基于便利收益的商品期货套期保值策略研究

依据便利收益是商品现货与期货长期均衡关系的主要影响因素,研究商品便利收益对商品期货套期保值策略的影响。通过求解最大化期望效用的套期保值决策模型,得到了最优套期保值比率的封闭解,并且提出了以便利收益为修正因子的ECT-GARCH模型,同时选取2005年01月到2013年10月期间沪铝现货和期货数据进行实证分析。研究发现:便利收益的波动性与套期保值比率呈负相关,在套期保值比率估计精度和套期保值绩效方面,ECT-GARCH模型均优于B-GARCH模型和ECM-GARCH模型。     

Static Hedging with Uncertain Quantity and Departure from the Cost-of-Carry Valuation

In this paper, we are concerned with the optimal hedge ratio under quantity risk as well as discrepancies between the futures market price and its theoretical valuation according to the cost- of-carry model. Assuming a geometric Brownian motion for forecasting process, we model mispricing as a specific noise corn poncnt in the dynamics of filturcs market prices, based on which the optimal hedging strategy is calculated. Finally, we illustrate optimal strategy and its properties by numerical examples.     

Supply chain network equilibrium with strategic financial hedging using futures

In this paper, we develop a network equilibrium model for supply chain networks with strategic financial hedging. We consider multiple competing firms that purchase multiple materials and parts to manufacture their products. The supply chain firms’ procurement activities are exposed to commodity price risk and exchange rate risk. The firms can use futures contracts to hedge the risks. Our research studies the equilibrium of the entire network where each firm optimizes its own operation and hedging decisions. We use variational inequality theory to formulate the equilibrium model, and provide qualitative properties. We provide analytical results for a special case with duopolistic competition, and use simulations to study an oligopolistic case. The analytical and simulation studies reveals interesting managerial insights.     

考虑结算风险的套期保值研究

期货市场的风险转移功能主要通过套期保值策略来实现,期货市场套期保值的关键问题是套期保值比率的确定。现有套期保值研究侧重于规避价格风险,忽略了期货市场另一个重要的风险因素-结算风险。本文通过建立考虑结算风险的期货套期保值决策模型,有效地平衡了套期保值过程中的价格风险与结算风险。具体特色一是将套保者的结算风险厌恶态度直接反映到套期比的计算中,体现了结算风险对套期保值决策的影响;二是在一定条件下,本模型的套期比趋近于最小方差套期比;三是利用ARMA时间序列方法预测期货与现货的价格走势,有效地反映了期货价格一阶平稳和季节性变化规律,使估计的套期比更加精确可靠。     

期货套期保值最大概率与最小风险分析

研究套期保值的最大概率和最小风险问题 ,导出最大概率的套期比和最小风险的套期比 ,并且说明它们是一致的 .因此 ,所得到的套期比具有最大概率和最小风险这两大优点 .使投资者用这样的套期比进行套期保值 ,就可以最大概率保证其收益 ,并且使其风险最小 .     

Robust strategies for natural gas procurement

In order to serve their customers, natural gas local distribution companies (LDCs) can select from a variety of financial and non-financial contracts. The present paper is concerned with the choice of an appropriate portfolio of natural gas purchases that would allow a LDC to satisfy its demand with a minimum tradeoff between cost and risk, while taking into account risk associated with modeling error. We propose two types of strategies for natural gas procurement. Dynamic strategies model the procurement problem as a mean-risk stochastic program with various risk measures. Naive strategies hedge a fixed fraction of winter demand. The hedge is allocated equally between storage, futures and options. We propose a simulation framework to evaluate the proposed strategies and show that: (i) when the appropriate model for spot prices and its derivatives is used, dynamic strategies provide cheaper gas with low risk compared to naive strategies. (ii) In the presence of a modeling error, dynamic strategies are unable to control the variance of the procurement cost though they provide cheaper cost on average. Based on these results, we define robust strategies as convex combinations of dynamic and naive strategies. The weight of each strategy represents the fraction of demand to be satisfied following this strategy. A mean–variance problem is then solved to obtain optimal weights and construct an efficient frontier of robust strategies that take advantage of the diversification effect.     

期货套期保值C VaR风险的敏感度分析

把条件风险价值应用于期货组合套期保值的风险管理,分析条件风险价值对期货部位的敏感性.在一般的概率分布下,分空头套期保值和多头套期保值两种情况,导出期货组合套期保值的条件风险价值关于套期比的一阶和二阶变化率,并研究其经济意义.投资者可以根据条件风险价值的敏感度增减期货头寸,把握好用于套期保值的期货量,帮助投资者管理套期保值风险.     

