时变视角下有色金属市场金融化的行业影响效应研究

本文采用2006年8月至2016年12月的月度数据,选择具有代表性的上中下游行业构建SVAR模型,并将有色金属价格波动的结构性冲击分解为供给冲击、经济总需求冲击、金融投机冲击及预防性需求冲击,实证考察有色金属市场金融化的行业影响效应及相对重要性,在此基础上,进一步利用TVP-SVAR-SV模型,考察金融化对有色金属产业链各环节产出影响的时变性及结构性变化。结果发现:随着有色金属市场金融化的日益深化,其带来的有色金属价格波动会抑制有色金属产业链产出,且在不同有色金属品种中,由于金融化程度的差异,其抑制效应具有差异性;此外,金融化带来的有色金属价格波动对有色金属产业链产出的影响呈现显著的时变性特征,并在不同时间尺度与不同时点的影响程度与持续时间存在明显的差异性,国际金融危机在一定程度上增强了有色金属市场金融化对有色金属行业产出的抑制效应。     

An analytical model for reverse automotive production planning and pricing

Automotive shredders need a reverse production planning strategy that includes determining at what price to purchase vehicle hulks from different sources. In this paper, we formulate the automotive reverse production planning and pricing problem in a nonlinear programming model, develop an approximate supply function for hulks when adjacent shredders price independently, and compare two hulk pricing strategies in three trends for ferrous metal and hulk prices: constant, increasing and decreasing. The case study results indicate that adjusting purchase price based on hulk composition in coordination with planning for purchasing, storing and processing can increase net revenue by 7–15%.     

基于政府干预的报废汽车回收博弈模型

为分析政府干预如何影响当前报废汽车市场的回收效率,分别建立了基于政府补贴、政府规范的博弈模型,并对比分析了补贴前后、规范前后正规回收拆解企业和非正规回收拆解企业的决策。研究结果表明,两种策略对回收市场都有显著的正向导向作用,且受车主对回收价格的敏感度和市场主体之间竞争程度的影响。但当前市场环境下,相较于规范,补贴更有利于回收市场的健康发展。最后,通过数值仿真探讨不同补贴和规范政策对废旧汽车回收率的影响,为政府和汽车回收拆解企业提供有意义的决策依据。     

政府奖励对报废汽车回收模式选择的作用机制研究——基于企业社会责任视角

随着我国报废汽车数量的增多,由其造成的交通隐患、环境污染和资源浪费已成为重要社会问题,而如何设计合理可行的回收模式成为解决问题的关键。以制造商主导为前提,提出了基于企业社会责任的报废汽车回收模型,构建了制造商回收、销售商回收和第三方回收模式下的回收流程和数学模型,通过实例对考虑和不考虑企业社会责任两种情况下的回收模型进行了分析,探讨了不同政府奖励下报废汽车回收模式的策略选择。通过研究发现:(1)不论是否考虑企业社会责任,随着政府奖励的增加,制造商最终都会选择由自己进行回收;(2)当考虑企业社会责任时,政府奖励和决策者经济责任偏好都会导致决策的改变,随着政府奖励和赋予经济责任权重的同步增加,制造商的决策由第三方企业回收模式或销售商回收模式变成了制造商回收模式,表明政府奖励和企业社会责任对报废汽车回收模式选择具有显著影响。     

产业链视角下结构性有色金属价格冲击的行业传导效应

本文基于产业链的新视角,采用2006年8月至2016年4月的月度数据,选择具有代表性的6个工业行业以构建反映有色金属产业链内在联系的SVAR模型,将国际有色金属价格冲击分解为供给冲击、经济需求冲击以及预防性需求冲击,考察这三种结构性冲击对我国有色金属产业链各环节产出的影响效应,并通过分解上中下游行业的通胀来源,探究国际有色金属价格冲击的主要传导路径。结果显示:供给冲击和预防性需求冲击推动的有色金属价格上涨与工业行业产出呈现负相关关系,而经济需求冲击带来的有色金属价格上涨与工业行业产出呈现同向变化;三种结构性冲击对我国工业行业通胀的影响有两条传导路径,供给冲击与预防性需求冲击带来的国际有色金属价格上涨会产生成本推动型通胀,并且冲击作用沿着产业链的上游往下游进行正向传导,而经济需求冲击带来的国际有色金属价格上涨会产生需求拉动型通胀,并且冲击作用沿着产业链下游往上游进行逆向传导。     

