多指标可加模型及在医疗费用预测中的应用

对医疗费用的建模分析与合理预测是医疗保险费用厘定的基础与根本.医疗费用中的高维附加信息在长期预测中具有重要作用.然而,传统的统计建模方法不适用于处理高维纵向数据下的医疗费用.本文提出部分线性多指标可加模型,对具有高维特征的纵向医疗费用数据进行拟合与预测,并且使用两种不同的降维估计方法进行模型估计,并将该模型应用于一组含...     

相依风险条件下的医疗费用预测模型及其应用

在医疗费用的预测中,通常假设门诊费用与住院费用相互独立,事实上它们之间往往存在一定的相依关系。它们的相依性可以通过Copula函数来描述。在已知医疗费用发生的条件下,假设门诊费用和住院费用分别服从伽玛分布、逆高斯分布、对数正态分布和GB2分布,可以建立门诊费用与住院费用相互依赖的Copula回归模型。本文将此模型应用于一组实际的医疗费用数据,结果表明,考虑相依关系的回归模型要优于独立假设下的医疗费用预测模型。     

赴美IPO再认识

近期，大量中国在美国上市企业遭遇诉讼和退市风潮。如何看待这个问题？其间蕴藏着何种风险？如何规避中国企业的海外上市风险？这涉及到对美国资本市场的结构和规则的理解，对上市流程和中介机构的再认识。 美国证券市场的层次美国的证券市场粗略地可分为主板市场和柜台交易市场（OTC）。前者为纽约证券交易所和美国证券交易所（后来二者合并，统称为纽约交易所），广义的美国OFC市场包括NASDAQ、     

基于变异源分析的单病种费用和住院时间控制研究

单病种付费作为一种新的医疗费用支付方式,将成为提高医疗质量,控制医疗费用,加强医院管理的有效途径.由于单病种费用影响因素多、变异大,阻碍了单病种的实施与推广。针对这一问题,本文引入变异源分析,对某三级医院肺炎单病种住院费用和住院时间进行分析,找出主要变异源.在此基础上建立(?)控制图,对单病种住院费用和住院时间进行控制.与传统的(?)控制图相比,此方法可以有效地解决虚发警报过高的问题,降低医院运营风险,对单病种付费的实施和推广具有重要的意义。     

经济政策不确定性与数字货币市场波动影响研究——基于比特币市场的实证分析

本文运用混频模型(GARCH-MIDAS)实证研究了全球和7个国家的经济政策不确定性指标(EPU)对比特币市场的波动率影响。样本内结果表明,全球和七个国家的EPU指数对未来比特币市场波动率有显著的影响,EPU在样本内能提升比特币波动率的预测效果,且美国和澳大利亚的EPU与比特币市场波动率呈正相关,其余EPU与之呈负相关。然后运用模型置信集合(MCS)样本外检验发现,美国经济政策不确定性指标相比其他EPU指标更能提高对比特币市场波动率的预测精度。进一步指出,了解全球以及七国经济政策不确定性对数字货币市场的影响,有助于监管机构和政策制定者判断数字货币市场的未来走向,从而防范数字货币市场引发的金融风险。     

TOBIT模型在医疗费用研究中的应用

对一般人群进行医疗费用调查研究时,会存在有相当一部分人的医疗费用支出为零,以此作为因变量使用经典的线性回归进行统计建模时将会导致估计值的偏差。本文尝试使用Tobit模型及其半参数估计方法解决因变量存在大量零删失数据的问题,通过对太原市城镇居民医疗费用相关影响因素调查数据的实证分析,用以为医疗费用控制和医疗保险制度改革提供更有效的统计学方法支持和政策依据。     