The natural hedge of a gas-fired power plant

Electricity industries worldwide have been restructured in order to introduce competition. As a result, decision makers are exposed to volatile electricity prices, which are positively correlated with those of natural gas in markets with price-setting gas-fired power plants. Consequently, gas-fired plants are said to enjoy a “natural hedge.” We explore the properties of such a built-in hedge for a gas-fired power plant via a stochastic programming approach, which enables characterisation of uncertainty in both electricity and gas prices in deriving optimal hedging and generation decisions. The producer engages in financial hedging by signing forward contracts at the beginning of the month while anticipating uncertainty in spot prices. Using UK energy price data from 2006 to 2011 and daily aggregated dispatch decisions of a typical gas-fired power plant, we find that such a producer does, in fact, enjoy a natural hedge, i.e., it is better off facing uncertain spot prices rather than locking in its generation cost. However, the natural hedge is not a perfect hedge, i.e., even modest risk aversion makes it optimal to use gas forwards partially. Furthermore, greater operational flexibility enhances this natural hedge as generation decisions provide a countervailing response to uncertainty. Conversely, higher energy-conversion efficiency reduces the natural hedge by decreasing the importance of natural gas price volatility and, thus, its correlation with the electricity price.     

Hedging effectiveness of stock index futures

The paper is concerned with the efficiency of hedging stock portfolios using futures stock indices covering the period January 1995–December 2001. The hedged portfolios consisted of the assets of seventeen investment companies quoted on the London Stock Exchange and two portfolios, which were assumed to match exactly the corresponding cash index. Two futures indices were used to hedge the funds namely FTSE100 and FTSE250 futures indices which are quoted on LIFFE. Weekly observations were used providing 365 observations for each variable.The total sample was split into two sections. The first 261 observations were used to estimate the optimal hedge ratio (i.e. the in-sample period) providing 260 returns for each variable and the remaining 104 (i.e. the post-sample period) observations utilised to check the efficiency of the estimated hedge ratio. In addition a second estimation window was tried using the last 30 observations of the in-sample period. A variety of methods were tried to estimate the optimal hedge ratio including ordinary least squares (OLS), methods allowing for the existence of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, and an Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA).The general conclusions reached were that for the portfolios within the data set (i) that the EWMA method of estimation provided the best estimate of the optimal hedge (ii) the shorter estimation window was no more efficient than the longer window and (ii) the FTESE250 futures index was the best hedging vehicle for these portfolios.     

Optimal crop planting schedules and financial hedging strategies under ENSO-based climate forecasts

This paper investigates the impact of ENSO-based climate forecasts on optimal planting schedules and financial yield-hedging strategies in a framework focused on downside risk. In our context, insurance and futures contracts are available to hedge against yield and price risks, respectively. Furthermore, we adopt the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) measure to assess downside risk, and Gaussian copula to simulate scenarios of correlated non-normal random yields and prices. The resulting optimization problem is a mixed 0?C1 integer programming formulation that is solved efficiently through a two-step procedure, first through an equivalent linear form by disjunctive constraints, followed by decomposition into sub-problems identified by hedging strategies. With data for a representative cotton producer in the Southeastern United States, we conduct a study that considers a wide variety of optimal planting schedules and hedging strategies under alternative risk profiles for each of the three ENSO phases (Niña, Niño, and Neutral.) We find that the Neutral phase generates the highest expected profit with the lowest downside risk. In contrast, the Niña phase is associated with the lowest expected profit and the highest downside risk. Additionally, yield-hedging insurance strategies are found to vary significantly, depending critically on the ENSO phase and on the price bias of futures contracts.     

期货市场中持仓量及参与者对资产价格的影响研究

本文通过建立一个期货市场的均衡模型,提出在具有套保需求和有限风险承受能力的前提下,期货价格能够预测未来资产价格变动的方向,持仓量能够辅助预测未来资产价格变动的剧烈程度;此外,市场中不知情投机者具有风险调整市场收益的作用,不知情套保者的参与能够稳定市场。对于持仓量是否能够辅助预测未来资产价格变动的剧烈程度,本文利用中国商品期货市场数据进行了实证检验,结果表明与理论研究的结论一致。     

股指期货考虑套期保值成本时的套期保值比率研究

所谓股指期货,就是以某种股票指数为标的物的金融期货合约.它同时具有股票与期货的特性,是组合投资者规避系统风险的重要金融衍生工具.针对股指期货,在考虑套期保值成本的前提下,利用套利和CAPM模型给出最优套期保值比率的计算公式.这将在一定的程度上,提高了计算的准确性,并且减少计算的工作量.     

带有风险价值的最优期货套期保值策略

本文研究了带有风险价值约束的期货套期保值优化问题.用最优化方法获得了套期保值策略的存在性、求解模型的增广拉格朗日算法及其收敛性.文中的结果推广了期货收益率服从正态分布的单变量套期保值策略的研究,表现为用服从椭圆分布的随机变量刻画市场风险因子的厚尾特征、用风险价值控制套期保值的风险、构建了均值-VaR组合套期保值理论模型并给出了求解算法.     