Modelling of containerized air cargo forwarding problems under uncertainty

This paper examines air container renting and cargo loading problems experienced by freight forwarding companies. Containers have to be booked in advance, in order to obtain discounted rental rates from airlines; renting or returning containers on the day of shipping will incur a heavy penalty. We first propose a mixed-integer model for the certain problem, in which shipment information is known with certainty, when booking. We then present a two-stage recourse model to handle the uncertainty problem, in which accurate shipment information cannot be obtained when booking, and all cargoes have to be shipped without delay. The first-stage decision is made at the booking stage, to book specific numbers of different types of containers. The second-stage decision is made on the day of shipping, depending on the extent to which the uncertainty has been realized. The decisions include number of additional containers of different types that are required to be rented, or the number of containers to be returned, under the scenario that might occur on the day of shipping. We then extend the recourse model into a robust model for dealing with the situation in which cargoes are allowed to be shipped later. The robust model provides a quantitative method to measure the trade-off between risk and cost. A series of experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the robust model in dealing with risk and uncertainty.     

区间数排序法在土壤重金属生态风险分析中的应用

将土壤重金属含量以区间形式表示,并引入区间数排序法,建立了一种基于区间数排序法的土壤重金属生态风险分析模型,并对土壤重金属进行生态风险分析.结果表明,7种重金属的区间排序向量排序为PbCdAsZnCuCrNi,重金属Pb、Cd、As和Zn的生态风险较大.此分析结果符合当地的实际情况,同时与地积累指数法的结果相符,说明区间数排序法在土壤重金属生态风险分析的应用是合理的,其分析结果具有可靠性,也为土壤重金属的风险管理提供理论依据.     

汉中市主要水系重金属污染评价研究

通过监测汉中市主要水系即汉江和嘉陵江水体中表层沉积物中的重金属含量,应用地累积指数法对两大水系汉中段水体进行重金属污染评价研究.研究结果表明,汉中市主要水系中重金属富集顺序为:CdPbZnCuAsCr.同时,得出了各种重金属的空间分布特征并分析了其原因,并提出了对策性建议.     

A Benders decomposition approach for a distribution network design problem with consolidation and capacity considerations

We develop a model for a strategic freight-forwarding network design problem in which the design decisions involve the locations and capacities of consolidation and deconsolidation centers, and capacities on linehaul linkages as well as the shipment routes from origins to destinations through centers. We devise a solution approach based on Benders decomposition and conduct a computational study that illustrates the efficiency and the effectiveness of the approach.     

城市表层土壤重金属污染分析模型

本文先利用Matlab做出各种重金属元素浓度的空间分布图,初步得到土壤重金属污染的状况.接着用内梅罗污染指数法定量的确定土壤重金属污染最严重的地区,并用主成分分析法进行了验证.最后利用灰色-灾变与回归预测的组合模型解决了地质环境的演变问题.     

Results from investigations into the antifrictional characteristics of a group of polymer compositions based on epoxide resins

The results are presented from comparative investigations into the antifrictional and mechanical properties of polymer compositions based on epoxide resins ÉD-5, ÉD-6, and fillers in the form of finely dispersed powders of polymeric materials [polyfluoroethylene, polycaproamide (Kapron B), polyethylene, graphite, sawdust], Babbitt metal B-83, and solidol US-2 grease. The investigations show that the above-mentioned materials are not inferior in their antifrictional characteristics to the widely used nonferrous metals (Babbitt B-83, TsAM 9-1.5, bronze OTsS 5-5-5). The rational regions of use of the investigated compositions are indicated.Rostov-on-Don Institute of Railroad Engineers. Translated from Mekhanika Polimerov, No. 1, pp. 87–90, January–February, 1972.     

