2008年中国阜阳手足口病爆发的研究调查

2008年中国阜阳发生的手足口病疫情为研究对象,建立了S IR传染病模型,并根据实际数据进行了数值模拟,分析了疫情爆发规律,对未来再次发生手足口病疫情的情况进行分析,提出了可行性方案.     

一类具时滞和脉冲接种的SEIR疾病传播模型

首先针对具时滞和脉冲接种的SEIR传染病模型,分析了模型无病周期解的全局吸引性.然后,基于2013年宁夏流行性腮腺炎的疫情数据,估计脉冲接种周期,并对系统进行了数值模拟,模拟结果与理论结果一致.     

基于时滞动力学模型对钻石公主号邮轮疫情的分析

2019年末以来,新型冠状病毒肺炎迅速蔓延的疫情引发了全球关注.文献[5-6]提出了一类时滞动力学系统的新冠肺炎传播模型用以描述疫情的发展趋势.文献[7]在此基础上,结合CCDC统计数据,提出了一类基于CCDC统计数据的随机时滞动力学模型.本文将使用以上两类模型研究分析"钻石公主号"邮轮的疫情发展.基于日本厚生劳动省公布的数据,本文准确反演出模型参数,进而有效模拟当前疫情的发展,并预测疫情未来的趋势,发现在疫情爆发初期基本再生数R0(t)较大,而后随着防控措施加强而逐渐减小;约在2月下旬,累计确诊人数增长速度放缓,在3月上旬,累计确诊人数趋于稳定,即无新增确诊人数,疫情得到有效控制;最终累计确诊人数对隔离率变化敏感,隔离率升高,最终累计确诊人数将有显著下降.针对传染率较高、隔离率较低的问题,本文建议日本政府进一步加强防控措施,抑制疫情的大规模爆发.     

一类含有脉冲免疫和治疗的SIR流行病的分析

在考虑脉冲接种和脉冲治疗的基础上,本文提出了一类新的含有两个脉冲过程和治疗的SIR传染病模型.利用频闪映射和Floquet理论,研究了无病周期解的存在性与稳定性,这意味着疫情最终可能灭绝.此外,研究了该流行病持久流行的条件,获得了决定疫情是否发生的基本再生数.最后,通过数值模拟分析,说明了脉冲接种和脉冲治疗对疾病控制的影响.     

关于SARS的预测模型

建立了确诊病例和疑似病例累计人数随时间变化的差分方程模型.通过对其求解和合理的假设讨论了确诊病例数在不同的阶段随时间变化的情况.进一步,用我们的模型来模拟北京疫情(2003.4.20—2003.5.29)的变化情况.说明我们的模型具有一定的实用性.     

SARS流行病传染动力学模型

建立了 SARS流行病的数学模型 ,根据部分国家和地区的 SARS疫情数据 ,计算出其模型参数 ,给出了各地 SARS疫情与模拟结果的比较图 ,模拟结果与实际疫情十分吻合 .分析了 SARS流行特征 ,并对疫情发展进行了预测 .     

尖劈吸波体的研究和微波暗室的模拟

对尖劈形状吸波体的吸波性能进行了研究,并对导弹导引仿真实验用的微波暗室的性能进行分析和仿真.首先对尖劈体的二维反射性能进行了研究,从单条波线反射的原理出发,得到波束平面反射的统计模型.单条波线的反射通过数值模拟得到;波束反射模型则通过对数值模拟的结果进行统计和拟合得到,最终用多项式表示.对于一些简单或特殊的情况,也给出了解析解.通过分析发现,三维反射和二维反射之间有明确的关系.这种关系可以由三维入射角和反射次数决定,而反射次数可以通过二维模型得到.据此将平面反射模型扩展为三维反射模型,从而得到尖劈形状吸波体的三维反射模型.无回波暗室用于模拟没有背景微波辐射的环境,其关键在于选择合适的吸波材料.基于微波反射通量平衡原理,建立了考虑暗室墙面各点之间的相互影响的耦合模型,从而可以求解出在指定的发射源照射之下墙面各点的辐射强度分布.对模型的求解精度和收敛性进行了验证.基于此模型,对一个导弹引导试验进行了数值模拟,推算出了使用两种不同吸波材料时静区接收到的微波信号的信噪比.     

