use kernel density with correction of boundary effects to study the strong stability of the M/M/1 system after perturbation of arrival flow (respectively service times), to evaluate the proximity of G/M/1 (respectively M/G/1) and M/M/1 systems when the distribution G is unknown. Simulation studies are performed to support the results.     

金融市场波动性的拟合分析

金融市场的波动性是投资者关注的对象之一,也是被研究的热点。本文检验了我国股市的ARCH效应和序列相关性。并且在此基础上,将AR-IGARCH-M模型应用于上海综指和深圳成指,结果表明该模型能有效拟合我国深沪两股市的波动性。最后,针对结果分析了我国的股市行为。     

制造业企业影子银行化对企业升级影响研究

本文采用2011~2018年上市制造业企业数据,选用基于B-样条展开的非参数分位数模型实证研究影子银行化对企业升级的非线性异质影响,结果发现:(1)企业影子银行化对企业升级影响的拟合曲线具有非线性特征,大致呈“倒U形”,说明企业影子银行活动存在最有效规模;(2)位于不同分位点企业影子银行化存在显著异质性,表现为:企业层级水平越高,拟合曲线曲率越大,即敏感度越高,影子银行活动的最有效规模越低;(3)产权性质不同的企业影子银行化最优规模也存在异质性,非国有企业最优点高于国有企业,并且低分位点非国有企业主要表现促进作用;(4)适度的影子银行活动会缓解企业面临的融资约束和促进企业创新投资从而有利于企业升级,而过度的影子银行活动则会加强融资约束不利于企业升级。     

牛鞭效应弱化与反牛鞭效应强化在完美信息下联合作用的博弈

在供应链运作过程中,同时存在牛鞭效应与反牛鞭效,若仅考虑到供应链的成本、需求偏差等问题,这种存在会因有限理性的驱使使得牛鞭效应弱化与反牛鞭效应强化.因此,认为供应链的上下游在周期内会表现出牛鞭效应弱化与反牛鞭效应强化的联合作用,联合作用使得单个企业达到低平均库存成本,也意味着供应链的整体库存最低且整体市场需求偏差最低,间接地、自动地从整体上消除牛鞭效应或反牛鞭效应,使得整条供应链不管是短期的还是长期来看是最佳的,若是长期,还会给供应链企业带来显著的战略优势.     

基于溢出效应与平台服务的竞争网络平台的销售模式研究

网络平台竞争与发展成为平台运营理论与实践的关键问题,急需解决。本文应用博弈论研究存在溢出效应和网络平台竞争环境下平台服务内生的网络平台销售模式选择,即网络平台商是允许制造商在其网络平台上直销产品的平台销售模式,还是网络平台商先从制造商购买产品再销售给消费者的转销模式。主要研究竞争网络平台的三种结构模型:双转销模式、双平台销售模式和混合模式。研究结果显示:网络平台商的利润随正溢出效应增加而增加,随负溢出效应增加而减少。当网络平台服务敏感程度较高且网络平台竞争较为激烈时,两个网络平台商均选择平台销售模式,形成占优均衡;此时,网络平台商获得最高利润,而且网络零售价和网络平台服务水平最高。     

半参数混合效应模型中的估计及其强相合性

将Tao等(1999)提出的线性混合效应模型推广为半参数混合效应模型,给出了模型参数、回归函数和随机效应密度的估计,并研究了估计的强相合性及部分强相合速度.统计模拟表明我们给出的估计方法是可行的.