协整关系对期货套期保值策略的影响

经过研究发现 ,在有效市场中 ,现货和期货价格间存在着协整关系 ,而我们在实际的操作中 ,经常忽略这种关系 ,本文通过对相关模型的推导 ,给出了考虑与不考虑两种情况下的套期保值比率的公式 ,以分析说明协整关系对套期保值策略的影响     

期权组合最优套期保值模型及实证研究

根据实际投资中投资者可以选择不同到期日、不同敲定价格的期权组合进行套期保值的现实,本文建立了二次效用函数下期权组合最优动态套期保值模型,证明了该模型最优解存在的唯一性,并在协方差矩阵可逆和不可逆两种情形下分别给出了期权最优头寸的显式表达式。在50ETF价格先升后降、先降后升、下降和上升四种情形下,对上证50ETF期权的多种期权组合套期保值问题进行实证分析。研究结果表明:不同到期日不同敲定价格的看跌期权组合具有较好的套期保值效果。本文的研究为选择期权组合进行套期保值和解决展期期权套期保值问题提供了借鉴。     

基于高频数据的中国国债期货价格发现能力研究

期货的价格发现能力是近几年国际学术界关注的热点问题,但目前理论界相关研究主要集中于商品期货和股指期货,尚缺乏专门针对中国国债期货价格发现方面的研究。随着中国5年期国债期货于2013年9月上市交易,深入研究中国市场结构下的国债期货价格发现能力有助于从微观视角掌握与其它期货品种内在运行规律的差异性。本文运用中国5年期国债期货上市交易后的5分钟高频数据,采取向量误差修正(VECM)模型和Granger因果关系检验等计量分析方法检验中国国债期货与现货价格之间的关系,并创新性地使用共同因子贡献法和信息份额法分析我国国债期货市场与现货市场对价格发现功能的贡献程度。结果表明,中国国债期货价格与现货价格之间存在长期协整关系。中国国债期货价格是现货价格的Granger成因,且两者之间存在单向的价格引导关系。同时通过实证得出中国国债期货市场在对价格发现的贡献程度上占主导地位的结论。     

A portfolio approach to managing procurement risk using multi-stage stochastic programming

Procurement is a critical supply chain management function that is susceptible to risk, due mainly to uncertain customer demand and purchase price volatility. A procurement approach in the form of a portfolio that incorporates the common procurement means is proposed. Such means include long-term contracts, spot procurements and option-based supply contracts. The objective is to explore possible synergies among the various procurement means, and so be able to produce optimal or near optimal results in profit while mitigating risk. The implementation of the portfolio approach is based on a multi-stage stochastic programming model in which replenishment decisions are made at various stages along a time horizon, with replenishment quantities being determined by simultaneously considering the stochastic demand and the price volatility of the spot market. The model attempts to minimise the risk exposure of procurement decisions measured as conditional value-at-risk. Numerical experiments to test the effectiveness of the proposed model are performed using demand data from a large air conditioner manufacturer in China and price volatility data from the Shanghai steel market. The results indicate that the proposed model can fairly reliably outperform other approaches, especially when either the demand and/or prices exhibit significant variability.     

基于Copula-ECM-GARCH模型的农产品期货套期保值绩效研究

Copula函数具有可以准确刻画变量间的相依结构、精准描述金融时间序列"尖峰厚尾"分布特点的良好统计性质.针对传统计量模型在计算套期保值比率时存在的局限性,利用Copula函数描述变量的尾部相关性,并结合ECM-GARCH模型,对大豆、小麦、玉米三种国内农产品期货进行套期保值研究,分别计算最优的套期保值比率及其绩效,并与OLS、B-VAR、ECM和ECM-GARCH模型进行比较.结果表明,对于大豆来说,运用Copula-ECM-GARCH模型计算得到的套期保值比率进行对冲操作,可以最大化降低现货市场的价格风险,为投资者提供了一种可以更好规避价格风险的工具选择.     

Risk management of a bond portfolio using options

In this paper, we elaborate a formula for determining the optimal strike price for a bond put option, used to hedge a position in a bond. This strike price is optimal in the sense that it minimizes, for a given budget, either Value-at-Risk or Tail Value-at-Risk. Formulas are derived for both zero-coupon and coupon bonds, which can also be understood as a portfolio of bonds. These formulas are valid for any short rate model that implies an affine term structure model and in particular that implies a lognormal distribution of future zero-coupon bond prices. As an application, we focus on the Hull-White one-factor model, which is calibrated to a set of cap prices. We illustrate our procedure by hedging a Belgian government bond, and take into account the possibility of divergence between theoretical option prices and real option prices. This paper can be seen as an extension of the work of Ahn and co-workers [Ahn, D., Boudoukh, J., Richardson, M., Whitelaw, R., 1999. Optimal risk management using options. J. Financ. 54, 359-375], who consider the same problem for an investment in a share.     

基于Copula函数的我国股指期货风险及套期保值实证研究

运用SJC-Copula-GJR模型,计算了持有沪深300股指期货多头和空头两种组合的VaR值和最优投资比例,模型的特点是能够准确地描述尾部相关关系,且其对尾部相关性的描述是非对称的,所得结论为投资者进行风险管理提供了可靠的依据.同时,通过构造加权的非线性相关系数来计算沪深300股指期货最优套期保值比率,解决了分布非正态、期货与现货非线性的问题,准确地度量了股指期货收益率序列的动态相依关系,实证研究表明基于Copula函数的套期保值有效性明显地优于传统模型.