我国医疗费用增长与医疗设备投入的相关性研究

近年来我国卫生总费用占GDP的比例增长很快,而在卫生费用结构上则发生政府投入下降和个人支出的上升。本文采集了大量的统计数据,采用统计相关性研究的方法,论证了医疗设备规模的不断扩大是导致医疗费用上升的主要因素之一;医疗设备的快速增长与医院维修费用投入的增长直接相关,而引起医疗设备维修大量投入的主要原因则是故障期内医疗设备的非正常闲置。本文通过对个人卫生费用的上升、医疗设备规模的扩大及其医疗设备维修投入费用增加相关性的分析,说明了在这种关系下,十分有必要研究医院医疗设备维修体系,以在卫生投入和患者权益上达到平衡。     

艾滋病治疗综效的评价和预测

本文利用美国艾滋病医疗试验机构ACTG的临床试验小组193A研究中的一组数据为样本,以10g(cd4+1)和治疗费用作为艾滋病治疗综效评价的指标,对疗法一的不同患者相同治疗时间的综合评价值平均得到平均治疗综效周时间序列,在此基础上建立ARIMA(3,1,1)模型,并做15周的外延预测。结果表明,模型有非常好的拟合和预测效果,治疗费用使欠发达地区的治疗综效有明显的下降趋势,约在第45周后直线下降,说明患者的病情此时得以很好的控制。     

公共服务的市场接近效应及其对要素空间集聚（扩散）的影响

在“两区域、两要素和两部门”模型的基础上,运用规范分析方法讨论了公共服务的市场接近效应及其对要素空间聚集（扩散）的影响,研究表明公共服务供给的变化会通过市场接近效应影响要素空间集聚（扩散）,改变区域空间经济结构.     

“主计算枝+影响枝”的系统动力学建模方法在卫生费用预测中的应用

控制卫生费用的不合理增长是卫生政策的重要选题,影响卫生费用的因素众多复杂,且相互作用,探索科学的预测方法对卫生费用未来增长趋势的准确预测至关重要.目前常用的定量预测方法有回归模型、因子分析、时间序列模型、组合预测模型、趋势外推法、灰色预测模型、人工神经网络模型等,这些方法大多都是用数学模型对未来变化趋势进行预测,对系统整体环境的变化及其各种因素的影响考虑不够充分,研究目标单一,且对数据的时间序列长度要求严格.为克服常规预测方法的不足,结合卫生费用复杂性、动态性、敏感性等特征,从系统工程的角度,充分考虑到社会人口、经济水平、卫生资源、国家政策、卫生费用结构方面的因素等对卫生费用的影响及其交互作用,试着从系统工程的角度,运用系统动力学建模技术,创新性地提出"主计算枝+影响枝"的系统动力学建模方法,建立卫生总费用、人口数量、GDP、老龄化、卫生技术人员数量、政府卫生支出、药品费用等七个系统动力学流率入树模型.基于2001 2013年的历史数据,主计算枝流率变量方程的建立主要用到乘积式、表函数,影响枝各变量方程的建立主要运用表函数、延迟函数、阶跃函数、选择函数等,以2001年为初始年,仿真时间为2001 2025年,其中2001 2014年为历史时间,2015 2025年为预测时间,仿真步长为年.借助Vensim仿真软件,实现卫生费用复杂系统内部结构与行为特征的可视化模拟,将2002 2014的模拟结果与历史结果相比,卫生费用预测结果的平均吻合率达97.8%.定量预测结果及其决定因素的量化测量,将是制订国家宏观卫生政策的重要依据.     

国家审计对政府卫生支出的影响及异质性研究——基于贝叶斯分位数回归模型

本文利用2007~2016年省级数据,基于贝叶斯分位数回归模型研究了国家审计对政府卫生支出的影响,及不同政府卫生支出水平下各影响因素的异质性效应。结果表明,国家审计对政府卫生支出的腐败行为具有显著的治理功能,国家审计的投入力度越大,其监督、预防、揭示和抵御功能发挥得越好,越有助于提高政府卫生支出水平。此外,不同的政府卫生支出水平,国家审计治理的影响程度具有明显异质性效应,且各影响因素的系数变化具有显著性差异。因此,为加强腐败治理促进政府卫生支出,不仅需要注重国家审计顶层设计的落地,加强政府多方部门合作推进协同审计,而且应根据具体的政府卫生支出水平做出相应的政策调整以避免地方“政策趋同”带来的不利。     

The relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in Poland

This paper investigates the association between different kinds of budgetary expenditure and economic growth of Poland. The empirical analysis makes use of linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to evaluate the applicability of Wagner’s Law and that of the contrasting Keynesian theory. We employ aggregate and disaggregate data with the sub-categories of most important budgetary expenditure, including health care and social security, education and science, national defence and public security expenditure and government administration expenditure for the period Q1 2000 to Q3 2008. This causality analysis indicates that total relation between budgetary expenditure and economic growth is consistent with Keynesian theory. The results of our computations have important policy implications. In case of Poland the health care expenditure was found to be as important for economic growth as expenditures on education and science. Furthermore, in order to stimulate economic growth, Polish government should consider reallocating some of national defence, public security and government administration expenditure to health care, social security, education and science expenditure.     

Trends in labor efficiency among American hospital markets

The health care sector is one of the most labor intensive sectors of the economy. As a major player in health service delivery, hospitals must closely examine their largest cost — labor expenses. This study evaluates trends in the efficiency of health care labor among urban hospital markets. More specifically, it assesses the hypothesis that technological changes and market and regulatory pressures have increased aggregate labor efficiency. Using data envelopment analysis (DEA), this study evaluates labor efficiency in 1989 and 1993 in 298 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with two or more hospitals. Results of this study suggest that between 1989 and 1993, hospital markets generally demonstrated higher labor inefficiencies. The U.S. health care system could save approximately $16.6 billion in 1993 by eliminating hospitals' excessive use of health care provider labor.     

U.S. and Chinese Teachers' Constructing, Knowing, and Evaluating Representations to Teach Mathematics

This study examined U.S. and Chinese teachers' constructing, knowing, and evaluating representations to teach mathematics. All Chinese lesson plans are very similar, because they are all based on the Chinese national unified curriculum in mathematics. However, the U.S. lesson plans are extremely varied, even for those teachers from the same school. The Chinese teachers' lessons are very detailed; the U.S. teachers' lesson plans have exclusively adopted the “outline and worksheet” format. In the Chinese lesson plans, concrete representations are used exclusively to mediate students' understanding of the concept of average. In U.S. lessons, concrete representations are not only used to model the averaging processes to foster students' understanding of the concept, but they are also used to generate data. The U.S. teachers are much more likely than the Chinese teachers to predict drawing and guess-and-check strategies. For some problems, the Chinese teachers are much more likely than are the U.S. teachers to predict algebraic approaches. For the responses using conventional strategies, both the U.S. and Chinese teachers gave them high and almost identical scores. If a response involved a drawing or an estimate of an answer, the Chinese teachers usually gave a relatively lower score, even though the strategy is appropriate for the correct answer, because it is less generalizable. This study contributed to our understanding of the cross-national differences between U.S. and Chinese students' mathematical thinking. It also contributed to our understanding about teachers' beliefs from a cross-cultural perspective.     

U.S. and Chinese Teachers' Constructing,Knowing, and Evaluating Representations to Teach Mathematics

This study examined U.S. and Chinese teachers' constructing, knowing, and evaluating representations to teach mathematics. All Chinese lesson plans are very similar, because they are all based on the Chinese national unified curriculum in mathematics. However, the U.S. lesson plans are extremely varied, even for those teachers from the same school. The Chinese teachers' lessons are very detailed; the U.S. teachers' lesson plans have exclusively adopted the "outline and worksheet" format. In the Chinese lesson plans, concrete representations are used exclusively to mediate students' understanding of the concept of average. In U.S. lessons, concrete representations are not only used to model the averaging processes to foster students' understanding of the concept, but they are also used to generate data. The U.S. teachers are much more likely than the Chinese teachers to predict drawing and guess-and-check strategies. For some problems, the Chinese teachers are much more likely than are the U.S. teachers to predict algebraic approaches. For the responses using conventional strategies, both the U.S. and Chinese teachers gave them high and almost identical scores. If a response involved a drawing or an estimate of an answer, the Chinese teachers usually gave a relatively lower score, even though the strategy is appropriate for the correct answer, because it is less generalizable. This study contributed to our understanding of the cross-national differences between U.S. and Chinese students' mathematical thinking. It also contributed to our understanding about teachers' beliefs from a cross-cultural perspective.     

