内生网络环境下2-步邻域内的局部策略互动及其仿真

考察内生网络环境下局中人与2-步邻域内的邻居进行的局部协同对策,较为完整地给出了均衡网络的结构特性,以及费用参数和互动半径对于均衡结构的影响. 基于 NetLogo仿真系统,编制了局部互动仿真模拟实验程序. 仿真结果显示,网络生成的动态进程对于网络均衡结果存在很大影响. 结果对于解决社会和经济领域中的互动问题可提供策略性指导.     

一类时滞Solow模型的动态周期波动分析

考虑到资本生产投资和污染治理投资的时滞性,为分析其对经济环境系统动态演化的影响机理,基于经典的Solow模型,引入环境净化和两个投资时滞参数.首次提出了带有环境净化的双时滞Solow模型,并分析了该模型的动态周期波动行为.结果表明:无论单个投资时滞还是两个投资时滞,均能诱发经济周期的产生;时滞越大,经济周期波动越强烈;通过调整投资决策可达到预期均衡目标,实现经济环境系统的周期稳定运行.     

未来海平面上升的预测及其影响

本文研究了全球气候变暖带来的海平面上升及其影响，利用海水的热膨胀原理和冰盖的质量平衡原理，得到了海平面上升的预测模型，并且运用该模型对未来50年全球海平面上升的情况进行了预测．     

对外开放对区域经济增长和产业转型的动态影响——基于GVAR模型的实证研究

新常态下,我国对外开放增速放缓,一定程度上影响了我国区域经济发展和产业转型.因此选取2005年-2015年的季度数据,通过全球向量自回归模型(GVAR)实证分析对外开放对区域经济增长和产业转型的动态影响.研究结果显示:1)外资引进的增加对区域经济增长有显著的拉动作用,而对产业高级化的作用有明显的区域特征,除南部沿海经济区和大西北经济区受到抑制外,其他的都呈现带动效果.2)对外贸易对区域经济增长和产业高级化都呈现出了阻碍作用.     

碳关税影响我国经济发展的动态一般均衡研究

碳关税是面向未来经济发展模式的新型贸易政策,兼具环境规制和贸易政策的双重功能.论文采用2002-2030年的中国动态CGE模型,构造“虚拟”碳关税方程,设计了基于总能耗的分行业碳排放密度的模拟方案,讨论是否存在“波特假说”情形下对中国工业制成品征收30美元/吨的碳关税的动态影响.研究结果表明:碳关税对不同类型出口品具有不同程度的动态影响,但总出口下降幅度要弱于进口、投资以及消费下降幅度.“波特假说”在一定程度上改善了不利的经济影响,但长期而言单位GDP碳排放的减少并不显著.     

精益生产之金蝶ERP方案

随着全球金融风暴阴霾的消散,新的经济环境对全球相关产业提出了新的要求,尤其对于以制造业为支柱产业的中国经济而言,在以＂转型＂为主导方向的＂十二五＂规划工作中.     

广西能源、环境和经济增长的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

利用广西1990-2011年GDP、能源消费和工业废气排放总量的数据,应用基于VAR模型的动态计量分析方法,对广西经济、能源和环境的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:三者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,能源消耗是经济增长和环境污染的Granger原因,经济增长是能源消耗和环境污染的Granger原因.能源消耗对经济增长的正向影响效应时间较长且较稳定,环境污染初期对经济增长的抑制作用较弱却呈现缓慢增强的趋势;而经济增长对能源消耗和环境污染的影响持续时间较短.经济增长与能源消耗两者之间的相互影响较大,而环境污染受能源消耗变化影响较明显.     

中国行业并购动态演变路径及政策、金融环境影响分析

本文使用函数性数据分析方法中相平面图技术,考察中国三大行业及其子行业并购重组动态路径演变,同时探索国家行业政策和经济金融环境的变化对并购动态演变的影响.本文发现随着产业经济规模的发展,整个并购重组频次呈现上升趋势;第一产业的动态演变路径呈现出低-高-低的"收缩螺旋"特征,第二、三产业的发展呈现出低-高-低-高的"扩张螺旋"动态演变路径;股权分置改革、金融危机、行业政策的出台等事件严重影响相关产业的并购重组动态演变路径.     