基于新增确诊数据和光滑算子对FUDAN-CCDC模型反演算法的改进

2019年12月,新型冠状病毒肺炎(Corona-Virus-Disease,COVID-19)的疫情被人们识别认知,全世界都开始重视这个疫情.截至2020年4月21日24时,全球已累计确诊2 568 603例.科学地预测疫情发展趋势对疫情防控至关重要.FUDAN-CCDC模型用于国内疫情的预测产生了很好的效果,但是在用于欧美国家的疫情分析预测时效果不是很理想.本文对FUDAN-CCDC模型的优化目标进行了改进,考虑了新增数据的拟合,并考虑了欧美疫情数据的周末现象,提出对数据进行光滑预处理.新加入的两种可能的反演优化目标的改变,会对零增时间有较大的影响.在此基础上进一步发展的算法,可以得到更好的拟合和预测效果.     

基于一类时滞动力学系统对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的建模和预测

2019年12月,新型冠状病毒肺炎(novel coronavirus pneumonia, NCP)疫情从武汉开始暴发,几天内迅速传播到全国乃至海外.科学有效地掌控疫情发展对疫情防控至关重要.本文基于全国各级卫生健康委员会每日公布的累计确诊数和治愈数,提出一类基于时滞动力学系统的传染病动力学模型.在模型中引入时滞过程,用来描述病毒潜伏期和治疗周期.通过公布的疫情数据,首先准确反演模型的参数;其次有效地模拟目前疫情的发展,并预测疫情未来的趋势;最后分析各级政府防控措施手段的有效程度,并发现在现有的高效防控措施下,疫情将在近期好转.     

基于数值流形法的降雨入渗与坡面径流耦合算法研究

降雨时坡地的入渗-产流分析，是降雨型滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害机理研究中的重要课题之一.为实现边坡降雨-入渗-产流的全过程数值模拟，进一步提高计算效率，考虑将降雨入渗面视作坡面径流与坡体渗流的内部域，基于一维运动波方程和二维压力水头格式的Richards方程建立耦合模型，并推导出其总体控制方程，采用数值流形法(numerical manifold method, NMM)实现其数值求解，通过编制相应的计算程序分析了边坡降雨产流过程.数值分析结果表明：所建模型的计算结果与试验数据及前人模拟结果吻合良好，验证了该文模型及计算方法的有效性与可靠性；降雨强度越大，产流时间越早，坡面积水深度越大，对坡体内的水分分布影响范围越广.研究表明，所建模型能真实反映边坡降雨-入渗-产流全过程，可为降雨诱发的各类地质灾害分析提供计算依据.     

Assessing the effects of homosexuals and bisexuals on the intrinsic dynamics of HIV/AIDS in heterosexual settings

A deterministic compartmental sex-structured HIV/AIDS model for assessing the effects of homosexuals and bisexuals on the intrinsic dynamics of the disease in heterosexual settings in which homosexuality and bisexuality issues have remained taboo is presented. The epidemic threshold and equilibria for the model are determined and stabilities are investigated. Comprehensive qualitative analysis of the model including invariance of solutions and permanence are carried out. The epidemic threshold known as the basic reproductive number suggests that heterosexuality, homosexuality, and bisexuality influence the growth of the epidemic in HIV/AIDS affected populations and the partial reproductive number (homosexuality induced or heterosexuality and bisexuality induced) with the larger value influences the overall dynamics of the epidemic in a setting. Numerical simulations of the model show that as long as one of the partial reproductive numbers is greater than unity, the disease will exist in the population. We conclude from the study that homosexuality and bisexuality enlarge the epidemic in a heterosexual setting. The theoretical study highlights the need to carry out substantial research to map homosexuals and bisexuals as it has remained unclear as to what extent this group has contributed to the epidemic in heterosexual settings especially in southern Africa, which has remained the epidemiological locus of the epidemic.     

Local and global bifurcations in an SIRS epidemic model

This paper studies the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibria for the SIRS epidemic model with the saturated incidence rate, considering the factor of population dynamics such as the disease-related, the natural mortality and the constant recruitment of population. Analytical techniques are used to show, for some parameter values, the periodic solutions can arise through the Hopf bifurcation, which is important to carry different strategies for the controlling disease. Then the codimension-two bifurcation, i.e. BT bifurcation, is investigated by using a global qualitative method and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained at the degenerate equilibrium. Moreover, several numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis.     

脉冲接种作用下具有垂直传染的SIR模型的定性分析

研究了脉冲接种作用下的具有垂直传染的SIR传染病模型,得到了无病周期解的全局稳定性和基本再生数.通过数值仿真验证以上这些结论.     