西藏林芝地区城镇居民消费支出的G(1,1)模型预测及其影响因素的关联度分析

利用2006—2012年林芝地区城镇居民人均生活消费支出数据为研究对象,应用灰色系统理论建立了林芝地区城镇居民消费的G(1,1)预测模型,对其未来几年的人均生活消费进行预测,分析得出:在未来五年中林芝地区城镇居民人均生活消费支出呈现攀升的态势,平均年增长率预计达到7.93%.并运用灰色关联分析方法对影响林芝地区城镇居民消费支出的主要因素进行系统分析,确定了各因素相对于消费支出的关联程度.     

Measuring the value of information: The case of data on the cost of producing cotton

Operational measurement methods may be developed to measure the value of information in the data reported by the U.S. Government. Illustrative measures for cost of cotton production statistics indicate that the benefits from these data in certain important uses may far exceed their costs. If similar measures could be provided for major Government data programmes, it would facilitate the development of a national data policy that is oriented toward decision making and improvements in economic growth, national well-being, and quality of life. Making these estimates would begin to provide the dollar values in important uses of information in the nation's data bases. These values are needed for allocating resources to maintain, refine, and develop fundamental data series. Cutting data expenditure in the absence of these value measures may be false economy indeed; because, reducing data series with very high benefit/cost ratios might well limit, if not reduce, living standards for many generations to come.Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc.     

不同决策模式下的双渠道供应链合作广告博弈分析

本文研究了双渠道供应链中非合作广告模式、合作广告模式和战略联盟模式下的合作广告问题,给出了不同决策模式下的均衡解。对比分析发现:战略联盟模式中品牌广告和零售商广告投入水平最高,网络广告投入水平最低且零售渠道的产品需求最高。合作广告模式和战略联盟模式中的系统收益与广告比率负相关,与产品网络适应度正相关。     

Political engineering: optimizing a U.S. Presidential candidate’s platform

We explore the application of operations research to the problem of defining/refining the political strategy for a candidate in a U.S. Presidential election. We use Hierarchical Bayesian techniques to model criteria used by a stratified random sample of registered voters to evaluate a candidate/platform. We then use the estimated utility parameters as inputs to a model that finds the positions a candidate can take on the salient issues of the election that will optimize expected Electoral College votes conditional on the positions respondents perceive to have been taken by the opposing party’s nominee. This approach is unique in that it (i) considers the value that individual voters associate with various positions the candidates can take on various issues, (ii) considers the chronicity of the electorate’s perceptions of a candidate’s positions on the salient issues, and (iii) yields a solution that will optimize expected Electoral College votes. We demonstrate this model on data collected immediately prior to the 2004 U.S. Presidential election (the most recent U.S. Presidential election not involving any potential candidate for the upcoming 2012 U.S. Presidential election), and we show how these data and the model can also be used to assess the perceived clarity of a candidate’s positions, the sensitivity of a candidate’s support to her/his perceived positions, and the viability of a third party candidate.     

基于面板数据的世界主要国家全要素生产率的计算

TFP是有关科技与经济增长之间关系研究领域的一个经久不衰的话题,但针对不同国家的TFP的比较研究较少.收集了美、日、中、俄等19个国家1999-2006年的国内生产总值、固定资产投资额、劳动力数、专利数、R&D人员数、R&D经费投入等数据,采用经典的生产函数模型,用面板数据计量方法,从单位根检验、协整关系和面板模型的选择等方面进行严格的推导,计算了各国的TFP值,然后将TFP值与专利数、R&D人员数、R&D经费投入等变量之间进行了相关分析,得到了一系列富有启示意义的结论.