系统重要性银行指标法的适用性讨论

金融机构尤其是商业银行在全球经济、金融的重要地位和风险管理中可能造成的核心影响成为次贷危机后最受关注的问题之一.首先构建了中国系统重要性银行的评价体系,并利用主观均匀赋权方法,给出16家上市银行2004-2014年的动态评价结果;其次利用归一标准化的熵值法对该主观赋权结果进行校验,结果发现在动态时间中该指标体系的主、客观赋权结果除了对商业银行有很显著的梯队区分度外,还保持了较好的稳定和一致性.指标评价体系可为监管机构和商业银行的风险管理、资本要求等多方面管理提供借鉴和指导.     

航空公司运行控制中心保障能力评估模型研究

从能力的静态和动态特征2个方面构建航空公司运行控制中心保障能力评估模型,静态能力包括计划制定能力、运力调配能力、签派放行能力和飞行跟踪与动态监控能力.动态能力分为风险管理、人机管理、安全文化和环境管理4个方面,并利用结构方程模型(SEM)构建各保障能力之间的关系结构.研究显示动态能力对航空公司运行控制中心保障能力有显著性的影响,其中环境管理、安全文化和风险管理是提高安全运行保障能力最直接有效的3个方面;动态能力对静态能力有显著的影响,并可通过模型系数定量确定动态能力及任意动态能力影响要素的组合对静态能力的影响程度.     

Numerical verification of delta shock waves for pressureless gas dynamics

The subject of this paper is theoretical analysis and numerical verification of delta shock wave existence for pressureless gas dynamic system. The existence of overcompressive delta shock wave solution in the framework of Colombeau generalized functions is proved. This result is verified numerically by specially designed procedure that is based on wave propagation method implemented in CLAWPACK. The method is coupled with dynamic refinement mesh. We also consider a strictly hyperbolic system obtained from the original one by perturbation and change of variables. The same numerical procedure is applied to the perturbed problem. The obtained numerical results in both cases confirm theoretical expectations.     

Multiple duffing problem in a folding structure with hill-top bifurcation

This paper reviews the theoretical basis and its application for a multiple type of Duffing oscillation. This paper uses a suitable theoretical model to examine the structural instability of a folding truss which is limited so that only vertical displacements are possible for each nodal point supported by both sides. The equilibrium path in this ideal model has been found to have a type of “hill-top bifurcation” from the theoretical work of bifurcation analysis. Dynamic analysis allows for geometrical non-linearity based upon static bifurcation theory. We have found that a simple folding structure based on Multi-Folding-Microstructures theory is more interesting when there is a strange trajectory in multiple homo/hetero-clinic orbits than a well-known ordinary homoclinic orbit, as a model of an extended multiple degrees-of-freedom Duffing oscillation. We found that there are both globally and locally dynamic behaviours for a folding multi-layered truss which corresponds to the structure of the multiple homo/hetero-clinic orbits. This means the numerical solution depends on the dynamic behaviour of the system subjected to the forced cyclic loading such as folding or expanding action. The author suggests simplified theoretical models for hill-top bifurcation that help us to understand globally and locally dynamic behaviours, which depends on the static bifurcation problem. Such models are very useful for forecasting simulations of the extended Duffing oscillation model as essential and invariant nonlinear phenomena.     

企业家社会资本、企业动态能力和企业绩效的关系研究

在剖析企业家社会资本和企业动态能力内涵的基础上,通过理论分析构建企业家社会资本、企业动态能力和企业绩效关系的理论模型,并利用自编量表通过多途径收集了251个有效样本的数据对理论模型进行了检验.统计分析结果表明:理论模型在总体上得到了较好验证,但是变量间的作用路径具有差异性,即:动态能力在企业家社会资本和市场绩效中起部分中介作用;动态能力在企业家社会资本和新产品开发绩效中起部分中介作用.该研究从企业家社会资本视角探索企业动态能力的形成路径及其对企业绩效的影响,具有理论创新意义.     