Dynamics of SIS Epidemic Model with Varying Total Population and Multivaccination Control Strategies

In this paper, two susceptible‐infected‐susceptible epidemic models with varying total population size, continuous vaccination, and state‐dependent pulse vaccination are formulated to describe the transmission of infectious diseases, such as diphtheria, measles, rubella, pertussis, and so on. The first model incorporates the proportion of infected individuals in population as monitoring threshold value; we analytically show the existence and orbital asymptotical stability of positive order‐1 periodic solution for this control model. The other model determines control strategy by monitoring the proportion of susceptible individuals in population; we also investigate the existence and global orbital asymptotical stability of the disease‐free periodic solution. Theoretical results imply that the disease dies out in the second case. Finally, using realistic parameter values, we carry out some numerical simulations to illustrate the main theoretical results and the feasibility of state‐dependent pulse control strategy.     

Bifurcation analysis of a delayed epidemic model

In this paper, Hopf bifurcation for a delayed SIS epidemic model with stage structure and nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. Through theoretical analysis, we show the positive equilibrium stability and the conditions that Hopf bifurcation occurs. Applying the normal form theory and the center manifold argument, we derive the explicit formulas determining the properties of the bifurcating periodic solutions. In addition, we also study the effect of the inhibition effect on the properties of the bifurcating periodic solutions. To illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are also included.     

Threshold conditions for a discrete nonautonomous SIRS model

In this paper, a discrete nonautonomous SIRS epidemic model is studied. The model is constructed by applying a nonstandard finite difference scheme. Under weaker assumptions, the sufficient and necessary conditions on the permanence and strong persistence of the disease and the sufficient condition on the extinction of the disease are established. In order to illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are included in the end. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of awareness program and delay in the epidemic outbreak

In the present paper, an epidemic model has been proposed and analyzed to investigate the impact of awareness program and reporting delay in the epidemic outbreak. Awareness programs induce behavioral changes within the population, and divide the susceptible class into two subclasses, aware susceptible and unaware susceptible. The existence and the stability criteria of the equilibrium points are obtained in terms of the basic reproduction number. Considering time delay as the bifurcating parameter, the Hopf bifurcation analysis has been performed around the endemic equilibrium. The direction of the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are investigated by using the normal form theory and central manifold theorem. To verify the analytical results, comprehensive numerical simulations are carried out. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Model: Impact of Educational Programs and Abstinence in Sub-Saharan Africa

We formulate a deterministic HIV/AIDS model to theoretically investigate how counselling and testing coupled with the resulting decrease in sexual activity could affect the HIV epidemic in resource-limited communities. The threshold quantities are determined and stabilities analyzed. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations support the idea that increase in the number of sexually inactive HIV positive individuals who voluntarily abstain from sex has a positive impact on HIV/AIDS control. Results from this theoretical study suggest that effective counselling and testing have a great potential to partially control the epidemic (especially when HIV positive individuals either willingly withdraw from risky sexual activities or disclose their status beforehand) even in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Therefore, more needs to be done in resource-limited settings, such as sub-Saharan Africa, as far as the HIV/AIDS epidemic is concerned and a formalized information, education, and communication strategy should be given prominence in educational campaigns.     

A fractional order epidemic model and simulation for avian influenza dynamics

We present a nonlinear fractional order epidemic model to investigate the spreading dynamical behavior of the avian influenza. The population of the model contains susceptible individuals, asymptomatic but infective latent individuals, and infective individuals. We first establish the existence, uniqueness, nonnegativity, and positive invariance of the solution, then we study the reproduction number of the model and the stability of the disease‐free equilibrium. We observe that the reproduction number varies with the order of the fractional derivative ν. In terms of epidemics, this suggests that varying ν induces a change in the avian's epidemic status. Furthermore, we derive the sufficient conditions for the existence and the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, we carry out some numerical simulations to validate the analytical results. We find from simulations that the solution of the fractional order model tends to a stationary state over a longer period of time with decreasing the value of the fractional derivative, and the size of epidemic decreases with decreasing ν.     

Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic model with vaccination

In this article, we wish to investigate the dynamical behaviour of an SIRVS epidemic model with time-dependent coefficients. Under the quite weak assumptions, we give some new threshold conditions which determine whether or not the disease will go to extinction. The permanence and extinction of the infectious disease is studied. When the system degenerates into periodic or almost periodic system, the corresponding sharp threshold results are obtained for permanent endemicity versus extinction in terms of asymptotic time. In order to illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are also included in the end.