主路多车道无信号交叉口混合交通流的通行能力

Highway capacity is defined as maximum volume of traffic flow through the particular highway section under given traffic conditions,road conditions and so on.Highway construction and management is judged by capacity standard.The reasonable scale and time of highway construction,rational network structure and optimal management mode of highway network can be determined by analyzing the fitness between capacity and traffic volume.All over the world,highway capacity is studied to different extent in different country. Based on the gap acceptance theory,the mixed traffic flow composed of two representative vehicle types heavy and light vehicles is analyzed with probability theory.Capacity model of the minor mixed traffic flows crossing m major lanes,on which the traffic flows fix in with M3 distributed headway,on the unsignalized intersection is set up,and it is an extension of minor lane capacity theory for one vehicle-type and one major-lane traffic flow.     

An Optimal Mixed Batch Shipment Policy for Multiple Items in a Single-Supplier Multiple-Retailer Integrated System

This study addresses mixed batch shipment policy with common replenishment cycle for multiple items in a single-supplier multiple-retailer integrated system. The supplier produces multiple items on a single facility under a common replenishment cycle and delivers products to retailer utilizing a mixed batch shipment policy. The objective is to determine the optimal replenishment cycle, the number of shipments, and the structure of mixed shipment, all of which minimize the integrated total cost per unit time. The single-item isolation model is constructed first, and the single-item isolation model is then integrated into the single-item integration model. Moreover, the single-item integration model is integrated into the multi-item integration model. The minimum total cost model is transformed into a maximum replenishment cycle model to optimize the structure of the mixed batch shipment. The replenishment cycle division method is then developed to obtain the optimal solutions to the subject problem. Examples are presented to illustrate the procedures involved in the replenishment cycle division method.     

Strategic response to pollution taxes in supply chain networks: Dynamic,spatial, and organizational dimensions

This paper presents a model of the strategic behavior of firms operating in a spatial supply chain network. The manufacturing and retailing firms engage in an oligopolistic, noncooperative game by sharing customer demand such that a firm’s decisions impact the product prices, which in turn result in changes in all other firms’ decisions. Each firm’s payoff is to maximize its own profit and we show that, in response to such changes in prices and to exogenous environmental taxes, the manufacturing firms may strategically alter a variety of choices such as ’make-buy’ decisions with respect to intermediate inputs, spatial distribution of production, product shipment patterns and inventory management, environmental tax payment vs recycling decisions, and timing of all such choices to sustainably manage the profit and the environmental regulations. An important implication is that effects of a tax depends on the oligopolistic game structure. With respect to methods, we show that this dynamic game can be represented as a set of differential variational inequalities (DVIs) that motivate a computationally efficient nonlinear complementarity (NCP) approach that enables the full exploitation of above-mentioned salient features. We also provide a numerical example that confirms the utility of our proposed framework and shows substantial strategic reaction can be expected to a tax on pollution stocks.     

Reverse supply chain coordination by revenue sharing contract: A case for the personal computers industry

Products that are not recycled at the end of their life increasingly damage the environment. In a collection – remanufacturing scheme, these end-of-life products can generate new profits. Designed on the personal computers industry, this study defines an analytical model used to explore the implications of recycling on the reverse supply chain from an efficiency perspective for all participants in the process. The cases considered for analysis are the two- and three-echelon supply chains, where we first look at the decentralized reverse setting followed by the coordinated setting through implementation of revenue sharing contract. We define customer willingness to return obsolete units as a function of the discount offered by the retailer in exchange for recycling devices with a remanufacturing value. The results show that performance measures and total supply chain profits improve through coordination with revenue sharing contracts on both two- and three-echelon reverse supply chains.     

