一种求解多层多目标系统非劣决策的实用算法

本文基于反馈系统理论知识 ,提出了求解多层多目标决策系统的非劣决策的一种实用算法 ,此算法是对求解单层多目标决策系统非劣解的加权法的推广     

基于两层对策系统的编队协同对地攻防对抗决策分析研究

基于学者Cruz建立的军事对抗的动态、离散的状态空间模型,在两层Stackelber-Nash决策方法的基础上,针对编队协同对地攻击的攻防对抗系统的强对抗性、多目标性和多层次性,建立了两层对策系统——Nash-Stackelberg-Nash决策模型,着重解决军事对抗中的多层次对抗决策问题.将该决策方法应用于Cruz建立的基本战场想定,并将单决策层的Nash对抗决策与两层对策系统的Nash-Stackelberg-Nash决策方法进行了对比,仿真结果表明该决策方法相对单层Nash对抗决策有明显改进,并为作战对抗提供了有力的战场分析依据.     

灰色系统理论在多目标施工方案决策中的应用研究

文章分析了影响建设项目施工方案的主要因素,通过对灰局势决策理论的研究建立了建设项目施工方案的决策模型.并进行了实证研究,提供了灰色理论在建设项目施工决策中的应用方法.     

复杂随机系统的生存性问题研究

为了刻画复杂随机系统的理性决策,提出了复杂随机系统的生存性及不变性的概念,给出并证明了复杂随机系统的生存性定理及不变性定理.并提出了均方相依锥,生存域与不变域的概念.得到了与文献中的一致的结论.     

基于模糊影响图与D-S证据理论的多属性群决策方法

针对影响因素复杂的总体评价问题,提出了一种多属性群决策方法。该方法通过模糊影响图构建多层决策模型,利用模糊关系矩阵传递专家的意见,利用证据理论集结专家意见。该决策方法利用属性间客观存在的模糊关系进行决策,不需要确定决策属性的权重。实例分析表明,本方法可行,有利于降低决策信息的不确定程度。     

基于灰色局势决策的采煤工艺评价与选择

采煤工艺的评价与选择是一个多目标规划,煤矿生产条件具有复杂性,地下工程具有信息不完备性,为避免受到人为主观因素的影响,能够对采煤工艺的选择提供客观评价的依据,采用灰色局势决策的方法,建立多目标综合决策矩阵,计算综合效果测度进行决策,评价结果与模糊综合评价法、灰色聚类法和灰色关联分析法相比较基本一致,灰色局势决策的方法较传统方法更精确,更有效,该方法在决策矿业工程中信息不完备问题时,具有一定的参考价值和指导意义.     

基于综合偏差-关联测度矩阵的灰色局势决策

针对三参数区间灰数信息下的多目标局势决策问题中的权重确定方法进行了探讨.通过分析偏差测度矩阵和灰关联测度矩阵的区别和联系,提出了综合偏差-关联测度矩阵,给出了灰色局势决策中目标权重确定的两种方法.最后通过实例验证了两种方法的有效性和可行性.     

基于招投标博弈报价策略分析

运用博弈论的理论和方法分析在招投标报价决策过程,对不完全信息下投标工程投标报价、竞标过程来确定自身的动态评判标准,采用概率模型的投标报价,并对这种博弈局势进行了定量剖析,给出招投标决策满意报价的解析结果.     

油库选址决策的二层优化模型研究

油库物流设施的选址决策属于战略管理层的决策,它是整个物流系统运作的基础.油库的选址决策是库存和运输决策的基础,库存决策和运输决策则是在整个油品配送系统规划框架内对油库选址决策的完善和延伸.如何进行科学的油库选址是企业所关心的问题.本文将在考虑影响选址的定性成本因素以及运营过程中的非成本因素、定性和定量相结合的基础上利用多层决策理论,将油库选址问题归结为一个二层优化模型,并提出了确定理想选址区域和可行点的相关方法的计算方法.数值实验表明该算法是可行的.本文的结论对实际决策问题具有一定的借鉴作用.     

基于多元价值目标的重大复杂工程评价研究

重大复杂工程是推动高质量发展的“牛鼻子”。本文提出了重大复杂工程全寿命周期评价的经济、社会、自然、科技、文化和人才六元价值目标体系,并对其产生机制以及与利益主体和全寿命周期的关系进行了理论分析。进而依据复杂系统理论,从作业系统层、系统层和包括外部环境的超系统层视角,构建了重大复杂工程全寿命周期多元价值目标评价的理论框架。依托该框架,以港珠澳大桥工程为例进行了初步的应用研究。本文研究丰富了重大复杂工程的评价理论,同时为重大工程管理实践提供理论指导和借鉴。     

排序在车间生产管理中的应用

本文结合上海第一机床厂的实际，论述建立车间生产调度决策支持系统的必要性，详细阐明这个决策支持系统的设计原理与系统结构，并介绍开发的相应软件系统的特点和功能及排序论的研究成果在其中的应用．     

基于改进的GRA-PDEA模型的应急系统优化选址

从应急系统优化选址的实践需求出发,构建了多输入/多输出、多种数据类型的决策指标体系,给出了针对成本/效益指标的区间型、模糊型属性值的规范化处理模型,得到各备选方案的指标属性值规范化矩阵.采用了带决策者偏好的数据包络分析模型进行优化选址决策,体现了在应急系统优化选址问题中应注重的相对有效性决策策略,同时引入基于灰色关联分析的定权模型,使决策过程既发挥决策者的主观能动性,又规避其主观臆断.通过给出备选方案的实证分析,较好地实现了应急系统优化选址的目的,选址结果与实际情况也是相吻合的.     

Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method

Despite the development of a large number of refined multicriterion decision aid (MCDA) methods, none can be considered as the `super method' appropriate to all decision making situations. Hence, how can one choose an appropriate method to a specific decision situation? Recent experimental studies in psychology and behaviour have revealed, on the one hand, that the human thinking is not to be modelled by logical rules and calculations, and, on the other hand, that the response mode affects the preference formation as well as the use of compensatory or noncompensatory strategies. The aim of this paper is to draw a conceptual framework for articulating tentative guidelines to choose an appropriate MCDA method. This paper also presents the results of the comparison of well known multicriterion aggregation procedures (MCAP) on the basis of these guidelines. In our opinion this study can constitute a first step for proposing a methodological approach to select an appropriate MCDA method to a specific decision making situation. Such an approach should be validated and may be integrated into a decision support system. Moreover, the framework suggested is helpful to develop useful methods and to address neglected issues within the field.     

A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

This paper proposes a multi-stage framework for intelligent decision support. The proposed framework integrates case-based reasoning and fuzzy multicriteria decision making techniques. It potentially leads to more accurate, flexible and efficient retrieval of alternatives that are most similar and most useful to the current decision situation. Additionally, the framework provides intelligent assistance in articulating domain expert's preferences through outranking relations. We illustrated the proposed approach in the context of tropical cyclone prediction. Ten years of historical observation data about tropical cyclones was represented within fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problem. We describe a prototype intelligent decision support system, which helps the forecaster in retrieving best-fitted solutions in terms of both usefulness and similarity to the current observed case.     

On the incorporation of adversarial reasoning in course of action analysis and resource allocation

Course of Action analysis and Resource Management are concerned with the allocation of resources over time to effect desired actions as a result of the perceived situation awareness. Decision Support Systems provide automated recommended courses of action to decision makers, considering relevant resource capabilities and constraints. Incorporating potential adversary actions and reactions to the current course of action decision (and the resources effecting the actions) in the decision making process will make the decision support system more robust and increase confidence that the recommended decisions are appropriate responses to the unfolding situations. We discuss research results from the inclusion of possible adversary actions and reactions into the course of action/resource allocation decision making framework. The overall decision problem is formulated as a multi-stage mathematical program. As the problem is NP-hard, an heuristic is developed through a natural problem decomposition. Simulated results show the effectiveness of the heuristic in producing good-quality solutions in an efficient manner.     

考虑最优广告费用及数量折扣的供应链企业间的博弈分析

主要研究由一个制造商和一个销售商组成的二级供应链系统,在随机需求下,考虑广告促销及数量折扣前后,双方如何博弈,如何决策的问题.在制造商Stackelberg策略下,对供应链协调价进行了分析,提供了制造商制定数量折扣策略的思路.     

Comparison of fuzzy and crisp systems via system dynamics simulation

This paper compares fuzzy and classical decision rules. The hypothesis of this paper is that whether one of these rules is superior depends on the situation. For that comparison the paper uses system dynamics (SD), which models the behavior of systems including human beings. This comparison was made for a simple heating system that is controlled by a human operator. Under various changes of external and internal parameters, the results are that the major differences between fuzzy and crisp systems emerge at extreme values of these parameters. In conclusion, the superiority of crisp rules or fuzzy rules in a decision-making environment depends on the situation.     

Leader-follower strategy via a sliding mode approach

In this paper, the decision making problem in continuoustime dynamic systems is considered for the situation with two decision makers and a hierarchical decision structure. The leader-follower strategy is studied. To implement the leader's strategy, we propose to use a sliding mode approach, which allows the leader to constrain the state of the system within some manifold of the state space and forces the follower to choose the strategy preferable for the leader. The corresponding sliding manifolds are derived from the classical variational problem formulation for a class of systems whose right-hand side is affine with respect to the two control inputs. Numerical examples are considered with simulations to illustrate the technique.The authors wish to express their thanks to Dr. Vadim Utkin for his helpful discussions.     

Model and extended Kuhn–Tucker approach for bilevel multi-follower decision making in a referential-uncooperative situation

When multiple followers are involved in a bilevel decision problem, the leader’s decision will be affected, not only by the reactions of these followers, but also by the relationships among these followers. One of the popular situations within this bilevel multi-follower issue is where these followers are uncooperatively making their decisions while having cross reference to decision information of the other followers. This situation is called a referential-uncooperative situation in this paper. The well-known Kuhn–Tucker approach has been previously successfully applied to a one-leader-and-one-follower linear bilevel decision problem. This paper extends this approach to deal with the above-mentioned linear referential-uncooperative bilevel multi-follower decision problem. The paper first presents a decision model for this problem. It then proposes an extended Kuhn–Tucker approach to solve this problem. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the application of the extended Kuhn–Tucker approach.