The greater whole: Towards a synthesis of system dynamics and soft systems methodology

This paper makes a theoretical case for using these two systems approaches together. The theoretical and methodological assumptions of system dynamics (SD) and soft system methodology (SSM) are briefly described and a partial critique is presented. SSM generates and represents diverse perspectives on a problem situation and addresses the socio-political elements of an intervention. However, it is weak in ensuring `dynamic coherence'. consistency between the intuitive behaviour resulting from proposed changes and behaviour deduced from ideas on causal structure. Conversely, SD examines causal structures and dynamic behaviours. However, whilst emphasising the need for a clear issue focus, it has little theory for generating and representing diverse issues. Also, there is no theory for facilitating sensitivity to socio-political elements. A synthesis of the two called ‘Holon Dynamics' is proposed. After an SSM intervention, a second stage continues the socio-political analysis and also operates within a new perspective which values dynamic coherence of the mental construct - the holon - which is capable of expressing the proposed changes. A model of this holon is constructed using SD and the changes are thus rendered `systemically desirable' in the additional sense that dynamic consistency has been confirmed. The paper closes with reflections on the proposal and the need for theoretical consistency when mixing tools is emphasised.     

基于动态综合评价模型的街区型住区开放对城市交通拥堵影响的研究（英文）

The growing use of vehicles with the development of China brings greater pressure on the existing road traffic network. Based on the domestic and international research experiences and the domestic congestion situations, this paper selected six indicators that affect the traffic conditions. As each single indicator cannot reflect the detailed traffic quality separately, the dynamic comprehensive evaluation principle is adopted.Then we used the principle of "Variation Driven" to determine the weight vector of each sub-indicator, and established a multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation system through the dynamic weight of each sub-indicator. Finally, the rationality and feasibility of the system is demonstrated by case analysis. This provides a strong theoretical foundation and basis to mitigate traffic congestion.     

一个新混沌系统及错位投影同步通讯方案

提出了一个新的混沌系统,该系统含有五个参数,每个状态方程均含有非线性乘积项.通过理论推导,数值仿真,Lyapunov指数、Lyapunov维数、分岔图研究其基本的动力学特性,并分析了改变参数时系统的动力学行为的变化.本文研究了该系统的错位投影同步,设计了非线性控制器,实现了两个初值不同的新系统的错位投影同步.另外,将该系统及错位投影同步方法应用到保密通信中,基于改进的混沌掩盖通讯原理,在发送端使用新系统信号对信息信号进行加密及传送,最后在同步后的接收端不失真地恢复出有用信号.数值仿真表明所设计的新的混沌系统具有复杂的动力学特性,适用于保密通讯.     

Unpacking learner’s growth in geometric understanding when solving problems in a dynamic geometry environment: Coordinating two frames

The emergence of dynamic geometry environments challenges researchers in mathematics education to develop theories that capture learner’s growth in geometric understanding in this particular environment. This study coordinated the Pirie-Kieren theory and instrumental genesis to examine learner’s growth in geometric understanding when solving problems in a dynamic geometry environment. Data analysis suggested that coordinating the two theoretical approaches provided a productive means to capture the dynamic interaction between the growth in mathematical understanding and the formation/application of utilization scheme during a learner’s mathematical exploration with dynamic geometry software. The analysis of one episode on inscribing a square in a triangle was shared to illustrate this approach. This study contributes to the continuing conversation of “networking theories” in the mathematics education research community. By networking the two theoretical approaches, this paper presents a model for studying learner's growth in mathematical understanding in a dynamic learning environment while accounting for interaction with digital tools.     

金融动力系统的同步脉冲控制

针对一类金融三维动力系统,提出了一种同步控制法.基于微分脉冲系统理论,设计了带状态反馈的脉冲控制策略来实现系统的同步控制.理论分析和数值模拟的结果都验证了控制器的有效性.这一控制策略简单便于实现,更可以用于一般非线性混沌系统的控制.     

Nonlinear dynamics and circuit implementation for a new Lorenz-like attractor

In this paper, a new Lorenz-like chaotic system is reported. Nonlinear characteristic and basic dynamic properties of the three-dimensional autonomous system are studied by means of nonlinear dynamics theory. The chaotic system is not only demonstrated by theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, such as equilibria stability analysis, Lyapunov-exponent spectra, Lyapunov dimension, bifurcation diagrams, but also implemented via an electronic circuit.