爆炸和冲击载荷下金属材料及结构的动态失效仿真

通过数值模拟研究爆炸冲击载荷下金属材料和结构的动态失效规律对表征爆炸冲击毁伤效应及设计新型抗冲击结构具有重要意义.强动载下金属材料失效涉及材料大变形、热力耦合、材料状态变化等多个复杂物理过程,给数值仿真带来了极大挑战,其中包括裂纹、剪切带等复杂失效模式的几何描述、动态失效准则的确定、塑性与损伤耦合演化的描述等问题.针对这些挑战性问题,基于能量变分建立描述金属动态失效过程的热弹塑性相场理论和计算模型,实现了断裂与剪切带失效模式的统一描述,并提出了其显式有限元高效求解策略.进一步将该模型应用于爆炸冲击载荷下金属脆韧失效模式转变、绝热剪切带（ASBs）自组织及冲击波作用下薄壁圆盘失效形式转变三个典型金属动态失效问题,验证了理论模型的准确性及计算模型的稳健性.该工作为后续开展基于仿真的爆炸冲击毁伤评估及防护结构设计研究奠定了基础.     

Inventory,transportation, service quality and the location of distribution centers

A crucial question in the design of efficient logistics systems is the identification of locations for distribution centers (DCs). However, the optimization of these location decisions requires careful attention to the inherent trade-offs among facility costs, inventory costs, transportation costs, and customer responsiveness. This paper presents a modeling approach that provides such an integrated view, and illustrates how it works in the context of a specific example involving the distribution of finished vehicles by an automotive manufacturer.     

土壤污染程度分析及迁移规律的优化模型

本文根据题中给出的已知数据,对城区五个功能区的8种重金属元素（As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb、Zn）的浓度及分布范围,利用matlab软件中插值计算法和绘图功能,绘出了重金属元素在该城区的空间分布图．再运用变异系数值法初步估算出了每个功能区8种元素的变异系数值分析功能区重金属浓度超标情况,进而选用地累积指数法作优化模型,定量分析该城区内不同区域重金属的污染程度．根据采样的现有数据,分析了重金属在土壤中的传播特性,分析了重金属污染物在进入土壤环境系统后的迁移规律,阐述了土壤中重金属传播规律．     

A novel heuristic approach to determine compromise management for end-of-life electronic products

The European Union directive of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment for recycling end-of-life (EOL) products has had a significant impact on global enterprises. Recent studies have shed light on optimization of the EOL process. In addition to identifying the most economical EOL process, identifying the EOL process with the smallest environmental load is equally important, and this is thus a bi-criteria optimization problem. This study attempts to optimize EOL processes for electronic products based on a three-stage heuristic approach, which simultaneously minimizes cost and environmental impact. The proposed heuristic approach then assesses the most common disassembly and recycling processes by using the characteristics of electronic product recycling. Next, the best process for this bi-criteria optimization problem is identified by using the compromise programming method. The empirical analysis is based on data for notebook, and the potential impact on best EOL processes when notebook adopt new product designs is also discussed.     

Integrated Inventory Replenishment and Temporal Shipment Consolidation: A Comparison of Quantity-Based and Time-Based Models

In this paper we present two models for joint stock replenishment and shipment consolidation decisions which arise in the context of vendor managed inventory. Stock replenishment from suppliers or shipment to customers each incurs a lump-sum cost to the vendor. We assume the vendor uses the reorder point, lot-size policy to replenish stock and one of two schemes to dispatch shipment: the time-based and quantity-based consolidation schemes. Under the time-based (quantity-based) scheme, a shipment is dispatched periodically (when a certain quantity of outstanding demand is accumulated). The basic finding is that the quantity-based scheme can outperform the time-based counterpart while the reverse never occurs.